Strategy 2017 Forward Line

[The rabbi]

Peter Ryan, Dinny Navaratnam and Callum Twomey
have rated the Geelong forward line as the seventh best in the competition.
This is how they see the 2017 line up.

7. GEELONG
B: Jake Kolodjashnij, Tom Lonergan, Jed Bews
HB: Zach Tuohy, Harry Taylor, Jackson Thurlow
C: Mitch Duncan,Cam Guthrie, Steven Motlop
HF: Daniel Menzel, Lachie Henderson, Lincoln McCarthy
F: Nakia Cockatoo, Tom Hawkins, Scott Selwood
Foll: Zac Smith, Patrick Dangerfield, Joel Selwood
I/C: Sam Menegola, Andrew Mackie, Mark Blicavs, Josh Cowan

Depth
Midfield: Rhys Stanley, George Horlin-Smith, Esava Ratugolea, Jordan Murdoch, James Parsons, Darcy Lang, Jordan Cunico, Ryan Abbott, Matthew Hayball, Sam Simpson, Jack Henry
Forwards: Brandan Parfitt, Quinton Narkle, Jamaine Jones, Aaron Black, Wylie Buzza, Cory Gregson
Defenders: Tom Ruggles, Tom Stewart, Zach Guthrie, Timm House, Ryan Gardner, Mark O'Connor


Although the Cats were the third highest scoring team in 2016, their midfield failed at times to connect with the forwards. They still lack a natural crumbing, goalkicking forward but Nakia Cockatoo can become dangerous deep with Tom Hawkins creating a contest and both Daniel Menzel and Lachie Henderson being lead-up forwards. Scott Selwood and Lincoln McCarthy are similarly defensive, tackling types but forward lines will need someone to dampen running half-backs this season and Selwood shapes as that man. Steve Motlop kicked 38 goals but he's more valuable up the ground while Patrick Dangerfield might drift forward occasionally.

Posted for discussion.

 

[Cursed Cat]

Question marks everywhere when it comes to the forward line. the big one being, why can't we score more fluently given the amount of I50's the midfield generates?
I reckon most would agree that fault doesn't entirely lay with the forward group - but they are definitely complicit in the team's inability to get bang for it's forward line entry bucks. There's just a lack of synergy between the mids and forwards, a lack of system and trust.

Hawkins, Menzel and McCarthy are the only players who I'd have locked in for F50 roles at the start of 2017.

The non-KF roles are muddy; Dan Menzel is the ideal modern 3rd tall; good overhead and confident/competent when the ball hits the deck. But the management of his knees and associated secondary injury concerns might mean that we can never truly rely on him to produce week-in, week-out.

Linc McCarthy took some big strides last year and must be persisted with; I thought he started to find some consistency in the 2nd half of 2016 and also started hitting the scoreboard with some regularity.

After that it gets complicated - is Steve Motlop's spot in the 22 best served as a midfielder or as a forward? I'd like to see him spend more time in the F50 in 2017.

Nakia Cockatoo is raw and can execute poorly for a player with obvious skill - but he's also capable of winning one-on-one contests and is surprisingly adept overhead. For mine he plays forward with the odd stint up the ground.

The club has apparently given some small indication that Cunico might be considered for a half-forward role at some stage.

Who supports Hawkins?
Stanley? Taylor/Henderson? These three had a crack at various times in 2016 with mixed - mainly poor - results.

Draftees Timm House and Esava Ratugolea are obviously untried and not AFL-ready fitness-wise. But neither will be pushed around; if either got an opportunity I would at least be confident that they wouldn't be bullied as they are both big blokes.

It's all pretty murky and unclear - ultimately though I reckon personnel won't matter so much as system - if we get that ironed out then we start getting easier shots on goal.

I think we have the small/mid-sized forwards to make a better fist of things in 2017, provided they develop their games sufficiently.
Menzel, McCarthy, Motlop, Cockatoo and maybe Cunico or even Parfitt; it's not a bad group to work with.

The key forward situation is far more contentious though. I suspect the club will need to show some balls and try something a bit different.
Whether that means moving Hawkins to CHF and shoving Stanley (and sometimes Smith) in the goalsquare, or leaving one of Harry Taylor or Lachie Henderson up forward come what may, or even blooding one of the draftees and giving them some time to find their feet; one way or another something will have to change.
The conservative option is to keep Hawkins at FF and mainly try Stanley at CHF; I don't think this will work - I like Stanley as a player but I don't think he has the smarts to hold down CHF for any great length of time.

Overall I think our best bet is to clear out the F50 entirely and just let Matt Hayball work his magic.

 

[Art Vandelay_]

I'll be staggered if Henderson is our CHF but I do acknowledge that error is borne from their previous analysis of the defence so it's still the same error as then.

 

[DangerIsLove]

I'd play

FB: Stewart Lonergan Kolodjashnij
HB: Thuoy Henderson Thurlow
C: Guthrie Menengola S.Selwood
HF: Cockatoo Taylor Motlop
F: McCarthy Hawkins Menzel
R: Smith Dangerfield J.Selwood
I: Duncan Bews Stanley Lang

Lang has the italics because I'd like to see him spend some time in Midfield. This is a solid forward line for me, Stanley could even be a third tall but I think we will cope fine. Blicavs is next ruckman in but won't play forward for obvious reasons. We need a goal kicking coach our kicking for goal was hopeless.
As for the forward line, Narkle, Gregson next in for small forwards, Black next in for the galls, might even play depends on how his NAB Preseason Games go

 

[you pick one]

Question marks everywhere when it comes to the forward line. the big one being, why can't we score more fluently given the amount of I50's the midfield generates?
I reckon most would agree that fault doesn't entirely lay with the forward group - but they are definitely complicit in the team's inability to get bang for it's forward line entry bucks. There's just a lack of synergy between the mids and forwards, a lack of system and trust.

Hawkins, Menzel and McCarthy are the only players who I'd have locked in for F50 roles at the start of 2017.

The non-KF roles are muddy; Dan Menzel is the ideal modern 3rd tall; good overhead and confident/competent when the ball hits the deck. But the management of his knees and associated secondary injury concerns might mean that we can never truly rely on him to produce week-in, week-out.

Linc McCarthy took some big strides last year and must be persisted with; I thought he started to find some consistency in the 2nd half of 2016 and also started hitting the scoreboard with some regularity.

After that it gets complicated - is Steve Motlop's spot in the 22 best served as a midfielder or as a forward? I'd like to see him spend more time in the F50 in 2017.

Nakia Cockatoo is raw and can execute poorly for a player with obvious skill - but he's also capable of winning one-on-one contests and is surprisingly adept overhead. For mine he plays forward with the odd stint up the ground.

The club has apparently given some small indication that Cunico might be considered for a half-forward role at some stage.

Who supports Hawkins?
Stanley? Taylor/Henderson? These three had a crack at various times in 2016 with mixed - mainly poor - results.

Draftees Timm House and Esava Ratugolea are obviously untried and not AFL-ready fitness-wise. But neither will be pushed around; if either got an opportunity I would at least be confident that they wouldn't be bullied as they are both big blokes.

It's all pretty murky and unclear - ultimately though I reckon personnel won't matter so much as system - if we get that ironed out then we start getting easier shots on goal.

I think we have the small/mid-sized forwards to make a better fist of things in 2017, provided they develop their games sufficiently.
Menzel, McCarthy, Motlop, Cockatoo and maybe Cunico or even Parfitt; it's not a bad group to work with.

The key forward situation is far more contentious though. I suspect the club will need to show some balls and try something a bit different.
Whether that means moving Hawkins to CHF and shoving Stanley (and sometimes Smith) in the goalsquare, or leaving one of Harry Taylor or Lachie Henderson up forward come what may, or even blooding one of the draftees and giving them some time to find their feet; one way or another something will have to change.
The conservative option is to keep Hawkins at FF and mainly try Stanley at CHF; I don't think this will work - I like Stanley as a player but I don't think he has the smarts to hold down CHF for any great length of time.

Overall I think our best bet is to clear out the F50 entirely and just let Matt Hayball work his magic.

Terrific analysis CC nothing to add.

 

[pussygalore]

I can't believe this comment in the article:
"Steve Motlop kicked 38 goals but he's more valuable up the ground while Patrick Dangerfield might drift forward occasionally."

I'd definitely play Motlop in the Forward line ahead of Danger. Danger is crucial in the engine room.

Henderson in the CHF spot is not where I'd play him. Currently my preferred setup is:
HF: Cockatoo Taylor Motlop
F: McCarthy Hawkins Menzel
Although I still think that CHF spot is wide open as I think Taylor in defense makes us stronger.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Question marks everywhere when it comes to the forward line. the big one being, why can't we score more fluently given the amount of I50's the midfield generates?
I reckon most would agree that fault doesn't entirely lay with the forward group - but they are definitely complicit in the team's inability to get bang for it's forward line entry bucks. There's just a lack of synergy between the mids and forwards, a lack of system and trust.

Hawkins, Menzel and McCarthy are the only players who I'd have locked in for F50 roles at the start of 2017.

The non-KF roles are muddy; Dan Menzel is the ideal modern 3rd tall; good overhead and confident/competent when the ball hits the deck. But the management of his knees and associated secondary injury concerns might mean that we can never truly rely on him to produce week-in, week-out.

Linc McCarthy took some big strides last year and must be persisted with; I thought he started to find some consistency in the 2nd half of 2016 and also started hitting the scoreboard with some regularity.

After that it gets complicated - is Steve Motlop's spot in the 22 best served as a midfielder or as a forward? I'd like to see him spend more time in the F50 in 2017.

Nakia Cockatoo is raw and can execute poorly for a player with obvious skill - but he's also capable of winning one-on-one contests and is surprisingly adept overhead. For mine he plays forward with the odd stint up the ground.

The club has apparently given some small indication that Cunico might be considered for a half-forward role at some stage.

Who supports Hawkins?
Stanley? Taylor/Henderson? These three had a crack at various times in 2016 with mixed - mainly poor - results.

Draftees Timm House and Esava Ratugolea are obviously untried and not AFL-ready fitness-wise. But neither will be pushed around; if either got an opportunity I would at least be confident that they wouldn't be bullied as they are both big blokes.

It's all pretty murky and unclear - ultimately though I reckon personnel won't matter so much as system - if we get that ironed out then we start getting easier shots on goal.

I think we have the small/mid-sized forwards to make a better fist of things in 2017, provided they develop their games sufficiently.
Menzel, McCarthy, Motlop, Cockatoo and maybe Cunico or even Parfitt; it's not a bad group to work with.

The key forward situation is far more contentious though. I suspect the club will need to show some balls and try something a bit different.
Whether that means moving Hawkins to CHF and shoving Stanley (and sometimes Smith) in the goalsquare, or leaving one of Harry Taylor or Lachie Henderson up forward come what may, or even blooding one of the draftees and giving them some time to find their feet; one way or another something will have to change.
The conservative option is to keep Hawkins at FF and mainly try Stanley at CHF; I don't think this will work - I like Stanley as a player but I don't think he has the smarts to hold down CHF for any great length of time.

Overall I think our best bet is to clear out the F50 entirely and just let Matt Hayball work his magic.

Hawkins has never been an aerobic mobile player at the best of times and given he has had an interrupted pre season with knee surgery he is unlikely to get mobile enough to play CHF. Smith is not mobile enough to be a key forward. Similarly people suggesting we play Menzel as the 2nd KPF are being unrealistic I think as we can't put that load on him. We can't use kids like Buzza or Ratugolea at CHF in 2017 when we are in a flag window. Hawkins has to play FF and we have to use a mature player at CHF.

So our CHF needs to be one of Stanley Black House Taylor or Henderson (also possibly Blicavs if he is moved from midfield). I think all those guys will be trialled at CHF in the pre season and we will see who works best. None of those options thrill me (except House who I think is a pre season or two off AFL level though) but the Dogs won the flag with Zaine Cordy at CHF who is ordinary so we just need to find the right stopgap player at CHF they don't need to star. I think the only certain starters in the front half are Hawkins Menzel and Motlop and then the second KPF. The other one or two spots will be filled by a small forward-this is McCarthy's spot given Gregson will have a slow start to the year with a foot injury (I actually rate Gregson as the better player when both are fit but for now McCarthy is fine in that spot he is a good player) and another spot or two for forwards who can apply some speed and forward pressure (to compensate for the fact that neither Hawkins or Menzel are quick) but who can also play 30 % of the game in the midfield for rotations (Caddy had about a 70/30 forward/midfield split). To me the most likely two players that fit that bill are Cockatoo and Lang but I wouldn't rule out Murdoch here if he regains form.

The bigger issue with our forward line is we need better delivery from midfield and better composure and conversion on goal from the forwards regardless of which personnel we actually use in there.

 

[Cursed Cat]

Hawkins has never been an aerobic mobile player at the best of times and given he has had an interrupted pre season with knee surgery he is unlikely to get mobile enough to play CHF. Smith is not mobile enough to be a key forward. Similarly people suggesting we play Menzel as the 2nd KPF are being unrealistic I think as we can't put that load on him. We can't use kids like Buzza or Ratugolea at CHF in 2017 when we are in a flag window. Hawkins has to play FF and we have to use a mature player at CHF.

So our CHF needs to be one of Stanley Black House Taylor or Henderson (also possibly Blicavs if he is moved from midfield). I think all those guys will be trialled at CHF in the pre season and we will see who works best. None of those options thrill me (except House who I think is a pre season or two off AFL level though) but the Dogs won the flag with Zaine Cordy at CHF who is ordinary so we just need to find the right stopgap player at CHF they don't need to star. I think the only certain starters in the front half are Hawkins Menzel and Motlop and then the second KPF. The other one or two spots will be filled by a small forward-this is McCarthy's spot given Gregson will have a slow start to the year with a foot injury (I actually rate Gregson as the better player when both are fit but for now McCarthy is fine in that spot he is a good player) and another spot or two for forwards who can apply some speed and forward pressure (to compensate for the fact that neither Hawkins or Menzel are quick) but who can also play 30 % of the game in the midfield for rotations (Caddy had about a 70/30 forward/midfield split). To me the most likely two players that fit that bill are Cockatoo and Lang but I wouldn't rule out Murdoch here if he regains form.

The bigger issue with our forward line is we need better delivery from midfield and better composure and conversion on goal from the forwards regardless of which personnel we actually use in there.

add general positioning and organization within the F50; but yeah the bolded is definitely the most important aspect when considering ways to improve our forward output

 

[cynical]

It'll be another year of who will be our CHF or lets play without one and see how our structure breaks down in finals.

I'm hoping Stanley just plays as no2 ruck and Taylor plays CHF for the year or until House or one of the others pass him.

What I think will happen is they will try a whole bunch of things and still not know what to do.

Hawkins/Taylor as KPFs
Menzel/Black as 3rd talls
3 other smalls who can apply pressure and be a bit dangerous

 

[Cursed Cat]

It'll be another year of who will be our CHF or lets play without one and see how our structure breaks down in finals.

I'm hoping Stanley just plays as no2 ruck and Taylor plays CHF for the year or until House or one of the others pass him.

What I think will happen is they will try a whole bunch of things and still not know what to do.

Hawkins/Taylor as KPFs
Menzel/Black as 3rd talls
3 other smalls who can apply pressure and be a bit dangerous

unfortunately I suspect this will be how it pans out too ...

 

[you pick one]

It'll be another year of who will be our CHF or lets play without one and see how our structure breaks down in finals.

I'm hoping Stanley just plays as no2 ruck and Taylor plays CHF for the year or until House or one of the others pass him.

What I think will happen is they will try a whole bunch of things and still not know what to do.

Hawkins/Taylor as KPFs
Menzel/Black as 3rd talls
3 other smalls who can apply pressure and be a bit dangerous

I don't get any joy out of being critical of the club.But I can't argue with that, it has cost us already IMHO and on face value could very well do so again.

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

I can see Abe kicking 30 goals this year after another full pre-season.

 

[catempire]

See the sig.

 

[dazbroncos]

See the sig.

Im not much for this # thingy...

but for #banthebombtoHawk ... i'll make an exception....

GO Catters

 

[Turbocat]

Hawkins has never been an aerobic mobile player at the best of times and given he has had an interrupted pre season with knee surgery he is unlikely to get mobile enough to play CHF. Smith is not mobile enough to be a key forward. Similarly people suggesting we play Menzel as the 2nd KPF are being unrealistic I think as we can't put that load on him. We can't use kids like Buzza or Ratugolea at CHF in 2017 when we are in a flag window. Hawkins has to play FF and we have to use a mature player at CHF.

So our CHF needs to be one of Stanley Black House Taylor or Henderson (also possibly Blicavs if he is moved from midfield). I think all those guys will be trialled at CHF in the pre season and we will see who works best. None of those options thrill me (except House who I think is a pre season or two off AFL level though) but the Dogs won the flag with Zaine Cordy at CHF who is ordinary so we just need to find the right stopgap player at CHF they don't need to star. I think the only certain starters in the front half are Hawkins Menzel and Motlop and then the second KPF. The other one or two spots will be filled by a small forward-this is McCarthy's spot given Gregson will have a slow start to the year with a foot injury (I actually rate Gregson as the better player when both are fit but for now McCarthy is fine in that spot he is a good player) and another spot or two for forwards who can apply some speed and forward pressure (to compensate for the fact that neither Hawkins or Menzel are quick) but who can also play 30 % of the game in the midfield for rotations (Caddy had about a 70/30 forward/midfield split). To me the most likely two players that fit that bill are Cockatoo and Lang but I wouldn't rule out Murdoch here if he regains form.

The bigger issue with our forward line is we need better delivery from midfield and better composure and conversion on goal from the forwards regardless of which personnel we actually use in there.

I believe we went down the "Freo" path last year , a method that has shown it can generate wins thru season but has generally failed against the best when it counts. Controlling the ball from the back half to prevent embarrassing our backmen getting caught out of position when they would roll the dice and run forward, so we seemed to be more focused on tempo , using the boundary in a way that could generally get the ball forward but frequently developed poorer chances. Add that we removed players of elite creativity in the last couple of years , it was on Menzels reappearance that gave our forwardline a better chance of manufacturing goals. Add when Linc played well , we then looked more balanced. One our best games for the year was against the Crows who also were aggressive in getting the ball forward , it allowed us to run it into ours.

So sure more emphasis on speed into the forwardline would be good ...but as you say not at the cost execution . We need players that finish of that run forward by either kicking the goal or hitting someone up. Even if we just increase speed , it will give our forwards more of a chance. Hawkins , one out 30 out can flummox defensive sets and it should create more chances for small forwards.

On the AFL site forwardline... having at 7 .. I think this is rather an overrate of us. Henderson at CHF , shows how dishevelled our forwardline is... He played most of his footy , his best footy back last year. I think GC forwardline looks just as dangerous if not more with Lynch and Wright. Cockatoo potentially could change it for us I guess.

 

[fpm84]

Looking forward to seeing Black in the practice games and reckon there's a spot in the best 22 come round one if he wants it badly enough.

 

[catstragic]

I suspect that having some continuity in the line up is probably going to help us more than anything.
We have had a huge player turn over in the last couple of years, and some of the players who have left were great decision makers. They have been replaced by talent, but its going to take a while before they understand each other the way the old firm did.

While we don't have a standout HF player we have several who are at least serviceable in the role, and we still have a KPF who will draw multiple defenders. Hawkins and Menzel should be 90% forward, I cant think of any other player who demand a spot in the front half, so I guess it comes down to working up a rotation between forward and the midfield.

All the players in our midfield group are pretty handy goal kickers, so loading up on small defensive forwards to block the ball inside 50 could work. Its an area that the team was pretty decent at in 2016 and if they can lift their forward pressure even more it would really start to crush defenses.

Having more precise disposal out of the back 50 from Tongue and Thurlow should also increase our in 50 efficiency as we should have greater control over the ball through the midfield and more time to pick out a target in attack.

 

[Bobby_]

Looking forward to seeing Black in the practice games and reckon there's a spot in the best 22 come round one if he wants it badly enough.

not at CHF there's not. He's a twig. At least Kersten had some size and strength about him.
Black will dominate at VFL level but fail to make an impact at senior level.

The football club needed to identify this dilemma quite a few years ago (I know some people on here certainly did) and try to do something about it in the national draft instead of opting to pluck injury prone has-been's from other clubs.
We are now stuck with a power forward who is fading away in the blink of an eye and a couple of champion centre half back's having to play a position they never made a name for themselves in the first place.

 

[Landgraft]

Honestly I almost wonder if Black isn't the understudy to Menzel instead of a replacement for Kersten. House looks more like the replacement for Kersten to me, get Black more mobile and skill focused to provide a spark up forward with some aerial presence instead of being another key.

 

[The rabbi]

Hawkins has to play FF and we have to use a mature player at CHF........

So our CHF needs to be one of Stanley Black House Taylor or Henderson (also possibly Blicavs if he is moved from midfield). I think all those guys will be trialled at CHF in the pre season and we will see who works best. None of those options thrill me (except House who I think is a pre season or two off AFL level though) but the Dogs won the flag with Zaine Cordy at CHF who is ordinary so we just need to find the right stopgap player at CHF they don't need to star.

I will be interested to see what they do with House in the pre-season games.
He does have the ability to take one grab marks and in the VFL he seemed to be able to find a patch of space in front of himself to lead into and mark. He also seems to be a reasonable kick.

We know that Harry Taylor can fill a KP forward spot if called upon. It would be nice to trial House as another option to Harry and Stanley.

 

[Bobby_]

We know that Harry Taylor can fill a KP forward spot if called upon. It would be nice to trial House as another option to Harry and Stanley.

The major worry now is his lack of any foot speed whatsoever. He is quite a lot slower than Hawkins and that's saying something.
I would argue Taylor is our slowest player on the list (including Horlin-Smith) and at centre half forward, if he isn't marking it, he is going to be getting shown up when the ball hits the deck as we have already seen on occasions in the recent finals campaign. Most of the best teams have explosive talls. A forward setup of Hawkins and Taylor would be similar to the Bartel, Kelly, Mackie conundrum we had down back a couple years ago.

We may have to bite the bullet and just hope Hawkins can kick another 60 goals and Menzel & McCarthy remain injury-free for another full year.

 

[Willo_]

The major worry now is his lack of any foot speed whatsoever. He is quite a lot slower than Hawkins and that's saying something.
I would argue Taylor is our slowest player on the list (including Horlin-Smith) and at centre half forward, if he isn't marking it, he is going to be getting shown up when the ball hits the deck as we have already seen on occasions in the recent finals campaign. Most of the best teams have explosive talls. A forward setup of Hawkins and Taylor would be similar to the Bartel, Kelly, Mackie conundrum we had down back a couple years ago.

We may have to bite the bullet and just hope Hawkins can kick another 60 goals and Menzel & McCarthy remain injury-free for another full year.

I'm pretty sure he is really quick over the first 20m Bobby... I have a feeling he was up there for the club there.

I could be just making stuff up of course, but it is why they are happy playing him on smalls as well

 

[wcadams88]

I'm pretty sure he is really quick over the first 20m Bobby... I have a feeling he was up there for the club there.

I could be just making stuff up of course, but it is why they are happy playing him on smalls as well

Top 3 from an article I can seem to find, was from a while back

 

[Partridge]

I'm pretty sure he is really quick over the first 20m Bobby... I have a feeling he was up there for the club there.

I could be just making stuff up of course, but it is why they are happy playing him on smalls as well

It all depends how much speed he is either losing or has lost. As we know but are reluctant to understand, the end can come very quickly. Particularly for bigger and slower players.

 

[Willo_]

It all depends how much speed he is either losing or has lost. As we know but are reluctant to understand, the end can come very quickly. Particularly for bigger and slower players.

Absolutely, Taylor has the advantage of being the ultimate preparer and professional, he would know and work the angles better than most to make up for a lack of speed if/when it happens.

I can actually see him turning into a shut down defender more so in his later years, inheriting the role from Doms.

(Not that this has anything to do with the forward line)