AFL 2017 - AFL Round 5

[TheScream]

I got on them too earlier in the week, 2.2U -18.5 . Middle is very tempting atm, I might wait and see though. Carlton are pretty average and I feel the swans could bounce back this week. I might even stick 1.1U on the blues +39.5 and middle part of it.

I'm not really a middling guy but yeah it is ultra tempting especially looking at melbourne's forecast this week! You're right though, the swans could belt them by 60... what to do

 

[HeavyPop]

Agreed with the thoughts on the Dees. It's where the value seems to be.

Melb 1-39
Jesse Hogan 3+ goals
@ 5.74

Damn, thought I had this wrapped up when Hogan kicked his 3rd and put the Dees out to 23 points.

I'm considering jumping on both the Pies 1-19 (4.00) and Essendon 1-19 (4.25) tomorrow. I can't pick a winner, but with the weather and neither side being in great form, I can't see either of them running away with the game.

 

[X_box_X]

Were these bets posted? I see you won about 1200 on the middle ? what else

Same middle. Just kept loading up. I posted them to give you and others a heads up. I hope you got on.

 

[X_box_X]

GWS 1Q -5.5 looks solid.

GWS rank first in opening quarters while the Bulldogs rank 17th.

 

[TheScream]

90% precipitation in melbourne tomorrow... 159.5 is surely too high? I would probably set the total there in dry weather with these two teams

 

[Keystone agony]

#guessing

Look at the hitout diifferentials mate between Rich vs Opp round 1-4 and then see if theirs a difference in round 5 and how much the difference is.

2 men off early was the reason they were over run.

Agree to disagree with you

 

[langdon19]

90% precipitation in melbourne tomorrow... 159.5 is surely too high? I would probably set the total there in dry weather with these two teams

Dry weather low 170's

 

[langdon19]

Dry weather low 170's

Which is why I took under 184.5 when it opened

 

[maskmcgee]

But anyway, Richmond have played Carlton, Collingwood, west coast and Brisbane. Hardly a stellar form indication.

Plus, they tend to struggle to defend the teams that attack directly through the centre of the ground. And i don't believe they've changed their game style greatly this year.

Bullshit posturing aside, I have this game capped at a 1 point win to melbourne.

Richmond -11.5

Nailed it.

 

[VK92]

Cheers for the info yesterday.

Managed to get 2.5U TGS U 175.5 @ $1.80 (TAB)

Will look to middle today. Any idea if there is further rain forecast for tonight?

Missed the crazy line movement for a better middle.
Anyway, TGS O168.5 @ $1.87 (WH)- 2U.

Nice. I got the TAB U175.5 and T.T O161.5

Good work mate. Jane Bunn and the BOM really let me down. The wild weather hit after the game finished! Spewing I didnt take the earlier 157.5.

 

[milpod]

Nailed it.

Wow bragging about -11.5 Shroodie

 

[mookieb]

Well I thought a bet on the demons was certainly the correct one. Two big men down and Watts diverted to the ruck and up by 20 points whilst getting slaughtered in hitouts? Apparently Petracca was hobbled as well. Don't think they fell asleep like the Freo game - given the conditions and injuries they simply tired and got run over.

Unders and Dusty bets got up, but it should have been much better.

 

[targett]

20mil of rain has already swept through melbourne could be clearing nicely.Im taking the over 156 TopBetta look to middle pre game.

 

[CarterS]

Is the Round 6 thread locked until Round 5 is over?

Anyway Essendon are out to 2.50 and I don't mind that. Still haven't got a great reading on where these sides are at.

Essendon @ Adelaide oval, lost but in heavy 10 conditions, I'll forgive the last two. Collingwood inconsistent as well. Many unknowns.

 

[Vhaluus]

The only thing stopping me from betting on Essendon is how poorly they performed in the wet vs Carlton

 

[CarterS]

The only thing stopping me from betting on Essendon is how poorly they performed in the wet vs Carlton

Tricky one isn't it. I'm willing to forgive wet form a little bit.

 

[Vhaluus]

Tricky one isn't it. I'm willing to forgive wet form a little bit.

But this could easily be another wet game.

 

[CarterS]

But this could easily be another wet game.

Probably why I'll stay out I do like taking outsiders in wet games though.

 

[applaps]

Thinking about taking a massive line here at short odds and multying with some of my nrl picks.

Essendon +36.6 $1.20
Or
Under 187.5 $1.27

Thoughts?



On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Vhaluus]

Thinking about taking a massive line here at short odds and multying with some of my nrl picks.

Essendon +36.6 $1.20
Or
Under 187.5 $1.27

Thoughts?



On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

Surely the genius of Richmond vs Melbourne can work out his own bets?

 

[applaps]

Surely the genius of Richmond vs Melbourne can work out his own bets?

Someone's a bit sour. I had a very strong read and opinion on that game. I don't on this one, hence why I am asking advice.

As I said, I'm a long time reader first time poster. I only posted as I saw a lot of stuff I strongly disagreed with, and thought I could help out by offering some of my thoughts.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Oraz]

0.25u Goddard Anzac Day Medalist @ 21.00

Big game player, likes these conditions

 

[Mazza12346]

reckon grundy has a big game and is a chance for the medal, stoppage-filled game should mean he is around the ball a bit
Worth a crack @ 18s

 

[Oraz]

reckon grundy has a big game and is a chance for the medal, stoppage-filled game should mean he is around the ball a bit
Worth a crack @ 18s

Good bet imo,

Leuenberger (Essendon's ruckman) is an absolute truck around the ground, Grundy should be able to find a lot of the ball around the ground

 

[Mazza12346]

Good bet imo,

Leuenberger (Essendon's ruckman) is an absolute truck around the ground, Grundy should be able to find a lot of the ball around the ground

Yep i dont normally touch these player medal bets, but i honestly reckon he should be 7-1 or 8-1.

Around the ground he will destroy leuenberger and if the game is full of stoppages (due to the wet weather) he will get a ton of the ball

From quick memory in a couple of these wet weather games he has had monster games