Certified Legendary Thread Squiggle 2017

[beert]

At this rate, Brisbane might be back on the chart soon. Nice squiggle from them this week.

 

[baz_machine]

Squiggle PSA: On holidays this week so no post from me until after Round 13!

As a Richmond man, I would have thought you'd book your holidays for September

 

[Yakker]

watch the bombers fly up, up.....

 

[Seeds]

I checked it last year for wins and lines and it performed not so great, was about -5% profit on turnover and 4% chance of making profit over a season with pretty consistent trends.

I put it down to while being an excellent visual and simple display of team quality there's too many factors affecting results rather than just what the squiggle displays. Also most rating systems be it bookmakers/ people making the prices will basically use a type of squiggle as a base rating and then much more complex stuff overlapping it as their goal isn't communication, rather accuracy.

What I did note was it broke even/profited on home team bets for that particular set.

Boom. Shall we end this thread now or will all the squiggle lovers continue to live in their delusion.

 

[SJ]

Boom. Shall we end this thread now or will all the squiggle lovers continue to live in their delusion.

The Squiggle was not designed to be a betting model nor the best tipster, so I don't understand why you'd expect it to be.

 

[Monopoly_Man]

Boom. Shall we end this thread now or will all the squiggle lovers continue to live in their delusion.

Most of us aren't here to try and make a cheap buck, salvation lies within my friend. The squiggle provides nothing more and nothing less than what you need in that moment.

On SM-G900I using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Seeds]

The Squiggle was not designed to be a betting model nor the best tipster, so I don't understand why you'd expect it to be.

so if its point is not to predict the future then what is it and why are all these predictions in it?

 

[Seeds]

Most of us aren't here to try and make a cheap buck, salvation lies within my friend. The squiggle provides nothing more and nothing less than what you need in that moment.

On SM-G900I using BigFooty.com mobile app

Sounding very religious in this post.

 

[Monopoly_Man]

Sounding very religious in this post.

Very perceptive! Not much gets past you Seeds!

On SM-G900I using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[SJ]

so if its point is not to predict the future then what is it and why are all these predictions in it?

All models are wrong, but some are useful.

 

[Xtreme]

watch the bombers fly up, up.....

And the rest of us spew

 

[YippeeYiYeo]

Wish we could see sn animated Tower of Power for the last 12 months of Hawthorn.

 

[ibd77]

Squiggle will hate Ports this week.

 

[Seeds]

All models are wrong, but some are useful.

True. But how is this one useful if it has no predictive power? If it's just good at explaining the past than what is it's use.

 

[MightyTiger]

As a Richmond man, I would have thought you'd book your holidays for September

 

[SJ]

True. But how is this one useful if it has no predictive power? If it's just good at explaining the past than what is it's use.

It has some predictive power as it easily beats a coin flip (and probably a fair stack of football tipsters).

But it's never watched a game of footy. It couldn't even name a single player. It doesn't know who is in, who is out, who is traded or drafted.

All it knows are past scores and venues. And with simply that, it gives a pretty good account for itself in predictions but primarily was designed to give a superior visualisation of both current and past team quality in comparison to the ladder (which would otherwise be the best we had).

 

[radiojake]

True. But how is this one useful if it has no predictive power? If it's just good at explaining the past than what is it's use.

I just think it's rather interesting

I'm not a gambler though and I suck at footy tips because I normally pick who I want to win (i.e always pick Crows, rarely pick Port, etc)

 

[deflated]

True. But how is this one useful if it has no predictive power? If it's just good at explaining the past than what is it's use.

It is a tool; you can use or misuse it however you want. The squiggle provides a expected outcome with an assumption that the context is unchanging - teams don't suffer injuries, home ground advantages are equal, weather is always good, etc. You can supply the missing context. If Richmond are travelling to Perth on a short week with Rance and Reiwoldt injured you know the Squiggle will overrate their chances so look elsewhere.

 

[TheMcManusNose]

True. But how is this one useful if it has no predictive power? If it's just good at explaining the past than what is it's use.

Well I mean it evidently has predictive power greater than that of random chance.

But as others have mentioned what is really interesting about Squiggle is that on any give year it can typically beat the predictions of a large amount of football punditry and more sophisticated models that include a greater amount of data, simply by knowing the scores and the location of all of the games. That's it, that's all. There's some other interesting data you can tease out long term to do with the balance of attack and defence where it functions as an excellent visualisation tool.

 

[GreyCrow]

so if its point is not to predict the future then what is it and why are all these predictions in it?

Let ya in on a secret bud (looks around furtively) psst come closer, nah closer, its to trigger people like yaself bud, shh keep it to yaself

 

[Rory Walkerfield]

Mods - thread needs the "Certified Legendary Thread" tag please. Too difficult to find otherwise.

 

[Rotayjay]

Another defensive Squiggle erection might be coming up - this time for the Dees.

 

[GreyCrow]

I think Final Siren has extended his holiday another week

 

[WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot]

Bulldogs predicted to miss the finals now.

 

[BlueTucker456]

Am I the only one who just likes watching the squiggles move around each game. I don't care if it's accurate or not tbh.