Certified Legendary Thread Squiggle 2017

(Log in to remove this ad.)

Final Siren

Mr Squiggle
Aug 18, 2009
3,821
16,203
AFL Club
Richmond
2017 Round 13

Bula! I'm back from Fiji. It was really nice. I learned to walk really slowly, like I had nowhere in particular to be, because I didn't. It was like a parallel universe where everything was just fine. I even listened to the start of the Richmond v Sydney game in Nadi Airport and we were 5 or 6 goals up. Then I landed in Melbourne and everything was back to normal.


Animated!


The real story right now is that the door to Top 4 is wiiide open. There's a real chance that 14 wins might be enough to break in, and that's a low number. Last year Adelaide missed out with 16 wins and a percentage of 138%, and West Coast, also with 16 wins, finished 6th. Only once this decade has the 4th-placed team held fewer than 16 wins: Sydney with 15.5 in 2013.

But before then -- before the arrival of the expansion easy-beats in Gold Coast and GWS -- teams commonly made Top 4 with 15, 14, or even 13 wins. We're looking at a return to that.

Which means that although the most likely Top 4 remains the same as it's been for a while -- Adelaide, GWS, Geelong, and Port Adelaide -- we aren't far away from a world in which Melbourne squeeze in there, or Richmond, or one of a number of other teams.


The Ladder Predictor tips Port for 4th with 13 wins, but I reckon someone will string together a chain of wins to drive that number a little higher.

Here's the Tower of Power for the last two weeks, since I missed last week. You can see that there's no more flattening out at the top, as things have really opened up with the Bulldogs and Port sliding while Melbourne, West Coast and Sydney have pushed up.


It was a huge week for Melbourne, who comprehensively dismantled the Dogs and bounced right up into contention.

To a lesser degree, it was also good for West Coast in beating the Cats, and Carlton in overpowering Gold Coast in Queensland.

The other big change was Carlton vacating a likely bottom-2 spot with wins over GWS and Gold Coast. Hawthorn are most likely to take it, but it could easily go to Fremantle, Gold Coast, or North Melbourne, who have fallen away badly.

Richmond v Sydney was interesting, because they're two teams the squiggle rates quite differently to public perception: it's always liked Sydney for finals even when they were 16th, and still doesn't think too much of Richmond. The game actually played out extremely close to prediction, with squiggle tipping 73-80 and reality coming in at 71-80.

While it's fascinating to imagine a ladder with Richmond's close wins reversed, with the Tigers sitting two games clear with 11 wins and 1 loss, the fact is they haven't been able to beat Fremantle (in Melbourne), a Bulldogs outfit that's 6-6, and 12th-placed Sydney (also in Melbourne). They also haven't put anyone away other than Brisbane, North Melbourne, and Carlton. Instead what they've mostly done is fight out two- and three- goal wins against middle-ish teams like Collingwood, West Coast (in Melbourne), Melbourne, and Essendon.

To the squiggle's cold, unfeeling eye, this looks like a mid-tier team with a helpful draw, which has a solid defense but lacks the ability to score freely enough to be a genuine flag threat. If the Tigers can obliterate someone, that will change. But at the moment, it's too easy to explain their results as within-the-margin-of-error of what you'd expect from a team that's somewhere around the middle.

And because attack wins flags, the Tigers still look abysmal on flagpole, and the Crows still flap highest:


Live squiggle!

Links to other online footy analysis!
 

chazwazza

Norm Smith Medallist
Aug 15, 2012
7,706
12,139
Thebarton
AFL Club
Adelaide
Other Teams
Sturt Football Club
2017 Round 13

Bula! I'm back from Fiji. It was really nice. I learned to walk really slowly, like I had nowhere in particular to be, because I didn't. It was like a parallel universe where everything was just fine. I even listened to the start of the Richmond v Sydney game in Nadi Airport and we were 5 or 6 goals up. Then I landed in Melbourne and everything was back to normal.


Animated!


The real story right now is that the door to Top 4 is wiiide open. There's a real chance that 14 wins might be enough to break in, and that's a low number. Last year Adelaide missed out with 16 wins and a percentage of 138%, and West Coast, also with 16 wins, finished 6th. Only once this decade has the 4th-placed team held fewer than 16 wins: Sydney with 15.5 in 2013.

But before then -- before the arrival of the expansion easy-beats in Gold Coast and GWS -- teams commonly made Top 4 with 15, 14, or even 13 wins. We're looking at a return to that.

Which means that although the most likely Top 4 remains the same as it's been for a while -- Adelaide, GWS, Geelong, and Port Adelaide -- we aren't far away from a world in which Melbourne squeeze in there, or Richmond, or one of a number of other teams.


The Ladder Predictor tips Port for 4th with 13 wins, but I reckon someone will string together a chain of wins to drive that number a little higher.

Here's the Tower of Power for the last two weeks, since I missed last week. You can see that there's no more flattening out at the top, as things have really opened up with the Bulldogs and Port sliding while Melbourne, West Coast and Sydney have pushed up.


It was a huge week for Melbourne, who comprehensively dismantled the Dogs and bounced right up into contention.

To a lesser degree, it was also good for West Coast in beating the Cats, and Carlton in overpowering Gold Coast in Queensland.

The other big change was Carlton vacating a likely bottom-2 spot with wins over GWS and Gold Coast. Hawthorn are most likely to take it, but it could easily go to Fremantle, Gold Coast, or North Melbourne, who have fallen away badly.

Richmond v Sydney was interesting, because they're two teams the squiggle rates quite differently to public perception: it's always liked Sydney for finals even when they were 16th, and still doesn't think too much of Richmond. The game actually played out extremely close to prediction, with squiggle tipping 73-80 and reality coming in at 71-80.

While it's fascinating to imagine a ladder with Richmond's close wins reversed, with the Tigers sitting two games clear with 11 wins and 1 loss, the fact is they haven't been able to beat Fremantle (in Melbourne), a Bulldogs outfit that's 6-6, and 12th-placed Sydney (also in Melbourne). They also haven't put anyone away other than Brisbane, North Melbourne, and Carlton. Instead what they've mostly done is fight out two- and three- goal wins against middle-ish teams like Collingwood, West Coast (in Melbourne), Melbourne, and Essendon.

To the squiggle's cold, unfeeling eye, this looks like a mid-tier team with a helpful draw, which has a solid defense but lacks the ability to score freely enough to be a genuine flag threat. If the Tigers can obliterate someone, that will change. But at the moment, it's too easy to explain their results as within-the-margin-of-error of what you'd expect from a team that's somewhere around the middle.

And because attack wins flags, the Tigers still look abysmal on flagpole, and the Crows still flap highest:


Live squiggle!

Links to other online footy analysis!
Glad you can find happiness outside of footy, because sure as hell you won't find in footy as a Tiges supporter. Sorry.
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

LeverPuller

BigFooty Tanker
Jun 23, 2011
31,292
34,519
Q49, Olympic Stand
AFL Club
Melbourne
Other Teams
Newcastle United Seattle Seahawks
Look at Melbourne go!



Lock them in for finals and premiership smokey. Lid should definitely be off if they beat us this weekend.
In all seriousness, if we win the next two I'm calling the club and getting the Grand Final ticket guarantee.
 

Forward Press

Premium Platinum
Jul 5, 2011
29,547
40,968
Perth
AFL Club
West Coast
Other Teams
Man Utd
In all seriousness, if we win the next two I'm calling the club and getting the Grand Final ticket guarantee.
I understand the caution but you belted Adelaide at home and the reigning premiers last weekend, lock in finals. Top 4 is definitely feasible too, your draw is relatively soft and if you snap a 17 game losing streak here then that should give your guys so much confidence for the rest of the year.
 

WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot

Norm Smith Medallist
Oct 26, 2012
8,528
12,476
AFL Club
Adelaide
Melbourne with some solid flagpole movement!

The Crows squeezed up into the top 4 nicely in the last 2 weeks of the Tower of Power. Almost all other top 8 contenders stretched out over the same period.
 

The Gong

Norm Smith Medallist
Oct 24, 2012
5,592
10,850
AFL Club
Sydney
Other Teams
Northern Districts Tigers
Sydney still flying under the radar but Squiggle knows we're coming. What the hell happened that first six weeks? Unprecedented.
 

Sando22

Norm Smith Medallist
Feb 3, 2016
8,207
7,714
AFL Club
Melbourne
Melbourne with some solid flagpole movement!

The Crows squeezed up into the top 4 nicely in the last 2 weeks of the Tower of Power. Almost all other top 8 contenders stretched out over the same period.
I'll have some serious flagpole movement if we manage to overcome the Eagles this weekend. (I don't think we will).
 

Final Siren

Mr Squiggle
Aug 18, 2009
3,821
16,203
AFL Club
Richmond
Final Siren: when was the last time Melbourne had such a high rating?
Not long ago! Only Round 21 last year, after another Port Adelaide belting (54-94).

The difference is that back then, there were another 8 teams ahead of Melbourne, because it was late in the year, and quite a few were a long way ahead, in premiership territory. Right now there are only 5 teams ahead of the Demons, plus the Bulldogs, and none are really dominating.
 

Top Bottom