Will we miss finals?

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Scorpus said:
Carlton - 50/50
Western Bulldogs - 50/50
Melbourne - 50/50
Geelong - Comfortable loss
Collingwood - Win
Port Adelaide - 50/50
Essendon - Win
Sydney - 50/50
West Coast - 50/50

I'd say on current form we'd lose every 50/50
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Long distant predictions can change after one really bad or really good performance.

Port is the only win I see there.

I think we'll beat Bulldogs.(only because at AO) But 50/50ish

Melbourne in Darwin - no nup. loss

I actually think we can beat Geelong.(only because at AO) But 50/50

I fear we'll lose to Carlton, Collingwood and Essendon. Their games are all picking up while ours is spiralling downward, us having only won 3 of the last 7. But perhaps factor in at least one of these as a win.- more likely to be Carlton I think.

Sydney - Think we'll beat them at AO again if we can get some form back. But 50/50ish

West Coast at Subi. Nope. Not even if we started now.

Optimistic view - 5 wins (Port,Dogs, Cats, one of Coll/Carl/Ess, Sydney

Pessimistic view - 2 wins (Port and one of Carl/Coll/Ess)

Realistic view - 3-4 wins

sad but true.
 

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Guys guys guys....... of course we will make the finals. We will pull out some brilliant performances and all will be swell until the 2nd week of the real stuff.
 
Nah. Form is out the window but it'll come back. Won't do much in finals though.

Clubs go in and out of form through a season and to be honest it's refreshing seeing us lose it now rather than ~round 20 for once. At least it gives us a chance to reconfigure and get it back for finals.

Problem being Pyke refuses to acknowledge the need for a reconfiguration. Moot point I guess.
 
I guess we have to hope port lose their first final and we get them in a "home" semi at AO
 
Anyone who thinks we are certainties to get in the finals hasn't watched our past 6 weeks. I think we are a chance to miss out.
Given our remaining matches, I'll say this - if we finish top four we will have had to play very well - and will be looking good for a flag.

But we're not either of those things at the moment.
 

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mattymac said:
Culture
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Not sure if it's as simple as that though I am concerned about our culture.

I remember Tony Hall talking about when Robert Shaw was coach. He said he started great, loved tough footy, new voice for the players and we had early season wins. But after we lost a few games he started to doubt himself. Changed personnel, changed strategies, panicked. Things just unraveled.

At the other end of the spectrum is Craig/Pyke. When the losses started to come for them they bunker down, get defensive, obstinate, stubborn.

Same pressure, different reactions to it. Both equally damaging to the club.

Somewhere in the middle lies a good decision maker. Someone who knows when to stick with a strategy (Keep Caven at CHB even though Nick Holland is torching him because I think he could be something there) and when to change it up (dropping a club legend from a massive semi final game). Confident enough that their over-arching philosophies will prevail but at the same time not too proud/insecure to recognise when they need to tweak things.
 
Southerntakeover said:
Legitimate question.

With our current form, and our inability to secure wins against even the worst teams in the league, are you confident that we'll get the three remaining wins that we might need?

I think there's a very real chance that we miss. We're 3-4 over our last 7, and none of those wins have shown any merit whatsoever. Whenever we've been challenged, we've failed.
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Reckon we will go 5-4 from here or 6-3 at best

14 or 15 wins
 
Drugs Are Bad Mackay? said:
Not sure if it's as simple as that though I am concerned about our culture.

I remember Tony Hall talking about when Robert Shaw was coach. He said he started great, loved tough footy, new voice for the players and we had early season wins. But after we lost a few games he started to doubt himself. Changed personnel, changed strategies, panicked. Things just unraveled.

At the other end of the spectrum is Craig/Pyke. When the losses started to come for them they bunker down, get defensive, obstinate, stubborn.

Same pressure, different reactions to it. Both equally damaging to the club.

Somewhere in the middle lies a good decision maker. Someone who knows when to stick with a strategy (Keep Caven at CHB even though Nick Holland is torching him because I think he could be something there) and when to change it up (dropping a club legend from a massive semi final game). Confident enough that their over-arching philosophies will prevail but at the same time not too proud/insecure to recognise when they need to tweak things.
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I feel like we have a very insular culture that has evolved out of a highly scrutinised (fishbowl) environment. Its a bunker mentality that I've mentioned before. No one on the outside understands us. Its just a hobby to them. We know what we are doing. Don't let the criticism affect us. Let's put up walls and even lock down on open training. Inside and outside. Us and them. Good and bad. Right and wrong.

When you're in the bunker and you're not listening to outside voices all you hear is the same confirmation from the same voices. That leads to a failure to recognise problems and a failure to adopt new solutions in my opinion.

It can work fine at the start but when things go wrong and you just have Hitler saying "what do you reckon?" and Goebbels and Goering are saying "ja mein fuhrer back the boys in to respond" time after time it all unravels because their is no fresh input, there is a bankruptcy of ideas coupled with a conviction that we are correct. Only we on the inside know and understand the true situation and outside criticism is treated with suspicion or denial.

This is a failure of outlook and leadership that goes right up the tree to Chapman.
 
Southerntakeover said:
Legitimate question.

With our current form, and our inability to secure wins against even the worst teams in the league, are you confident that we'll get the three remaining wins that we might need?

I think there's a very real chance that we miss. We're 3-4 over our last 7, and none of those wins have shown any merit whatsoever. Whenever we've been challenged, we've failed.
Click to expand...
To Pykey's credit he reset the team and game plan after the disaster cats loss at home last year

We need a similar scenario to get back on track and for mine it's about getting more mobility in to help pressure the opposition

Too much easy smooth ball movement from Hawks last night

We need to get better at full ground defence fast and it starts in our forward line and having more speed up there

Galluci and Knight should come in and Gov obviously and we also need to have more numbers forward of the ball and guys that can cover ground up and back

He's done it before so let's see if he can rejig again - in his own words it's no longer an event it's a trend so we need to fix it
 
Jeffcrowe said:
To Pykey's credit he reset the team and game plan after the disaster cats loss at home last year

We need a similar scenario to get back on track and for mine it's about getting more mobility in to help pressure the opposition

Too much easy smooth ball movement from Hawks last night

We need to get better at full ground defence fast and it starts in our forward line and having more speed up there

Galluci and Knight should come in and Gov obviously and we also need to have more numbers forward of the ball and guys that can cover ground up and back

He's done it before so let's see if he can rejig again - in his own words it's no longer an event it's a trend so we need to fix it
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theres only so much you can rejig ... come finals, you do not have another chance to rejig.

at this rate we'll be lucky to make the 8 ..
 
I fear that we will finish 5th again. But the confidence of this team has to be rock bottom after that garbage showing last night. I was furious when we gifted them late in the game.

Where the hell is that hunger we showed from Round 1 to Round 6 .... it seems that when the pressure is on they choke miserably. Time is running out AFC, you need to respond asap before it is too late.
 
On the one hand, this is good. We are having the crisis in round 13, not finals.

What if the first time someone tagged Sloane was the prelim final. We'd quit and lose easily, just like we did vs North.

This way, we are getting exposed and humiliated a bit without it really costing us. Still on track for top 2 if we can sort things out.

On the other hand, things might get worse. The Pies have had years under Bucks where they started strongly (8-3?) and missed the finals.

Coming into last night I thought we would see the turning point. Now I'm not so sure.
 
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