Prediction Will we make finals in 2023? AFL responds with "...not on my watch"

[GROTTO]

There is too many potential dead rubber games for teams we need to win for us to qualify, even though they will start as favs.

Blues v Giants

Syd vs Dees

I could easily see the Blues and Dees going into preservation mode before finals.

 

[daniel_4tw]

There is too many potential dead rubber games for teams we need to win for us to qualify, even though they will start as favs.

Blues v Giants

Syd vs Dees

I could easily see the Blues and Dees going into preservation mode before finals.

Hawks beating Melbourne would be huge this week. It would mean Carlton and Melbourne playing their respective games for 4th instead of 5th. Turns each round 23 as a must win and you would expect one of them to win.

Also gives the AFL a chance for Carlton v Collingwood QF which they’d be all over.

 

[GROTTO]

Hawks beating Melbourne would be huge this week. It would mean Carlton and Melbourne playing their respective games for 4th instead of 5th. Turns each round 23 as a must win and you would expect one of them to win.

Also gives the AFL a chance for Carlton v Collingwood QF which they’d be all over.

I agree, I just realistically dont see it happening.

We need "live" games so that Blues and Dees have something to play for in R24, otherwise our season is really cooked regardless if we win both our games.

 

[kirky]

How do Port not get second. You think Bris beat Collingwood in Melbourne? Even with injuries that will be a bit of an upset


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The Lions have won 8 of 10 at Marvel over past 5 years. s**t record at the G, reasonable record at Marvel.

 

[GROTTO]

The Lions have won 8 of 10 at Marvel over past 5 years. s**t record at the G, reasonable record at Marvel.

They have had some terrible losses at the G, with that said, they still rolled the Dees last year in a Final.

Their away record at the G wont be an issue in Finals this year if they have a healthy squad.

 

[baldandbroke]

How do Port not get second. You think Bris beat Collingwood in Melbourne? Even with injuries that will be a bit of an upset


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I guess I can see Paer losing one and Brisbane winning at least one.

Collingwood
- Brisbane (Marvel)
- Essendon (MCG)

Brisbane
- Collingwood (Marvel)
- Saints (Gabba)

Paer
- Freo (in freo)
- Richmoond (AO)

Melbourne
- Hawks (MCG)
- Sydney (SCG)

 

[MsTopG]

I guess I can see Paer losing one and Brisbane winning at least one.

Collingwood
- Brisbane (Marvel)
- Essendon (MCG)

Brisbane
- Collingwood (Marvel)
- Saints (Gabba)

Paer
- Freo (in freo)
- Richmoond (AO)

Melbourne
- Hawks (MCG)
- Sydney (SCG)

View attachment 1777197

Pear should lose against Freo this week. Same with the lions but both should win r24. Powaa to finish 3rd and probably go out in straight sets or if they win a game to go out away in a prelim. Percentage tells you a lot and powaa's is the same as ours. The best teams are Pies, Melb, Lions. Probably a Demons v Pies GF.

 

[Dangarman]

Because I'm bored again, here's a flowchart of how the last two rounds could pan out for us with the results of the ten matches that matter to us. Print it out and put a big black permanent marker line through the sections as each game finishes. (Obviously it's game over if we don't get through the orange bars). Let me know if there are any errors.

As I see it, to be in a position where a R24 win would have us in the finals immediately following the WC game, there's only one way that happens without West Coast beating the Dogs. Essendon beat GWS, Geelong beat StK, Collingwood beat Ess and Bris beat StK.

Enjoy!

 

[Mr MysteryGuest]

 

[Billy_01]

If favourites win this week swans would probably get up over Melbourne since the dees wouldn't want to jump into 3rd and play the lions week 1. Similarly Carlton would have nothing to play for against the giants so that games probably goes against us as well. We really need Gold Coast or Hawthorn to win this week to keep one of those 2 teams on edge.

 

[Trigger13]

If favourites win this week swans would probably get up over Melbourne since the dees wouldn't want to jump into 3rd and play the lions week 1. Similarly Carlton would have nothing to play for against the giants so that games probably goes against us as well. We really need Gold Coast or Hawthorn to win this week to keep one of those 2 teams on edge.

Yup. This is why the odds are def against us. Teams playing for a finals spot (v those in finals preservation mode) are likely to snag wins. Not what we want at all

 

[daniel_4tw]

I think out best chance Essendon beating GWS as I don’t think Essendon beat Collingwood. They’re rivals, Collingwood would want nothing more than to kick them out of finals.

 

[NSolis]

Yup. This is why the odds are def against us. Teams playing for a finals spot (v those in finals preservation mode) are likely to snag wins. Not what we want at all

Is this actually true? Would love to see some statistical analysis of whether teams with 'more to play for' actually win more. I am skeptical and think this is a perfect example of the sort of thing where people just remember the results which confirm the theory. WB had plenty to play for last week against a bottom three team and were terrible. Arguably same for Geelong who had more to gain from winning than Collingwood.

 

[George Kramer]

I think out best chance Essendon beating GWS as I don’t think Essendon beat Collingwood. They’re rivals, Collingwood would want nothing more than to kick them out of finals.

Essendon will beat Collingwood, pies are depleted. Need GWS to win

 

[GROTTO]

Essendon will beat Collingwood, pies are depleted. Need GWS to win

CarlTANK may happen so they preserve themselves for finals, they may not have anything to play for, which is the worst kind of scenario for us.

 

[1990crow]

CarlTANK may happen so they preserve themselves for finals, they may not have anything to play for, which is the worst kind of scenario for us.

IF we win tonight next Sunday is going to be a long AF day.

 

[Gtowncrow]

CarlTANK may happen so they preserve themselves for finals, they may not have anything to play for, which is the worst kind of scenario for us.

Carlton will protect their "streak" and form.

As would any team in good form.

 

[GROTTO]

Carlton will protect their "streak" and form.

As would any team in good form.

Nice in theory and Im sure they will want to win, however Carlton will enter preservation mode.

This is an open finals series. Having a full healthy list is imperative.

Their final H&A game could end up being meaningless.

 

[kirky]

IF we win tonight next Sunday is going to be a long AF day.

Just open a few bottles of red and then wake up Monday and do a happy dance.

 

[kirky]

Carlton will protect their "streak" and form.

As would any team in good form.

Agree, you never flirt with form.

 

[GROTTO]

It wouldnt surprise me to see Carlton rest a few players in the final H&A game.

Of course they will try and win it.

 

[betterthanu]

GC win would be handy here . The blues v Giants last round of season could well be an 8 deciding game and we need to to be a "live" game for Blues.

 

[kirky]

GC win would be handy here . The blues v Giants last round of season could well be an 8 deciding game and we need to to be a "live" game for Blues.

+ Carlton if they don’t win their last two games could end up with a final away from the MCG (assumes Sydney wins at least one game and Geelong win both). This scenario is extreme but possible - Essendon win today but lose next week and GWS lose today but win next week, Saints lose both games and we win both.

Result - Geelong would be in 5th, Swans 6th, Carlton 7th and us 8th.

The AFL wouldn’t be happy with that either.

 

[Trigger13]

Is this actually true? Would love to see some statistical analysis of whether teams with 'more to play for' actually win more. I am skeptical and think this is a perfect example of the sort of thing where people just remember the results which confirm the theory. WB had plenty to play for last week against a bottom three team and were terrible. Arguably same for Geelong who had more to gain from winning than Collingwood.

It def might not be true haha. I’m making a largish assumption here. Would love it if I’m wrong.

 

[pjcrows]

The bye before finals makes it less likely for teams to rest players in the final round.