Analysis Adelaide 2023 - #1 Scoring team - doesn't make finals - an AFL first?

[Go the Guts]

AFC 2023 season - 5 losses by a goal or less.

Most potent forward line in the comp, #1 scoring side.

Tex Walker likely AA and current leader of the Coleman Medal with 76 goals.

Crows finish in 10th place.

Is this the first time in AFL history the #1 scoring team hasn't made the finals?

Hard to get the head around!

 

[1990crow]

AFC 2023 season - 5 losses by a goal or less.

Most potent forward line in the comp, #1 scoring side.

Tex Walker likely AA and current leader of the Coleman Medal with 76 goals.

Crows finish in 10th place.

Is this the first time in AFL history the #1 scoring team hasn't made the finals?

Hard to get the head around!


View attachment 1786651

Waste of a year. That's it.

 

[VKCrow]

Could have been even further ahead in scoring if we scored the goals we should have.
21 behinds tonight!!!!

 

[Mr_Moogle]

The new Nicks special? It's an upgrade on the old Nicks special (winning a spoon).

 

[Samcro24]

Kicked more points than goals in 12 games. Even in one.

 

[NSolis]

The answer to the question here is yes, in the AFL era the highest scoring team has never missed finals until this year. The worst finishing position prior to this year for the top scoring side is 7th. This has happened twice: West Coast in 2003 and Richmond last year.

Our percentage (116.8%) is also a rarity for finishing so low. Only one team has finished 10th or lower with a higher percentage than us this year, which was North Melbourne in 2013 with 119.5%. Three other teams have missed finals with a higher percentage by finishing 9th: Richmond in 1996 with 117.4%, St. Kilda in 2012 with 123.3% and West Coast in 2014 with 116.9%.

Of course we probably should be finishing 7th or 8th which would make these records less notable.

 

[Go the Guts]

Yep. Atrocious goal kicking, not the Ben Keays

2

Ben Keays

Age

27

Ht

186cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

13.1

3star

K

5.8

2star

HB

7.3

5star

M

2.3

2star

T

3.9

5star

G

0.4

3star

D

13.7

3star

K

8.7

3star

HB

5.0

3star

M

2.8

3star

T

3.7

4star

G

0.3

3star

D

13.0

4star

K

4.8

2star

HB

8.2

5star

M

1.4

2star

T

4.4

5star

G

0.4

3star

decision, is why we missed the finals. Should have been top 4. We should be doing goal kicking everyday with recordings of booing crowds being played to simulate match conditions.

 

[MsTopG]

Could have been even further ahead in scoring if we scored the goals we should have.
21 behinds tonight!!!!

We should be the highest scoring team by a considerable margin with the amount of misses we had. We need to learn to finish off close games against top 4 sides. Our other issue is against the middle range sides we simply gave up way too much score against. Our problem through the year was putting in one real bad quarter on a lot of occasions. Working on our defence and midfield is how we get better. The concern for next year is that Murray won't be back until the 2nd half of the year and we don't know what's going on with Doedee. Looks like he is most likely off. Borlase isn't up to it. Keane looks a likely prospect but we need more depth in the tall defenders. Hinge, Worrell and Max showed a lot of promise in our 3rd tall brigade.

I would play Nank next year and hopefully we get Jones back early next season. Use our pick 9 on a mid and I would trade our next year's first for a clubs first round this year to use on a 2nd mid (hopefully pick 12-15). I would also trade in a better ruck and hopefully trade ROB out.

Ideally we trade in a KPD and a Ruck and we get 2 mids in the draft.
Looks like we will lose Crouch, Doedee. I don't know whats happening with McAdam? Most likely will stay I hope. I wouldn't mind trading out players such as Sholl, McHenry, Himmelberg.
I would delist McPherson, Hately, Borlase, Newchurch, Brown. Seedsman retiring.

 

[Dangarman]

If Port score 139 or more against Richmond today they will be the highest scoring team.
And despite our inaccurate scoring costing wins, we still finished 302.258, 54%. Port need 23 goals to be the highest goal scorer.

So we finish up with 11 wins, 10 losses, and 2* losses.

 

[CrowToon]

Goals to Behinds ratio should be someone's KPI next year.

Usually it's one you don't focus on because they represent chances created and you imagine over the course of the year the sheer weight of them will eventually get the results.

Our issue in this space is far too endemic.

 

[Burtonsgottago]

Yep. Atrocious goal kicking, not the Ben Keays decision, is why we missed the finals. Should have been top 4. We should be doing goal kicking everyday with recordings of booing crowds being played to simulate match conditions.

I hear what you say but you can’t dismiss the Ben Keays decision.. it was a goal called as a behind, it was a win counted as a loss, it was 0 points in the premiership race instead of 4.

 

[El Doederino]

I still remember Sarah Jones and Jordan Lewis

Jordan Lewis

Age

38

Ht

186cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

D/M

Career

Season

Last 5

D

23.5

5star

K

12.1

4star

HB

11.5

5star

M

5.5

5star

T

2.7

4star

MG

310.5

4star

No current season stats available

D

15.0

4star

K

6.8

3star

HB

8.2

5star

M

4.8

5star

T

2.8

5star

on the fox footy 2023 season preview asking who was going to kick our goals

 

[John Who]

All Nicks’ fault for making the players kick like a sack of potatoes. Meanwhile, well done to the players for being the highest scoring team!
(Some sarcasm in the comment above)

The good news is that with more experience, we should expect more composure, and by the law of averages, our scoring percentage should improve during clutch moments. Hopefully the 5-6 close losses this year should translate to a few close wins in 2024.

 

[skittlebrew]

So restricting points against seems to be better correlated with making finals. Apart from Port it seams day and night as to what teams make finals.

 

[Rotayjay]

I keep bringing up Squiggle, and it's a flawed model, but it has us as one of the worst teams in defensive strength. We leak too many goals. The y axis is attack and the x axis is defence:

Squiggle 2024

live.squiggle.com.au

 

[NSolis]

So restricting points against seems to be better correlated with making finals. Apart from Port it seams day and night as to what teams make finals.

This might be true in terms of winning premierships. In terms of making finals, there's a very strong correlation between being a top scoring side and making finals, as you'd expect. No #1 scoring side has ever missed finals before in the AFL era.

 

[Geoffa32]

Weird situation.

If we had been more accurate, we would have made Finals on our own merit.



I know a lot of people are saying it was a wasted season. But there is genuine improvement in this group.

We moved from bottom 4 easy beats to Finals contender. Playing a good brand of Footy.

This is a natural progression and a sign we are a team on the up.


Next year we must make Finals. Tighten up our goal kicking accuracy and win some away games.

On SM-A325F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[El Doederino]

The elephant in the room is this is predominantly down to Tex and by the time the midfield and Defence has caught up and is premiership quality, he’ll be gone.

Plan should be to keep him another 3 years which is when Lukosius becomes a free agent. Luko takes the Tex role with Tex staying on as forwards coach to mentor him and also Welsh.

 

[rabidcrow]

Yep. Atrocious goal kicking, not the Ben Keays

2

Ben Keays

Age

27

Ht

186cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

13.1

3star

K

5.8

2star

HB

7.3

5star

M

2.3

2star

T

3.9

5star

G

0.4

3star

D

13.7

3star

K

8.7

3star

HB

5.0

3star

M

2.8

3star

T

3.7

4star

G

0.3

3star

D

13.0

4star

K

4.8

2star

HB

8.2

5star

M

1.4

2star

T

4.4

5star

G

0.4

3star

decision, is why we missed the finals. Should have been top 4. We should be doing goal kicking everyday with recordings of booing crowds being played to simulate match conditions.

Being generous I put some of our misses down to fatigue. Pedlar in particular looks exhausted most times he is lining up for goal!
So hopefully another pre season helps the younger guys
Fog, Rankine, Dawson need to work hard - too good a kick to be missing some of the shots they do


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[UcantCme]

Yep. Atrocious goal kicking, not the Ben Keays

2

Ben Keays

Age

27

Ht

186cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

13.1

3star

K

5.8

2star

HB

7.3

5star

M

2.3

2star

T

3.9

5star

G

0.4

3star

D

13.7

3star

K

8.7

3star

HB

5.0

3star

M

2.8

3star

T

3.7

4star

G

0.3

3star

D

13.0

4star

K

4.8

2star

HB

8.2

5star

M

1.4

2star

T

4.4

5star

G

0.4

3star

decision, is why we missed the finals. Should have been top 4. We should be doing goal kicking everyday with recordings of booing crowds being played to simulate match conditions.

Lol we have done thins before, and the booing recordings might get you about 10% of the real thing

There is no way to replicate match conditions for goal kicking training

Better game day accuracy is on the players, not the coach

Mail your routine
Do the extras
Practice your routine religiously
On game day, take the responsibility
And kick the ******* goal

We can’t keep pinning players not getting it done on the coaches

Players need to take some ******* responsibility


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[adelaidecrows]

Lol we have done thins before, and the booing recordings might get you about 10% of the real thing

There is no way to replicate match conditions for goal kicking training

Better game day accuracy is on the players, not the coach

Mail your routine
Do the extras
Practice your routine religiously
On game day, take the responsibility
And kick the ******* goal

We can’t keep pinning players not getting it done on the coaches

Players need to take some ******* responsibility


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

Full Forwards used to look like they practised goal kicking a lot. Modra, Ablett, Lockett and Dunstall all kicked through the ball regardless of distance. Todays players clearly dont practise goal kicking as much as those in the past. The game has lost something for it.

 

[BACCS]

Weird situation.

If we had been more accurate, we would have made Finals on our own merit.



I know a lot of people are saying it was a wasted season. But there is genuine improvement in this group.

We moved from bottom 4 easy beats to Finals contender. Playing a good brand of Footy.

This is a natural progression and a sign we are a team on the up.


Next year we must make Finals. Tighten up our goal kicking accuracy and win some away games.

On SM-A325F using BigFooty.com mobile app

I’ve said this multiple times now, but tighten up our defense and we make top 4. We just leak too often and it’s the only part of our game not in premiership winning territory.

 

[MsTopG]

Yep. Atrocious goal kicking, not the Ben Keays decision, is why we missed the finals. Should have been top 4. We should be doing goal kicking everyday with recordings of booing crowds being played to simulate match conditions.

The coach should sit down with the players and go through every single match and point out instances where a player was selfish at times. Keays would be in quite a few of them but some other players aren't immune either. With some better composure and better decision making we should have scored another 20-25 goals for the year. The other part is goal kicking which needs to be focused on all preseason.

 

[BACCS]

The elephant in the room is this is predominantly down to Tex and by the time the midfield and Defence has caught up and is premiership quality, he’ll be gone.

Plan should be to keep him another 3 years which is when Lukosius becomes a free agent. Luko takes the Tex role with Tex staying on as forwards coach to mentor him and also Welsh.

Predominantly only Tex? I’ve seen this mentioned a bit, but it’s not backed by reality. It certainly applies to Larkey at North.

I believe we are 3rd for our goal kicking spread after Tex, six players more than 20. So even if Tex drops off a bit, we are still a top 4 attack this year, let alone next season as guys like RT, Fog and Rankine naturally improve.

We are premiership quality in every key measure other than defense, improve that and we are as good a chance as anyone to win it.

 

[CrowBloke]

Being generous I put some of our misses down to fatigue. Pedlar in particular looks exhausted most times he is lining up for goal!
So hopefully another pre season helps the younger guys

"Exhaustion" might explain kicking distance, but not accuracy.
Keep in mind we were 5.10 at half-time with a few ootf and others that didn't make the distance<== exhaustion cannot be a factor there. Plus they kicked 12.11 after that.

Pedlar's two misses in the last were from only 30-35m out on a slight angle. The first he missed to the R. The second he missed to the L via over-correction is my guess (like a bowler in Cricket).
Highly successful goalkicking (putting in Golf, free throws in Basketball, treble-20 in darts etc) comes from the repetition of a well-practiced routine, which includes checkside and around-the-body kicks from difficult angles.

Fog, Rankine, Dawson need to work hard - too good a kick to be missing some of the shots they do

You're right for those three who are normally very good kicks.
Some of their misses are inexplicable to me. The only thing I can think of is haste in taking the kick or a lapse in concentration/determination making them deviate from their routine.