Analysis Some perspective with scoring shot stats 2022 vs 2023

[John Who]

This thread is purely focusing on the stats of scoring shots, and comparing the seasons of 2022 with 2023.

What prompted me to consider doing this topic is that through this preseason and the first 2 rounds, I feel there is a genuine improvement among the group, even though currently the end outcome appears relatively stagnant (2 games, 2 losses). Perhaps some visualisation of numbers may give us a better insight of how we’re faring compared with season 2022?

Stats incoming in the following posts (with some updates throughout the year).

 

[John Who]

Scoring shots total in 2022

1. 12.10 vs Freo - 22 (total shots)
2. 8.10 vs Pies - 18
3. 15.6 vs Port - 21
4. 15.9 vs Dons - 24
5. 15.11 vs Rich - 26
6. 8.15 vs Dogs - 23
7. 8.6 vs GWS - 14
8. 10.8 vs Blues - 18
9. 9.12 vs Lions - 21
10. 9.15 vs Saints - 24
11. 7.13 vs Cats - 20
12. 13.10 vs WCE - 23
13. 10.13 vs Suns - 23
14. 17.13 vs North - 30
15. 10.5 vs Dees - 15
16. 8.6 vs Hawks - 14
17. 13.8 vs Pies - 21
18. 12.13 vs Swans - 25
19. 12.12 vs Blues - 24
20. 16.6 vs WCE - 22
21. 15.13 vs North - 28
22. 7.13 vs Port - 20

Average total scoring shots per match - 21.6

 

[John Who]

Scoring shots total in 2023

1. 12.18 vs GWS - 30 (total shots)
2. 10.16 vs Rich - 26
3. 18.9 vs Port - 27
4. 17.9 vs Freo - 26

To be continued..

 

[John Who]

Some observations so far:
- we’ve been kicking like s**t in the first 2 rounds!

- our kicking accuracy has so far gone backwards but our scoring power have significantly ramped up. 56 scoring shots compared with last year’s 40 scoring shots in the first 2 rounds, with a 40% increase in scoring opportunities.

- we only had 30 shots in a game just once last year; already we have a 30-shots-per-match in the first round.

- we only had 26 shots or more in a game 3 times last year; already we have that same stat twice in the first 2 rounds.

- from the above, I think it’s showing that our midfield has actually improved, just either the forwards aren’t kicking good enough, the forward entries are perhaps in more difficult scoring positions, or both.

I’m keen to update on this thread every few games to see if the trend continues or how it will alter. Keen also to see if our accuracy will improve, damnit!

 

[John Who]

One more thing, if we’re kicking like s**t but scoring options are there, then that’s on the players and nobody else. Continue to kick for goals abysmally, then it wouldn’t matter which coach you end up hiring.

 

[1970crow]

What was the excuse that died a painful death last year? Something about winning 4th quarters having special meaning? Anyway, did any of your usual rubbish take into account quality of opposition? Pies and Freo ladt year v GWS and Richmond this year. We know where Pies and Freo finished, but too early to tell re this year. So really just another wasted effort to delude yourself that we're somehow in a good space.

 

[GreyCrow]

One more thing, if we’re kicking like s**t but scoring options are there, then that’s on the players and nobody else. Continue to kick for goals abysmally, then it wouldn’t matter which coach you end up hiring.

I would suggest this is unlikely - not because I dont think there is some truth but I would like to think 2 things change - instruction pressure and where are we taking shots from?

Have you got a score tracker to see where the shots are being taken?

Because 1 coach may run different alleys to goals

 

[George Kramer]

We are playing a more attacking brand so we will have more scoring shots. Nicks was more worried about minimising the size of the loss.

Last year we didn’t have Rankine, we had McHenry.

Nicks has to hold his nerve and keep playing this way.

And no it doesn’t mean our midfield has improved, we’ve been getting smashed in clearances.

 

[Moonwatcher]

We had the exact same scoring shots against Richmond last year so the increase is entirely from the GWS game.

 

[Torpedro]

We have the highest inside 50 efficiency in the league currently at 57%. However, we’re ranked 17th for goal accuracy. Ranked 10th for inside 50’s

 

[Cap]

Did you by any chance look at the i50s as well ?

I do wonder the difference there.

 

[footy4ever]

We have the highest inside 50 efficiency in the league currently at 57%. However, we’re ranked 17th for goal accuracy. Ranked 10th for inside 50’s

Highest efficiency yet second to worst accuracy.

Yeah that's doing my head in

 

[cmndstab]

We have the highest inside 50 efficiency in the league currently at 57%. However, we’re ranked 17th for goal accuracy. Ranked 10th for inside 50’s

One possible interpretation of this is that we're just having pings at goal or taking set shots from terrible positions, whereas other teams are actually working to create realistic goal-scoring opportunities.

 

[GreyCrow]

One possible interpretation of this is that we're just having pings at goal or taking set shots from terrible positions, whereas other teams are actually working to create realistic goal-scoring opportunities.

I looked at disposals to goals and disposals to score

We took 36 disposals to get a goal but only 13.5 to get any score

A sideways assessment could be we are setting up goal opportunities better and/or pinging from long distance for scores which result in points - which is why I wanted a scoring spot chart

 

[Jeffcrowe]

I looked at disposals to goals and disposals to score

We took 36 disposals to get a goal but only 13.5 to get any score

A sideways assessment could be we are setting up goal opportunities better and/or pinging from long distance for scores which result in points - which is why I wanted a scoring spot chart

Not sure we are taking them from further out

But we are definitely more efficient re scoring shots per entry basis

Our ability to defend opposition ball movement has fallen off a Cliff …. Especially in clumps eg Richmond 2nd QTR and Giants 3rd QTR

 

[xjamescleanx]

One possible interpretation of this is that we're just having pings at goal or taking set shots from terrible positions, whereas other teams are actually working to create realistic goal-scoring opportunities.

it's this. also contributes to the zero forward 50 tackles. less endeavour. could also be explained by less discipline and less accountability.

 

[Coopers]

One possible interpretation of this is that we're just having pings at goal or taking set shots from terrible positions, whereas other teams are actually working to create realistic goal-scoring opportunities.

Not sure that's true, I wanted to stab myself in the head with a fork a few times watching us miss easy bloody set shots from 30m out.

I mean, I could go out there and miss those. I'd do it for the paycheck too.

 

[cmndstab]

Not sure that's true, I wanted to stab myself in the head with a fork a few times watching us miss easy bloody set shots from 30m out.

I mean, I could go out there and miss those. I'd do it for the paycheck too.

This does happen occasionally, but it seems to be that far more often we end up taking a mark 50m out on a 45 degree angle and think "yeah sure I can kick that".

I understand that at that point, finding a mark closer to goal is unlikely, but perhaps that's a good reason not to lead to that spot in the first place? We should be looking to create marks 30m out in the first place.

 

[Bearded Clam]

Some observations so far:
- we’ve been kicking like s**t in the first 2 rounds!

- our kicking accuracy has so far gone backwards but our scoring power have significantly ramped up. 56 scoring shots compared with last year’s 40 scoring shots in the first 2 rounds, with a 40% increase in scoring opportunities.

- we only had 30 shots in a game just once last year; already we have a 30-shots-per-match in the first round.

- we only had 26 shots or more in a game 3 times last year; already we have that same stat twice in the first 2 rounds.

- from the above, I think it’s showing that our midfield has actually improved, just either the forwards aren’t kicking good enough, the forward entries are perhaps in more difficult scoring positions, or both.

I’m keen to update on this thread every few games to see if the trend continues or how it will alter. Keen also to see if our accuracy will improve, damnit!

We convert even just half of our points kicked in both games so far and we probably have two easy wins on the board..

Its completely unacceptable as a hell of a lot of the missed shots have been fairly easy.. and the culprits have included Fog, Tex, Rankine, Rachele, Pedlar.. guys that you’d normally put your house on in front of goals..

Not only do these missed easy shots cost you on the scoreboard.. they are also momentum killers as they are deflating for the team as a whole..

And if I see another player hand off a set shot from 40 out straight in front to Brodie Smith whos running past I’ll fxxkn spew.
Smith hasnt nailed one single one of those kicks in nearly two years now.

I cant believe he still has the nerve to demand the handball anymore..

 

[Bearded Clam]

One of our most reliable set shots this year has been Mcadam.. unfortunately hes been screwed out of the side for three weeks..

He’s been nailing most of his set shots..

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

One possible interpretation of this is that we're just having pings at goal or taking set shots from terrible positions, whereas other teams are actually working to create realistic goal-scoring opportunities.

No, we have missed so many easy shots at goal.

 

[Interloperer]

According to xscore Adelaide's kicking in Round 1 was below average, but barely. It wasn't the difference. Too many low-value shots was probably a bigger issue.

In Round 2 it was bad though and was likely a key factor in deciding the match.

This does happen occasionally, but it seems to be that far more often we end up taking a mark 50m out on a 45 degree angle and think "yeah sure I can kick that".

I understand that at that point, finding a mark closer to goal is unlikely, but perhaps that's a good reason not to lead to that spot in the first place? We should be looking to create marks 30m out in the first place.

It's usually Walker,Fogarty,Dawson,et al from out there. They should be taking those shots. They won't kick them all, but they're more likely to score directly from a set shot, than set up another teammate AND have that teammate score a goal.

 

[John Who]

I would suggest this is unlikely - not because I dont think there is some truth but I would like to think 2 things change - instruction pressure and where are we taking shots from?

Have you got a score tracker to see where the shots are being taken?

Because 1 coach may run different alleys to goals

This is the same team coached by the same person in consecutive years. Unless Nicks is instructing them to kick at more difficult spots (which hopefully isn’t the case), you would think the lack of accuracy is mostly on the current forwards or mids floating up forward.

 

[GreyCrow]

This is the same team coached by the same person in consecutive years. Unless Nicks is instructing them to kick at more difficult spots (which hopefully isn’t the case), you would think the lack of accuracy is mostly on the current forwards or mids floating up forward.

wouldn’t matter which coach you end up hiring.

Hence my comment - but even with the same coach there may be a change of avenue from a defensive mindset to a offensive one

Have you got scoring spots?

 

[John Who]

One possible interpretation of this is that we're just having pings at goal or taking set shots from terrible positions, whereas other teams are actually working to create realistic goal-scoring opportunities.

I think from a basic observation, we have missed some easy shots on goals as well as seeing Tex, Fog and Rachele missed ones they’d normally would gobble up.

Also just for some further perspective, I would suggest bad luck has also been a factor. From recollection:

Round 1 - first quarter, our first 3 behinds were 1 poster and 2 landed through the goals but were both touched by opposition players. That is actually very low probability for the first 3 points!

Round 2 - I counted 3 posters in the first 3 quarters.

If we had converted those slim error of margin into goals, then that would be your game changer right there. Luck does play a role in footy whether we’d like to admit it or not.