Prediction Will we make finals in 2023? AFL responds with "...not on my watch"

[DJ75]

Beat Sydney and I have us finishing 8th. Sydney remarkably still end up 7th.



We beat Carlton in Melbourne week 1, despite the most biased umpiring seen since the Bulldogs year.
Then lose a close one the week after to Melbourne.
Coll and Brisbane GF.

 

[LoBu]

Beat Sydney and I have us finishing 8th. Sydney remarkably still end up 7th.

View attachment 1774957

We beat Carlton in Melbourne week 1, despite the most biased umpiring seen since the Bulldogs year.
Then lose a close one the week after to Melbourne.
Coll and Brisbane GF.

That looks likely, but would be stoked if Melbourne can get up over Sydney in the last week, that puts us against a less scary st kilda first round, and then if Melbourne continue their form put Port up against us it a nightmare scenario for Kenny's mob in a Showdown semi-final.

On SM-F926B using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Gtowncrow]

That looks likely, but would be stoked if Melbourne can get up over Sydney in the last week, that puts us against a less scary st kilda first round, and then if Melbourne continue their form put Port up against us it a nightmare scenario for Kenny's mob in a Showdown semi-final.

On SM-F926B using BigFooty.com mobile app

"I'd pay to see that"

 

[Dangerousfield]

Swans been having to win every week for two months now, reckon they'll have an away from home downer this week, we could win by plenty if we jump out of the blocks and put them on the back foot.

Confident we're playing finals, Sloane will relish the extra intensity and pace of finals

 

[Rotayjay]

I'd definitely pay to see a Showdown final more than any other.

 

[Crow till I die]

I'd definitely pay to see a Showdown final more than any other.

And to see jonas standing rankine again

---

 

[rabidcrow]

Last 12-13 years 68 sides have started a season 0-2 and only 8 have played finals

6 sides started 0-2 this year and Geelong, Dogs and us are all a chance.

We really did put ourselves behind the 8 ball with those first two games


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[moogerfooger]

Luke Hodge has us finishing 7th and Geelong 6th. Would back us to beat them anywhere but Kardinia.

 

[Dangarman]

Totally irrelevant, but this is probably the best thread to post this observation.

Crows currently have the most points for in the comp.
+13 on Bris (CWD and StK)
+16 on Port (Freo and Rich)
+43 on Geelong (StK and WB)
+56 on Collingwood (Bris and Ess)
+77 on Syd (Crows and Mel)
+82 on Mel (Haw and Syd)
Next best is Ess, 226 behind.

Given we play WC in R24, can we see anyone beating us to be the best attack this year?

 

[GROTTO]

Alright kids, gather round. Bookmark this post. It’s your Bible. An essay in two parts.

Part 1: the permutations

We currently sit 12th, which means we need to catch 4 teams.

If we don’t win both of our games, we are mathematically gone because although we are currently within one win of 4 teams, they all play each other which means we can’t catch them all by winning one game.

So I’ll assume we win both of ours, otherwise the whole exercise is futile.

I’ll also assume the Bulldogs beat West Coast this week, because there’s nothing dumber than mathematical chances with no basis in reality.

Now if we win our last two, we jump at least two teams - the loser of GWS/Essendon and Cats/Dogs. We need to find two more to jump.

WE NEED TWO OF THE FOLLOWING THREE THINGS TO HAPPEN TO MAKE FINALS.

1. Melbourne to beat Sydney in round 24. Simple. We jump Sydney.

2. The winner of Essendon/GWS to go on and lose in round 24.

So if Essendon beats GWS, we need Collingwood to beat Essendon. We jump Essendon.

If GWS beats Essendon, we need Carlton to beat GWS. We jump GWS.

3. And just trust me here, this works.

If St Kilda beats Geelong, we need Geelong to beat the Bulldogs. We jump the Bulldogs.

If Geelong beats St Kilda, we need Brisbane to beat St Kilda as well. We jump St Kilda.

Now if all three of those things happen, we finish 7th.

If the Eagles pull off a miracle this weekend, or if there’s a draw somewhere, you’ll find me in the foetal position with a calculator.

Correct me if I am wrong here, but doesnt a scenario exist, where its in Melbourne's best interest to lose to Sydney potentially looming, where they get a "home" final at the G vs Pies who finish 1st, otherwise an away Final at the GABBA looms. Carlton complicates the issue where they can jump into the Top 4 and steal Melbourne's position, so Carlton winning this week, gives the Dees incentive to beat Sydney in their Final H&A game.

 

[GROTTO]

For the more adventurous among us, we are a 0.3% chance of securing a home final - a sequence of results that would include the Eagles rolling the Dogs this weekend.

The Kenny "Straight Sets exit" Hinkley variable looms where we may potentially play Port at AO. Albeit an "away" final at home.

 

[Bevoman]

The Kenny "Straight Sets exit" Hinkley variable looms where we may potentially play Port at AO. Albeit an "away" final at home.

Well it may help as the Crows do not win away games

 

[GROTTO]

Well it may help as the Crows do not win away games

Of course a Port poster turning up on here after a win a few days ago, nothing can be more surer.

 

[WAG]

Well it may help as the Crows do not win away games

It would be great if we met you in a prelim. Cause, you know, the Power do not win........

 

[baldandbroke]

It would be great if we met you in a prelim. Cause, you know, the Power do not win........

Paer are not playing bad footy - they wiped the floor with GWS.

I don't see how they get top 2 though ... so they are destined for a nasty Semi at AO in the second week of finals.

If we make the 8, I don't expect us to progress at all. First week exit would be highly probable. pOOWer would be more likely to face whichever one of Saints / Carlton / Sydney / GWS / Geelong beats us.

 

[rabidcrow]

Paer are not playing bad footy - they wiped the floor with GWS.

I don't see how they get top 2 though ... so they are destined for a nasty Semi at AO in the second week of finals.

If we make the 8, I don't expect us to progress at all. First week exit would be highly probable. pOOWer would be more likely to face whichever one of Saints / Carlton / Sydney / GWS / Geelong beats us.

How do Port not get second. You think Bris beat Collingwood in Melbourne? Even with injuries that will be a bit of an upset


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[daniel_4tw]

How do Port not get second. You think Bris beat Collingwood in Melbourne? Even with injuries that will be a bit of an upset


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

I’m at least hoping Brisbane win to keep Port out of second.

Collingwood have a heap of injuries and can’t lose top spot now. Nothing to play for and will wait to get through with no injuries. Brisbane have a home final on the line and should want to prove they can win away.

Also it’s at Marvel, not MCG, which tips it in their favour.

 

[Crow till I die]

I’m at least hoping Brisbane win to keep Port out of second.

Collingwood have a heap of injuries and can’t lose top spot now. Nothing to play for and will wait to get through with no injuries. Brisbane have a home final on the line and should want to prove they can win away.

Also it’s at Marvel, not MCG, which tips it in their favour.

make it so!!!

 

[GROTTO]

I’m at least hoping Brisbane win to keep Port out of second.

Collingwood have a heap of injuries and can’t lose top spot now. Nothing to play for and will wait to get through with no injuries. Brisbane have a home final on the line and should want to prove they can win away.

Also it’s at Marvel, not MCG, which tips it in their favour.

Pies can lose top spot, if the Lions beat them this week and win next week and Pies lose this week and next and drop a few percentage.

Not beyond the realms of possibility

I think Pies may roll over this week by taking the foot off the pedal and get prepared for finals when they play a much more beatable Dons at the G.

 

[daniel_4tw]

Pies can lose top spot, if the Lions beat them this week and win next week and Pies lose this week and next and drop a few percentage.

Not beyond the realms of possibility

I think Pies may roll over this week by taking the foot off the pedal and get prepared for finals when they play a much more beatable Dons at the G.

Oh this is true. I thought their percentage was better than Lions but it actually pretty similar.

Even so, 1st or 2nd, they’re playing at home week 1.

We do want Pies to have some incentive to win R23 in case we need them to beat Essendon (if they beat GWS that is).

Either way, I’m a Brisbane fan tomorrow!

 

[GROTTO]

Oh this is true. I thought their percentage was better than Lions but it actually pretty similar.

Even so, 1st or 2nd, they’re playing at home week 1.

We do want Pies to have some incentive to win R23 in case we need them to beat Essendon (if they beat GWS that is).

Either way, I’m a Brisbane fan tomorrow!

I think the bottom line you were trying to say is that the Pies have an almost locked home final in Week 1 and the double chance.

Port would have to win both remaining games and make up ~16%, even if Pies lose both games, I expect them to not be bashed to the extent their % gets overridden by the Power.

 

[Cuzz09]

I can picture Essendon beating Pies in a last round game that won't mean much to Pies.

Coll will beat Bris. They're fragile away from sunny Brisbane

On SM-S908E using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[GROTTO]

I can picture Essendon beating Pies in a last round game that won't mean much to Pies.

Coll will beat Bris. They're fragile away from sunny Brisbane

On SM-S908E using BigFooty.com mobile app

Yes and No.

At the Dome, Lions are 7W from 8 games, their only loss vs Dogs by 13 and have rolled two top 8 teams there in Saints and Blues.

 

[BACCS]

I can picture Essendon beating Pies in a last round game that won't mean much to Pies.

Coll will beat Bris. They're fragile away from sunny Brisbane

On SM-S908E using BigFooty.com mobile app

Brisbane are good at Marvel though and I think have won their last 5 or something against the Pies. With the Collingwood outs and already securing top spot I have Brisbane as favourites.

 

[Crow till I die]

Looks like Carlton getting a few back this week