Association Football Betting Thread

[jd2010]

I dont mind adding a couple of those to a multi but i generally steer clear of anything more than 4-6 legs. So adding too many of them for the sake of adding value isn't worth it imo just increases your chances of finding an upset loss

 

[SM]

I dont mind adding a couple of those to a multi but i generally steer clear of anything more than 4-6 legs. So adding too many of them for the sake of adding value isn't worth it imo just increases your chances of finding an upset loss

Precisely.

I'm liking Brisbane +41.5 into Carlton-Dogs under 160.5 @ $3.65. Hit a similar multi last night with Swans-GWS over 166.5 into Crows -23.5 which is a tasty multiplier.

 

[Jatz]

This weekends multi.

View attachment 392332

It was really risky adding the legs in but I guess I'll have to find something nice to spend the extra $170 coming my way

Nice fortnight - +$800 the last 2 weekends.

 

[SM]

It was really risky adding the legs in but I guess I'll have to find something nice to spend the extra $170 coming my way

Nice fortnight - +$800 the last 2 weekends.

Querrey took the first set and Lions threatened Tigers at various points in the match. Hawks-Cats was also pretty tight for most of the game. You winning the multi doesn't make the principle of it incorrect. Taking those sorts of short odds isn't worth it for the level of risk.

In the mean time I made the same off two multis (unless the Blues-Dogs game goes nuts in the last few minutes) for much less risk relatively speaking.

 

[jd2010]

I went Bont 30+ into Freo-WCE either by under 15.5. ******* Freo and their s**t goal kicking is going to cost me!

 

[jd2010]

I went Bont 30+ into Freo-WCE either by under 15.5. ******* Freo and their s**t goal kicking is going to cost me!

$15.66 had $10 on it. Current cash out is $30 I might take it

 

[SM]

I chucked my winnings on WCE -35.5, getting a bit nervy.

 

[jd2010]

Cash out not available on ladbrokes in the last Q. *ers. Was just about to cash out!

 

[SM]

Cash out not available on ladbrokes in the last Q. ******s. Was just about to cash out!

Yeah cashed mine for 50 and chucked 200 on totals being under 120.5 so recovered my stake, thrown a bit on Federer -5.5 so I'll see how I come out from that. If it gets up I've turned $100 into $1,000 in 24 hours. If it doesn't, well I withdraw 200 giving me $50 profit and leaving me $100 in the bank for next weekend.

 

[SM]

Well that's made it a pretty good weekend.

 

[Jatz]

Querrey took the first set and Lions threatened Tigers at various points in the match. Hawks-Cats was also pretty tight for most of the game. You winning the multi doesn't make the principle of it incorrect. Taking those sorts of short odds isn't worth it for the level of risk.

In the mean time I made the same off two multis (unless the Blues-Dogs game goes nuts in the last few minutes) for much less risk relatively speaking.

Querrey took the first set in a tiebreak and didn't earn a break point against the Cilic until the 3rd set. That was always safe. The Tigers were never in danger of losing that game either. As for the Cats, they were $1.40 so don't match up with your silly rule anyway.

Haha oh man you make me laugh. The only risky result was the Cats game. Whatever, enjoy your multi's

 

[SM]

Querrey took the first set in a tiebreak and didn't earn a break point against the Cilic until the 3rd set. That was always safe. The Tigers were never in danger of losing that game either. As for the Cats, they were $1.40 so don't match up with your silly rule anyway.

Haha oh man you make me laugh. The only risky result was the Cats game. Whatever, enjoy your multi's

Querrey also bases his game around his serve and after taking the first set served first in the second, giving him every chance to serve his way through to a two set lead. I watched that entire match so don't twist what was an incredibly tight match. Brisbane got a strong run on in the second quarter and just fell away in the third, unlike their game a fortnight ago against the Bombers where they mounted more pressure after half time.

Stick your head in the sand if you want, you've continued to miss JD and my point and that's fine, we both made a lot of money this weekend. But it's like a player going all in on 2 7 in poker and coming up with the nuts and pointing to their win as justifying their strategy rather than understanding the essence of the criticism against them.

 

[Jatz]

Querrey also bases his game around his serve and after taking the first set served first in the second, giving him every chance to serve his way through to a two set lead. I watched that entire match so don't twist what was an incredibly tight match. Brisbane got a strong run on in the second quarter and just fell away in the third, unlike their game a fortnight ago against the Bombers where they mounted more pressure after half time.

Stick your head in the sand if you want, you've continued to miss JD and my point and that's fine, we both made a lot of money this weekend. But it's like a player going all in on 2 7 in poker and coming up with the nuts and pointing to their win as justifying their strategy rather than understanding the essence of the criticism against them.

I haven't missed your point at all, I just think it's absolutely ridiculous. It makes some sense if you're betting $10 but I'm not betting $10, therefore it doesn't apply. Tell me, how much money did you have on your multi's this weekend?

 

[SM]

I haven't missed your point at all, I just think it's absolutely ridiculous. It makes some sense if you're betting $10 but I'm not betting $10, therefore it doesn't apply. Tell me, how much money did you have on your multi's this weekend?

I had the same as you - $100.

 

[jd2010]

I haven't missed your point at all, I just think it's absolutely ridiculous. It makes some sense if you're betting $10 but I'm not betting $10, therefore it doesn't apply. Tell me, how much money did you have on your multi's this weekend?

Do you not think the more legs you go the increased risk you have of losing? Isn't that basic laws of probability?

10x $1.10 bets have more risk than 8x $1.20 & 4x $1.40 bets despite having shorter odds ($2.59 vs $2.99 vs $3.42)

 

[SM]

Do you not think the more legs you go the increased risk you have of losing? Isn't that basic laws of probability?

10x $1.10 bets have more risk than 8x $1.20 & 4x $1.40 bets despite having shorter odds ($2.59 vs $2.99 vs $3.42)

I notice he didn't respond to my question of doing a single multi of all 10 AFL and 8 NRL games with lines adjusted to give him $1.10 odds for each - would have still given him a multi of around $5.50 odds with 18 legs.

 

[jd2010]

I notice he didn't respond to my question of doing a single multi of all 10 AFL and 8 NRL games with lines adjusted to give him $1.10 odds for each - would have still given him a multi of around $5.50 odds with 18 legs.

My example is betting on favourites but just slightly longer odds. In theory (and probably in reality) 4 $1.40 favourites should win more than 10 $1.10 favourites.

It's why those 20 bet challenges fail more often than not

 

[SM]

My example is betting on favourites but just slightly longer odds. In theory (and probably in reality) 4 $1.40 favourites should win more than 10 $1.10 favourites.

It's why those 20 bet challenges fail more often than not

Absolutely. It's why I learned not to stack $1.10 tennis matches into a multi as one or two inevitably fail.

 

[jd2010]

Absolutely. It's why I learned not to stack $1.10 tennis matches into a multi as one or two inevitably fail.

Yeah I've started to go shorter on legs but longer on odds.

Sometimes it's easier to predict 2 or 3 $2.50 legs than it is 7-8 under $1.50 legs. Yesterday for instance I had Martin 30 touches and Richmond to win, Bont 30 touches & Dogs to win in a multi. $1.50 into $3.75 for $5.62. Then had Bont into the Western Derby either side under 16 points $3.75 into $4.50 for $16.88 and if it wasn't for Freo kicking 5.14 there's a good chance that gets up!

 

[SM]

Yeah I've started to go shorter on legs but longer on odds.

Sometimes it's easier to predict 2 or 3 $2.50 legs than it is 7-8 under $1.50 legs. Yesterday for instance I had Martin 30 touches and Richmond to win, Bont 30 touches & Dogs to win in a multi. $1.50 into $3.75 for $5.62. Then had Bont into the Western Derby either side under 16 points $3.75 into $4.50 for $16.88 and if it wasn't for Freo kicking 5.14 there's a good chance that gets up!

Yep, my two leg multis have done me well three in a row now, turning $100 into about $370. While theoretically much harder to win than Jatz's, a bit of research goes a long way, and there's less variables to worry about stuffing up the multi.

 

[jd2010]

Yep, my two leg multis have done me well three in a row now, turning $100 into about $370. While theoretically much harder to win than Jatz's, a bit of research goes a long way, and there's less variables to worry about stuffing up the multi.

I don't think theoretically it is much harder. 8 short favourites imo is harder than 2 decent chances that give long odds

 

[SM]

I don't think theoretically it is much harder. 8 short favourites imo is harder than 2 decent chances that give long odds

Yep. As I said, we all won money this weekend so no point getting too worked up, I just don't think in practice Jatz's theory holds up in the long run.

 

[Jatz]

Absolutely. It's why I learned not to stack $1.10 tennis matches into a multi as one or two inevitably fail.

Nothing wrong with that either

Also sorry on the delay, I'm struggling to keep up with the convo due to work.

 

[SM]

Nothing wrong with that either

Also sorry on the delay, I'm struggling to keep up with the convo due to work.

If you had so much luck with it back in January why didn't you continue with the French and Wimbledon?

 

[jd2010]

Out of interest how many of those shorter than $1.20 matches went to 5 sets?