List Mgmt. 2017 Trade & Free Agency Watch Part 2

[Hoos]

McIntosh Markov Short Menadue all capable of replacing Houli down the track. No need to chase someone like Salem, especially for 2 first round picks.

Salem 2 first round picks? Lol

Is he even worth one first round pick?

 

[Nerflardio2424]

Is he even worth one first round pick?

Nope, first rounders at trade are reserved for best 22 players who get on the park consistently imo


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[Hoos]

Nope, first rounders at trade are reserved for best 22 players who get on the park consistently imo


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I thought that this Salem must be a different one to the one I had seen. I mean, he's okay...but who thinks he's worth, not one, but two first rounders?

 

[_RT_]

Is he even worth one first round pick?

To quote The Angels

No way
Get ****ed
**** off

 

[THE THIN MAN]

Is he even worth one first round pick?

If we take Salem off Melbourne's hands do we get a 1st round pick upgrade?

 

[Wacky Tiger]

lol Salem isnt that bad. Had a tough break with injuries. Not sure why we are discussing him though. Dont see a spot for him at the Tigers

 

[energyquant]

Just to be clear, I was actually saying "our" two first rounders, which will equate to about pick 6/7. I wasn't talking about value, I was talking about cost. I explicitly said Melbourne would win out of this trade, but they would need to if they were to give him up at the trade table. An excellent post by Calcium Man convinced me that he could be attained much more cheaply than that (effectively a second rounder).

Lots of people say he is crap. I've barely seen the kid play. His numbers are trending up and he'll match Brandon Ellis for output next year. Barring injury, he'll play 22 games next year. I'd put him in the same category as Brodie Smith - a good and potentially very good player, with an elite characteristic (Salem is just about the best kick on the Melbourne list).

Short or Markov might be Houli's replacement. I'm not so sure. Short looks like a back-pocket to me and Markov might not make it. KMac and Menadue are wingers, not half-backs.

It's not our highest priority, but if a guy like Salem was thrown on the table by Melbourne we'd be crazy not to take a look. In contrast, I'd DEMAND a top 3 pick for Brandon Ellis - he's ultra-critical to our game-plan and in the prime of his career. Would anyone here give up Ellis for anything less than an early 1st rounder?

I'm clearly wrong on this (a lot of people have disagreed), but I just wanted to clear up a few misunderstandings about my position.

Cheers.

Dave P.

 

[THE THIN MAN]

2018 free agents: Lynch, Gaff headline monster list



http://www.afl.com.au/news/2017-09-06/2018-free-agents-lynch-gaff-headline-monster-list

• Reece Conca
  • adds very little due to form/fitness and has been average at best over his career
• Ben Griffiths
  • does not impose himself on the field and is a perennial crock

These are the two I would put on the trade table and bring in new players.

 

[Ace Cannon]

Just to be clear, I was actually saying "our" two first rounders, which will equate to about pick 6/7. I wasn't talking about value, I was talking about cost. I explicitly said Melbourne would win out of this trade, but they would need to if they were to give him up at the trade table. An excellent post by Calcium Man convinced me that he could be attained much more cheaply than that (effectively a second rounder).

Lots of people say he is crap. I've barely seen the kid play. His numbers are trending up and he'll match Brandon Ellis for output next year. Barring injury, he'll play 22 games next year. I'd put him in the same category as Brodie Smith - a good and potentially very good player, with an elite characteristic (Salem is just about the best kick on the Melbourne list).

Short or Markov might be Houli's replacement. I'm not so sure. Short looks like a back-pocket to me and Markov might not make it. KMac and Menadue are wingers, not half-backs.

It's not our highest priority, but if a guy like Salem was thrown on the table by Melbourne we'd be crazy not to take a look. In contrast, I'd DEMAND a top 3 pick for Brandon Ellis - he's ultra-critical to our game-plan and in the prime of his career. Would anyone here give up Ellis for anything less than an early 1st rounder?

I'm clearly wrong on this (a lot of people have disagreed), but I just wanted to clear up a few misunderstandings about my position.

Cheers.

Dave P.

Jordan McMahon Mark 2 .... let's not trade away Callan ward again for sheep dog one trick pony .


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[tigernsw]

Salem looks to be developing well, after an injury interrupted start to his career. His stats are very comparable to Brandon Ellis. Both are outside players, generally running off the half-back flank. Salem is a very good kick and he tackles a bit more regularly than Ellis. All of his stats are trending up. Played 16 games this season, around 85% game time.

I'd be very surprised if he was on the trade table. He just did a two year contract extension. Came in with pick 9. We'd have to offer up both our first rounders for him. He would replace Houli. I'd consider it if we think we're ready to challenge for a flag.

Cheers.

Dave P.

Both first rounders? You're taking the piss. A 3rd round pick would overpaying

 

[TiggerMan22]

2018 free agents: Lynch, Gaff headline monster list

View attachment 412257

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2017-09-06/2018-free-agents-lynch-gaff-headline-monster-list

• Reece Conca
  • adds very little due to form/fitness and has been average at best over his career
• Ben Griffiths
  • does not impose himself on the field and is a perennial crock

These are the two I would put on the trade table and bring in new players.

Conca was on the trade table last year. No takers.
Griffiths is more likely to retire than be traded.

You say they are average and injured. Why would any other teams want them then?
On top of that they are free agents so other teams don't have to trade for them.

 

[richoatthedisco]

Just to be clear, I was actually saying "our" two first rounders, which will equate to about pick 6/7. I wasn't talking about value, I was talking about cost. I explicitly said Melbourne would win out of this trade, but they would need to if they were to give him up at the trade table. An excellent post by Calcium Man convinced me that he could be attained much more cheaply than that (effectively a second rounder).

Lots of people say he is crap. I've barely seen the kid play. His numbers are trending up and he'll match Brandon Ellis for output next year. Barring injury, he'll play 22 games next year. I'd put him in the same category as Brodie Smith - a good and potentially very good player, with an elite characteristic (Salem is just about the best kick on the Melbourne list).

Short or Markov might be Houli's replacement. I'm not so sure. Short looks like a back-pocket to me and Markov might not make it. KMac and Menadue are wingers, not half-backs.

It's not our highest priority, but if a guy like Salem was thrown on the table by Melbourne we'd be crazy not to take a look. In contrast, I'd DEMAND a top 3 pick for Brandon Ellis - he's ultra-critical to our game-plan and in the prime of his career. Would anyone here give up Ellis for anything less than an early 1st rounder?

I'm clearly wrong on this (a lot of people have disagreed), but I just wanted to clear up a few misunderstandings about my position.

Cheers.

Dave P.

Jesus, Dave. Does the P stand for Magic?

 

[THE THIN MAN]

Conca was on the trade table last year. No takers.
Griffiths is more likely to retire than be traded.

You say they are average and injured. Why would any other teams want them then?
On top of that they are free agents so other teams don't have to trade for them.

Free Agents in 2018 (2018 free agents: Lynch, Gaff headline monster list)

Conca may gets Richmond a pick upgrade as for Griffiths anything is possible after all Richmond did pickup Chris Knights

 

[Metapod]

In the right environment he could flourish. Confidence player. [insert optimism here]. Couldn't get a good run at it up there. Averaged 6 goals straight in round 22 against the bombers in 2010 - that's higher than Townsend's average and double plus 4 of what Soldo kicked in an entire season. Freakishly good talent. Everyone looks better in a Richmond jumper!

View attachment 412166

Pass, yet I feel like he is the type of guy who would average 40 touches and 10 goals in your local league.

 

[Metapod]

No, I'm not. I didn't think much of Salem, but someone on this board suggested him so I thought I'd take a look at the numbers.

https://afltables.com/afl/stats/players/C/Christian_Salem.html
https://afltables.com/afl/stats/players/B/Brandon_Ellis.html

Salem's performance in 2017 (on the averages) is pretty good. He's trending in the right direction. If he gets a good run at it next year, he'll probably match the output of Ellis.

It surprises me that so many people want to draft Naish with (say) pick 15, when we could apparently *easily* trade for a guy like Salem with the same pick. If our goal is to win a premiership, why bother developing an outside runner of our own when we can go and pluck one away from another club?

I don't care if it's Salem. I'm just using him as an example. Brodie Smith looks pretty damn good too. He was drafted at pick 14 and has 142 games under his belt. His numbers are effectively the same as Salem in 2017. Same number of disposals, same balance of inside/outside ball, same balance of kicks and handballs. He makes a couple more inside 50's, one less tackle and Salem is better at earning free kicks.

https://afltables.com/afl/stats/players/B/Brodie_Smith.html

My point is: someone needs to get ready to replace Houli. He's been a fine player, but he's coming to the end. If we are serious about winning a flag, we'll go and get a very good, experienced half-back who kicks the ball well. I don't think we have the luxury to draft a player and develop him for 3+ years.

Cheers.

Dave P.

I'll have a go at this. First round draft picks are gold. Superstars aren't locked exclusively to the top 10, many guns are picked in the teens. There's a reason AFL clubs value first round picks; because you can often draft future franchise players with these picks:

2009 Draft: Daniel Talia pick #13, Fyfe pick #20 (just outside first round).
2010 Draft: Tom Lynch GCS variety pick #11
2011 Draft: Greene pick #11, Docherty pick #12, Taylor Adams pick #13
2012 Draft: Danniher pick #10, Grundy pick #18
2013 Draft: Patrick Cripps pick #13
2014 Draft: Lever pick #14, Heeney pick #18
2015 Draft: Hipwood pick #14, Rioli pick #15

My point is, would you rather take a gamble and try to draft someone like Talia, Fyfe, Lynch, Greene, Docherty, Adams, Danniher, Grundy, Cripps, Lever, Heeney, Hipwood or Rioli, or trade that pick for someone who would be fringe best 22 like Salem?

 

[Calcium Man]

I'll have a go at this. First round draft picks are gold. Superstars aren't locked exclusively to the top 10, many guns are picked in the teens. There's a reason AFL clubs value first round picks; because you can often draft future franchise players with these picks:

2009 Draft: Daniel Talia pick #13, Fyfe pick #20 (just outside first round).
2010 Draft: Tom Lynch GCS variety pick #11
2011 Draft: Greene pick #11, Docherty pick #12, Taylor Adams pick #13
2012 Draft: Danniher pick #10, Grundy pick #18
2013 Draft: Patrick Cripps pick #13
2014 Draft: Lever pick #14, Heeney pick #18
2015 Draft: Hipwood pick #14, Rioli pick #15

My point is, would you rather take a gamble and try to draft someone like Talia, Fyfe, Lynch, Greene, Docherty, Adams, Danniher, Grundy, Cripps, Lever, Heeney, Hipwood or Rioli, or trade that pick for someone who would be fringe best 22 like Salem?

Daniher would have gone no.1 in his draft if not for old f/s rules.

But I do agree with the rest of your point.

 

[Metapod]

Daniher would have gone no.1 in his draft if not for old f/s rules.

But I do agree with the rest of your point.

Just like Naish would go no.1 if not for f/s rules?

 

[Tiger_Of_Old]

salem could be a good houli replacement but no way is he worth 2 first rounders.

Rather Saad from the suns.

 

[Tiger_Of_Old]

Friday night cant come soon enough

Be careful what you wish for Wacky,No doubt at some stage on the game day thread the whole side will be put up for a trade with Salem.

 

[Gosha]

I regret bringing up Salem

 

[Frustrated Tiger]

2 first rounders for Salem

Definitely....

 

[RememberRoyce]

Daniher would have gone no.1 in his draft if not for old f/s rules.

But I do agree with the rest of your point.

Except Heeney and Hipworth were taken cheaply because of the academy rules. Then of course we have hindsight. But I agree, there are always v.good players in the 12-18 pick bracket. I really wanted Lever.

 

[energyquant]

I'll have a go at this. First round draft picks are gold. Superstars aren't locked exclusively to the top 10, many guns are picked in the teens. There's a reason AFL clubs value first round picks; because you can often draft future franchise players with these picks:

2009 Draft: Daniel Talia pick #13, Fyfe pick #20 (just outside first round).
2010 Draft: Tom Lynch GCS variety pick #11
2011 Draft: Greene pick #11, Docherty pick #12, Taylor Adams pick #13
2012 Draft: Danniher pick #10, Grundy pick #18
2013 Draft: Patrick Cripps pick #13
2014 Draft: Lever pick #14, Heeney pick #18
2015 Draft: Hipwood pick #14, Rioli pick #15

My point is, would you rather take a gamble and try to draft someone like Talia, Fyfe, Lynch, Greene, Docherty, Adams, Danniher, Grundy, Cripps, Lever, Heeney, Hipwood or Rioli, or trade that pick for someone who would be fringe best 22 like Salem?

[One small quibble: I'd leave Daniher and Heeney out of this list - they were FS/Academy picks and in reality, top 3 picks in their draft year].

Some very good (potentially great) players there and I think I understand the point you are making - first rounders usually have a lot of upside potential and can go on to become superstars.

Often, that upside is overrated. I've rebuilt your list, but moved one pick earlier. It's hit and miss. Vlaustin is a very good defender, but may not make it as a midfielder. Guys like Tomlinson have only now become "first 22" players. Others have been delisted or are about to be. Too early to tell on the 2015 boys.

2009 Draft: Kane Lucas pick #12, Ben Griffiths pick #19
2010 Draft: Daniel Gorringe pick #10
2011 Draft: Billy Longer pick #8, Adam Tomlinson pick #9, Liam Sumner pick #10
2012 Draft: Nick Vlaustin pick #9, Josh Simpson #17
2013 Draft: Ben Lennon pick #12
2014 Draft: Lachie Weller #13, Kyle Langford #17
2015 Draft: Charlie Curnow pick #12, Matt Kennedy pick #13

If I had wanted to, I could have picked out a few "busts" from each year and claimed the draft produces garbage players. That would have been bad analysis.

The draft is a crapshoot, where an earlier pick is good to have but no guarantee of producing an elite player. If Richmond wants to win a flag with our current squad, we can consider trading away some potential (which will only be useful to us in season 2020 and beyond) for ready-made players who are a known quantity.

Forget the Salem trade. I just picked it up as an example. My broader point is simple: I'd trade potential in 2020 for a proven performer that fills a gap in 2018/2019. Good players fighting for spots with strong coaching can win a flag. Let's build that team, rather than hoping to draft the next Buddy Franklin.

Cheers.

Dave P.

 

[tigerz18]

would anyone want this option:

Trade 2x 2017 first rounders, plus Miles/Lennon/Titch to GC - get Lynch and a 2nd round pick? use that 2nd on Naish.

i think that adding a Lynch to this team would boost it immensly that a big trade like that could help enough to sacrifice a 1 of our first rounders (as we will probably have to use the other on Naish). and still be able to get naish with our 2nd and 3rd picks.

or are we not able to trade 1st rounders this year as we used our pick 6 last year?

 

[Gosha]

I think there's a 0% chance of us signing Lynch