All things horse racing

[Leviathan Pie]

Posted this in the punting forum, but I'll post it here too.

Some early ones I'm looking at Saturday.

Caulfield - I Did It Again, Shoals, Brave Smash, Big Duke, Ravi, Jamaican Rain/Petition.

Rosehill - Dawn Wall, Menari/Dracarys, Sanctioned, Up n Rolling.

Dawn Wall one I've had a woody for, for a while.

Haven't looked at the odds or anything (suspect a few will be short) but all of the above have high level of talent IMO.

Caulfield R3 No.11 - SIN TO WIN.

Marked it $2.50 - getting +$3.50 at this point.

Only half-way through pricing the card personally, but really good value early that.

 

[No SPIN]

100% right about Galileo. We weren't patient enough with them, they also struggled on firmer AUS surfaces.

In relation to the breeding industry itself, yes we breed speedy 2yo's etc. because thats where the demand is.

Everyone wants to, as a breeder, win the Golden Slipper/Blue Diamond and then progress onto the Guineas as a 3yo. And thats basically it.

Agree - and the focus is on those races is because they are stallion making races. Not many Stallions are made from other longer distance races. When the reward is so great, if your well bread colt can win these races, its not surprising we breed to this bias.

The other issue which I think is probably even more likely to explain the 2yo bias, is that the average owner doesn't have the patience to pay bills until a horse is 3 or 4yo before going to the races.
We forget that in England racing is a rich mans sport, so paying bills until a horse is 3 or 4 is not an issue, and hence their focus on historically prestigious staying races over sprints.

 

[No SPIN]

I ment Montjeu's bred in Aus, Green Moon was an import, but yes, sonething half as good as him would be handy

Green Moons Melb Cup, very memorable for me.
Quinella with Fiorente paid $750 and I had it 10 times.
I was told Fiorentes former trainer in England said the horse was flying with GAI, and to put into multiples.
Pure luck - no great analysis involved.

 

[donkeyballs]

Certainly weighted to win.

How much did it carry last week again?

 

[Kirby]

How much did it carry last week again?

61kg off the top of my head.

I think he goes around at 56.5kg in the cup which is up from his win with 52kg last year..

 

[Kirby]

I'm backing Merchant Navy at $9 tomorrow to knock off those highly fancied Sydneysiders, Menari and co.

Irresistible each way odds. Get on!

 

[Lockyer24]

I'm backing Merchant Navy at $9 tomorrow to knock off those highly fancied Sydneysiders, Menari and co.

Irresistible each way odds. Get on!

The clockers and data types think it's no chance. But improvement will make up any perceived gap.

 

[Saintly Viewed]

Green Moons Melb Cup, very memorable for me.
Quinella with Fiorente paid $750 and I had it 10 times.
I was told Fiorentes former trainer in England said the horse was flying with GAI, and to put into multiples.
Pure luck - no great analysis involved.

Was it the exacta ie exact order that paid $756 on our tote I believe
And $506 or so the quinella.

Pretty good result either or

 

[Lockyer24]

Who wins the Melbourne Cup?

I actually prefer the second and third faves at the moment - Bonneval and Humidor. They have to get the trip though, the latter I suspect might max out at 2400 but Bonneval could be it.

 

[Leviathan Pie]

Agree - and the focus is on those races is because they are stallion making races. Not many Stallions are made from other longer distance races. When the reward is so great, if your well bread colt can win these races, its not surprising we breed to this bias.

The other issue which I think is probably even more likely to explain the 2yo bias, is that the average owner doesn't have the patience to pay bills until a horse is 3 or 4yo before going to the races.
We forget that in England racing is a rich mans sport, so paying bills until a horse is 3 or 4 is not an issue, and hence their focus on historically prestigious staying races over sprints.

Exactly right, especially r.e ownership in the UK.

 

[Leviathan Pie]

I'm backing Merchant Navy at $9 tomorrow to knock off those highly fancied Sydneysiders, Menari and co.

Irresistible each way odds. Get on!

He's certainly the un-tapped runner of the race, needs to find 2-3 lengths & Sydney way of going are queries - but he's a serious colt.

Will again improve at a mile, too.

 

[THATSGOLD]

I actually prefer the second and third faves at the moment - Bonneval and Humidor. They have to get the trip though, the latter I suspect might max out at 2400 but Bonneval could be it.[/QUOTE
What about 20-1 horse that could get up?

 

[Leviathan Pie]

Ventura Storm.

 

[PieBeast]

Tiberian, St Michel and Francis of Assisi are good hopes at $20 + imo.

 

[northpie]

Gents
Love the thread. What you think of admiral Deus chances in Melb cup and will it run in Caulfield. Up?

 

[Frank Gallagher]

I'm backing Merchant Navy at $9 tomorrow to knock off those highly fancied Sydneysiders, Menari and co.

Irresistible each way odds. Get on!

Yep, me too, need to see how the tracks playing though, if the rail comes in it probably won't suit backmarkers.

Just checked, rail is out 9 for the entire circuit, which makes sense with the cup meeting coming up soon, should suit backmarkers.

Just realised Merchant Navy is running in Sydney, strange move IMO.

 

[Leviathan Pie]

Gents
Love the thread. What you think of admiral Deus chances in Melb cup and will it run in Caulfield. Up?

3rd highest rated Jap stayer of the season (quality) and will give a super account of himself. His Tenno Sho 4th earlier this year was excellent.

Will run both Caulfield & Melbourne Cups, and is right in top 3-5 contention for both.

Would lean more Caulfield Cup, personally, at this stage.

 

[Saintly Viewed]

Tiberian, St Michel and Francis of Assisi are good hopes at $20 + imo.

I'm on the Francis Of Assisi bandwagon.
Seeing is believing.
His magnificent win in the Queen Elizabeth was an eye opener.
Granted weaker field, but 10 lengths.

 

[Frank Gallagher]

I'm not impressed with Merchant Navy going to Syd.

 

[Frank Gallagher]

I'm not impressed with Merchant Navy going to Syd.

 

[Frank Gallagher]

campaigner of a site.

 

[BEEG]

I'm backing Merchant Navy at $9 tomorrow to knock off those highly fancied Sydneysiders, Menari and co.

Irresistible each way odds. Get on!

Had a text passed onto me from one of the owners, the are very bullish on it and expect it to win, travelled extremely well.

 

[Saintly Viewed]

Had a text passed onto me from one of the owners, the are very bullish on it and expect it to win, travelled extremely well.

Old saying,

Nothing improves a racehorse more than ownership

 

[BEEG]

Old saying,

Nothing improves a racehorse more than ownership

That's a racing saying, I will get 2,3 text a year asking what's bullish mean.

 

[Saintly Viewed]

That's a racing saying, I will get 2,3 text a year asking what's bullish mean.

If the text comes from El Patron, Then just agree with them.

El Patron another name for Pablo Escobar