Outlook Rocky: he likes an expensive Tawny

[royboys4eva]

Strikes me that the club and Rocky have come to an arrangement if a club is willing to pay him silly money and we get band 1 comp then he is off. If clubs are only willing to pay a little bit more than us and we are only going to get pick 19 for him then we will consider offering him a little more depending on our needs through the trade period. I think the club and Rocky want to stay together but are doing there best for each party.

 

[royboys4eva]

Personally I want him to stay and we can't afford to lose players like him with such a young list. Let's not forget before the shoulder injury he was the leading the clearances in the afl and daylight was second. More importantly going forward he would be more than handy playing forward and kicking a couples goals a week and the guy has stuck fat with the club though a lot of tough times. Would love to see Rocky run out for us in a finals match - Grand Final would be even better, things change quickly look at the Doggies and now the Tigers.

 

[Football Pope]

Strikes me that the club and Rocky have come to an arrangement if a club is willing to pay him silly money and we get band 1 comp then he is off. If clubs are only willing to pay a little bit more than us and we are only going to get pick 19 for him then we will consider offering him a little more depending on our needs through the trade period. I think the club and Rocky want to stay together but are doing there best for each party.

Same....

 

[winged1]

I don't think our offer will change. I have said for a while ball is in Rocky's court.

Gut says he stays, but an extra year somewhere at similar money might be enough. The issue is contract length and we need to stick firm.

 

[james Dean]

Can't see Carlton giving us Band 1 compo, would move their pick back

I doubt that would be a factor in all honesty. If the AFL deem whatever the value of his contract to be band 1, then Carlton are going down a spot in the order either way.

Might as well be that at least we get Rockliff out of it, considering it will almost certainly mean we lose any chance of drafting Rayner.

 

[Football Pope]

I don't think our offer will change. I have said for a while ball is in Rocky's court.

Gut says he stays, but an extra year somewhere at similar money might be enough. The issue is contract length and we need to stick firm.

Dunno..he is a clearance specialist and has been mentioned before his shoulder injury he was leading the league by miles on clearances.. If we want him, our offer will change... If we are set to let him go, you'd have to ask what the Clubs plans are for our midfield.

 

[briztoon]

I doubt that would be a factor in all honesty. If the AFL deem whatever the value of his contract to be band 1, then Carlton are going down a spot in the order either way.

Might as well be that at least we get Rockliff out of it, considering it will almost certainly mean we lose any chance of drafting Rayner.

I fully expect Rayner would still be available to you in such a scenario.

 

[james Dean]

I fully expect Rayner would still be available to you in such a scenario.

I can see Brisbane passing on him once for LDU or Dow, but not twice. Plus GC would surely take him at 3

 

[cotter101]

I can see Brisbane passing on him once for LDU or Dow, but not twice. Plus GC would surely take him at 3

I think we'd pass twice. GC would pass as they can't afford the risk.

 

[Lazza16]

Dunno..he is a clearance specialist and has been mentioned before his shoulder injury he was leading the league by miles on clearances.. If we want him, our offer will change... If we are set to let him go, you'd have to ask what the Clubs plans are for our midfield.

Clearance - 10m knock on or dribble kick to nowhere in particular.

 

[briztoon]

I can see Brisbane passing on him once for LDU or Dow, but not twice. Plus GC would surely take him at 3

A lot of talk about Stephenson on our board.

Could see going either LDU or Dow at 1, and Stephenson at, 2. With GC drafting which ever mid we don't.

 

[DashinD]

Clearance - 10m knock on or dribble kick to nowhere in particular.

Sometimes. Also sometime with Rocky, it's a creative handball to put a teammate in space.

 

[Big Sauce 21]

Clearance - 10m knock on or dribble kick to nowhere in particular.

Better off leaving it for the other team hey ?

 

[winged1]

Dunno..he is a clearance specialist and has been mentioned before his shoulder injury he was leading the league by miles on clearances.. If we want him, our offer will change... If we are set to let him go, you'd have to ask what the Clubs plans are for our midfield.

I don't think Noble works that way and when the main concern is length we shouldn't move on that.

 

[Gadzorks]

leaving for $$ is harder than it seems for some players. Riskatelli crying. Much harder than it seems.

 

[MacMum]

leaving for $$ is harder than it seems for some players. Riskatelli crying. Much harder than it seems.

It only affects the loyal types imo...Riska was a true Lion, but the money was too good to refuse, which made it so difficult for him.

..saw he was playing again next year, seems to be over his injury. Hope he goes well.

 

[Gadzorks]

It only affects the loyal types imo...Riska was a true Lion, but the money was too good to refuse, which made it so difficult for him.

..saw he was playing again next year, seems to be over his injury. Hope he goes well.

Same for rocky.

 

[Roylion]

Strikes me that the club and Rocky have come to an arrangement if a club is willing to pay him silly money and we get band 1 comp then he is off. If clubs are only willing to pay a little bit more than us and we are only going to get pick 19 for him then we will consider offering him a little more depending on our needs through the trade period. I think the club and Rocky want to stay together but are doing there best for each party.

That's how I tend to read the current situation as well.

It's fortunate that Rockliff is a restricted free agent and that the Lions can match any offer from another club. Brisbane are prepared to let Rockliff go, but only if there is a very good reason to do so. Pick 2 is that very good reason, Pick 18/19 may not be.

To me IF Rockliff decided to nominate for example Carlton (who appear to be the front-runners at the moment) it might play out similar to the Dangerfield to Geelong trade. Dangerfield told Adelaide he wanted to exercise his rights as a restricted free agent and join Geelong at the end of the season. The Cats did not lodge an offer for Dangerfield but rather went straight to a trade.

David Noble, who negotiated the Dangerfield trade, said at the time the trade provided more compensation than would have been available under free agency rules, which he said left affected clubs with little room to move.

So IF Rockliff nominates Carlton as his preferred club, because of an unofficial offer from the Blues, depending on that offer, Brisbane may tell Carlton that they will match an offer in order to force a trade. That trade would provide more compensation than would have been available under free agency rules.

For Dangerfield the Cats gave up midfielder Dean Gore as well as picks #9 and #28. The Cats gained Dangerfield and Adelaide's third-round draft pick which at that time was #50.

Now Rockliff clearly isn't in the class of Dangerfield, but he's still a very good player. The question to be asked is will Brisbane let Rockiff go for a compensatory pick at either Pick 18 or 19 or will they try and force a trade for something better? At the moment Carlton have Pick 3 as their only pick in the first two rounds, but may have other picks coming in if Gibbs is traded to Adelaide. Currently Port Adelaide (the other club linked with Rockliff) have Pick 29 as their first pick in the draft.

 

[Flea_29]

gR

That's how I tend to read the current situation as well.

It's fortunate that Rockliff is a restricted free agent and that the Lions can match any offer from another club. Brisbane are prepared to let Rockliff go, but only if there is a very good reason to do so. Pick 2 is that very good reason, Pick 18/19 may not be.

To me IF Rockliff decided to nominate for example Carlton (who appear to be the front-runners at the moment) it might play out similar to the Dangerfield to Geelong trade. Dangerfield told Adelaide he wanted to exercise his rights as a restricted free agent and join Geelong at the end of the season. The Cats did not lodge an offer for Dangerfield but rather went straight to a trade.

David Noble, who negotiated the Dangerfield trade, said at the time the trade provided more compensation than would have been available under free agency rules, which he said left affected clubs with little room to move.

So IF Rockliff nominates Carlton as his preferred club, because of an unofficial offer from the Blues, depending on that offer, Brisbane may tell Carlton that they will match an offer in order to force a trade. That trade would provide more compensation than would have been available under free agency rules.

For Dangerfield the Cats gave up midfielder Dean Gore as well as picks #9 and #28. The Cats gained Dangerfield and Adelaide's third-round draft pick which at that time was #50.

Now Rockliff clearly isn't in the class of Dangerfield, but he's still a very good player. The question to be asked is will Brisbane let Rockiff go for a compensatory pick at either Pick 18 or 19 or will they try and force a trade for something better? At the moment Carlton have Pick 3 as their only pick in the first two rounds, but may have other picks coming in if Gibbs is traded to Adelaide. Currently Port Adelaide (the other club linked with Rockliff) have Pick 29 as their first pick in the draft.

Great post
The problem I see is I don't think there is a general consensus on what Rocky is actually worth.
Compensation Pick 2 seems too far fetched and pick 18/19 is obviously unders. However, would a team like Carl be prepared to off-load pick 10 (say from Adel via Melb) in the trade? I don't think Carl want Rocky as much as Geel wanted Danger, so there lies the problem of whether Carl would want to trade for Rocky if they can get him as a free-agent.
As for Port, they have no chance of satisfying us in a trade, unless of course they use next years first rounder.

I totally agree with your summary - its either pick 2 or a mid first rounder OR we match the bid a he re-signs.

 

[Roylion]

Compensation Pick 2 seems too far fetched and pick 18/19 is obviously unders.

Agree. A compensatory pick of 18/19 isn't worth losing Rockliff. Carlton have Pick 3, but they won't give that up for Rockliff. Adelaide have Pick 17 (currently), but I can't see that going to Carlton for Gibbs and then on-traded to the Lions for Rockliff. Not much difference to Pick 18/19 obviously.

However, would a team like Carl be prepared to off-load pick 10 (say from Adel via Melb) in the trade? I don't think Carl want Rocky as much as Geel wanted Danger, so there lies the problem of whether Carl would want to trade for Rocky if they can get him as a free-agent.

As far as I understand, Carlton can't recruit Rockliff as a free agent if Brisbane matches any bid they make. From that point on there has to be either a trade or a re-signing with the Lions.

As for Port, they have no chance of satisfying us in a trade, unless of course they use next years first rounder.

Which is likely to be somewhere between 12th-18th.

 

[John_Proctor]

on Footy Classified last night they had Damien Barrett on doing a trade period summary.

SH!T there are a lot of players on the move this year.

I got the impression that Rocky is gone to Carlton. They said Silvagni has approached Brisbane to discuss the situation (presumably trying to get a feel for if we offered x would you match). Hutchy then said "they'd accept pick 18 as compensation for Rockliff" and noone at the table countered that opinion.

Lets say he is worth pick 10 in 'fair market value'. That 'fair market value' is diminished by the fact he is a free agent (albeit restricted) and by the fact if we ended in a trade situation he has already chosen to walk out on the club. So if Danger was 9+28 when he would have been worth two top 10 picks on open market its hard to imagine we'd get much more than pick 15 for Rockliff which isn't too far away from 18 anyway!

At this point I just don't see why he hasn't re-signed if that is his intention.

 

[Roylion]

on Footy Classified last night they had Damien Barrett on doing a trade period summary.

SH!T there are a lot of players on the move this year.

I got the impression that Rocky is gone to Carlton. They said Silvagni has approached Brisbane to discuss the situation (presumably trying to get a feel for if we offered x would you match). Hutchy then said "they'd accept pick 18 as compensation for Rockliff" and noone at the table countered that opinion.

Have they 'discussed' the situation? Silvagni may well have said that we're going to make an offer to Rockliff, which may be more than what the Lions are offering. Barrett claims that the Lions are offering $500,000 - $550,000 for three years which he also claims is 'low-ball.' If true, I'd probably agree. I'd be surprised if Noble and Ambrogio have given Carlton an answer. They may well be trying to find out what Rockliff is worth on the market. And they do have final right of reply.

Lets say he is worth pick 10 in 'fair market value'. That 'fair market value' is diminished by the fact he is a free agent (albeit restricted) and by the fact if we ended in a trade situation he has already chosen to walk out on the club.

So did effectively Dangerfield and Bryce Gibbs. One was traded for a much better deal than a late first rounder and the other stayed with his club, which of course was helped by the fact he was contracted.

So if Danger was 9+28

9 + 28 + Dean Gore.

when he would have been worth two top 10 picks on open market its hard to imagine we'd get much more than pick 15 for Rockliff which isn't too far away from 18 anyway!

Hence Noble and Ambrogio may decide to match. I'm not sure why it wouldn't be considered, if the compensation wasn't up to what the Lions would expect for their 27 year old vice-captain and one of their best players. I can't imagine the Lions having salary cap issues that would prevent matching Carlton's offer.

At this point I just don't see why he hasn't re-signed if that is his intention.

Testing the market I'd say. As is his right.

 

[scoman]

If Rocky leaves for Carlton and we get pick 18 or 19 then we have completely stuffed this up.

 

[Big Sauce 21]

If Rocky leaves for Carlton and we get pick 18 or 19 then we have completely stuffed this up.

Lunacy

 

[scott_the_man]

The way I see it, Rockliff wants to remain a Lion but is just trying to milk as much money out of us as he can. He is waiting for other clubs to throw big figures at him so there's a chance we up our initial contract offer. That's exactly what I would be doing if I was in his shoes.