Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2018 AFL Draft Almanac

[briztoon]

I should also give my first piece for the year a plug: http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/22717282/afl-jlt-series-christoper-doerre-draftee-wrap

Going through team-by-team, looking at the best draftee, breakout players and rebound player for 2018 at each club. Handy for some ideas for those Supercoach and AFL Fantasy players.

While we're waiting for the 2018 draft prospects to get playing the real stuff, I'm happy to entertain questions about chances of those from last years draft or recent drafts or whatnot to get games and score decently, score/games predictions etc. #Readyfortheseason

Or if anyone has questions about the 2018 prospects, fire away.

Just from a Lions perspective, pretty spot on Knightmare. Bell will be given a chance early to replace Rockliff. Otherwise, expect to see Mathieson step up.

 

[Knightmare]

Just from a Lions perspective, pretty spot on Knightmare. Bell will be given a chance early to replace Rockliff. Otherwise, expect to see Mathieson step up.

Bell I view as an essential component to Brisbane's midfield if the club want to win some games in 2018. He's not a good ball user (he's very much someone who just bombs long by foot), but the size and strength at stoppages. He can swing the clearance differential in your favour as it did when he played through the midfield for Carlton.

Mathieson can pick up greater midfield minutes. Terrific ball winner as a junior and has the capabilities at AFL level. There will be minutes for a number of mids to go through there.

 

[Moeydw]

Hey Knightmare, if the draft were to happen right now where would you see Isaac Quaynor, Will Kelly and Liam Holt-Fitz sitting?

 

[philthy05]

I should also give my first piece for the year a plug: http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/22717282/afl-jlt-series-christoper-doerre-draftee-wrap

Going through team-by-team, looking at the best draftee, breakout players and rebound player for 2018 at each club. Handy for some ideas for those Supercoach and AFL Fantasy players.

While we're waiting for the 2018 draft prospects to get playing the real stuff, I'm happy to entertain questions about chances of those from last years draft or recent drafts or whatnot to get games and score decently, score/games predictions etc. #Readyfortheseason

Or if anyone has questions about the 2018 prospects, fire away.

Regarding breakout players Bonner is exciting but I think Howard is gonna blow people away. Not many 199cm guys move like him. Last week it looked like the crows were trying to kick it to him. He will have some dominant games now he is settled back there.

Top end of this draft looks great, are we expecting depth into later rounds to be great ?

 

[Knightmare]

Hey Knightmare, if the draft were to happen right now where would you see Isaac Quaynor, Will Kelly and Liam Holt-Fitz sitting?

All three can be national draft selections with strong seasons.

Quaynor has the most exposed form at this stage and is looking like a solid defender. Has some Harry O to him and could be a piece down back. I don't see him as an early choice, but 3rd round onward he would be a consideration with a solid season and can attract a bid. Can't see bids coming any earlier. There are too many better talents, which should be less viewed as a put-down towards Quaynor as much as it's an acknowledgement of how great this years draft is looking.

Will Kelly's draft stocks are unclear with his form less exposed playing APS, so it's less clear where he sits v the others. At APS level though he has shown some positive signs and looks draftable. Until he proves he can dominate against good competition, he looks like a late/rookie given how great some of the other KPPs are this year, but he does have enough to think he could rise up draft boards with a strong season.

Holt-Fitz could be an interesting solution up forward as a small pressure/crumbing forward. Playing in the NT, again this far out it's hard to know where he sits v everyone else having not seen him play against everyone else. He's another I'll put into the late/rookie basket as there is some serious top end forward talent this year, and Holt-Fitz has work to do to join that company.

I should stress, all three at this stage look potentially draftable. So the club would absolutely be tracking each of them with great interest this year. They all have scope to work their way up draft boards. Also from a list needs perspective, they're all suitable list fits, so I'd be hoping they all have incredible seasons as you want to go into a draft feeling fairly certain you're investing in best 22 type talents, and if they have the runs on the board, you can do that with greater confidence. It's better to pay more for a great player than pay little to fill up a list spot with a list clogger, when you may have had a chance at someone else who may have had better best 22 chances, so with any of those father/son and academy choices, you really have to take that attitude into their draft year of wanting to see them dominate rather than under-perform.

 

[Knightmare]

Regarding breakout players Bonner is exciting but I think Howard is gonna blow people away. Not many 199cm guys move like him. Last week it looked like the crows were trying to kick it to him. He will have some dominant games now he is settled back there.

Top end of this draft looks great, are we expecting depth into later rounds to be great ?

With Howard we saw signs at the end of last year that he should break through, and I agree with you that this is the year he will establish himself.

Outstanding against Adelaide. v West Coast serviceable.

By years end Howard may be Port Adelaide's best key defender.

As for the depth in this years draft. It's there. The reason being, it's not just Victoria with talent this year. SA, WA, QLD, NSW and Tasmania. Each state is producing talent better than last year and better than the state averages. You've also got in all positions - mid in/out, def key/gen, fwd key/gen, ruck, you've got a number of players who are draftable.

I'd be very surprised if any club picked only three players this year. There will be late and rookie gems at a higher than usual ratio. Count on it.

 

[lionshine]

Knightmare Curious on who you rate as the best midfield prospect at this early stage? I think the Lions have accumulated a decent core of elite blue chip talent in Andrews, Hipwood, McCluggage, Berry, Witherden, Cox and Rayner but we need to add another blue chip midfield prospect to that group.

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare Curious on who you rate as the best midfield prospect at this early stage? I think the Lions have accumulated a decent core of elite blue chip talent in Andrews, Hipwood, McCluggage, Berry, Witherden, Cox and Rayner but we need to add another blue chip midfield prospect to that group.

Brisbane have good young talent, particularly the young KPP talent coming through is impressive. More is needed through the midfield - particularly those dominant contested ball winners/stoppage players. Two extremely high end mids are needed for Brisbane to take the next step.

As for the best midfield in the game. Geelong is my choice with the sheer top end talent they have accumulated. Having Danger/Ablett/Selwood/Duncan in the same team is incredible if they're all healthy. They're all top 20 midfielders. That's pretty great in an 18 team competition. Danger I still view as the best in the game (ever so narrowly ahead of Martin though it's a genuine debate) and Ablett and Selwood remain in that top 10 conversation when healthy. Duncan became seriously good last year and would be in the top 15 discussion and should be in most top 20s by now assuming based on 2017 performance, particularly through the second half of 2017. Even for numbers after that big four, Geelong still have very good options. Cameron Guthrie is a very good mid when he gets to play through there. Scott Selwood and Sam Menegola are both very capable midfielders. Tim Kelly can also fit seamlessly into that group and can be Geelong's Daniel Wells equivalent - probably needing to fit more across half forward with Motlop needing replacing, but he'll get his stints through the midfield and go well through there.

 

[jjami15]

Brisbane have good young talent, particularly the young KPP talent coming through is impressive. More is needed through the midfield - particularly those dominant contested ball winners/stoppage players. Two extremely high end mids are needed for Brisbane to take the next step.

As for the best midfield in the game. Geelong is my choice with the sheer top end talent they have accumulated. Having Danger/Ablett/Selwood/Duncan in the same team is incredible if they're all healthy. They're all top 20 midfielders. That's pretty great in an 18 team competition. Danger I still view as the best in the game (ever so narrowly ahead of Martin though it's a genuine debate) and Ablett and Selwood remain in that top 10 conversation when healthy. Duncan became seriously good last year and would be in the top 15 discussion and should be in most top 20s by now assuming based on 2017 performance, particularly through the second half of 2017. Even for numbers after that big four, Geelong still have very good options. Cameron Guthrie is a very good mid when he gets to play through there. Scott Selwood and Sam Menegola are both very capable midfielders. Tim Kelly can also fit seamlessly into that group and can be Geelong's Daniel Wells equivalent - probably needing to fit more across half forward with Motlop needing replacing, but he'll get his stints through the midfield and go well through there.

Think he meet draftee prospect, could be wrong, but am also interested in the answer?

 

[Knightmare]

Think he meet draftee prospect, could be wrong, but am also interested in the answer?

Half asleep at the keyboard!

Best midfield prospect is Izak Rankine. He can play elsewhere as per a Shaun Burgoyne, but he'll impact games anywhere like none of the other small or medium size players in this draft. He's a freak in everything he does. There are taller/bigger guys who are higher level contested ballers, but just everything he does is freakish - from his ground ball pickups at full speed to his skills and hurt-factor with ball in hand.

 

[GoGrows]

Half asleep at the keyboard!

Best midfield prospect is Izak Rankine. He can play elsewhere as per a Shaun Burgoyne, but he'll impact games anywhere like none of the other small or medium size players in this draft. He's a freak in everything he does. There are taller/bigger guys who are higher level contested ballers, but just everything he does is freakish - from his ground ball pickups at full speed to his skills and hurt-factor with ball in hand.

i wonder if he'll accumulate the ball enough.

his hurt factor is huge, but is he a 15-20 touches/game guy or can he get to that 25-27 touches guy.

 

[Knightmare]

i wonder if he'll accumulate the ball enough.

his hurt factor is huge, but is he a 15-20 touches/game guy or can he get to that 25-27 touches guy.

Rankine finds enough of it. He won't be a 30 per game type, but he can get you 25+ per game and a goal if used as a mid, or 20+ per game and 2+ goals as a forward.

His numbers already are strong which is why I and many others are so high on Rankine - having all the hurt factor, but also the consistent, strong numbers each week.

I'll make the Burgoyne comparison a lot with Rankine. He is legit. He doesn't have his contested/clearance stuff up to Burgoyne's extremely high level. But everything else he has, and his impact/hurt factor and production is well and truly there.

 

[mattyc75]

Looking fgorward to yhis thread throughout yhe year

Sent from my SM-G950F using Tapatalk

 

[HedgeFund]

I should also give my first piece for the year a plug: http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/22717282/afl-jlt-series-christoper-doerre-draftee-wrap

Going through team-by-team, looking at the best draftee, breakout players and rebound player for 2018 at each club. Handy for some ideas for those Supercoach and AFL Fantasy players.

While we're waiting for the 2018 draft prospects to get playing the real stuff, I'm happy to entertain questions about chances of those from last years draft or recent drafts or whatnot to get games and score decently, score/games predictions etc. #Readyfortheseason

Or if anyone has questions about the 2018 prospects, fire away.

If Bailey Banfield is the best rookie prospect at Fremantle, why are they persisting with the pimply kid who had 19 touches and laid 9 tackles in the JLT game, whilst playing on Shuey and Gaff full-time in the middle?

 

[Knightmare]

If Bailey Banfield is the best rookie prospect at Fremantle, why are they persisting with the pimply kid who had 19 touches and laid 9 tackles in the JLT game, whilst playing on Shuey and Gaff full-time in the middle?

Both I fully expect to be regulars for Fremantle. I could have spoken about either, with both looking like they can become regulars.

Banfield achieving comparable numbers and doing so with mostly forward minutes rather than mostly midfield minutes I found to be (slightly) the more impressive. As someone cheaper priced in your fantasy formats and a lesser known, not being selected so early in the draft, I also felt Banfield would be the more interesting to highlight.

Brayshaw can become the better player with time, but Banfield being a year older has the capacity to have the better season of the two. And if I was to pick who would be the more consistent/solid in 2018, I'd tip Banfield having a 484 disposals, 112 tackle season at WAFL League level v Brayshaw who was still playing TAC Cup, and coming out of that junior system likely has more peaks and troughs.

 

[Tjblues]

Hey mate, looking forward to reading the thread throughout the year.
Interested in your early thoughts of the Carlton f-s prospects, namely Silvagni and Manton? Also wondering your thoughts on the ceiling of a bigger bodied player like Jack Bytel? Do you think he has enough tricks to continue his output at the highest level?
Thanks

 

[theGav56]

If Bailey Banfield is the best rookie prospect at Fremantle, why are they persisting with the pimply kid who had 19 touches and laid 9 tackles in the JLT game, whilst playing on Shuey and Gaff full-time in the middle?

both Banfield and Brayshaw look set for terrific seasons.

The odd inclusion in the Fremantle analysis was Bennell ahead of A Pearce in the Rebound Season. He looks set to be a lock at CHB and to have an impact immediately, whereas Bennell has yet to look like he will actually play.

 

[Knightmare]

Hey mate, looking forward to reading the thread throughout the year.
Interested in your early thoughts of the Carlton f-s prospects, namely Silvagni and Manton? Also wondering your thoughts on the ceiling of a bigger bodied player like Jack Bytel? Do you think he has enough tricks to continue his output at the highest level?
Thanks

Manton is still a developing player. Hasn't starred yet, but with a preseason, he may well have progressed.

Silvagni of the two is the one who looks like a probable pick at this stage. He hasn't had as much exposed form, not playing TAC Cup but has performed well for in the APS system for Xavier as a kpp. Early days, but he could be a mid draft choice with a good season, but until he plays TAC Cup, U18 Champs, it's guesswork as to where he may fits.

As for Bytel. He is probably the most advanced stoppage player in the draft, so he already has that going for him. He also can play some forward, so that gives him another option and enough flexibility not to limit a side too much. He isn't your perfect prospect. Not a good kick, not one of those types with x-factor. But for mine he's very draftable. The key in terms of translating output to the next level is whether they can win the contested ball. If the answer is yes, and overwhelmingly with Bytel, he can, he'll still be able to win it at the next level.

 

[Knightmare]

both Banfield and Brayshaw look set for terrific seasons.

The odd inclusion in the Fremantle analysis was Bennell ahead of A Pearce in the Rebound Season. He looks set to be a lock at CHB and to have an impact immediately, whereas Bennell has yet to look like he will actually play.

I considered mentioning Pearce, and it's a heck of an endorsement to be included in the leadership group after not playing a game last year. In terms of meaning to the team, absolutely his return is of great value.

But as I said before, being fantasy football slanted - or trying to cater for that audience, with Pearce a shutdown key defender who doesn't find his own ball and offers absolutely zero fantasy relevance and didn't find much of it during the JLT series either. I decided against mentioning him.

Compare that to Bennell who is cheap as anything in the various fantasy football formats, and if he gets back into the team can score very well understanding how great he has been previously.

 

[x_les_x]

Hey KM do you have height/weights for mitch mead and dallas hill, two players the magpies have contracted?

 

[Knightmare]

Hey KM do you have height/weights for mitch mead and dallas hill, two players the magpies have contracted?

I only have the measurements of those from the u18 champs last year at this stage.

Anyone have any public resources with all the player heights for the SA u18s? I'm sure one of the regular SA viewers has the connections to help us out.

 

[JEZZAS BLUES]

Heres a link for the SA academy it gives you some of the info you want..
http://sanfl.com.au/2018-mcdonalds-sa-u18-academy/

 

[Turbocat]

Insane draft this year. Best I've covered and at least the best since 2008, if not with the potential to reach super-draft territory. Great for KPPs. Great for outside types - including forwards and backs. Strong for inside mids also. There are ruck options.

Even with all the Academy and Father Son prospects this year. It's still a very strong draft.

Lukosius is the best junior I've seen. Rankine is as exciting as any mid/fwd I've seen. It's exciting.

The Kings are both good but probably getting overhyped when considering some of the others in this draft. And that is less getting down on them as much as realising there are a lot of other incredible prospects this year.

The key this year that makes this draft so great is all the interstate players. It's not just Victoria this year that can produce top end talent. The quality is incredible in SA/WA/QLD/NSW this year and even Tasmania is looking better.

A year it would not be at all suprising to see clubs offering up established talent to get into the first round.

Mmm ... I suspect you are correct but I cant see too many club giving picks away for journeymen? And its probably going to be the likes of Geelong and Sydney that clubs will call I guess...

 

[Knightmare]

Mmm ... I suspect you are correct but I cant see too many club giving picks away for journeymen? And its probably going to be the likes of Geelong and Sydney that clubs will call I guess...

Doesn't mean anything will get done.

Clubs likely will all share a similarly positive view towards this draft.

It's just you may have clubs offing up more than they normally would to get a first rounder.

We saw in 2001 that trade of pick 1 with Fremantle offering Trent Croad and Luke McPharlin. There will be similar attempts likely this year, not that the bottom sides are necessarily going to go for such offers. But it's unusual to see moves like this with good players give up for a pick (unknown quantity).

 

[Turbocat]

Doesn't mean anything will get done.

Clubs likely will all share a similarly positive view towards this draft.

It's just you may have clubs offing up more than they normally would to get a first rounder.

We saw in 2001 that trade of pick 1 with Fremantle offering Trent Croad and Luke McPharlin. There will be similar attempts likely this year, not that the bottom sides are necessarily going to go for such offers. But it's unusual to see moves like this with good players give up for a pick (unknown quantity).

No of course not ... but what you have mentioned make sense to me ..where as the majority of clubs will look at this draft to setup their list , the more picks the better... looking at the mother of all drafts like 2001 and what Geelong managed to do in exactly the right draft can become a foundation.. there will be other clubs that are at the top of the ladder that always preoccupied with the now and will trade for the right players.

Some clubs may see the talent in this draft as a chance to put icing on the talent they already have.. look at the GC board and they , understandably , are already looking at who they should take and other clubs are only worried about making the most of what they already have. Future be dammed.

To get one of those very early picks ..a Hodge scenario will cost too much I feel.. but the picks from 8 to 18 .. may be gettable and as you say those picks will reap players more like much earlier picks in most drafts. Just what type of players get offered for those picks I wonder. If I was Geelong and I could get a player who was a very early pick originally in a role they normally can get hold of for a pick this year and maybe next then Id consider trading ( with AFL approval). What would it take to get 2mp for example.

Every club will know the value of this draft.. and I cant see anyone trading R1 picks for the likes of (in Geelong terms) a Murdoch. It will take Duncans and player at or just short of A level talent. ..and therefore Id say it only clubs with a view beyond the immediate that will trade players of that value.

Put it this way who on the Pies list would you trade for an extra R1 pick?