Bluemour Discussion Thread VIII

[Coops93]

Do you see a fundamental issue with trading for Wines and then taking best available with the picks we have left?

Hypothetical -

Carlton get Wines, Pick 11, 2019 Pick 10
Port Adelaide get Pick 1, 2019 Pick 6

Points alone it values Wines at pick 4, but the reality is it probably values him a bit higher based on the unique prospect of a generational key forward from SA going to an SA club. We'd hope to slingshot up the ladder a bit more and close the gap between the 2019 picks.

We still take the best available at Pick 11, whether that's a key tall like Max King (maybe sliding due to injury?), a mid/fwd like Rozee or Taylor, or a runner like Hill.


A scenario like that doesn't reduce the number of players we cycle, in fact it allows us to cut the list by one more. It does however, sacrifice draft position in a strong draft to bring in a known quantity who fills a need.

On a strategic level, where does a scenario like that sit with you? Assume, for the sake of the argument, that Gaff doesn't want to join us as well, so he's not a viable alternative.

It's not a bad idea, if we were to go ahead with this and pass up Luko we would be putting a lot of faith in McKay and Kerr. We're basically saying we're so confident in those 2 that we're going to pass up the best forward prospect since Nick Riewoldt some 15 years ago. It's a big call to make and would be very, very ballsy. I like what I've seen from both but I'm not ready to crown them 200 game 500+ goal superstars just yet and as such I'm less confident in passing on Luko, even if it means missing Wines.

 

[Marc Shmurf 3]

Wines is very unlikely to be at our club next year, and its even more unlikely that we will use pick 1 as it stands to trade him in for it.

 

[AndyLucimitis]

Precocious - Welcome to Carlton

 

[Blue__Balls]

It's not a bad idea, if we were to go ahead with this and pass up Luko we would be putting a lot of faith in McKay and Kerr. We're basically saying we're so confident in those 2 that we're going to pass up the best forward prospect since Nick Riewoldt some 15 years ago. It's a big call to make and would be very, very ballsy. I like what I've seen from both but I'm not ready to crown them 200 game 500+ goal superstars just yet and as such I'm less confident in passing on Luko, even if it means missing Wines.

It's not necessarily putting all our eggs in the McKay/Kerr basket though, is it.

Charlie is being talked up as potentially the best key forward in the competition (in time). We've seen some good signs from McKay so far, Kerr looks an honest workman, TDK is getting some significant praise, and BSOS gives us a cheap dip at another option.

We'd only need one of McKay/Kerr/TDK/BSOS to come good for us to have a dangerous forward set-up with Curnow + Partner.

Couple that with Lukosius being an SA boy, do we lose out if he does a Boyd in a year or two? Obviously we don't want to plan as if every interstate player will want to go home, but if we can bring in a quality player like Wines who wants to be here, and still take a top 10 draftee, that has to be a valid consideration.

Once we part with 1, other trades probably become a bit more flexible as well.

10 and 23 to GC for 5 (depending on which players they like, they'd have 4, 10, 23). We end up with Wines and 5.
Or 23 and 30 to Sydney or North for their first (more points for academy players). We end up with Wines, 10 and 12.

I reckon there would be ways to trade Pick 1 in a deal for Wines, and still be able to position ourselves strongly in this draft.

 

[Arr0w]

Firstly, I believe Wines will re-sign. If he doesn't, all Victorian clubs would be after his signature, so whoever he would nominate, they would create space, to add him to the list. Even if it was a side in the top 8, they would move players on to improve cap space and required picks

Think youve been pretty bullish on Lukosius but yes think weve had this conversation in the past imo we need to be very specific re our selections in the draft and trade .
As i certainly wouldnt be banking on Free agency doing squat for us in the next couple of years . Thats fools gold in our situation . We have been specific to date with our rebuild by building the spine first of which i feel we went overboard with the amount of talls weve recruited .
We now need to be specific in finishing off our list .
I see not just midfield being an area we need to improve but the general run in the side and on the list .
Including another small defender medium and small forward all with pace as we have a lot of slowish players on our list .
I certainly dont see recruiting 2 talls in our first 4 picks if Ben Sos does indeed get selected as good for what we need .
Id be trading pick 1 if we finish last anyway but trading it most likely wont happen .

Yes I am bullish on Lukosius, but unless we have pick 1, he will be gone, although that has no bearing on how I view trading and FA. I don't subscribe to,
"we went overboard with the amount of talls we've recruited". We will lose, at least 7 of our 13 talls over the next 3 years. If you drill down deeper, you will see that our list, under 25, has a shortfall in genuine KPD's, in terms of quantity/quality, it's Weithering and Macreadie. Rowe, Asos, will be gone come our window, with Jones not far behind. Marchbank and Plow are 3rd talls. Currently our list has many wholes that we hope are filled by young players, so targeting specific types in the draft is fought with danger. Where our list is at, IMO, you target shortfalls by trading and future FA. I have no issue trading pick one if we have it, despite not agreeing with others, if GC are stupid enough to trade 4 & 5(Lynch compo), i would take it and run

Wines is still pretty young and has a long future ahead of him. If someone in that 24-28 age bracket is available and they are high quality like wines or gaff that should take priority

Absolutely it should be a priority, but it still gets back to what it is worth to the list as a whole now and in the future. Many a side have tried to become or remain relevant, by giving up valuable commodities. Pies are a perfect example, yet are still mid table. Personally, there are better bang for your buck options, such as FA

Do you see a fundamental issue with trading for Wines and then taking best available with the picks we have left?

Hypothetical -

Carlton get Wines, Pick 11, 2019 Pick 10
Port Adelaide get Pick 1, 2019 Pick 6

Points alone it values Wines at pick 4, but the reality is it probably values him a bit higher based on the unique prospect of a generational key forward from SA going to an SA club. We'd hope to slingshot up the ladder a bit more and close the gap between the 2019 picks.

We still take the best available at Pick 11, whether that's a key tall like Max King (maybe sliding due to injury?), a mid/fwd like Rozee or Taylor, or a runner like Hill.


A scenario like that doesn't reduce the number of players we cycle, in fact it allows us to cut the list by one more. It does however, sacrifice draft position in a strong draft to bring in a known quantity who fills a need.

On a strategic level, where does a scenario like that sit with you? Assume, for the sake of the argument, that Gaff doesn't want to join us as well, so he's not a viable alternative.

Fundamentally, I don't have an issue as such, but it opens up the possibility of overpaying, what happens if Port finish in the top 4 next year, while we are still bottom 6? As you mentioned, this is a strong draft, but in a series layers. The top 6-8 are standouts, then the next layer of 10-12 are very even. I would rather have a crack at the top 8 in the next 2 years, compared to player 11 and 12-18 in 2019. If Gaff, was not a viable option, then I would turn my attention to other solid FA

IMHO, a premierships side is not determined, by the quality of the top 6, but the quality of the bottom 6. Would Guthrie and Wallis be better investments, to our bottom 6 or Wines alone, when weighing up value spent?

 

[Blue__Balls]

Wines is very unlikely to be at our club next year, and its even more unlikely that we will use pick 1 as it stands to trade him in for it.

Any inkling as to whether the club plan on trading aggressively, or are we looking at a draft/free agency strategy for now?

 

[Arr0w]

Wines is very unlikely to be at our club next year, and its even more unlikely that we will use pick 1 as it stands to trade him in for it.

Sanity

 

[Coops93]

It's not necessarily putting all our eggs in the McKay/Kerr basket though, is it.

Charlie is being talked up as potentially the best key forward in the competition (in time). We've seen some good signs from McKay so far, Kerr looks an honest workman, TDK is getting some significant praise, and BSOS gives us a cheap dip at another option.

We'd only need one of McKay/Kerr/TDK/BSOS to come good for us to have a dangerous forward set-up with Curnow + Partner.

Couple that with Lukosius being an SA boy, do we lose out if he does a Boyd in a year or two? Obviously we don't want to plan as if every interstate player will want to go home, but if we can bring in a quality player like Wines who wants to be here, and still take a top 10 draftee, that has to be a valid consideration.

Once we part with 1, other trades probably become a bit more flexible as well.

10 and 23 to GC for 5 (depending on which players they like, they'd have 4, 10, 23). We end up with Wines and 5.
Or 23 and 30 to Sydney or North for their first (more points for academy players). We end up with Wines, 10 and 12.

I reckon there would be ways to trade Pick 1 in a deal for Wines, and still be able to position ourselves strongly in this draft.

It's more the potential of Luko vs the rest.

If his career does go the way it's projected imagine the forwardline of him + Charlie? Also, I believe Charlie will spend more time on ball when the forward line is more stable (not full time, but some time). So it's more that we think so much of our potential young forwards that we're willing to pass up on the generational talent of Luko. Even if one of those guys work out what are the chances they end up a Riewoldt level player? It's unlikely I'd say. So to pass on him is putting a lot of confidence in what we have/may have shortly. If he does get homesick then what we'll get in return for him should be immense. At least 2 first round picks, probably then some, so even from an investment point of view it would pay off.

I don't believe the addition of Wines and lower draft picks is worth missing him. Also, I highly doubt Port will give us 2 first round picks and Wines for 2 first round picks. That's crazy considering some teams will probably give them 2 first round picks for Wines alone.

 

[Metalcrusher]

Sanity

Thats why I said earlier it would take 2 x firsts to pry Wines away from Port ... then obviously Wines would need to want/agree to come to Carlton ....

Truly pie in the sky stuff ....

It was a nice dream though ...

 

[Curnivore]

What do we want to argue about now?

 

[Metalcrusher]

Whether Numb3rs is actually human .......

 

[inyourcool]

Wines is very unlikely to be at our club next year, and its even more unlikely that we will use pick 1 as it stands to trade him in for it.

Positive news - AFAIC too high a price to pay for a trade. As good as Wines is selling the farm type trades for any player should be a thing of the past. FA a different story - at least we don't sacrifice high end, top value draft picks in the process

 

[thylacine60]

Any inkling as to whether the club plan on trading aggressively, or are we looking at a draft/free agency strategy for now?

never question the oracle - he appears, he delivers, he disappears......that is all..........blessed are we..............but he's killing our post counts now....

 

[HereComesJuddy]

Giving pick 1 or 2 even for that matter was always going to be a messiah move. Sos doesn't play that way. When you get the chance to get THE BEST KID IN THE LAND, you don't throw that opportunity away.

 

[bmaurizio]

A captain has to lead on field in every aspect of the game.
He cannot chose when to or nor too, put his body on the line.
he can't berate players for not having a dip, when he, dosent have a dip, himself..

Very disrespectful comments for our captain that's whose the team plenty.
I can only admire Marc Murphy for his endovour and professionalism notwithstanding the duress of his position for many years.
He's a great CFC captain , very talented footballer and will be rembered as such.
I don't necessarily want a bone head tough captain that ploughs into
packs and perhaps can hit a target to our advantage.
It's important to be assertive, but finess and professionalism is what's required.

 

[Marc Shmurf 3]

P.S We take Lukosius right now if we have pick 1. Being a South Aussie has no relevance.

 

[katmanblue]

Sanity

Music

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[Arr0w]

P.S We take Lukosius right now if we have pick 1. Being a South Aussie has no relevance.

Even more sanity

 

[HereComesJuddy]

Lukosius and Chalie could potentially be a better 1/2 combo that Franklin and Roughead. With both being elite runners it doesn't really put them into the catergory of tall and lumbering kpps. Even having McKay added to the forward line still doesn't make us too tall. Its a mouth watering forward line

 

[MileHigh]

Still dont see us finishing last which rules out Lukosious or potential bait to get Wines from Port for pick 1. Cam Guthrie best value for money prospect imo. Injured this season meaning the value he sees himself vs the club will be different without form to go off. Ablett already pried Lang loose to look for other opportunities and with Kelly coming in as well I just think he might fo the same. Really love the way he goes about it and after he asked Judd to swap jumpers after a game itd only take a phone call from the champ and sitting board member to persuade him our way.

 

[Soapy V]

Still dont see us finishing last which rules out Lukosious or potential bait to get Wines from Port for pick 1.

IMO injuries will determine where we finish

 

[Coops93]

Lukosios and Chalie could potentially be a better 1/2 combo that Franklin and Roughead. With both being elite runners it doesn't really put them into the catergory of tall and lumbering kpps. Even having McKay added to the forward line still doesn't make us too tall. Its a mouth watering forward line

Would allow Curnow to rotate into the middle, leaving Luko and McKay forward so it really wouldn't take away. Luko possibly could as well, given it sounds like he's a top athlete as well. Great flexibility

 

[HereComesJuddy]

Would allow Curnow to rotate into the middle, leaving Luko and McKay forward so it really wouldn't take away. Luko possibly could as well, given it sounds like he's a top athlete as well. Great flexibility

Imagine him starting his career as a forward pocket. Next year would be very exciting indeed

 

[Coops93]

Still dont see us finishing last which rules out Lukosious or potential bait to get Wines from Port for pick 1.

Who drops below us? Brisbane are playing far better than us and St Kilda have looked better the last couple of weeks, pushing some good teams. Imo GC are under performing and aren't as bad as they seem and if they find form could snag a couple of unexpected wins.

I think we could jag a couple of wins in the second half, but I just don't see anyone else dropping beneath us more than us being so bad we can't find a win.

 

[AceAndy]

Who drops below us? Brisbane are playing far better than us and St Kilda have looked better the last couple of weeks, pushing some good teams. Imo GC are under performing and aren't as bad as they seem and if they find form could snag a couple of unexpected wins.

I think we could jag a couple of wins in the second half, but I just don't see anyone else dropping beneath us more than us being so bad we can't find a win.

Hard to argue with this.