Bluemour Discussion Thread IX

[Blue_Fusion]

If we end up with pick 1, this is how we should play it imo:

- Trade pick 1 nice and early (1st or 2nd day of trade window opening) for a package of first rounders (Adelaide most likely), maybe sending one of our second-round picks back.
- Only after pick 1 is gone does Shiel publicly request a trade to Carlton.
- Send one of the newly acquired first-round picks to GWS (or next year's first), use other first rounders to draft best mids.

My preference is not to trade for Shiel at all but as others keep pointing out if he wants to make the move now there's not much we can really do.

And that's the problem. There's nothing to suggest he'll just want out this year. If he really wanted to come to us, then he'd be stupid to want to leave this year.

He knows full well we'd have to cough up a first round pick which is only going to be detrimental for his future success. Why dilute the talent in the team you want to join? Why not just take one more year with GWS and see if they can get a flag? If they can - great, he leaves as a premiership player. If not, then safe to assume the ship has sailed anyway. Either way it makes more sense for him to want out end of next year.

Oh and there's also the likelihood of his asking price going up end of next year too since other clubs will make an offer.

 

[Unknown Origin]

I will vomit if it's Shiel for pick 1 straight swap. Surely not????

On [device_name] using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[F_therest]

And that's the problem. There's nothing to suggest he'll just want out this year. If he really wanted to come to us, then he'd be stupid to want to leave this year.

He knows full well we'd have to cough up a first round pick which is only going to be detrimental for his future success. Why dilute the talent in the team you want to join? Why not just take one more year with GWS and see if they can get a flag? If they can - great, he leaves as a premiership player. If not, then safe to assume the ship has sailed anyway. Either way it makes more sense for him to want out end of next year.

Oh and there's also the likelihood of his asking price going up end of next year too since other clubs will make an offer.

It doesn't always work this way.

Shiel may also really want to move to melbourne and want to move now.

If his heart is already set on Carlton for example, he may struggle with the idea of staying with gws for another year when he doesn't want to be there.

You said yourself at the end he will get more offers at higher dollar value end of next year...which is why IF he wants to come to us this year, we make it happen before another team steals him from us.

 

[Weiterbot23]

They will have major headaches resigning in 2019 …

Shiel
Kelly
Himmelberg
Tomlison
Hopper
De boer
Lobb
Coniglio

Those eight names are gunna take some serious dollars not to walk.

De boer?

 

[F_therest]

I will vomit if it's Shiel for pick 1 straight swap. Surely not????

On [device_name] using BigFooty.com mobile app

Literally no one has suggested that

 

[Weiterbot23]

I will vomit if it's Shiel for pick 1 straight swap. Surely not????

On [device_name] using BigFooty.com mobile app

I'd want Patton too, minimum

 

[F_therest]

They will have major headaches resigning in 2019 …

Shiel
Kelly
Himmelberg
Tomlison
Hopper
De boer
Lobb
Coniglio

Those eight names are gunna take some serious dollars not to walk.

And they can't afford to lose them all or even a decent number of them in the one off season...tht will completely screw them.

They will try to keep them but if they leave, better to stagger the departures.

If we are offering something juicy like pick 1 or 2019 first involved, and Shiel wants out, gws may just be tempted.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

It doesn't always work this way.

Shiel may also really want to move to melbourne and want to move now.

If his heart is already set on Carlton for example, he may struggle with the idea of staying with gws for another year when he doesn't want to be there.

You said yourself at the end he will get more offers at higher dollar value end of next year...which is why IF he wants to come to us this year, we make it happen before another team steals him from us.

That's looking at it from our perspective. From his perspective, he will get a more lucrative deal if he waits another year. And he'll be joining a team with more top end talent. It just works out so much better for him. Plus he doesn't have to sweat on a deal being done, he knows the AFL will compensate GWS accordingly.

I seriously doubt he has a massive urge to leave this year after having re-signed for 2 years just over 12 months ago.

I also SERIOUSLY doubt SOS will trade pick #1.

 

[F_therest]

As much as I am loathe to get Shiel (if we're giving up pick 1 this year) if we let it go to next year it'd be closer to 1 mil than 750k. The only way that changes is if Shiel has his heart set at being at Carlton and knows that we need to preserve some salary cap space to guarantee him the best opportunity at a premiership. It wouldn't surprise me if we got him this year he'd be looking at 850k.

Definitely a factor to consider...next year he will get more higher offers which means he costs more cap space.

Plus those extra offers may mean we lose him altogether.

If he wants to come to us now don't play games and make him wait a year...you move straight away. We have assets to make it work.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

And they can't afford to lose them all or even a decent number of them in the one off season...tht will completely screw them.

They will try to keep them but if they leave, better to stagger the departures.

If we are offering something juicy like pick 1 or 2019 first involved, and Shiel wants out, gws may just be tempted.

Hahahaha if we offer pick #1 GWS may be tempted? They'll take it and run for the hills.

Thank God we have SOS in charge of these decisions.

 

[F_therest]

Hahahaha if we offer pick #1 GWS may be tempted? They'll take it and run for the hills.

Thank God we have SOS in charge of these decisions.

I said pick 1 involved in the deal, not a straight swap.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

I said pick 1 involved in the deal, not a straight swap.

What else would you involve?

 

[Cliffords Blues]

What else would you involve?

Have you been reading the last 5-10 pages?
Poster have been putting up their own theories on what the swaps would be if this years #1 pick is on the table.
Especially the question you have just asked.
Might be worth a read

 

[HereComesJuddy]

Have you been reading the last 5-10 pages?
Poster have been putting up their own theories on what the swaps would be if this years #1 pick is on the table.
Especially the question you have just asked.
Might be worth a read

Blue asked Farktherest . I doubt he was interested in others thoughts

 

[BluesRule]

What else would you involve?

2019 first round pick and get GWS 2nd round pick back.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

I've seen people mentioning pick #9 + Shiel for #1.

GWS currently have #13...

 

[DoCherty15]

In 4 years time there is no Murphy, Simpson, Thomas, Rowe, Casboult ... Kreuzer would be on his last legs if still playing, and Ed might be the only one still around.

did you really expect those players to be in our next premiership team?

 

[Canyouhearthedrums]

I will vomit if it's Shiel for pick 1 straight swap. Surely not????

On [device_name] using BigFooty.com mobile app

This attitude confuses me a bit. If pick 1 turned out to be a Shiel, we’d do a dance. Not to mention the very very real risk that you get something less than that. No certainty with the draft.

So why do we think pick 1 is overs for someone that is a certainty to be a Shiel in the sense that he is literally Dylan Shiel?

 

[BLUEALLTHRU]

Take the best avail with pick 1 or 2, IMO.

 

[Carl]

As much as I am loathe to get Shiel (if we're giving up pick 1 this year) if we let it go to next year it'd be closer to 1 mil than 750k. The only way that changes is if Shiel has his heart set at being at Carlton and knows that we need to preserve some salary cap space to guarantee him the best opportunity at a premiership. It wouldn't surprise me if we got him this year he'd be looking at 850k.

So Shiel is definitely not moving at years end. Why would you when you can make $150-$200k a year more if you move next year. On a five year contract that could be an extra 1 million. West Sydney can't be that bad to move a year early.
With Murphy staying i think we will chase a free agent instead. Makes sense.

 

[jackn]

I will vomit if it's Shiel for pick 1 straight swap. Surely not????

On [device_name] using BigFooty.com mobile app

I’ll be happy if it’s Shiel and Kelly for pick 1.

Obviously that won’t happen but no idea why you’re talking about Shiel for 1straight swap either.

 

[Juddalenko]

He has a year left on his contract at the end of this year. We can get him for free, ready to play in 2019. Surely we hold all the cards if Shiel tells GWS he wants to go. They get what they can this year, or lose him for nothing next.

 

[Canyouhearthedrums]

I've seen people mentioning pick #9 + Shiel for #1.

GWS currently have #13...

A 12 pick downgrade to obtain a top 10-12 midfielder in the league would be the very embodiment of daylight robbery.

 

[smashbox gill]

I’ve said it before there is zero chance GWS would let him go a year early when they are a chance to win a premiership. It would mean they are giving up, would be shocking list managment, ruin their culture and set precedent to other players. No chance

 

[Cliffords Blues]

Blue asked Farktherest . I doubt he was interested in others thoughts

exclusive posting, interesting concept
PM maybe?