Bluemour Discussion Thread IX

[Arr0w]

I very much doubt we will be giving up pick 1 for Shiel and exchanging other picks

As good as he is, SOS will not do a deal like that

 

[ray8182]

Don't forget GWS are chasing a flag. Getting rid of Shiel this year means they will damage their chances significantly next year.

They will be chasing a flag for the next 4 or 5 years. Having an all or nothing mentality for one year(next year) would be short sighted by Gws. If either Carlton or gws think they just got to have sheil next year, no matter what, it will result in poor long term planning and will sacrifice the chance to contend over a longer period of time.


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[Blue_Fusion]

That’s why I think it would take a godfather offer to wrestle him away from there. It would have to be pick 1 straight up, maybe with a late pick coming back to us. Maybe if they win it this year, they would be more willing to do a deal, because losing Shiel puts a dint in their 2019 chances.

Agreed. And that's another reason why it won't happen.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

They will be chasing a flag for the next 4 or 5 years. Having an all or nothing mentality for one year(next year) would be short sighted by Gws. If either Carlton or gws think they just got to have sheil next year, no matter what, it will result in poor long term planning and will sacrifice the chance to contend over a longer period of time.

I disagree. GWS won't be contenders for the next 4-5 years mate. Next year will be their last chance imo.

 

[Cliffords Blues]

Please let us use pick #1 (if we end up with it) on this young SA kid.
Concentrate on getting GAFF as a FA this year.
Shiel next year as a FA.
SA kid, Gaff, Shiel, and all the other picks we keep to draft the best we can over the next 2 draft/trade periods

If the young SA kid is as good as everyone is saying, and wants to head home after 2 years, well 2 x 1st round picks to us (potentially)
Carlton just keep on winning with very smart draft/trade moves by SOS

 

[HereComesJuddy]

Or
A bashed up washed up 27/28yo Cripps as against a well managed beast with still plenty to offer ...

Adding Shiel this coming year wont change how Cripps plays! Shiel isnt an in and under player.

You try telling cripps to go hang over at the forward pocket. He wants in on the action.

Shiel adds no longevity to Cripps playing future

 

[GapInIkonPark]

Is having Shiel 22 games earlier really going to help Cripps that much?

I mean come on. Lets not be shortsighted and go the messiah complex.

Trading pick 1 for 22 games from Dylan Shiel is ******* ludicrous, even if we get pick 9 back.

It is not just Cripps.
It is a chop out for our young midfielders (Dow, SPS, Fisher, Kennedy) which lets them develop as Cripps, Shiel, Ed and Murphy (and Lang) are pitted against the best midfielders in other sides, leaving our younger ones against midfielders 5-8.
And Shiel has the pace to break the lines and deliver well into F50 which is something we don’t do very well.

If we miss on Gaff, Sloane, Wallis, Dahlhaus, GHS et al, which senior body would you rather bring in?

 

[Arr0w]

I disagree. GWS won't be contenders for the next 4-5 years mate. Next year will be their last chance imo.

I still think they have a couple more years after next year

They have some great young talent, that with another season or 2 will start to come into their own

 

[Canyouhearthedrums]

Yeah on paper sounds good. But after applying some logic, I've come up with the fact that it is a very strong chance he won't be a top 10-12 midfielder in 3 years time when we realistically start becoming flag contenders.

Just be patient. One season is not that long to wait.

What makes you say he won’t be as good in 3 years time? What is he, 24?

The thing I can never get my head around is the level of certainty that people attach to draft picks, particularly no 1s. Dylan Shiel (hypothetically) would be the best number one pick of the last decade.

Bypassing the uncertainty of the draft has a real value that people overlook.

 

[Iamcarlton]

Is having Shiel 22 games earlier really going to help Cripps that much?

I mean come on. Lets not be shortsighted and go the messiah complex.

Trading pick 1 for 22 games from Dylan Shiel is ******* ludicrous, even if we get pick 9 back.

If it means like a lot of other beasts such as Dangerfield Martin Degoey etc spending 30 or 40 %game time up forward for Cripps rather than 100% midfield hell yeah . Think we'll still need another midfielder from somewhere for it to work but yes it will and is most likely in the clubs plans .
A fit Kennedy bigger and fitter Dow and Shiel is a good start on a competent midfield without Cripps gives us that extra beast up forward youve been craving as well .

 

[ray8182]

I disagree. GWS won't be contenders for the next 4-5 years mate. Next year will be their last chance imo.

How old were many of hawthorn best players when they won 3 premierships in a row?

It’s fair enough you have that opinion, it’s possible, but it’s very speculative. Doubt there’s anything really to back it up.


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[Canyouhearthedrums]

If you look from a different point of view. We are still rebuilding believe it or not. Shiel will cost you 1 mil per year for 5 years and his career nearly over. Pick 1 you get for 12 years. First 2 little money with little impact. Next 2 average money and top 10 player. Next 3 above average pay and top 3-5 player. Next 5 years on $800k (hopefully plays for less because loyal to club) and top 3 player.
This scenario relies on pick 1 being same standard as Shiel and no injuries to either player.

All very valid points and, fwiw, I’m formally in the camp of continuing to grow our own.

But I think you’re overlooking a key point in your analysis, which is the draft is a lottery when it comes to working out who will be the AA type player and who will be the solid honest player. How many AAs have gone number 1 in the last decade? Zero.

 

[HereComesJuddy]

It is not just Cripps.
It is a chop out for our young midfielders (Dow, SPS, Fisher, Kennedy) which lets them develop as Cripps, Shiel, Ed and Murphy (and Lang) are pitted against the best midfielders in other sides, leaving our younger ones against midfielders 5-8.
And Shiel has the pace to break the lines and deliver well into F50 which is something we don’t do very well.

If we miss on Gaff, Sloane, Wallis, Dahlhaus, GHS et al, which senior body would you rather bring in?

Plenty of others than that mob

 

[HereComesJuddy]

What makes you say he won’t be as good in 3 years time? What is he, 24?

The thing I can never get my head around is the level of certainty that people attach to draft picks, particularly no 1s. Dylan Shiel (hypothetically) would be the best number one pick of the last decade.

Bypassing the uncertainty of the draft has a real value that people overlook.

26 start of next year.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

How old were many of hawthorn best players when they won 3 premierships in a row?

It’s fair enough you have that opinion, it’s possible, but it’s very speculative. Doubt there’s anything really to back it up.

They aren't Hawthorn. There's plenty to back it up. If they struggle in their peak then post-peak/late prime is going to be even tougher.

Very strong chance they lose one of Shiel, Kelly and/or Cogs. Losing one of them will hurt them greatly.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

What makes you say he won’t be as good in 3 years time? What is he, 24?

The thing I can never get my head around is the level of certainty that people attach to draft picks, particularly no 1s. Dylan Shiel (hypothetically) would be the best number one pick of the last decade.

Bypassing the uncertainty of the draft has a real value that people overlook.

Pretty sure he starts next year age 26. So in 3 years, he'll be 29 and that's usually when players start to decline.

 

[GapInIkonPark]

Plenty of others than that mob

I forgot Brayshaw and Tyson from Melbourne.

But of the ‘plenty’, who do you see is gettable and better than Shaw, O’Shea, Mullet, Graham, Kerridge, Lamb ... ?

 

[Canyouhearthedrums]

26 start of next year.

It’s hard. Both we and the club could reasonably expect to be getting close in four years time, at which point Shiel still adds a lot to the side. But the margin for error is obviously lower, because he quickly drops off after that.

 

[Canyouhearthedrums]

Pretty sure he starts next year age 26. So in 3 years, he'll be 29 and that's usually when players start to decline.

cmon. 29 is squarely in most players prime.

 

[Iamcarlton]

Adding Shiel this coming year wont change how Cripps plays! Shiel isnt an in and under player.

You try telling cripps to go hang over at the forward pocket. He wants in on the action.

Shiel adds no longevity to Cripps playing future

They wont be wanting Sheil to be Cripps because he simply isnt a clearance contested beast like cripps is not many are .
But he helps and with a fit Kennedy who will provide a lot more grunt than he has this year by simply being fit and playing added to a bigger and fitter Dow it can certainly help Cripps by adding Shiel .
The club most likely wont be stopping at Shiel either as the club has stated themselves they want to add mature players so im not sure why you have this strong stance against Sheil .

And yes i do believe cripps will be happy to play forward more as i believe he has stated previously that it is a desire to play more forward minutes .

 

[Metalcrusher]

Adding Shiel this coming year wont change how Cripps plays! Shiel isnt an in and under player.

You try telling cripps to go hang over at the forward pocket. He wants in on the action.

Shiel adds no longevity to Cripps playing future

You just can't change the nature of a beast. Cripps will crack in until he can't, simple as that.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

I still think they have a couple more years after next year

They have some great young talent, that with another season or 2 will start to come into their own

They do but it takes more than talent. Time will tell.

 

[Benaly28]

I forgot Brayshaw and Tyson from Melbourne.

But of the ‘plenty’, who do you see is gettable and better than Shaw, O’Shea, Mullet, Graham, Kerridge, Lamb ... ?

All those gone next year.

 

[ray8182]

All very valid points and, fwiw, I’m formally in the camp of continuing to grow our own.

But I think you’re overlooking a key point in your analysis, which is the draft is a lottery when it comes to working out who will be the AA type player and who will be the solid honest player. How many AAs have gone number 1 in the last decade? Zero.

I think you have to look more in-depth at recent drafts to understand why that is. Firstly talls have been taken most of time at pick 1, which take longer to develop. Secondly it’s a lot easier to be all Australian as a medium size player than it is a tall. Fewer spots available for talls, especially after you take buddy into account. The last point is the interesting one and that is the game has changed and talls have to be very mobile as team defences are strangling young key forwards who aren’t agile and mobile enough. If new rules come into play this may all change.

My opinion about the hit and miss of the draft is that every year clubs and recruiters get smarter. Over the last 10-15 years clubs have been refining there talent spotting and identification. Each year they have another draft to look back at and see which players succeeded and failed and what they got right and wrong. It’s like another test they get to learn from. I’m more optimistic than many about clubs drafting abilities today.


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[ray8182]

They aren't Hawthorn. There's plenty to back it up. If they struggle in their peak then post-peak/late prime is going to be even tougher.

Very strong chance they lose one of Shiel, Kelly and/or Cogs. Losing one of them will hurt them greatly.

I just don’t see anything other than 1 person speculating about how well Gws players will play when aged 25-30. None of us know the answer to that.


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