AFL 2018 - AFL Round 19

[SM]

Have taken north -15.5 @ $2.50. North have the home ground advantage and big outs for eagles.

Was actually only $2.35, but still a nice win.

 

[chrisdon16]

Anyone in Perth, how's the weather? No goals from the 10 minute mark in the 2nd quarter

 

[maskmcgee]

And it looks like 8/9 for the round.

 

[chrisdon16]

And it looks like 8/9 for the round.

Didn't you say West Coast by a few goals and Freo + yesterday?

 

[maskmcgee]

Didn't you say West Coast by a few goals and Freo + yesterday?

Yes. Yesterday. When the results were generated, on Monday, It used the lines of the time. Since between Monday and Saturday night, the lines have changed, I told you what points result it predicted. On Monday, it predicted that Port Adelaide would cover the, at the time, 15.5 point line by 3.5 points. By last night, the line was 20.5. It predicted that Hawthorn would cover the Monday line of 14.5 points by 0.5. Last night, the line was 15.5 points.

 

[RooTed]

Yes. Yesterday. When the results were generated, on Monday, It used the lines of the time. Since between Monday and Saturday night, the lines have changed, I told you what points result it predicted. On Monday, it predicted that Port Adelaide would cover the, at the time, 15.5 point line by 3.5 points. By last night, the line was 20.5. It predicted that Hawthorn would cover the Monday line of 14.5 points by 0.5. Last night, the line was 15.5 points.

So you missed WC, Dogs +20.5, and Freo if the game continues this way?

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[mookieb]

Interesting discussions earlier in the week around trends. Personally I think it's very beneficial to look into trends to try and take into account seemingly random occurrences. Sometimes you get it right other times not so much.

I'm sure sometimes a pattern of events is just general variance, but other times it's indicative of an underlying advantage or system for one team. In cases like this I don't think you can spend the time drilling down on every game to see if one of multiple factors are different. I mean if you can't use older results because multiple things like team line ups change and you can't use recent results because of recency bias then effectively your ignoring any sort of trend.

The problem with betting on games based on each game being an individual event (as I assume most do with their player models) is that your effectively ignoring information about what happened leading into the game. GC were a rabble last game - does that game impact on the confidence of the playing group or should it be ignored because it can't be quantified?

Geelong is a good example. I was backing for them to be very sluggish vs WB based on their performance trend after having a bye. The trend seems pronounced yet the personnel would change significantly from year to year. For me they would be unbackable next year. https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/do...s/news-story/81533e7de3f216c9861dc6d009eab068

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

And it looks like 8/9 for the round.

0 from 3 today.

Not even close.

 

[RooTed]

In the bush this week so no computer to work it out and only using crayons. My best TGS bet this week looks like GC Blues u/159.5 @ SB. Next best Tiges Pies o/169.5. Good luck all.

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Came out OK this round but I'm no weather man and like all punters I had to have a flutter on games I should've left alone. Still up and ready for R20. Should be a few white flags up by some teams so expecting any modelling could go out of whack.

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[chrisdon16]

Yes. Yesterday. When the results were generated, on Monday, It used the lines of the time. Since between Monday and Saturday night, the lines have changed, I told you what points result it predicted. On Monday, it predicted that Port Adelaide would cover the, at the time, 15.5 point line by 3.5 points. By last night, the line was 20.5. It predicted that Hawthorn would cover the Monday line of 14.5 points by 0.5. Last night, the line was 15.5 points.

Your system predicted Hawthorn to win by 14. The line was 14.5 and you decideded to bet this on Monday? Even though yesterday you said you were getting on the +? I'm confused. Maybe just post your official plays one at a time so it's not confusing.

 

[maskmcgee]

So you missed WC, Dogs +20.5, and Freo if the game continues this way?

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Uh, no - read the post.

 

[maskmcgee]

Even though yesterday you said you were getting on the +?

Quote the part of the post where i said I was placing a bet yesterday.

 

[maskmcgee]

0 from 3 today.

Not even close.

Actually it was dead right. Hawks -14.5, Port -15.5. Just like in the poll at the top of the page. As they were the odds on Monday. Of course, those odds weren't available last night. So instead I told you the margins it predicted.

 

[chrisdon16]

Quote the part of the post where i said I was placing a bet yesterday.

It liked West Coast to win by a few goals, but this was before their late changes, so I'm not sure how accurate it will be.
It predicts Port by 18 and Hawthorn by 14, which right now is all three +'s.

West Coast by 2 goals L
"All 3 +'s"
Bulldogs + L
Freo + L
"8/9 wins"
Surely you can understand why people are confused?

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

It liked West Coast to win by a few goals, but this was before their late changes, so I'm not sure how accurate it will be.
It predicts Port by 18 and Hawthorn by 14, which right now is all three +'s.

So

WC +6.5
WB +20.5
Freo +15.5

Like what was available last night?

 

[Sabbathen]

Interesting discussions earlier in the week around trends. Personally I think it's very beneficial to look into trends to try and take into account seemingly random occurrences. Sometimes you get it right other times not so much.

I'm sure sometimes a pattern of events is just general variance, but other times it's indicative of an underlying advantage or system for one team. In cases like this I don't think you can spend the time drilling down on every game to see if one of multiple factors are different. I mean if you can't use older results because multiple things like team line ups change and you can't use recent results because of recency bias then effectively your ignoring any sort of trend.

The problem with betting on games based on each game being an individual event (as I assume most do with their player models) is that your effectively ignoring information about what happened leading into the game. GC were a rabble last game - does that game impact on the confidence of the playing group or should it be ignored because it can't be quantified?

Geelong is a good example. I was backing for them to be very sluggish vs WB based on their performance trend after having a bye. The trend seems pronounced yet the personnel would change significantly from year to year. For me they would be unbackable next year. https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/do...s/news-story/81533e7de3f216c9861dc6d009eab068

You ignore things that can't be quantified, that is the point of a data driven model. It is impossible to put a value on "confidence" how do you know what is going through every players head coming into a game? The other week you cited Sloane's contract as an influencing factor to why Adelaide may win. How do you know every player was happy with that contract renewal and there were no sour grapes as their future contract offers may now be smaller? For factors like this you can usually come up with contradicting ones too. I want a model that is based solely on statistical data so you can apply regression analysis to future results, anything else is pretty much just betting with your gut.

 

[RooTed]

Uh, no - read the post.

Thought I did but whatever mate as long as you win that's good. Lines move constantly so for all here it's easier to nominate the exact proposition you are using etc.

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[chrisdon16]

ESS/SYD - o166.5
Essendon -3.5
Richmond -15.5
Brisbane +34.5
GEE/BL - u179.5
ADE/MEL - o169.5
Melbourne WIN
West Coast -3.5
Port -18.5
WB/PA - u156.5 u147.5
FRE/HAW - o153.5

R19: 8-4 +3.45u
YTD: 82-63 +11.38u
O/A: 282-213 +41.92u

 

[Sabbathen]

Actually it was dead right. Hawks -14.5, Port -15.5. Just like in the poll at the top of the page. As they were the odds on Monday. Of course, those odds weren't available last night. So instead I told you the margins it predicted.

The big question is, what is the overall record for this year? You say it becomes more accurate as the season goes on so if it made 20 odd units over the last 3 weeks it must be up 70, 80 units for the year? Should be aiming for 40 odd units for the remainder of the season?

 

[RooTed]

ESS/SYD - o166.5
Essendon -3.5
Richmond -15.5
Brisbane +34.5
GEE/BL - u179.5
ADE/MEL - o169.5
Melbourne WIN
West Coast -3.5
Port -18.5
WB/PA - u156.5 u147.5
FRE/HAW - o153.5

R19: 8-4 +3.45u
YTD: 82-63 +11.38u
O/A: 282-213 +41.92u

Do you go 1u ea bet or is it scaled? I'm thinking I spread too much but I do like to have an interest on most games...

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[RooTed]

The big question is, what is the overall record for this year? You say it becomes more accurate as the season goes on so if it made 20 odd units over the last 3 weeks it must be up 70, 80 units for the year? Should be aiming for 40 odd units for the remainder of the season?

"It"? **** me. Are we trying to find the wizard of oz. LOL.

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[chrisdon16]

Do you go 1u ea bet or is it scaled? I'm thinking I spread too much but I do like to have an interest on most games...

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Yeah 1u each

 

[andwhenitcomes]

Few lined up this round:

Essendon/Sydney over 168.5 @ 1.90
Richmond over 13.5 goals @ 2.00
Melbourne +4.5 @ 1.90
Western Bulldogs under 64.5 @ 1.89

4/4, noice.

 

[lids2richo]

Actually it was dead right. Hawks -14.5, Port -15.5. Just like in the poll at the top of the page. As they were the odds on Monday. Of course, those odds weren't available last night. So instead I told you the margins it predicted.

I pm'd you. Any chance you can share where you found this system? We're all trying to help each other out

 

[Resarenco]

Seems a bit silly to be betting on every game at only 1 unit each. For example today you had Hawthorn at -13.5. A line that is 0.5 points to your models advantage. Aren't you better off putting 2 to 3 units on only 3-4 games each round. The games the model says that you have the best chance at winning. Also the model doesn't wait for teams to be released. I very much doubt any AFL line system would be predicting more then 65% of lines over an entire season.