Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2018 AFL Draft Almanac

[Harlequin Dream]

I havent been sure about Baker... wasn't paying as much attention to him whenever I watched his games as I was probably watching other players like TT, Chayce, or Fraser Turner closer and I have limited attention span But his recent games for Lauderdale I actually started to think he was a decent chance to be drafted and midfield is probably his best position, he seems agile enough and I like that he seems composed and willing to take the game on... but seems a bit projecty still and I am not sure if he will be good enough. But seems worth a late pick to find out.

Have you seen much of him? What are your thoughts?

Similar thoughts.

I have mostly seen him in the televised TSL games. He has started in the square frequently, however, he rarely reads the taps and instead uses his pace to collect the loose ball. Which is to be expected I guess as he has only played about 7 games in the middle at that level.

The strengths he does have is his composure and skill by hand. Rarely panics when under pressure and is able to get a handball to his teammate even while tackled.

The double clearance here is probably a good example of his play:

 

[Junior11]

Hi KM,
Just wanted to gauge your thoughts on whether you believe Jackson Hately or Ian Hill will be there around pick 14 & whether they would be a nice fit for Port? I'd love to see port trade picks 21 & 28 for Sydney's pick 14, Should suit Sydney with points for Blakey too.

 

[Knightmare]

Hi KM,
Just wanted to gauge your thoughts on whether you believe Jackson Hately or Ian Hill will be there around pick 14 & whether they would be a nice fit for Port? I'd love to see port trade picks 21 & 28 for Sydney's pick 14, Should suit Sydney with points for Blakey too.

They both could be.

The reality of this draft is after the first 8, the draft flattens out for the next 20 or so, so there are a number who could reasonably be picked in any order, making Hately and Hill both very possible chances around that point.

I'd honestly retain picks 21/28 ahead of moving it up to 14. I wouldn't be surprised to see a Hill make it through into the 20s. That's not to say he definitely won't go first round, but there is the chance he slides as he hasn't improved this year and his production has been low throughout the season. And we're talking about a small.

I'd snag a Sydney Stack in the 20s with one of those picks and maybe a Sam Sturt if I could. Noah Gown could represent value in the 20s. Likewise Jordan Clark, Ed McHenry. Xavier O'Halloran could slide through to there. Curtis Taylor could slide. Thomas Sparrow I really like if there. As with those first seven or eight picks, I see tremendous value in the 20s.

 

[foodles05]

Can definitely agree with you Jones' pressure and tackling both were excellent - as with ball winning and accumulation. No argument from me there.

I'm not talking highlights with Jones. I can't imagine his bad kicks would make highlight tapes? I'm talking about what I noted each game with his kicking. He wasn't hitting his targets.

This is backed up by Jones having 8 more ineffective than effective kicks throughout the sample of six games I have of Jones for the Allies including the practice match.

To be fair it is a really shit stat to quote. You can kick it perfectly and have the opposition beat your man and it be ineffective or it is dropped or fumbled. I am not saying you didn't watch the games to judge for yourself but when I am scouting and hear the CD guys calling out what is and isn't ineffective it just makes me realise how arbitrary the stats are.

 

[Knightmare]

To be fair it is a really shit stat to quote. You can kick it perfectly and have the opposition beat your man and it be ineffective or it is dropped or fumbled. I am not saying you didn't watch the games to judge for yourself but when I am scouting and hear the CD guys calling out what is and isn't ineffective it just makes me realise how arbitrary the stats are.

Efficiency are the stats available.

If I had access to kick ratings. I'd be quoting those stats.

As a sample of games increases. It definitely gives insight as there are more and more games where those numbers add up. And as with any stats, the key is the insight it offers in the context of their game.

I look at Jones' efficiency as representing his kicking accurately, which is why I quote those numbers.

I rarely make reference to kicking efficiencies in my weekly wraps because I feel they don't tell the complete story. There are times they're relevant and support what you see, which is where referencing kicking efficiency is of value as per the Jones example.

Another player I find the kicking efficiency of to be of interest is Bailey Smith. How high his kicking efficiency is for an inside midfielder really speaks to his incredible consistency by foot at his position.

It's a stat with value (mostly circumstantial and with complete contextual understanding). It just has it's limitations in value.

 

[dockersfever]

Hi KM,
Wondering your thoughts on Watts and Byrnes not being picked in the Futures game on grand final day? Were they stiff or do they not compare to the talent picked. Roughly where are they sitting for 2019 after impressive years.
Cheers

 

[maverick001]

KM, I'm very interested in Liam Stocker. Sounds like he's come home with a bit of a bang, and is rising up draft boards late (much like Tarantos and Andrew Brayshaws of years gone), just wondering though what you think the chances are of him still being around at the end of the first round (if Eagles receive an end of first round compo pick for a Gaff or Lycett for example), or early in the second round (Eagles using Gold Coast's second round pick that was traded for last year). Obviously that second round pick gets shunted back about 3-5 spots with compo picks coming in first round so might be a bit ambitious?

And if not, the likelihood of one of Caldwell or Duursma lasting until then? Sounds also like Valente would also be a decent option, despite being a bit slow. With decent size, good production and contested ball winning and acceptable skills/decision making, as an inside mid this would sound like a good package?

 

[maverick001]

One thing I've noticed over recent draft years is that, a couple months out from the draft the various top 10 or top 15 phantom rankings (not necessarily yours) feature a mix of KPPs, mids, and mediums/smalls who play forward or back in a ratio that might look something like this (as an example only):
- 7 or 8 mids
- 5 or 6 talls
- 2 or 3 medium/smalls whose best position is forward or back (not great midfield scope)

But by draft time the genuine mids seem to have become the hottest property, and end up dominating the top 10 picks especially on draft night, and the talls and mediums/smalls who don't play mid get shunted down the order quite a lot. Do you foresee something similar happening again this year?

I guess I am thinking guys like Valente, Stocker, Duursma (and to a lesser extent a Chayce Jones or Butters) may rise at the expense of guys who are HB/HF with midfield scope, or who as mids don't find as much of the footy as the aforementioned (referring to Quaynor, Collier-Dawkins, Hill, C Taylor, Thomas, even Clark).

I notice that your top 15 power rankings features 10 mids, so I suspect that you already value those genuine ball winners higher, but is it trend that you've noticed with others?

 

[briztoon]

One thing I've noticed over recent draft years is that, a couple months out from the draft the various top 10 or top 15 phantom rankings (not necessarily yours) feature a mix of KPPs, mids, and mediums/smalls who play forward or back in a ratio that might look something like this (as an example only):
- 7 or 8 mids
- 5 or 6 talls
- 2 or 3 medium/smalls whose best position is forward or back (not great midfield scope)

But by draft time the genuine mids seem to have become the hottest property, and end up dominating the top 10 picks especially on draft night, and the talls and mediums/smalls who don't play mid get shunted down the order quite a lot. Do you foresee something similar happening again this year?

I guess I am thinking guys like Valente, Stocker, Duursma (and to a lesser extent a Chayce Jones or Butters) may rise at the expense of guys who are HB/HF with midfield scope, or who as mids don't find as much of the footy as the aforementioned (referring to Quaynor, Collier-Dawkins, Hill, C Taylor, Thomas, even Clark).

I notice that your top 15 power rankings features 10 mids, so I suspect that you already value those genuine ball winners higher, but is it trend that you've noticed with others?

Duursma has been a top 15 talent all year afaic. If looking at early season top 10's, Ian Hill and Tarryn Thomas are probably the two to slide down somewhat, with Connor Rozee and Jackson Hately moving firmly in to top 10 discussions. Would be easy to see one of Duursma, Stocker or Collier-Dawkins rounding out the top 10.

Just looking at another phantom drafter's top 25, and it's basically mids, mids, mids outside of the top end talent. Everyone has 4 elite talls in the top 10, Jack Lukosius, Ben & Max King and Sydney's Nick Blakey. Plus 2 small forwards/mids in Izak Rankine and Ian Hill (who appears to sliding down a lot of draft boards).

Bailey Williams is the only other tall to appear in a few phantom drafters top 25, and I would expect him to slide on draft night.

I can see West Australian general defender Jordan Clark rising in to top 15 to 20 calculations. Run and elite kicking off HB is almost right up there with quality mids in to terms of players who influence the game.

 

[Knightmare]

Hi KM,
Wondering your thoughts on Watts and Byrnes not being picked in the Futures game on grand final day? Were they stiff or do they not compare to the talent picked. Roughly where are they sitting for 2019 after impressive years.
Cheers

Do you have a link to the lists? I haven't come across them yet.

Watts I consider unbelievably stiff if not in. He's my top key defender for next year, even slightly above Gould. He isn't as physically developed and his game isn't as advanced, but he is one I can see passing Gould by with some years if he continues his improvement with his intercept marking and skills particularly impressive.

Byrnes as a smaller mid is one who could have been selected but wouldn't have surprised me either way.

KM, I'm very interested in Liam Stocker. Sounds like he's come home with a bit of a bang, and is rising up draft boards late (much like Tarantos and Andrew Brayshaws of years gone), just wondering though what you think the chances are of him still being around at the end of the first round (if Eagles receive an end of first round compo pick for a Gaff or Lycett for example), or early in the second round (Eagles using Gold Coast's second round pick that was traded for last year). Obviously that second round pick gets shunted back about 3-5 spots with compo picks coming in first round so might be a bit ambitious?

And if not, the likelihood of one of Caldwell or Duursma lasting until then? Sounds also like Valente would also be a decent option, despite being a bit slow. With decent size, good production and contested ball winning and acceptable skills/decision making, as an inside mid this would sound like a good package?

Stocker is one most will like. Contested ball winning bull. Tackles hard. Hard to bring to ground. Also has really nice skills for an inside type by hand and foot. He won't hit the scoreboard like a Taranto who could kill sides not just through the mids but also forward of centre, but he has a lot of what Brayshaw had last year. Stocker could still be there late first round. I see him around pick 10 entering the draft mix, though I see him going more mid first round than late at this stage.

One thing I've noticed over recent draft years is that, a couple months out from the draft the various top 10 or top 15 phantom rankings (not necessarily yours) feature a mix of KPPs, mids, and mediums/smalls who play forward or back in a ratio that might look something like this (as an example only):
- 7 or 8 mids
- 5 or 6 talls
- 2 or 3 medium/smalls whose best position is forward or back (not great midfield scope)

But by draft time the genuine mids seem to have become the hottest property, and end up dominating the top 10 picks especially on draft night, and the talls and mediums/smalls who don't play mid get shunted down the order quite a lot. Do you foresee something similar happening again this year?

I guess I am thinking guys like Valente, Stocker, Duursma (and to a lesser extent a Chayce Jones or Butters) may rise at the expense of guys who are HB/HF with midfield scope, or who as mids don't find as much of the footy as the aforementioned (referring to Quaynor, Collier-Dawkins, Hill, C Taylor, Thomas, even Clark).

I notice that your top 15 power rankings features 10 mids, so I suspect that you already value those genuine ball winners higher, but is it trend that you've noticed with others?

It's hard to comment what other phantom drafts may be looking like around this time as I haven't taken the time to look through what others are predicting. In tend to focus my own draft orders against more what I believe will happen on draft day rather than who other people prefer as spending too much time looking at other peoples draft orders is fraught with danger, as it can warp your perception of certain players one way or the other, and from my experience not for the better.

I find to generalise at least based on last years draft, and I think a similar trend may happen again this year, compared to my own rankings that clubs tend to undervalue ball winning mids and overpay for speed. I also find again to generalise that clubs take KPPs from the TAC Cup a lot higher than I would.

I find it hard generally to include general defenders and general forwards early, as they don't normally end up being the best players in the draft, and unless you tick my three boxes of improvement/points of difference/production fairly emphatically I'm probably not going to rate the KPP all that highly either, being all about drafting only quality talls.

A lot of the best mids if they have a few points of difference often can develop in other positions in addition to midfield which makes such a high weighting on mids somewhat viable.

One interesting name in there you mention is Collier-Dawkins. His play on the weekend as an inside mid is as dominant as I've seen this year. He'd win first possession and just burst out of there. He took Gippsland's hearts away. It makes me wonder why he hasn't just played there all year. It's the one position he has impacted games, feeling quiet elsewhere.

I'm mostly myself into those high volume contested ball winners, having long noted that they're the ones who typically translate best to AFL play. Particularly if they have added points of difference, with the modern game more of a stoppage fest than ever and a lot less open than any of the junior competitions.

 

[Bicks]

Do you have a link to the lists? I haven't come across them yet.

Watts I consider unbelievably stiff if not in. He's my top key defender for next year, even slightly above Gould. He isn't as physically developed and his game isn't as advanced, but he is one I can see passing Gould by with some years if he continues his improvement with his intercept marking and skills particularly impressive.

Byrnes as a smaller mid is one who could have been selected but wouldn't have surprised me either way.



Stocker is one most will like. Contested ball winning bull. Tackles hard. Hard to bring to ground. Also has really nice skills for an inside type by hand and foot. He won't hit the scoreboard like a Taranto who could kill sides not just through the mids but also forward of centre, but he has a lot of what Brayshaw had last year. Stocker could still be there late first round. I see him around pick 10 entering the draft mix, though I see him going more mid first round than late at this stage.



It's hard to comment what other phantom drafts may be looking like around this time as I haven't taken the time to look through what others are predicting. In tend to focus my own draft orders against more what I believe will happen on draft day rather than who other people prefer as spending too much time looking at other peoples draft orders is fraught with danger, as it can warp your perception of certain players one way or the other, and from my experience not for the better.

I find to generalise at least based on last years draft, and I think a similar trend may happen again this year, compared to my own rankings that clubs tend to undervalue ball winning mids and overpay for speed. I also find again to generalise that clubs take KPPs from the TAC Cup a lot higher than I would.

I find it hard generally to include general defenders and general forwards early, as they don't normally end up being the best players in the draft, and unless you tick my three boxes of improvement/points of difference/production fairly emphatically I'm probably not going to rate the KPP all that highly either, being all about drafting only quality talls.

A lot of the best mids if they have a few points of difference often can develop in other positions in addition to midfield which makes such a high weighting on mids somewhat viable.

One interesting name in there you mention is Collier-Dawkins. His play on the weekend as an inside mid is as dominant as I've seen this year. He'd win first possession and just burst out of there. He took Gippsland's hearts away. It makes me wonder why he hasn't just played there all year. It's the one position he has impacted games, feeling quiet elsewhere.

I'm mostly myself into those high volume contested ball winners, having long noted that they're the ones who typically translate best to AFL play. Particularly if they have added points of difference, with the modern game more of a stoppage fest than ever and a lot less open than any of the junior competitions.

Team Riewoldt:
#1 Kysaiah Pickett (Woodville West Torrens)
#2 Rhai Arn Cox (East Perth)
#3 Malcolm Rosas (Darwin)
#4 Connor Budarick (Gold Coast Academy)
#5 Jack Mahony (Sandringham Dragons)
#6 Trent Bianco (Oakleigh Chargers)
#7 Dylan Stephens (Norwood)
#8 Mitch O’Neill (North Hobart)
#16 Jackson Mead (Woodville-West Torrens)
#17 Deven Robertson (Perth)
#18 Sam Flanders (Gippsland Power)
#19 Dylan Williams (Oakleigh Chargers)
#20 Lachlan Ash (Murray Bushrangers)
#21 Brock Smith (Gippsland Power)
#22 Tom Green (Marist)
#24 Noah Anderson (Oakleigh Chargers)
#25 Darcy Chirgwin (Geelong Falcons)
#26 Brodie Kemp (Bendigo Pioneers)
#31 Liam Delahunty (Giants Academy)
#32 Joshua Rayner (Swans Academy)
#33 Joshua Worrell (Sandringham Dragons)
#34 Charlie Dean (Sandringham Dragons)
#35 Luke Jackson (East Fremantle)
#36 Andrew Courtney (Sandringham Dragons)

Team Bartel:
#1 Hewago Paul Oea (Gold Coast Academy)
#2 Caleb Serong (Gippsland Power)
#3 Matt Rowell (Oakleigh Chargers)
#4 Will Chandler (Murray Bushrangers)
#5 Flynn Perez (Bendigo Pioneers)
#6 Will Martyn (Brisbane Academy)
#7 Ryan Gardner (Northern Knights)
#8 Cameron Taheny (Norwood)
#9 Darcy Cassar (Western Jets)
#16 Lachlan Potter (Northern Knights)
#17 Elijah Taylor (Perth)
#18 Jeremy Sharp (East Fremantle)
#19 Hugo Ralphsmith (Sandringham Dragons)
#20 Hayden Young (Dandenong Stingrays)
#21 Trent Rivers (East Fremantle)
#22 Cooper Stephens (Geelong Falcons)
#23 Mitchell Georgiades (Subiaco)
#24 Karl Finlay (North Adelaide)
#31 Will Gould (Glenelg)
#32 Fischer McAsey (Sandringham Dragons)
#33 Bigoa Nyuon (Dandenong Stingrays)
#34 Jack Buller (Claremont)
#35 Emerson Jeka (Western Jets)
#36 Jack Bell (Sandringham Dragons)

 

[foodles05]

Efficiency are the stats available.

If I had access to kick ratings. I'd be quoting those stats.

As a sample of games increases. It definitely gives insight as there are more and more games where those numbers add up. And as with any stats, the key is the insight it offers in the context of their game.

I look at Jones' efficiency as representing his kicking accurately, which is why I quote those numbers.

I rarely make reference to kicking efficiencies in my weekly wraps because I feel they don't tell the complete story. There are times they're relevant and support what you see, which is where referencing kicking efficiency is of value as per the Jones example.

Another player I find the kicking efficiency of to be of interest is Bailey Smith. How high his kicking efficiency is for an inside midfielder really speaks to his incredible consistency by foot at his position.

It's a stat with value (mostly circumstantial and with complete contextual understanding). It just has it's limitations in value.

A perfectly summarised answer as per usual great man. I only meant to highlight how stats can be misleading but you are right that if you have a large enough sample size they can be helpful. I assume that you like I are far more likely to rely on what you have seen though when possible.

Also interested in you take on Luko's reduced performance in the second half of this year. I scout in SA and have followed him a lot particularly last year. I also think he is a generational talent with the only question mark his competitiveness. He looks spent and I give him a pass in that sense but what do you think of his drop off in the last few months and is his lack of competitiveness a concern for you. If you compare him to Riewoldt Nick was renowned for his relentless desire.

 

[Knightmare]

A perfectly summarised answer as per usual great man. I only meant to highlight how stats can be misleading but you are right that if you have a large enough sample size they can be helpful. I assume that you like I are far more likely to rely on what you have seen though when possible.

Also interested in you take on Luko's reduced performance in the second half of this year. I scout in SA and have followed him a lot particularly last year. I also think he is a generational talent with the only question mark his competitiveness. He looks spent and I give him a pass in that sense but what do you think of his drop off in the last few months and is his lack of competitiveness a concern for you. If you compare him to Riewoldt Nick was renowned for his relentless desire.

Did Lukosius look tired/sluggish to you? Maybe just wants the year done with and to get started on next year? Do you have a theory?

My most recent viewings of Lukosius other than following his stats and the school footy final (and he looked good there) was u18 champs. And his stats have still been solid, but not nearly up to the standard he is capable of.

I still feel he will be a generational talent, but I do ever so slightly on second half of season form have to revise my take on Lukosius.

It's interesting you talk competitiveness with Lukosius. It's an intangible I find in those seen as lacking it, often don't get evaluated correctly. Scott Pendlebury is the classic example where he looks exceptionally laconic, but when you understand his tireless work ethic, it's just the way he plays at a different pace/style makes him comes across this way. With Lukosius my read has been classically along these lines where he looks laconic and isn't one of those outwardly emotional guys as Riewoldt was, but I don't have any evidence to feel he won't put in the work on the track or play all out on match day. Though with that said, having never met/spoken to Jack so I don't have the evidence to confirm this suspicion and can only give him the benefit of the doubt as he appears to work hard out on the field and has clearly put time into his game to be as exceptional as he is.

 

[Thunderstruck]

Lukosius definitely looked a bit cooked in the SANFL finals series, more than he did last year in his debut game against Sturt that's for sure. Fumbling, overrunning the footy, double grabbing, handballs missing mark etc and generally out of position all the time. He was tired, and although I do mark him harshly due to his ability, 30 odd games of footy this year has taken its toll on him. He'll be right. I project him more in the Westhoff style than Riewoldt, but at a level about half way between the two, so still elite for a KP.

 

[foodles05]

Did Lukosius look tired/sluggish to you? Maybe just wants the year done with and to get started on next year? Do you have a theory?

My most recent viewings of Lukosius other than following his stats and the school footy final (and he looked good there) was u18 champs. And his stats have still been solid, but not nearly up to the standard he is capable of.

I still feel he will be a generational talent, but I do ever so slightly on second half of season form have to revise my take on Lukosius.

It's interesting you talk competitiveness with Lukosius. It's an intangible I find in those seen as lacking it, often don't get evaluated correctly. Scott Pendlebury is the classic example where he looks exceptionally laconic, but when you understand his tireless work ethic, it's just the way he plays at a different pace/style makes him comes across this way. With Lukosius my read has been classically along these lines where he looks laconic and isn't one of those outwardly emotional guys as Riewoldt was, but I don't have any evidence to feel he won't put in the work on the track or play all out on match day. Though with that said, having never met/spoken to Jack so I don't have the evidence to confirm this suspicion and can only give him the benefit of the doubt as he appears to work hard out on the field and has clearly put time into his game to be as exceptional as he is.

Yeah I think he is tired from a long year having to play a very demanding position and also looks like the confidence is lacking a little. It was hard to work out whether he was running to the wrong spots or had been asked to play a specific role. Maybe it was a little bit of both. He often seemed in between positions standing about 15 metres off the contest. I was saying to a mate that after watching him earlier this year when he was running up and down the oval at against Norwood that he just wasn't covering the ground anywhere near as well as earlier in the year.

In the end my take is you can get too caught up in over analyzing someone. Whilst I agree he needs to be marked down a tiny bit for the second half of the year I am happy to take the other 18 months as a better indication of what he can do. That being the case I still believe he could be absolutely anything. There is every chance he goes into the league next year and once he starts playing is immediately the best kick in the AFL.

So after all that I'm staying with him. Kid is an absolute freak and sometimes we just search for flaws.

 

[GUMBLETRON]

A lot of the best mids if they have a few points of difference often can develop in other positions in addition to midfield which makes such a high weighting on mids somewhat viable.

One interesting name in there you mention is Collier-Dawkins. His play on the weekend as an inside mid is as dominant as I've seen this year. He'd win first possession and just burst out of there. He took Gippsland's hearts away. It makes me wonder why he hasn't just played there all year. It's the one position he has impacted games, feeling quiet elsewhere.

Perhaps they're trying to develop him in other positions in addition to midfield.

 

[HedgeFund]

Team Riewoldt:
#1 Kysaiah Pickett (Woodville West Torrens)
#2 Rhai Arn Cox (East Perth)
#3 Malcolm Rosas (Darwin)
#4 Connor Budarick (Gold Coast Academy)
#5 Jack Mahony (Sandringham Dragons)
#6 Trent Bianco (Oakleigh Chargers)
#7 Dylan Stephens (Norwood)
#8 Mitch O’Neill (North Hobart)
#16 Jackson Mead (Woodville-West Torrens)
#17 Deven Robertson (Perth)
#18 Sam Flanders (Gippsland Power)
#19 Dylan Williams (Oakleigh Chargers)
#20 Lachlan Ash (Murray Bushrangers)
#21 Brock Smith (Gippsland Power)
#22 Tom Green (Marist)
#24 Noah Anderson (Oakleigh Chargers)
#25 Darcy Chirgwin (Geelong Falcons)
#26 Brodie Kemp (Bendigo Pioneers)
#31 Liam Delahunty (Giants Academy)
#32 Joshua Rayner (Swans Academy)
#33 Joshua Worrell (Sandringham Dragons)
#34 Charlie Dean (Sandringham Dragons)
#35 Luke Jackson (East Fremantle)
#36 Andrew Courtney (Sandringham Dragons)

Team Bartel:
#1 Hewago Paul Oea (Gold Coast Academy)
#2 Caleb Serong (Gippsland Power)
#3 Matt Rowell (Oakleigh Chargers)
#4 Will Chandler (Murray Bushrangers)
#5 Flynn Perez (Bendigo Pioneers)
#6 Will Martyn (Brisbane Academy)
#7 Ryan Gardner (Northern Knights)
#8 Cameron Taheny (Norwood)
#9 Darcy Cassar (Western Jets)
#16 Lachlan Potter (Northern Knights)
#17 Elijah Taylor (Perth)
#18 Jeremy Sharp (East Fremantle)
#19 Hugo Ralphsmith (Sandringham Dragons)
#20 Hayden Young (Dandenong Stingrays)
#21 Trent Rivers (East Fremantle)
#22 Cooper Stephens (Geelong Falcons)
#23 Mitchell Georgiades (Subiaco)
#24 Karl Finlay (North Adelaide)
#31 Will Gould (Glenelg)
#32 Fischer McAsey (Sandringham Dragons)
#33 Bigoa Nyuon (Dandenong Stingrays)
#34 Jack Buller (Claremont)
#35 Emerson Jeka (Western Jets)
#36 Jack Bell (Sandringham Dragons)

Amusing that they list Darcy Chirgwin as being from Geelong Falcons.

 

[eDPS]

Perhaps they're trying to develop him in other positions in addition to midfield.

RCD has played mostly midfield still but he spends more time on the bench and up forward more than the other Oakleigh midfielders. Oakleigh unlike most TAC clubs have the luxury of rotating all their mids to the bench with RCD actually starting the game on the bench on multiple occasions.

 

[Eastcoasteagle]

Hi KM, what's your thoughts on Mitch Maguire? He really does look and play like Zorko. I understand the neafl standard is lower but looks a player.

 

[Knightmare]

Hi KM, what's your thoughts on Mitch Maguire? He really does look and play like Zorko. I understand the neafl standard is lower but looks a player.

I made the same comparison a couple of weeks back in my weekly wrap where I featured Connor Thar. Similar size and similar tricks and mix of attributes.

NEAFL isn't a bad competition. I consider it a viable recruiting ground with Zorko the most successful coming from there.

On Maguire. I really liked him as a junior and felt he had the game, but just due to height was overlooked. He's good forward or mid and has the skills, agility and power. Good ball winner. So there is something familiar to him.

 

[dockersfever]

Team Riewoldt:
#1 Kysaiah Pickett (Woodville West Torrens)
#2 Rhai Arn Cox (East Perth)
#3 Malcolm Rosas (Darwin)
#4 Connor Budarick (Gold Coast Academy)
#5 Jack Mahony (Sandringham Dragons)
#6 Trent Bianco (Oakleigh Chargers)
#7 Dylan Stephens (Norwood)
#8 Mitch O’Neill (North Hobart)
#16 Jackson Mead (Woodville-West Torrens)
#17 Deven Robertson (Perth)
#18 Sam Flanders (Gippsland Power)
#19 Dylan Williams (Oakleigh Chargers)
#20 Lachlan Ash (Murray Bushrangers)
#21 Brock Smith (Gippsland Power)
#22 Tom Green (Marist)
#24 Noah Anderson (Oakleigh Chargers)
#25 Darcy Chirgwin (Geelong Falcons)
#26 Brodie Kemp (Bendigo Pioneers)
#31 Liam Delahunty (Giants Academy)
#32 Joshua Rayner (Swans Academy)
#33 Joshua Worrell (Sandringham Dragons)
#34 Charlie Dean (Sandringham Dragons)
#35 Luke Jackson (East Fremantle)
#36 Andrew Courtney (Sandringham Dragons)

Team Bartel:
#1 Hewago Paul Oea (Gold Coast Academy)
#2 Caleb Serong (Gippsland Power)
#3 Matt Rowell (Oakleigh Chargers)
#4 Will Chandler (Murray Bushrangers)
#5 Flynn Perez (Bendigo Pioneers)
#6 Will Martyn (Brisbane Academy)
#7 Ryan Gardner (Northern Knights)
#8 Cameron Taheny (Norwood)
#9 Darcy Cassar (Western Jets)
#16 Lachlan Potter (Northern Knights)
#17 Elijah Taylor (Perth)
#18 Jeremy Sharp (East Fremantle)
#19 Hugo Ralphsmith (Sandringham Dragons)
#20 Hayden Young (Dandenong Stingrays)
#21 Trent Rivers (East Fremantle)
#22 Cooper Stephens (Geelong Falcons)
#23 Mitchell Georgiades (Subiaco)
#24 Karl Finlay (North Adelaide)
#31 Will Gould (Glenelg)
#32 Fischer McAsey (Sandringham Dragons)
#33 Bigoa Nyuon (Dandenong Stingrays)
#34 Jack Buller (Claremont)
#35 Emerson Jeka (Western Jets)
#36 Jack Bell (Sandringham Dragons)

Players to watch from the two teams KM?

 

[maverick001]

Do you have a link to the lists? I haven't come across them yet.

Watts I consider unbelievably stiff if not in. He's my top key defender for next year, even slightly above Gould. He isn't as physically developed and his game isn't as advanced, but he is one I can see passing Gould by with some years if he continues his improvement with his intercept marking and skills particularly impressive.

Byrnes as a smaller mid is one who could have been selected but wouldn't have surprised me either way.



Stocker is one most will like. Contested ball winning bull. Tackles hard. Hard to bring to ground. Also has really nice skills for an inside type by hand and foot. He won't hit the scoreboard like a Taranto who could kill sides not just through the mids but also forward of centre, but he has a lot of what Brayshaw had last year. Stocker could still be there late first round. I see him around pick 10 entering the draft mix, though I see him going more mid first round than late at this stage.



It's hard to comment what other phantom drafts may be looking like around this time as I haven't taken the time to look through what others are predicting. In tend to focus my own draft orders against more what I believe will happen on draft day rather than who other people prefer as spending too much time looking at other peoples draft orders is fraught with danger, as it can warp your perception of certain players one way or the other, and from my experience not for the better.

I find to generalise at least based on last years draft, and I think a similar trend may happen again this year, compared to my own rankings that clubs tend to undervalue ball winning mids and overpay for speed. I also find again to generalise that clubs take KPPs from the TAC Cup a lot higher than I would.

I find it hard generally to include general defenders and general forwards early, as they don't normally end up being the best players in the draft, and unless you tick my three boxes of improvement/points of difference/production fairly emphatically I'm probably not going to rate the KPP all that highly either, being all about drafting only quality talls.

A lot of the best mids if they have a few points of difference often can develop in other positions in addition to midfield which makes such a high weighting on mids somewhat viable.

One interesting name in there you mention is Collier-Dawkins. His play on the weekend as an inside mid is as dominant as I've seen this year. He'd win first possession and just burst out of there. He took Gippsland's hearts away. It makes me wonder why he hasn't just played there all year. It's the one position he has impacted games, feeling quiet elsewhere.

I'm mostly myself into those high volume contested ball winners, having long noted that they're the ones who typically translate best to AFL play. Particularly if they have added points of difference, with the modern game more of a stoppage fest than ever and a lot less open than any of the junior competitions.

Thanks for the reply.

I concur totally, that if they're not finding the footy regularly at junior level or can't consistently hold down a place in the guts, they're likely going to struggle to up the ante at AFL level. Generally you'd expect all the dominant juniors to be playing midfield as that's where they can yield the most influencs, except obviously the talls and those with special skills sets suited to a rebounding half back role or a small forward role.

I guess with Stocker it's only natural he'll rise on the draft boards given he missed the Champs with injury, but has come back later in the year to produce very good footy.

 

[Knightmare]

Players to watch from the two teams KM?

Team Riewoldt:
#1 Kysaiah Pickett (Woodville West Torrens)
#2 Rhai Arn Cox (East Perth)
#3 Malcolm Rosas (Darwin)
#4 Connor Budarick (Gold Coast Academy)
#5 Jack Mahony (Sandringham Dragons)
#6 Trent Bianco (Oakleigh Chargers)
#7 Dylan Stephens (Norwood)
#8 Mitch O’Neill (North Hobart)
#16 Jackson Mead (Woodville-West Torrens)
#17 Deven Robertson (Perth)
#18 Sam Flanders (Gippsland Power)
#19 Dylan Williams (Oakleigh Chargers)
#20 Lachlan Ash (Murray Bushrangers)
#21 Brock Smith (Gippsland Power)
#22 Tom Green (Marist)
#24 Noah Anderson (Oakleigh Chargers)
#25 Darcy Chirgwin (Geelong Falcons)
#26 Brodie Kemp (Bendigo Pioneers)
#31 Liam Delahunty (Giants Academy)
#32 Joshua Rayner (Swans Academy)
#33 Joshua Worrell (Sandringham Dragons)
#34 Charlie Dean (Sandringham Dragons)
#35 Luke Jackson (East Fremantle)
#36 Andrew Courtney (Sandringham Dragons)

Team Bartel:
#1 Hewago Paul Oea (Gold Coast Academy)
#2 Caleb Serong (Gippsland Power)
#3 Matt Rowell (Oakleigh Chargers)
#4 Will Chandler (Murray Bushrangers)
#5 Flynn Perez (Bendigo Pioneers)
#6 Will Martyn (Brisbane Academy)
#7 Ryan Gardner (Northern Knights)
#8 Cameron Taheny (Norwood)
#9 Darcy Cassar (Western Jets)
#16 Lachlan Potter (Northern Knights)
#17 Elijah Taylor (Perth)
#18 Jeremy Sharp (East Fremantle)
#19 Hugo Ralphsmith (Sandringham Dragons)
#20 Hayden Young (Dandenong Stingrays)
#21 Trent Rivers (East Fremantle)
#22 Cooper Stephens (Geelong Falcons)
#23 Mitchell Georgiades (Subiaco)
#24 Karl Finlay (North Adelaide)
#31 Will Gould (Glenelg)
#32 Fischer McAsey (Sandringham Dragons)
#33 Bigoa Nyuon (Dandenong Stingrays)
#34 Jack Buller (Claremont)
#35 Emerson Jeka (Western Jets)
#36 Jack Bell (Sandringham Dragons)

Thanks for the reply.

I concur totally, that if they're not finding the footy regularly at junior level or can't consistently hold down a place in the guts, they're likely going to struggle to up the ante at AFL level. Generally you'd expect all the dominant juniors to be playing midfield as that's where they can yield the most influencs, except obviously the talls and those with special skills sets suited to a rebounding half back role or a small forward role.

I guess with Stocker it's only natural he'll rise on the draft boards given he missed the Champs with injury, but has come back later in the year to produce very good footy.

You've nailed it.

On Stocker, he has definitely looked better certainly through the second half of the year. He's not just that contested bull, but by hand and foot is a really nice user of the footy. Has the composure. Hard to bring to ground. He has those extra dimensions which makes him appealing.

 

[Knightmare]

AFL Draft wrap with a focus on Melbourne NGA prospect Toby Bedford: http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/24719704/afl-draft-wrap-toby-bedford-stands-sandringham

 

[ModernArtillery]

Hey Knightmare,

I'm interested in your thoughts on Jack Bytel and where you see him being drafted this year?