Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2018 AFL Draft Almanac

[Knightmare]

Hey Knightmare,

I'm interested in your thoughts on Jack Bytel and where you see him being drafted this year?

Going into the year Bytel was thought of as perhaps the most prolific stoppage player in the draft or if not, then certainly in that conversation.

If I understand correctly, Bytel has struggled with back issues this year, so we haven't seen his best this year or that expected improvement.

He lacks the tricks/weapons to go early, with his kicking iffy, but I'd like to see him feature somewhere in the second half of the draft as he can be one of those better inside distributors this year.

 

[ModernArtillery]

Going into the year Bytel was thought of as perhaps the most prolific stoppage player in the draft or if not, then certainly in that conversation.

If I understand correctly, Bytel has struggled with back issues this year, so we haven't seen his best this year or that expected improvement.

He lacks the tricks/weapons to go early, with his kicking iffy, but I'd like to see him feature somewhere in the second half of the draft as he can be one of those better inside distributors this year.

Back injuries can be concerning but he might end up being pretty good value in the second half of the draft! Always appreciate your insight!

 

[foodles05]

Team Riewoldt:
#1 Kysaiah Pickett (Woodville West Torrens)
#2 Rhai Arn Cox (East Perth)
#3 Malcolm Rosas (Darwin)
#4 Connor Budarick (Gold Coast Academy)
#5 Jack Mahony (Sandringham Dragons)
#6 Trent Bianco (Oakleigh Chargers)
#7 Dylan Stephens (Norwood)
#8 Mitch O’Neill (North Hobart)
#16 Jackson Mead (Woodville-West Torrens)
#17 Deven Robertson (Perth)
#18 Sam Flanders (Gippsland Power)
#19 Dylan Williams (Oakleigh Chargers)
#20 Lachlan Ash (Murray Bushrangers)
#21 Brock Smith (Gippsland Power)
#22 Tom Green (Marist)
#24 Noah Anderson (Oakleigh Chargers)
#25 Darcy Chirgwin (Geelong Falcons)
#26 Brodie Kemp (Bendigo Pioneers)
#31 Liam Delahunty (Giants Academy)
#32 Joshua Rayner (Swans Academy)
#33 Joshua Worrell (Sandringham Dragons)
#34 Charlie Dean (Sandringham Dragons)
#35 Luke Jackson (East Fremantle)
#36 Andrew Courtney (Sandringham Dragons)

Team Bartel:
#1 Hewago Paul Oea (Gold Coast Academy)
#2 Caleb Serong (Gippsland Power)
#3 Matt Rowell (Oakleigh Chargers)
#4 Will Chandler (Murray Bushrangers)
#5 Flynn Perez (Bendigo Pioneers)
#6 Will Martyn (Brisbane Academy)
#7 Ryan Gardner (Northern Knights)
#8 Cameron Taheny (Norwood)
#9 Darcy Cassar (Western Jets)
#16 Lachlan Potter (Northern Knights)
#17 Elijah Taylor (Perth)
#18 Jeremy Sharp (East Fremantle)
#19 Hugo Ralphsmith (Sandringham Dragons)
#20 Hayden Young (Dandenong Stingrays)
#21 Trent Rivers (East Fremantle)
#22 Cooper Stephens (Geelong Falcons)
#23 Mitchell Georgiades (Subiaco)
#24 Karl Finlay (North Adelaide)
#31 Will Gould (Glenelg)
#32 Fischer McAsey (Sandringham Dragons)
#33 Bigoa Nyuon (Dandenong Stingrays)
#34 Jack Buller (Claremont)
#35 Emerson Jeka (Western Jets)
#36 Jack Bell (Sandringham Dragons)



You've nailed it.

On Stocker, he has definitely looked better certainly through the second half of the year. He's not just that contested bull, but by hand and foot is a really nice user of the footy. Has the composure. Hard to bring to ground. He has those extra dimensions which makes him appealing.

I've spent the whole year watching the SA boys and can't work out how Finlay even got picked so if he is one to watch I would be surprised. Had great hands in the air but nothing else. D Stephens might be the best of all of them! Was sick for the middle part of the year but absolutely slayed the two finals he played in at the end of year. Had 32 and 4 goals in the first and 37 and 1.3 in the second. Gun!

 

[foodles05]

Team Riewoldt:
#1 Kysaiah Pickett (Woodville West Torrens)
#2 Rhai Arn Cox (East Perth)
#3 Malcolm Rosas (Darwin)
#4 Connor Budarick (Gold Coast Academy)
#5 Jack Mahony (Sandringham Dragons)
#6 Trent Bianco (Oakleigh Chargers)
#7 Dylan Stephens (Norwood)
#8 Mitch O’Neill (North Hobart)
#16 Jackson Mead (Woodville-West Torrens)
#17 Deven Robertson (Perth)
#18 Sam Flanders (Gippsland Power)
#19 Dylan Williams (Oakleigh Chargers)
#20 Lachlan Ash (Murray Bushrangers)
#21 Brock Smith (Gippsland Power)
#22 Tom Green (Marist)
#24 Noah Anderson (Oakleigh Chargers)
#25 Darcy Chirgwin (Geelong Falcons)
#26 Brodie Kemp (Bendigo Pioneers)
#31 Liam Delahunty (Giants Academy)
#32 Joshua Rayner (Swans Academy)
#33 Joshua Worrell (Sandringham Dragons)
#34 Charlie Dean (Sandringham Dragons)
#35 Luke Jackson (East Fremantle)
#36 Andrew Courtney (Sandringham Dragons)

Team Bartel:
#1 Hewago Paul Oea (Gold Coast Academy)
#2 Caleb Serong (Gippsland Power)
#3 Matt Rowell (Oakleigh Chargers)
#4 Will Chandler (Murray Bushrangers)
#5 Flynn Perez (Bendigo Pioneers)
#6 Will Martyn (Brisbane Academy)
#7 Ryan Gardner (Northern Knights)
#8 Cameron Taheny (Norwood)
#9 Darcy Cassar (Western Jets)
#16 Lachlan Potter (Northern Knights)
#17 Elijah Taylor (Perth)
#18 Jeremy Sharp (East Fremantle)
#19 Hugo Ralphsmith (Sandringham Dragons)
#20 Hayden Young (Dandenong Stingrays)
#21 Trent Rivers (East Fremantle)
#22 Cooper Stephens (Geelong Falcons)
#23 Mitchell Georgiades (Subiaco)
#24 Karl Finlay (North Adelaide)
#31 Will Gould (Glenelg)
#32 Fischer McAsey (Sandringham Dragons)
#33 Bigoa Nyuon (Dandenong Stingrays)
#34 Jack Buller (Claremont)
#35 Emerson Jeka (Western Jets)
#36 Jack Bell (Sandringham Dragons)



You've nailed it.

On Stocker, he has definitely looked better certainly through the second half of the year. He's not just that contested bull, but by hand and foot is a really nice user of the footy. Has the composure. Hard to bring to ground. He has those extra dimensions which makes him appealing.

Also I am a big wrap for Mead and have been for a while. Silky on both sides and got go forward and dominant 1 on 1. Something good always happens when he has the ball in his hands and is in the Sam Mitchell mould (not saying he will be that good but just plays like him). However, has more power in the air and can really elevate for aerial contests.

 

[Bicks]

Team Riewoldt:
#1 Kysaiah Pickett (Woodville West Torrens)
#2 Rhai Arn Cox (East Perth)
#3 Malcolm Rosas (Darwin)
#4 Connor Budarick (Gold Coast Academy)
#5 Jack Mahony (Sandringham Dragons)
#6 Trent Bianco (Oakleigh Chargers)
#7 Dylan Stephens (Norwood)
#8 Mitch O’Neill (North Hobart)
#16 Jackson Mead (Woodville-West Torrens)
#17 Deven Robertson (Perth)
#18 Sam Flanders (Gippsland Power)
#19 Dylan Williams (Oakleigh Chargers)
#20 Lachlan Ash (Murray Bushrangers)
#21 Brock Smith (Gippsland Power)
#22 Tom Green (Marist)
#24 Noah Anderson (Oakleigh Chargers)
#25 Darcy Chirgwin (Geelong Falcons)
#26 Brodie Kemp (Bendigo Pioneers)
#31 Liam Delahunty (Giants Academy)
#32 Joshua Rayner (Swans Academy)
#33 Joshua Worrell (Sandringham Dragons)
#34 Charlie Dean (Sandringham Dragons)
#35 Luke Jackson (East Fremantle)
#36 Andrew Courtney (Sandringham Dragons)

Team Bartel:
#1 Hewago Paul Oea (Gold Coast Academy)
#2 Caleb Serong (Gippsland Power)
#3 Matt Rowell (Oakleigh Chargers)
#4 Will Chandler (Murray Bushrangers)
#5 Flynn Perez (Bendigo Pioneers)
#6 Will Martyn (Brisbane Academy)
#7 Ryan Gardner (Northern Knights)
#8 Cameron Taheny (Norwood)
#9 Darcy Cassar (Western Jets)
#16 Lachlan Potter (Northern Knights)
#17 Elijah Taylor (Perth)
#18 Jeremy Sharp (East Fremantle)
#19 Hugo Ralphsmith (Sandringham Dragons)
#20 Hayden Young (Dandenong Stingrays)
#21 Trent Rivers (East Fremantle)
#22 Cooper Stephens (Geelong Falcons)
#23 Mitchell Georgiades (Subiaco)
#24 Karl Finlay (North Adelaide)
#31 Will Gould (Glenelg)
#32 Fischer McAsey (Sandringham Dragons)
#33 Bigoa Nyuon (Dandenong Stingrays)
#34 Jack Buller (Claremont)
#35 Emerson Jeka (Western Jets)
#36 Jack Bell (Sandringham Dragons)



You've nailed it.

On Stocker, he has definitely looked better certainly through the second half of the year. He's not just that contested bull, but by hand and foot is a really nice user of the footy. Has the composure. Hard to bring to ground. He has those extra dimensions which makes him appealing.

No love for Cooper Stephens? I've seen him live 4 times this year and he just gets better and better, reckon he'll be a gun midfielder.

 

[Knightmare]

I've spent the whole year watching the SA boys and can't work out how Finlay even got picked so if he is one to watch I would be surprised. Had great hands in the air but nothing else. D Stephens might be the best of all of them! Was sick for the middle part of the year but absolutely slayed the two finals he played in at the end of year. Had 32 and 4 goals in the first and 37 and 1.3 in the second. Gun!

I can't speak for the rest of his year, but the only game I've seen of Finlay top of mind was the school football final and was one of the standouts. He was marking everything and showed he can read the flight to a high level, leaping and attacking everything aerially like a forward.

He looked better than Gould that game, though Gould was really off that day.

Finlay is one given that performance I'll be watching.

Will watch for D.Stephens.

No love for Cooper Stephens? I've seen him live 4 times this year and he just gets better and better, reckon he'll be a gun midfielder.

Stephens can be added to that list. As could a few others.

One of the few really consistent ball winners for Geelong this year and has some pace to burn.

He'll no doubt rack it up in this game also.

 

[peninsulawatch]

Hi KM,

Where do you think these Stingrays are likely to go in the draft? And who is your pick for the Grand Final

S Fletcher
C Hustwaite
T Bedford
R Bowman
J Taylor
B Williams
S Sturt
Z Foot
W Hamill

 

[Harlequin Dream]

Is there room for scepticism with Stocker?

He has had a very good year but that is just about what you expect when he is close to the most physically developed mid in the competition. He is just about at his AFL playing weight in a competition filled with sub 80kg midfielders.

His disposal efficiency doesn’t fill me with confidence either. I understand from watching him that he does find most of his ball in the contest and then kicks a significant amount into the forward half so I can take the numbers with a grain of salt. However, 56% disposal efficiency over the TAC cup season is well below the threshold I would expect from a 1st round prospect.

 

[Peel67skin]

Is there room for scepticism with Stocker?

He has had a very good year but that is just about what you expect when he is close to the most physically developed mid in the competition. He is just about at his AFL playing weight in a competition filled with sub 80kg midfielders.

His disposal efficiency doesn’t fill me with confidence either. I understand from watching him that he does find most of his ball in the contest and then kicks a significant amount into the forward half so I can take the numbers with a grain of salt. However, 56% disposal efficiency over the TAC cup season is well below the threshold I would expect from a 1st round prospect.

Your description of Stocker a bit similar to Jack Higgins .

 

[Knightmare]

Hi KM,

Where do you think these Stingrays are likely to go in the draft? And who is your pick for the Grand Final

S Fletcher
C Hustwaite
T Bedford
R Bowman
J Taylor
B Williams
S Sturt
Z Foot
W Hamill

Despite how good Oakleigh looked, I have Dandenong winning the TAC Cup Grand Final. They've been the best all year.

Sturt I have 15-30.

B.Williams 20-40.

Fletcher 25-50.

Bedford is one who should go second half of draft, though it's not out of the question a team bids earlier if clubs go speed happy again this year. J.Taylor could be in a similar boat, I have him going late but he could well push up the order if clubs overvalue speed again.

The others I wouldn't have inside my phantom draft if I was to produce one today.

Ellison, Cottrell, Gahan, Bayne, Nanskawen, Riordan, Schmidt and the Cumming boys are others where if not drafted you'd hope they at least play on at the highest possible level. It's a deep Dandenong group and one of these 'others' could well get picked.

Is there room for scepticism with Stocker?

He has had a very good year but that is just about what you expect when he is close to the most physically developed mid in the competition. He is just about at his AFL playing weight in a competition filled with sub 80kg midfielders.

His disposal efficiency doesn’t fill me with confidence either. I understand from watching him that he does find most of his ball in the contest and then kicks a significant amount into the forward half so I can take the numbers with a grain of salt. However, 56% disposal efficiency over the TAC cup season is well below the threshold I would expect from a 1st round prospect.

In terms of ball use. I'm actually a fan of what Stocker does by foot. He's a more reliable (much lower efficiency but under the same conditions feels like he more consistently hits his targets) and more damaging kick than the much more highly touted Walsh to name just one. Stocker lowers his eyes, displays composure and hits his targets. Leagues better kick than Chayce Jones who is considered a first round mid. Stocker's efficiency by foot would be around 50%, and that's due in combination to where he wins the ball (with a lot of it coming from stoppages/heavy congestion) and Stocker also is one who will go for his kicks and look to hit more meaningful targets rather than the simple super-short target each time which also contributes.

As for his size. Again I'm not too worried. You can be a powerful unit as long as you can also do other things. And he has the endurance/work rate to cover more than enough ground, has the skills and has the contested side of his game and tackling to a high level. There aren't a whole lot of premier contested ballers at AFL level who come out of the junior system without size. So I wouldn't be looking at it as a disqualifier unless there was some way it negatively impacts on his game at AFL level.

If he could push forward and hit the scoreboard more, he'd be a top 10 pick. But 11-20 I feel is probably appropriate for Stocker.

 

[foodles05]

I can't speak for the rest of his year, but the only game I've seen of Finlay top of mind was the school football final and was one of the standouts. He was marking everything and showed he can read the flight to a high level, leaping and attacking everything aerially like a forward.

He looked better than Gould that game, though Gould was really off that day.

Finlay is one given that performance I'll be watching.

Will watch for D.Stephens.



Stephens can be added to that list. As could a few others.

One of the few really consistent ball winners for Geelong this year and has some pace to burn.

He'll no doubt rack it up in this game also.

Yeah it's the best game I have ever seen Karl play and I have never seen him get close to that in any other game. Definitely watch for D Stephens. He played against PAC as an u/16 last year in the big game of the year and looked more talented than any of their players including Zac Bailey even at 16. He has broken the Academy record for 2ks running sub 6 minutes. Last week he played on the wing for Norwood in the first half when they got smashed out of the middle by South (Sparrow, Sampson and Bogle ect. Norwood has some talented players in the middle including Ben Jarvis, Kade Chandler and Kennerly but they just couldnt compete. The coach pulled Kennerly out at half time and put Stephens in there. Kid had 16 3rd quarter possessions and kicked 1.2 almost single-handedly pulling back a 40 point margin to make it less than a goal at 3 quarter time. He is the prototypical modern day player running a 2.94 for the 20m as well. I put him somewhere between Scully and Kelly from GWS as a comparison. Simply can play!

 

[Sin City]

Your description of Stocker a bit similar to Jack Higgins .

People used to say the same thing about Dustin Martin. It's a short sighted cliché, as if an 18 doesn't have the ability to develop a lot more with 3-4 pre-seasons in an elite program and exposure to senior football.

 

[offshore]

At 22 Tom Atkins would be a better option than many of these 18 year old kids listed in these phantom drafts. How he didnt get drafted last year beggars belief. Won't be the case this year! Good fit for Dogs,Freo,Saints or Suns

 

[Knightmare]

At 22 Tom Atkins would be a better option than many of these 18 year old kids listed in these phantom drafts. How he didnt get drafted last year beggars belief. Won't be the case this year! Good fit for Dogs,Freo,Saints or Suns

He'd be the best tackler outside the AFL. Has been for a few years now. 188 tackles from 20 games is pretty incredible and had that 23 tackle game in 2017. My view in 2016 was he should have been picked with that his breakout year.

At AFL level the question is who he plays in front of. At that age/stage you're looking for best 22 players. I'm not sure Atkins has enough tricks to play ahead of other good mids. Maybe he just plays as a defensive/negating mid, in which case maybe the Suns who under Dew values that defensive side of the game above all else may think of him as a fit as a rookie. Ross Lyon is another who likes his role players and may be able to find one for Atkins.

 

[adammania9]

Hi KM, which Western Jets do you see as likely to be drafted come November?

 

[Knightmare]

Hi KM, which Western Jets do you see as likely to be drafted come November?

O'Halloran and Butters are expected to go first half of draft.

Khamis should join Dogs through academy.

Thar, Radovanovic, and Andrews are the other chances.

 

[Tandy]

Hey does anyone remember that SA kid from maybe a couple of years ago. Was touted as a 1st or 2nd rounder I believe until it was discovered he had a heart condition or irregular heartbeat. On doctors advice He took himself out of the draft unless clubs just overlooked him. I can't remember his name but interested if he is still playing sanfl or sanfl reserves somewhere.

 

[Bicks]

Hey does anyone remember that SA kid from maybe a couple of years ago. Was touted as a 1st or 2nd rounder I believe until it was discovered he had a heart condition or irregular heartbeat. On doctors advice He took himself out of the draft unless clubs just overlooked him. I can't remember his name but interested if he is still playing sanfl or sanfl reserves somewhere.

Alex Villis, never played again as far as I know, last I heard he'd headed back to Cleve on SA's Eyre Peninsula.

 

[Skeptic]

Knightmare,

Who do you prefer, Rankine or Smith? Who do you think the Saints take at #4

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare,

Who do you prefer, Rankine or Smith? Who do you think the Saints take at #4

Smith I prefer.

I can see Rankine going to Saints. Just offers that something different that is missing.

Both would represent value at that choice. It's a wonderful dilema for the Saints to have.

They're in a real sweet spot in this draft.

 

[foodles05]

Smith I prefer.

I can see Rankine going to Saints. Just offers that something different that is missing.

Both would represent value at that choice. It's a wonderful dilema for the Saints to have.

They're in a real sweet spot in this draft.

Can I just say that Luko is a generational talent and Walsh is amazing ect ect. No one that anyone has as much talent as Izak. They just don't! I have spent the last two years watching them both and trying to separate them. In the end Izak is just so talented it is ridiculous. Champion data, the national champs ect just continue to highlight how good he is.

My point is he is just simply outrageous! At this age who knows if he fulfills what he can but he is just so special it is laughable!!

 

[neddy36]

Hey does anyone remember that SA kid from maybe a couple of years ago. Was touted as a 1st or 2nd rounder I believe until it was discovered he had a heart condition or irregular heartbeat. On doctors advice He took himself out of the draft unless clubs just overlooked him. I can't remember his name but interested if he is still playing sanfl or sanfl reserves somewhere.

Alex Villis. He's actually doing some part-time recruiting for Richmond based in SA.

 

[Tandy]

Alex Villis. He's actually doing some part-time recruiting for Richmond based in SA.

Really. That's good news. I was searching the Eyre Peninsula league for his name just in case he's pulled the boots on once or twice. Good to see he's not lost to the game.

 

[LemmingMaster]

Is there room for scepticism with Stocker?

He has had a very good year but that is just about what you expect when he is close to the most physically developed mid in the competition. He is just about at his AFL playing weight in a competition filled with sub 80kg midfielders.

His disposal efficiency doesn’t fill me with confidence either. I understand from watching him that he does find most of his ball in the contest and then kicks a significant amount into the forward half so I can take the numbers with a grain of salt. However, 56% disposal efficiency over the TAC cup season is well below the threshold I would expect from a 1st round prospect.

I remember Wines had a few issues with his body shape being "fully developed" and he is going okay. I've heard Stocker is more inside midfielder, so that can explain his disposal efficiency?

 

[HedgeFund]

I remember Wines had a few issues with his body shape being "fully developed" and he is going okay. I've heard Stocker is more inside midfielder, so that can explain his disposal efficiency?

Stocker doesn’t take the conservative options very often I can assure you. His effective disposals tend to put team mates in excellent positions when they “come off”. He certainly isn’t one to dink the footy around the back half getting no value out of them.

He has plenty of room for growth, both physically and output wise. Could put on another 5-7kgs easily and not be too big.