Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2018 AFL Draft Almanac

[LittleG]

They could...but gee they are losing a lot if they trade wingard, polec and pittard out and use up all their draft capital

When you bring in 3 higher priced free agents one year and then another the following year.... your cap gets full very quickly.

Wingard wants to be paid better and they probably don't have the cap space anymore. So, trade him now for pick 7 or wait a year and get free agency compo of a pick in the teens (if they make finals).

 

[Knightmare]

IF Port had 7, 10&11 plus 2019 first, is in my mind a better offer for GC.

Not sure IF Port would pull the trigger to trade Wingard for pick 7, to then trump the Crows offer and get picks 2&3.

Wingard in my view is worth more than pick 7, even with this draft being as exceptional as it is. I'd want a top 4 or 5 pick for him, even this year. He feels somewhat out of favour, but he's still one of the premier forwards in the competition and is also a seriously good midfielder. He's for mine a keeper, but if Adelaide was going to throw that much out there for picks 2/3, probably what would need to happen if Port Adelaide were that desperate for the SA duo.

Even after that Wingard trade, to continue on with the hypothetical, I'd still favour that Adelaide offer. Adelaide's 7 is better than 8, 10 and 11 is better than 13 and 16. But with Adelaide adding 21 it still leads to a larger points total.

The point valuation is:
Port: 1644,1395,1329 = 4369+ 2019 first.
Adelaide: 1551,1212,1067, 878 = 4708 + 2019 first.

Absolutely 7 is better than 8, and the difference is wider than most years and that makes it a genuine discussion which deal you'd take. Maybe that Port Adelaide pick looks more attractive with Wingard/Polec/Pittard all gone. But I'd still go the Adelaide deal unless Port Adelaide added pick 23 on top of all of that which would make that offer decisively better.

 

[Crow till I die]

When you bring in 3 higher priced free agents one year and then another the following year.... your cap gets full very quickly.

Wingard wants to be paid better and they probably don't have the cap space anymore. So, trade him now for pick 7 or wait a year and get free agency compo of a pick in the teens (if they make finals).

True..but they are losing wingard and polec for motlop and watts in terms of salary it hardly strikes as great list management even allowing for picks coming in. Still each to their own

 

[northeasttiger]

Knightmare just a quick question if you can remember from last years draft.

What was Balta's endurance like?

 

[Jirik13]

At present, Suns have picks 2, 3, 19, 24, 29,... If Neale/Hogan/May trades happen add pick 5-6. Don't waste your time on trade scenarios. Suns will keep picks 2 and 3.

 

[LittleG]

Wingard in my view is worth more than pick 7, even with this draft being as exceptional as it is. I'd want a top 4 or 5 pick for him, even this year. He feels somewhat out of favour, but he's still one of the premier forwards in the competition and is also a seriously good midfielder. He's for mine a keeper, but if Adelaide was going to throw that much out there for picks 2/3, probably what would need to happen if Port Adelaide were that desperate for the SA duo.

Even after that Wingard trade, to continue on with the hypothetical, I'd still favour that Adelaide offer. Adelaide's 7 is better than 8, 10 and 11 is better than 13 and 16. But with Adelaide adding 21 it still leads to a larger points total.

The point valuation is:
Port: 1644,1395,1329 = 4369+ 2019 first.
Adelaide: 1551,1212,1067, 878 = 4708 + 2019 first.

Absolutely 7 is better than 8, and the difference is wider than most years and that makes it a genuine discussion which deal you'd take. Maybe that Port Adelaide pick looks more attractive with Wingard/Polec/Pittard all gone. But I'd still go the Adelaide deal unless Port Adelaide added pick 23 on top of all of that which would make that offer decisively better.

I agree that Wingard is worth more than Pick 7, pick 4/5 is probably about right.

I don't think points is a good way to work out the relative values of the picks. Later picks are overvalued in the AFL system. Would you trade picks 7,10&11 for 8,13,16&21? I wouldn't.

IF you must use points, I would suggest Ports 2019 pick would be earlier in the draft, as they will lose more senior players this offseason than the Crows.

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare just a quick question if you can remember from last years draft.

What was Balta's endurance like?

Don't have his data - gps or testing.

My eye test says average. Not good, not bad. Very fast-twitch obviously with all that explosiveness and a real burst style athlete who in bursts can cover a lot of ground in a hurry if he wants to.

At present, Suns have picks 2, 3, 19, 24, 29,... If Neale/Hogan/May trades happen add pick 5-6. Don't waste your time on trade scenarios. Suns will keep picks 2 and 3.

I expect you're right, that Gold Coast will keep picks 2/3.

That's why it would take a radical offer such as those being discussed for Gold Coast to even listen to offers.

I agree that Wingard is worth more than Pick 7, pick 4/5 is probably about right.

I don't think points is a good way to work out the relative values of the picks. Later picks are overvalued in the AFL system. Would you trade picks 7,10&11 for 8,13,16&21? I wouldn't.

IF you must use points, I would suggest Ports 2019 pick would be earlier in the draft, as they will lose more senior players this offseason than the Crows.

I'd take the group of picks that includes pick 21. The picks aren't that different. 10 and 11 isn't much more than 13 and 16. 7 is better than 8 and the clearest of differences. But not such a difference that I wouldn't want 21. The early 20s feels like another sweet spot in this draft, not being much worse than the 8 onwards range with the draft from there flattening out.

I'd take my chances.

But it's one I did need to think about.

I do think you're right about Port's 2019 pick likely being earlier than Adelaide's given the offseason losses and perhaps more to come. Both teams do have scope to rise, and it's not like Port are likely to drop right down. So I didn't think that's enough of a worthwhile risk.

It's one of those you could go either way on though. It's an exceedingly close call.

Another pick value index and arguably better than the AFL one is the HPNFooty value index.

https://www.hpnfooty.com/?p=23062

That one to an even greater extent though leans towards taking the extra pick.

 

[Rise_up_Stiffy]

At present, Suns have picks 2, 3, 19, 24, 29,... If Neale/Hogan/May trades happen add pick 5-6. Don't waste your time on trade scenarios. Suns will keep picks 2 and 3.

Agreed. Unless May doesn't leave.

 

[RedmanWasHere]

Is Wingard worth more to Hawthorn, St Kilda or Footscray?

 

[LittleG]

Is Wingard worth more to Hawthorn, St Kilda or Footscray?

Easy. Port. They don't have to trade anything to keep him and just need to pay him what he is asking for.

 

[vozzon]

Easy. Port. They don't have to trade anything to keep him and just need to pay him what he is asking for.

I would prefer we do that lol.

If he leaves we wont be getting what he is worth, and who ever picks him up will be winning that trade.

 

[Claude Balls]

How can a key forward possibly be the “best prospect we’ve seen in 10 years”, when his listed weaknesses are “one-on-one marking”, and “marking not consistently one-grab”?

 

[Janus]

Depends how many of those pieces those clubs are open to moving.

Carlton love Walsh and Gold Coast love Lukosius. So they're the two picks with the greatest price premiums attached and it's going to take well overs to get either. Then you've got those top 7 picks that are that next bracket in the minds of recruiters that hold serious value and again clubs will have to pay well overs to get one of those picks.

Would the Crows give up 8, 13 and their 2019 first round pick to move up to pick 1 or 2? If so maybe Carlton or Gold Coast think about it. (In points value index terms probably 1000+ points overs for either club to seriously consider the offer)

Adelaide's picks 8 and 13 or Port's picks 10 and 11 may get in the conversation for a trade for pick 3 or 4, though favourable pick switching may also be required to get the deal over the line (In points value index terms probably 500+ over).

What should both clubs do? I'm even more enthralled by the top end (not Walsh) but Lukosius/Rankine/Smith I rate more highly than recruiters do and I'd take just about any offer I can to move into that top group. In the situations of Adelaide or Port, specifically to get Lukosius or Rankine.

In Adelaide's situation I'd go big and go for picks 2 and 3 (to secure Lukosius and Rankine) and offer 8,13,16,21 and the clubs 2019 first round pick and some later pick switches if that satisfied Gold Coast. I'd also be open to changing out some of those parts for players if that suits Gold Coast better.

Adelaide has already traded their future third round pick for Carlton's future fifth round pick. Pretty sure that means they can't trade their future first anymore.

"If a club trades a future first-round selection, it may not trade any other future selection from that same draft. But if a club keeps its future first-round selection, it can trade any of its future selections from other rounds."

So if you were to read that another way: "If a club trades any of its future selections from other rounds, it may not trade a future first-round selection."

That's why Reid was on radio in Adelaide saying that it will be very hard for Adelaide to trade into the top five. They don't have draft hand Port do. And since Port have two F/S picks that would be considered pretty decent in Burgoyne and Mead coming through, the chances of us trading out a future first are better.

 

[Knightmare]

Is Wingard worth more to Hawthorn, St Kilda or Footscray?

Port Adelaide shouldn't be trading Wingard.

To answer the question, Hawthorn are the better of the three clubs with more established players in that suitable age group to win now. St Kilda are not an appropriate destination as a club that needs more good young talent and will be a long term building situation. WBD he would be useful for, but Wingard isn't taking them into premiership contention.

How can a key forward possibly be the “best prospect we’ve seen in 10 years”, when his listed weaknesses are “one-on-one marking”, and “marking not consistently one-grab”?

That's me trying to find knocks more so than those being weak areas.

Neither areas are bad.

He was equal second during the u18 champs for contested marks and he'll have games with 10,11,12 marks.

I'd just like to see him be able to dominate guys 1v1 and take marks in those circumstances - so that he has that to a high level as well as being able to work opponents over so easily.

With the taking marks one grab, that was more a 2017 concern where if felt like he juggled it too often. Hasn't really been an issue for him this year, only seeing it once or twice from him this year, but it's something where ideally he takes everything one grab and becomes a more powerful one take contested mark if he wants to reach that N.Riewoldt level.

 

[BORIS332]

KM can you tell me which high production midfielders in this draft have the best kicks?

 

[MotleyLemon]

Hey KM,

Any thoughts on Guy Richardson from NSW/ACT u18s, believe he may be Giants academy? Was nominated for state combine by Giants, Hawks and North...

 

[Jars458]

Adelaide has already traded their future third round pick for Carlton's future fifth round pick. Pretty sure that means they can't trade their future first anymore.

"If a club trades a future first-round selection, it may not trade any other future selection from that same draft. But if a club keeps its future first-round selection, it can trade any of its future selections from other rounds."

So if you were to read that another way: "If a club trades any of its future selections from other rounds, it may not trade a future first-round selection."

That's why Reid was on radio in Adelaide saying that it will be very hard for Adelaide to trade into the top five. They don't have draft hand Port do. And since Port have two F/S picks that would be considered pretty decent in Burgoyne and Mead coming through, the chances of us trading out a future first are better.

Its an interesting one. I agree with you that logically that should be the interpretation. Then again, it doesn't say that when it easily could have said it. A thin argument but this is the AFL we are talking about....

 

[bluemax]

Hi Knightmare, given Smith is above Walsh in your power rankings, is there any chance that Carlton would take him with number 1? He sounds like the type of player who could really take some of the pressure off of Cripps.

 

[Knightmare]

KM can you tell me which high production midfielders in this draft have the best kicks?

Bailey Smith is the clear standout.

Many will say Sam Walsh is in that conversation.

Duursma, Stocker, Stack and Valente are all high production, good users.

Some would say Caldwell and Jones as they're both dual sided, but they lack some precision.

Hey KM,

Any thoughts on Guy Richardson from NSW/ACT u18s, believe he may be Giants academy? Was nominated for state combine by Giants, Hawks and North...

Rebounding defender. Showed some signs through the u18 champs with his run and ball use.

Hi Knightmare, given Smith is above Walsh in your power rankings, is there any chance that Carlton would take him with number 1? He sounds like the type of player who could really take some of the pressure off of Cripps.

If Carlton have pick 1. They're taking Walsh.

As my power rankings would suggest, Walsh isn't the guy I'd take. Lukosius is. But then i'd also trade for a pick around 5 to get Smith who I consider better than Walsh as he's a better kick, more explosive and stronger contested ball winner.

 

[foodles05]

Like him. Top 25 on my draft board.

Powerful ball winner. Powerful tackler. Ultra explosive. Skills seem pretty good. Looks very developable.

Worth a second round pick.

Agreed with a lot of what you said except he has a pretty ordinary kick. It has improved a lot this year but is still quite unreliable and he has a bad ball drop. Haven't been as sold on him as others but his last couple of months were very impressive.

 

[foodles05]

Bailey Smith is the clear standout.

Many will say Sam Walsh is in that conversation.

Duursma, Stocker, Stack and Valente are all high production, good users.

Some would say Caldwell and Jones as they're both dual sided, but they lack some precision.



Rebounding defender. Showed some signs through the u18 champs with his run and ball use.



If Carlton have pick 1. They're taking Walsh.

As my power rankings would suggest, Walsh isn't the guy I'd take. Lukosius is. But then i'd also trade for a pick around 5 to get Smith who I consider better than Walsh as he's a better kick, more explosive and stronger contested ball winner.

Valente is the best ball user and one of the best I have seen. He kicks is 55+ on both sides and I know of a number of recruiters who had to ask him which side he was even after watching him a number of times. He is an outstanding user. Pace is the only thing that prevents him from being at the pointy end of the draft. That an Norwood never playing their young kids at higher levels. Hurts them in my opinion.

 

[sunsofanarchy]

Hey KM, who is the best KPD other than King who will be available at pick 19?

 

[Knightmare]

Hey KM, who is the best KPD other than King who will be available at pick 19?

He's played as a key forward, but Noah Gown after Lukosius and the King's is that next best KPP.

With the way he reads it, takes a grab and wins his 1v1s, Gown should be very capable if ever he switched to play key defence.

Unclear where he gets picked as he was only a state combine invite, but he's one I'd consider strongly if in need of a KPP after the premium KPPs have been taken.

 

[Knightmare]

AFL Draft Combine wrap: http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/24952197/afl-draft-combine-wrap-sam-sturt-izak-rankine-shine

 

[daddy_4_eyes]

Knightmare How would you group the kids coming through in terms of their draft position?
I.e. Lukosius, Rankin, Walsh sound like they're a lock for top 3. What's the next group?

I know you have projected draft range in your power rankings, but they're fairly broad. I'm trying to get a feel for how deep the draft goes as there's a lot of talk on the eagles board around just how much our 20 & 22 draft picks are worth.