Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2018 AFL Draft Almanac

[Prochard123]

Hey Knightmare, how do you rate the chances of Ben King being available at around pick 7/8? Seems quite likely that Walsh, Lukoskios, M King, Rozee, rankine, Walsh being the top 6 pick right?

I'd absolutely love to trade in pick 7/8 for King, what do you think it would take?

Would almost do pick 18 + 2019 1st round pick for pick 8 + sweeteners

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare How would you group the kids coming through in terms of their draft position?
I.e. Lukosius, Rankin, Walsh sound like they're a lock for top 3. What's the next group?

I know you have projected draft range in your power rankings, but they're fairly broad. I'm trying to get a feel for how deep the draft goes as there's a lot of talk on the eagles board around just how much our 20 & 22 draft picks are worth.

Rankine isn't a certain pick 3. I have that pick up in the air. Unless Gold Coast get another top-5 pick, I suspect they may go Rozee.

Walsh/Lukosius are picks 1/2 if Carlton/Gold Coast have the picks.

Then you've got in some order Rozee/M.King/Rankine/B.King/B.Smith/Blakey.

Those 8 are considered a fair way ahead of all the others as players who all would slot into the top-5 in any given year.

Picks 20/22 I don't see as much worse than picks 9/10. After that first 8 the draft flattens out and there is more interpretation for that next roughly 20 players.

 

[Knightmare]

Hey Knightmare, how do you rate the chances of Ben King being available at around pick 7/8? Seems quite likely that Walsh, Lukoskios, M King, Rozee, rankine, Walsh being the top 6 pick right?

I'd absolutely love to trade in pick 7/8 for King, what do you think it would take?

Would almost do pick 18 + 2019 1st round pick for pick 8 + sweeteners

You mentioned Walsh twice. That top-5 is likely to all fit inside the top 6. From there the question is whether Smith or B.King join. One or the other probably makes it through to 7. So it is a sweet spot in the draft, but other clubs know it also.

Langdon, a first rounder and pick upgrades would be what I'd be expect for an offer to be considered.

Would I do it? I'm not in love with King's game that much to feel that urgency. I would pay for Lukosius/Rankine/Smith/Walsh/M.King but B.King isn't so dominant I'd do that.

I'd rather get a Noah Gown if he makes it into the third round or alternatively trade for him on draft night if taken before Collingwood have a later active pick. Forward or back, I like his scope to develop a lot.

 

[HedgeFund]

Knightmare just a quick question if you can remember from last years draft.

What was Balta's endurance like?

Balta didn’t do the Yo-Yo and ran 6.50 for the 2k which was just below average, to not bad for a big guy

 

[Rise_up_Stiffy]

Rankine isn't a certain pick 3. I have that pick up in the air. Unless Gold Coast get another top-5 pick, I suspect they may go Rozee.

Walsh/Lukosius are picks 1/2 if Carlton/Gold Coast have the picks.

Then you've got in some order Rozee/M.King/Rankine/B.King/B.Smith/Blakey.

Those 8 are considered a fair way ahead of all the others as players who all would slot into the top-5 in any given year.

Picks 20/22 I don't see as much worse than picks 9/10. After that first 8 the draft flattens out and there is more interpretation for that next roughly 20 players.

So Crows pick 8 is just after the sweet spot. Yay

 

[Knightmare]

So Crows pick 8 is just after the sweet spot. Yay

Just outside it. Hately can be had there if the Crows are enthused about him. But to get a Rankine or Rozee, a higher pick is needed.

Port had to pay a lot to move up just to 6.

 

[TheShardMan]

Has ian hill regressed this year? Was hearing him in top 10 calculations last year and not much lately.

 

[Knightmare]

Has ian hill regressed this year? Was hearing him in top 10 calculations last year and not much lately.

Slight regression. Mostly just hasn't come along.

My issue since the start of the season has been he's a small who doesn't find/win enough of the footy. And then on top of that not showing any improvement - noting that smalls are more what you see is what you get. So I don't rate him all that highly with all those factors in combination suggesting he probably won't develop.

Clubs seem to have him around the early second round mark is my feel and rate him more highly than I do.

 

[TheShardMan]

Slight regression. Mostly just hasn't come along.

My issue since the start of the season has been he's a small who doesn't find/win enough of the footy. And then on top of that not showing any improvement - noting that smalls are more what you see is what you get. So I don't rate him all that highly with all those factors in combination suggesting he probably won't develop.

Clubs seem to have him around the early second round mark is my feel and rate him more highly than I do.

Thanks for your reply. Good luck for the busy month ahead.

 

[BORIS332]

Sparrow is one worth asking me about in another months time. Seeing more games, I'll have a much stronger opinion of him then.

Maybe as with Crossley last year and Ronke in 2016, he might be a Knightmare special. Or he may be one who drops to more like 40/50 if it turns out that play v WA was not what he normally shows.

Update on Sparrow? Is he still a top 20 prospect for you?

 

[Knightmare]

Update on Sparrow? Is he still a top 20 prospect for you?

Not top-20 in my most recent power rankings (see October Power Rankings link on page 1 or in my signature). But he's top-25 in my extended power rankings.

 

[M Malice]

So Crows pick 8 is just after the sweet spot. Yay

Your 8, 13 & 16. for our 5, and next years first (3-7probably)?

 

[Knightmare]

Your 8, 13 & 16. for our 5, and next years first (3-7probably)?

Adelaide would do that deal. Get them ahead of Port. May net them Rankine if they did.

 

[Tjblues]

Any info on Matt Owies, who the blues have just picked up as a category b rookie?

Thanks

 

[Knightmare]

Any info on Matt Owies, who the blues have just picked up as a category b rookie?

Thanks

All I'm aware of is - former junior Australian basketballer. 21. 183cm. Presumably he'd be a quick/dexterous type if he's playing b-ball at a high level at that height.

 

[Savage Kent]

Hey KM if the saints hold onto pick 28 in this year's draft who would be a good and realistic get at this point? In particular are there any quality med-small forwards with speed, tackling pressure and scoreboard impact who will be around this mark? I like the look of McHenry who appears likely to start off as a pressure small forward then moving into the midfield over the time. Is he most likely to be gone by our pick?

 

[Knightmare]

Hey KM if the saints hold onto pick 28 in this year's draft who would be a good and realistic get at this point? In particular are there any quality med-small forwards with speed, tackling pressure and scoreboard impact who will be around this mark? I like the look of McHenry who appears likely to start off as a pressure small forward then moving into the midfield over the time. Is he most likely to be gone by our pick?

Ned McHenry would be an ideal get at 28 for a speedy, pressure specialist up forward. He's ready-to-go and the clear best at that role in this draft. Jarrod Cameron (WCE Academy) is that other one I like in that role but West Coast can match bids.

For an alternative outside the AFL. I like Ben Cavarra (mature ager from VFL - Williamstown) as a rookie. He can play that same role and do it from round 1 to a solid standard. 34 goals from 20 VFL games and 93 tackles which is excellent for a small forward. He also can push through the midfield.

Around 28, I can see a possible slider making it through. It's a good spot in this draft. Maybe an Ely Smith for a tall, ball winning mid. Thomas Sparrow is another good mid who is aggressive and explosive. Luke Valente I like as a skilled ball winning mid. Noah Gown if you want a KPP. If you feel like you're missing out on not getting Rankine early, Sydney Stack I like a lot, though he might be available later. They're some names I'd have on my shortlist at that pick, unless there is a notable slider.

 

[Bicks]

Some of the top performers at the SA State Combine held this morning at Prince Alfred College.

20m Sprint
Jake Tarca (South) 2.96 seconds
Isaac Saywell (Norwood) 2.97 seconds
Jacob Collins (Norwood) 2.98 seconds

Yo-Yo Test
Kai Pudney (Eagles) Level 22.1
Isaac Saywell (Norwood) Level 21.6
Tom Lewis (Sturt) Level 21.4]

Agility Test
Kai Pudney (Eagles) 7.90 seconds
Boyd Woodcock (North) 8.09 seconds
Tom Lewis (Sturt) 8.15 seconds
Job Colwell (South) 8.15 seconds

 

[eDPS]

Some of the top performers at the SA State Combine held this morning at Prince Alfred College.

20m Sprint
Jake Tarca (South) 2.96 seconds
Isaac Saywell (Norwood) 2.97 seconds
Jacob Collins (Norwood) 2.98 seconds

Yo-Yo Test
Kai Pudney (Eagles) Level 22.1
Isaac Saywell (Norwood) Level 21.6
Tom Lewis (Sturt) Level 21.4]

Agility Test
Kai Pudney (Eagles) 7.90 seconds
Boyd Woodcock (North) 8.09 seconds
Tom Lewis (Sturt) 8.15 seconds
Job Colwell (South) 8.15 seconds

Nice of SA to post some state combine results, if only vic did the same

 

[Knightmare]

Some of the top performers at the SA State Combine held this morning at Prince Alfred College.

20m Sprint
Jake Tarca (South) 2.96 seconds
Isaac Saywell (Norwood) 2.97 seconds
Jacob Collins (Norwood) 2.98 seconds

Yo-Yo Test
Kai Pudney (Eagles) Level 22.1
Isaac Saywell (Norwood) Level 21.6
Tom Lewis (Sturt) Level 21.4]

Agility Test
Kai Pudney (Eagles) 7.90 seconds
Boyd Woodcock (North) 8.09 seconds
Tom Lewis (Sturt) 8.15 seconds
Job Colwell (South) 8.15 seconds

Surprised Frederick wasn't among those highest performers/standout performers in any of the testing. He's the fastest SA prospect on the field. Ultra slick, ultra clean and super quick and instinctive Port Academy guy who just goes.

 

[Bicks]

Nice of SA to post some state combine results, if only vic did the same

 

[eDPS]

That’s all though, Wanted to see the other tests

 

[x_les_x]

Hey KM got a few questions

what are the chances gc pick up both kings over luko especially with lynch and may going or gone?
In the event both rankine and rozee are gone who do you see port gunning for?poster on our board supposedly said we had interest in m king
Can pudney/frederick play afl in 2019?

cheers

 

[Knightmare]

Hey KM got a few questions

what are the chances gc pick up both kings over luko especially with lynch and may going or gone?
In the event both rankine and rozee are gone who do you see port gunning for?poster on our board supposedly said we had interest in m king
Can pudney/frederick play afl in 2019?

cheers

GC want Lukosius. If they have pick 2. That's who they take unless some other club gets 1 and takes him there.

Port probably take the best available if Rankine/Rozee aren't there. Might be Smith might be B.King. M.King probably is gone by then.

Of those Port Academy boys, and both are draftable either late or rookie. But Frederick is the one I really like. Ultra explosive. One touch at ground level. He just has that something developable. You wouldn't draft either expecting they play regular AFL football in 2019. Unless you're drafting someone top-10 it's probably not fair to expect. It's more a bonus if they're good enough/can push past others during the season.

 

[GT619]

Who do you have ahead of the two Smith or Walsh