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Prediction Changes vs WCE ~ Round 3 2019

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A few players are copping it undeservedly I think. Just like people were calling for Mayne to be dropped after R1, didn’t watch the game properly.

Stephenson had an excellent second half. He kicked 2 goals and 3 assists for the game only second on score involvements to Pendles. He mostly benefitted from better team ball movement but there’s no reason to drop him when he’s getting his season into gear.

Varcoe has low impact on possessions but keep in mind he’s the player who saw the least game time of any on the ground.

He’s also a smart player that helps others work better. I’ll give an example: in the Stephenson goal in the last quarter when Mihocek got the ball on the wing he didn’t have an option or know where to go immediately. Varcoe ran past Elliott, told him to push deeper, went to take the space on the pocket dragging a player with him and as a result Elliott got free, marked the ball and gave it off to Stephenson for a goal. This all happened in 5 seconds.
Varcoe would get zero statistical recognition for this but technically I don’t think we score a goal without his instinct there.

I still think he needs to do more but there isn’t an immediate replacement for his position so we can’t afford to lose him at this point (closest would be to move Greenwood forward, and bring Sier/Adams back in the middle). We already concede too many goals on the rebound because we didn’t lock the ball in properly around our F50 line.

On the other hand I was surprised to hear Bucks say he was happy with Aish’s game. Sure he got a lot of the ball and didn’t get done defensively (though our defence works well as a team without him in it) but his decision making was poor and that’s the only reason I can see him carve out a space for himself in our defence.

But here as well who do we bring in for him? Only one I can see happen is Appleby but we’d need to be really worried about one of their small forwards to do so as we’ll lose some possession control in defence as a result.

Long story short, no changes.
 
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Haha forgot how many delusional supporters we have, drop aish, drop Phillip's? Hahaha unbelievable

Phillip's is our best 2 way runner along with sidebottom and is often the player linking up our defence to our forward line. If he gets dropped those transitions and switches to the wings wouldn't happen no where near as frequently and effectively lol.

Aish I would understand if we had another defensive type of player who was demanding selection. But we don't and aish performs his role well, he averages around 20 possessions a game and takes some solid grabs. I don't see how he could possibly be dropped for anyone let alone for a midfielder or a forward.
 
The only change I'd consider is keeping Pendles and Sidebottom out of the center bounces. The new rule favours quick hacks forward and ferocity and pace at the ball. Neither of those two are particularly strong in that area.

Start Sidey on the wing, as the new rule is perfect for him in that regard. His running power will be an awesome asset.

Start Pendles at half back, or forward. His disposal and 1 on 1 ability will be better suited there until the ball moves out if the starting 6,6,6 formation.

Given our midfield depth we can accommodate such thinking. A combo of Beams, Treloar, Adams, Sier or De Goey would be better in the square. Chuck Grundy in the mix and we'll never lose a center clearance again.

No, I think that Pendles ability to hit targets and create space is invaluable as a complement to the hacking/grunt efforts of some of our players in the centre square. Leave him in the centre. Sidebottom is better off a wing and was very effective, in that capacity, on Thursday.
 
There is absolutely no way the suspension stands
 
If that's his plan then it's really confusing how he averages less than a tackle per quarter !
It’s actually quite obvious, because he targets the outside receive rather than go inside and rack up a few tackles like Blair would his tackle stat isn’t as high.
 
Maybe I need to rewatch the game because that wasn't my recollection of Aish's performance. He had that one out of bounds but I thought was pretty clean outside that. I reckon he is doing enough and should only be pushed out if a half back really demands it in the VFL.

Appleby would be the more likely option to me as I understand his VFL form has been good and he has proven AFL performances. Quaynors time will come and I hope we are patient with him. No need to rush him in especially when his JLT minutes suggest he's still adjusting to AFL pace.

Watch the second half. He has 8 kicks, 5 or 6 are direct turnovers.
He went at like 40% by foot - 63% overall due to being able handball (praise the Lord)
 
When did Varcoe create turnovers? People keep trotting out this line but i watched him all game and dont think he created a single turnover.. he hasnt gotten a free kick for his tackling this season either, but he has given one away.

His pressure is good but I agree I think he wasn’t great Thursday. Has anyone noticed he is basically 0% chance in the air and almost wants it to be on the ground I think this is his biggest weakness (may be shoulder issues etc I don’t know). And sometimes instead of creating or taking chances he almost lets them get to be able to pressure. Early season and competition for spots is always a good thing.
 
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His pressure is good but I agree I think he wasn’t great Thursday. Has anyone noticed he is basically 0% chance in the air and almost wants it to be on the ground I think this is his biggest weakness (may be shoulder issues etc I don’t know). And sometimes instead of creating or taking chances he almost lets them get to be able to pressure. Early season and competition for spots is always a good thing.

Do the VFL have the week off. Saw a couple of the lads out last night.

VFL first game is next Saturday
 

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Assuming Cox gets a week off which would be absolutely ludicrous,
Would they bring in a defender and perhaps send Moore to play forward and spend time in the Ruck?

Goldsack I would assume
 
Assuming Cox gets a week off which would be absolutely ludicrous,
Would they bring in a defender and perhaps send Moore to play forward and spend time in the Ruck?

I expect it will be Goldsack in as a swing man who would play primarily fwd - perhaps v McGovern - but could cover kpd if Roughead is called upon for ruck relief.
This is not ideal v West Coast but for the sake of the sport let’s hope the suspension is overturned.
 
Just because someone was on a winning team does not mean they contributed in an overall positive manner to the team, lots of players contribute at a net loss considering their opponents have impacts too. I bet Varcoes opponent did more than 5 touches 3 tackles in a game.
If we expect all 22 to get 40 possessions a game, we will be running round in circles all day. Each player has a role to play and they are not always captured in stats

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Goldsack forward to keep the structure the same.

Agree, theres no obvious replacement for Cox so Goldsack the best fit. Both Moore and Roughead can ruck and Goldy can swing back there if required so theres no lack of options.

That said I'd prefer we played Roughead in the second ruck role over Moore.
 
Roughead has a chance to have a big one down back. I think Howe will go to Jack Darling and Moore will go to Kennedy.

That leaves Roughead on Vardy/Hickey when they rest forward, if he can keep them relatively quiet and give us another 10+ mark 15-20 disposal that would be huge. His height as the 3rd man in has helped.
 
Watch the second half. He has 8 kicks, 5 or 6 are direct turnovers.
He went at like 40% by foot - 63% overall due to being able handball (praise the Lord)

Agree that Aish wasn’t great, though I’d not drop him yet. He’s had 23 with 8 marks and 3 tackles (get that to five tackles and the stats look more rounded).

But his hurt factor was not apparent to me. This is probably confirmed with his low SC score of 56 which is atrocious, considering 10 marks generally equate to 30 points, 3 tackles equate to 12 points. This means that his 23 possessions garnered roughly 14 points!

Not intending to bash Aish, but the most prominent thing I recall of his game is per below;

There was a period in the Fourth I think where Aish had a long kick out of D50 on the Southern Stand wing that went OOF. Richmond were able to re-enter 50, mark, luckily that shot missed.

Then I’m sure it was the resulting kick in that went down the Members wing that Aish again put OOF. I think we were able to repel their F50 entry this time without score. Shortly after, there was another clanged directly to opposition (with no apparent Pie targeted).

He needs to improve, and I think he will.
 
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