Bluemour Discussion Thread XVI - Facts Not Welcome

[Blue and Blue]

Carlton Football Club
Royal Parade
Carlton
Attention: Mr D. Teague​

Re: Edward Curnow
​

Dear Mr Teague,

Please ensure Mr Edward Curnow remains in the midfield henceforth. It is preferential that he is sent to tag the opposition's best midfielder.

Please confirm receipt and acquiescence of this request.

Yours Sincerely,

ferrisb
Class Clown
BigFooty.com

You certainly are a man of letters...........

 

[Mister Carlton]

Not sure how you can call the Stocker trade a failure this early. We still haven't seen what the club are doing with that pick yet.

Don't understand what you don't get. There is a big difference between the pick swaps - Pick 1!
It was a gamble and its backfired completely.

SOS is under so much scrutiny from supporters and internally. Nail in coffin he will walk.

 

[Soapy V]

Don't understand what you don't get. There is a big difference between the pick swaps - Pick 1!
It was a gamble and its backfired completely.

Long way to go and I really don't care.

Given our list and how highly I rate Stocker getting Stocker & Jack Martin (as example) is perfect for our list and what we needed. Don't care about anything else.

 

[Canyouhearthedrums]

The melts will be spectacular if we end up with pick 17 or 18 and hypothetical trade club X sends their player to Hawthorn, Freo or GWS for a pick in the 10-12 range.

 

[CFC18]

Don't understand what you don't get. There is a big difference between the pick swaps - Pick 1!
It was a gamble and its backfired completely.

SOS is under so much scrutiny from supporters and internally. Nail in coffin he will walk.

Yeah no matter how much we may rate Stocker, you don't use pick 1 to get your hands on pick 19. It's as simple as that.

Dangling pick 12 instead of pick 1 is also going to impact the calibre of player opposition clubs will be willing to trade. Neale for example wouldn't be playing for Brisbane had they only a pick 12 to trade.

 

[SammaGilberto]

The melts will be spectacular if we end up with pick 17 or 18 and hypothetical trade club X sends their player to Hawthorn, Freo or GWS for a pick in the 10-12 range.

Adelaide finishing top 2? More chance of Jonesy coming back into the side as a forward and kicking 4 a week to finish off the season...

 

[Blues90]

Pick swap. It will be his downfall.

Why? Bolton couldn't coach wins so that's on sos? Haha

 

[Blue__Balls]

Other than slightly paying overs for Gov, i was really happy with the trade period, mostly i have been happy with his drafting but there has been some really strange selections and our list is still really unbalanced.

Hopefully it all comes together in time but in hindsight im not sure why we recruited Mcgovern considering we only recruited TDK a year earlier. How will TDK fit with Charlie, Gov, Harry and a ruck. It seems very unlikely. I don't see where Finbar its either and why we didn't target a small forward or a mid.

Then there is delisting Kerridge and Lamb when we are supposedly crying out for senior bodies to take some slack and go out and recruit Fas.

Don't think, coming off a 2-win season, we were in a position to knock back quality best 22 players from stronger teams who publically nominated us. Suspect the signing of McGovern was meant to open a few other doors (ie. Shiel) by painting us as a more attractive destination in general, and "strengthening" our claim to be poised for a rise up the ladder. Would have looked pretty ordinary if we turned down a versatile and talented 24yo because we didn't want to give up two second rounders and access to a state league player who still hasn't played a game this season.

Despite some saying they see TDK as a forward/ruck rather than ruck/forward, I think he projects at being good enough at both to be able to play number one ruck in years to come. Could be a bit of a Paddy Ryder type for us.

Finbar, I'll admit, I'm still scratching my head over. But it's possible the recruiters had seen something in him that they just couldn't pass up. Could turn into a Gunston-type which would be a real win. Agree that a small forward would have been preferred, but perhaps we've been into someone from another club and were happy to rotate mids through the forward pocket for one more season? Can't forget that Bugg's recruitment was also meant to help fill that gap.

Kerridge and Lamb, definitely agree with you there. More so Lamb. Ditching him and bringing in Bugg looked OK at the time, as I really did rate Bugg as a handy role player, but his speedy retirement messed us round. Not sure Kerridge would have seen much senior footy, to be honest, and I think Gibbons is a much better player for that supporting midfield role.

 

[Blue__Balls]

Keep your eye on Jacob Dragovich in the WAFL...

Any context to that?

23yo small-ish midfielder, from what I can see - are we into him for a late pick or rookie spot next year?

 

[Bluey24]

I think for a player to be a bust they have to be compared to the players that were drafted following them. If there were multiple substantially better players available to be drafted then yes, you can make an argument that a player has been a bust.

Now, we understand that the only reason Willo hasn't been selected to play more games has been because of injury.

There were 17 players drafted after Willo. Of these:

• 1 of these was an academy selection (Brad Scheer, Gold Coast - 10 games; dropped from the main list and rookied)
• 1 of these was a father-son selection (Jake Waterman - 21 games)

So 2 of these players were unavailable to us.

• Pick 62 -- Matthew Signorello -- delisted. Playing in VFL. 0 AFL games
• Pick 63 -- Dylan Clarke -- Essendon. 2 games.
• Pick 64 -- Dion Johnston -- Melbourne -- delisted. 0 AFL games
• Pick 65 -- Pat Kerr -- Carlton -- 4 games
• Pick 66 -- Luke Ryan -- Fremantle -- 42 games -- great selection as a mature age player (was 20)
• **Pick 67 -- Brad Scheer (see above)
• Pick 68 -- Timm House -- Geelong -- delisted. 0 AFL games
• Pick 69 -- Ryan Abbott -- Geelong -- mature age recruit (is 27 now) -- 5 AFL games
• Pick 70 -- Fergus Greene -- Bulldogs -- 5 AFL games
• Pick 71 -- Corey Lyons -- Brisbane -- 0 AFL games (still listed despite no games yet)
• Pick 72 -- Ryan Garthwaite -- Richmond -- 8 AFL games
• Pick 73 -- Nick Larkey -- North Melbourne -- 7 AFL games
• Pick 74 -- Harry Morrison -- Hawthorn -- 30 AFL games
• Pick 75 -- Ben Davis -- Adelaide -- 0 AFL games (still listed despite no games yet)
• Pick 76 -- Mitchell Lewis -- Hawthorn -- 8 AFL games
• Pick 77** -- Jake Waterman (see above)

So from those players who were drafted AFTER Willo and who were available to Carlton:

• Two of them have played more games than Williamson. Luke Ryan (who was a mature age draftee) and Harry Morrison (who tore his ACL as a bottom ager in the TAC Cup and who benefited from Andrew Russell early in his AFL career).

If we want to go deeper and look at the rookie draft:

• Rowan Marshall -- St. Kilda -- 22 AFL games (mature age recruit)
• Cameron Zuurhaar -- North -- 18 AFL games
• Jack Henry -- Geelong -- 33 AFL games
• Ben Ronke -- Sydney -- 23 AFL games (has been found out; hasn't been selected since round 6)
• Shaun McKernan -- Essendon -- 24 AFL games since 2016 rookie drafting (mature age re-selection)
• Zach Guthrie -- Geelong -- 17 AFL games (tied with Willo)
• Oscar McInerney -- Brisbane -- 26 AFL games (mature age recruit)
• James Cousins -- Hawthorn -- 17 AFL games (tied with Willo)

Out of the 50 additional picks in the rookie draft only 8 of them have managed equal amount of games or better to Willo to date. Of these 3 of them were mature age recruits.

Not many of those 11 total players (including Waterman, unavailable to us) would rate ahead of Williamson.

You can't possibly call Williamson a bust. We did as well as could possibly have been expected to with that selection. Hopefully he gets back on track.

Top post

 

[Bluey24]

Adelaide finishing top 2? More chance of Jonesy coming back into the side as a forward and kicking 4 a week to finish off the season...

Adelaide are building ... Got a good draw in the second-half too

 

[bmaurizio]

The Crow’s pick will be around the 10 -13, whilst our pick will be outside the top 5.
We’ll win Saturday and another 4 games at least, by end of the season.

 

[Blues90]

The Crow’s pick will be around the 10 -13, whilst our pick will be outside the top 5.
We’ll win Saturday and another 4 games at least, by end of the season.

Comments like that is the bad JUJU that makes us lose games and finish out the year s**t we are too cursed for that kind of positivity

 

[Bluebag13]

Adelaide are building ... Got a good draw in the second-half too

Yeah they do have a pretty easy fixture for the remainder of the season. Have them finishing 4th/5th/6th

 

[Blues90]

Yeah they do have a pretty easy fixture for the remainder of the season. Have them finishing 4th/5th/6th

They do but they also drop so many games they shouldnt they should finish 5th or 6th though

 

[Bluebag13]

They do but they also drop so many games they shouldnt they should finish 5th or 6th though

Agree. They are not good enough nor consistent enough to be a genuine top 4 contender. Mind you the hawks finished in 4th last year so anything could happen. Its amazing what 2 ugly wins in a row can do for your confidence.

 

[Bearded Carpenter]

I'm currently in America with 4b2
The toilets here are crap
Water level in bowl to high
All this talk of SOS is like the crappers here

 

[Blues90]

Agree. They are not good enough nor consistent enough to be a genuine top 4 contender. Mind you the hawks finished in 4th last year so anything could happen. Its amazing what 2 ugly wins in a row can do for your confidence.

The hawks d ont have player issues and have Alistair Clarkson

 

[The Flying Doormat]

Yeah no matter how much we may rate Stocker, you don't use pick 1 to get your hands on pick 19. It's as simple as that.

Dangling pick 12 instead of pick 1 is also going to impact the calibre of player opposition clubs will be willing to trade. Neale for example wouldn't be playing for Brisbane had they only a pick 12 to trade.

You're assuming the Cows will win the flag and omitting the Stocker pick altogether in that analysis.

 

[Bluebag13]

The hawks d ont have player issues and have Alistair Clarkson

Though the crows have a better list.

I was just saying that things can change very quickly in football. look at melbourne.

 

[PrinceCharles]

Don't understand what you don't get. There is a big difference between the pick swaps - Pick 1!
It was a gamble and its backfired completely.

SOS is under so much scrutiny from supporters and internally. Nail in coffin he will walk.

Didn't realise we were a lock for the spoon.

Stocker and Pick 10 (likely to be traded) > Pick 1-5, anyway.

 

[The Flying Doormat]

Whats the punchline?

 

[El Topo]

How so? From all reports he's leaving the club at the end of the year.

Tom Morris growing in stature...

pity he wasnt visionary enough to see that borrowing funds illegally through a Pakistani banker, would lead to his downfall

Via the Carlton Football Club

 

[Blue__Balls]

The Crow’s pick will be around the 10 -13, whilst our pick will be outside the top 5.
We’ll win Saturday and another 4 games at least, by end of the season.

For us to get out of the bottom 5, by winning 7 games total, you're banking on:

- One of Essendon, Hawthorn, NM and St Kilda to win 1 or fewer games
- Sydney and WB to win than 2 or fewer games,
- Melbourne and GC to win 3 or fewer games.

That first point is extremely unrealistic, all those sides will win at least 2 games out of the next 10. The others?

"Likely" (more like "reasonably possible") wins are bolded (I've based ours on what I assume you think we'll win).

Carlton: WB (H), Fre (A), Mel (H), Syd (A), GC (H), Ade (H), WC (H), Rich (A), StK (H), Gee (A)

Sydney: Haw (H), GC (H), Ess (A), Car (H), Fre (A), Gee (H), GWS (A), PA (A), Mel (A), StK (H)
WB: Col (H), PA (A), Gee (H), Mel (H), StK (A), Fre (H), Bris (A), Ess (A), GWS (A), Ade (H)
Melbourne: Fre (H), Bris (A), Car (A), WB (A), WC (H), StK (A), Rich (H), Col (H), Syd (H), NM (A)
GC: StK (H), Syd (A), Rich (H), Ade (H), Car (A), Ess (H), Col (A), Bris (A), Haw (A), GWS (H)

All of Essendon, Hawthorn, NM and St Kilda stay ahead.
Sydney stay ahead.
Only got one win pencilled in for WB, but they have a lot of 50/50 games and I reckon they win at least three total.
Melbourne similar, but decent chance we could jump them.
GC look to be running out of puff, doubt they win 4, so we possibly jump them too.

Best case scenario I see us getting to 15th, meaning Adelaide walk away with Pick 4.
Pretty good chance it's Pick 3.
Drop one of those 5 games you've got us winning and it's probably Pick 2.
Feeling confident we should avoid finishing last looking at GC's draw.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Yeah no matter how much we may rate Stocker, you don't use pick 1 to get your hands on pick 19. It's as simple as that.

Dangling pick 12 instead of pick 1 is also going to impact the calibre of player opposition clubs will be willing to trade. Neale for example wouldn't be playing for Brisbane had they only a pick 12 to trade.

I disagree. Pick 12 is the perfect pick to trade. It's a greta pick but not so good you don't want to get rid of it. When was the last time someone traded a pick #1? It's too much capital. No player is theoretically worth pick 31 (Judd wasn't even) because Pick #1 could be the next Judd, Cripps, Dangerfield, Fyfe etc (not that it ever turns out that way but that is the thinking).