AFL 2019 Brownlow Medal (after the result bets will get a ban)

[freo_leo29]

Are there any promos going on today?

 

[Jobe Watson]

Yeah I really don't share the confidence in Higgins that a lot on here do. I have him winning but it's by 1 over Cunnington. And Cunnington has plenty of chances to sneak some extra votes.

Collingwood, Adelaide, Carlton (w/o Cripps), West Coast, GWS, Gold Coast, Port (w/o Boak), Hawthorn too close to call. Also think there may be a massive upset with a <1.20 chance like Billings polling way under expectations and destroying everyone's multis.

As long as we all have fun, we are all winners.

 

[jack 23]

Neds promo isnt any good. Cripps top 5 $3. I wont even look at that

 

[Johanpetro]

Neds just started their hourly promo. First up Cripps top 5 at $3. Max bet $20

 

[X_box_X]

Neds promo isnt any good. Cripps top 5 $3. I wont even look at that

Seems OK.

Where is this? Do you have to click on Promotions? I can't view them unfortunately.

 

[Johanpetro]

Neds promo isnt any good. Cripps top 5 $3. I wont even look at that

$1.80 elsewhere but yeh I'm not as sold on Cripps as others.

 

[jack 23]

neds specials/promos not hard to find

 

[BuddysBuddy23]

Seems OK.

Where is this? Do you have to click on Promotions? I can't view them unfortunately.

Yeah under promotions, 2pm market

 

[Leeroy Brown 15]

BetEasy Build-A-Bet
Danger 25+, Neale/Fyfe 23+, Bont 20+, Boak 18+, T.Kelly/Grundy/Treloar/Merrett 15+ @ $9.00

I’m on the Boak hype train

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Dangerfield/Fyfe/Cripps

Straight trifecta

Grundy most Pies votes

Tim Tarranto most for GWS

 

[kicksome]

Great insight

Bont is $9 on Sportsbet to poll most votes in the last 8 rounds, with Macrae second favourite at $3.25 behind Danger ($2.75)

Jeez I'm seeing $2.75 for bont

 

[Neale4brownlow]

I always get carried away on Brownlow night.
Probably my single favourite night of the year to place a few punt and sit on the coach with a pizza and a few beers watching the highlights from the year.
I generally always get so close to a pot of gold only for it to be taken away in the dying rounds.

This year I would think its down to the main names: Bont, Danger, Fyfe, Neale and to a lesser extent Kelly.

1) Kelly is going to bolt to an absolute flyer. I can actually see him holding his ground if the others don't poll maximums where they need too.
2) If bont is on 9-10votes by round 5 he's a real sniff.
3) Danger a worthy favourite.

For what it's worth - My count finished up at:

Danger - 28 (Max 29)
Fyfe - 26 (max 30)
Bont 24 (max 32)
Kelly - 24 (max26)
Cripps - 22 (max 24)
Neale - 22 (max 27)

The maximums is me trawling through other sources to find the max anyone thinks they'll score on any given round (coaches votes, afl predictor etc) to see where other counts have players polling.

Given the above I like:
1) Bont to win. He's a massive chance. Chance to poll in 14 games (highest of anyone, ie Danger is 10 games). Umps love him. Won the coaches votes. Tick tick tick. $6.50+ depending on the market. But I like the bets below better:
2) Danger/Bont/Fyfe boxed trifeca (not exacta) - $13. I actually find this a lesser risk than the outright winner bets or quinellas. I'm really confident in these three being the top 3 but not confident in what exact order.
3) Danger/Bont/Fyfe/Kelly boxed top 4 (not exacta) - $51. Kelly will bolt early and I'm not sure that Cripps or Neale will catch him to finish in the top 4.

Others I went for were a whole list of hail mary multis for team votes including combos of Pendles / Gaff/ Oliver/ Rocky / Sloane / Walters / Curnow. All long shot, long odds multi with low wagers.

 

[NYRB]

Dom Sheed had has Best season. Gaff is a traditionally a good poll getter. West coast leading vote getter could go either 4 way .

What's people's thoughts on Yeo as a top 10 chance?

 

[pendlebury_10]

Jeez I'm seeing $2.75 for bont

It has already been wound in!

 

[NYRB]

I also think after the 2018 AFL Grand Final, more media paid attention to how good a football Dom Sheed is. He is no longer “that guy that came off a rookie list”, “the guy who kicked the winning AFL Grand Final goal”. He would have been noticeable for his in and under presence for the football and I don’t have the stats on me now , chimes in with a few hand goals as well.

 

[Slipps]

Whitfield to lead after round 5 and 10 even missing two games at $29

Prestia to finish top 10 $7 on sportsbet its $3.50 on TAB... Richmond bias obviously from me but hes a big chance to win our BnF managed 13 votes back in 2014 playing along side Ablett.

Tim Taranto top 10 finish at $11 aswell had a great season and could have benefited from other mids getting injured like Whitfield Kelly and Cogs throughout the the season.

Will be on all of them.

 

[mitchzz]

I also think after the 2018 AFL Grand Final, more media paid attention to how good a football Dom Sheed is. He is no longer “that guy that came off a rookie list”, “the guy who kicked the winning AFL Grand Final goal”. He would have been noticeable for his in and under presence for the football and I don’t have the stats on me now , chimes in with a few hand goals as well.

I mean, he never did come off a rookie list, but I get your point

 

[X_box_X]

Pick your slider and bolter between now and Brownlow night.

Bolter:
Fyfe (currently $5.90 - $6.40). I can see him coming in to about $4.20 - $4.40 once the Brownlow gurus predictions are made public. It will follow the trend of Dusty Martin coming in from $4.50 to $2.90 (winner w/o Mitchell) after round 23 last year when he released his Brownlow predictions.

Slider:
Grundy (currently $20 - $21). I can see him drifting out to $26 - $27. It's the ruckman factor. The same thing happened to both Grundy and Gawn last year where their odds drifting quite significantly in the lead up to the Brownlow.

I have put my money where my mouth is by backing Fyfe at $6.60 and laying Grundy at $21.

This year has to be a first for a market post round 23 being very similar to the market on the day of the Brownlow.

Danger - $2.62
Neale - $6
Fyfe - $7
Bont - $9.40
Cripps - $14.50
Grundy - $22

Bont seems to be the only one that has moved more than 10% from the favourites.

 

[benji21]

Just saw the Data game for Brownlow (Champion Data).

The main things to take out:
Treloar ahead of Grundy and in the 20s.
Boak 20.5
Macrae ahead of Bont

 

[CarterS]

McCluggage - 3 Votes in Round 7 @ $7
Lyons most Brisbane votes without Neale @ 5

 

[X_box_X]

Has Neds released info on what all their hourly promos will be?

 

[illegaleagle]

Whitfield vote leader after round 5 and 10 @34 & @29
Sheed eagles leading votes getter @ $7.50

 

[iluvparis]

Who has biggest odds on a tie right now?

 

[freo_leo29]

Billings $2 most saints votes at neds

 

[Browney2006]

3pm Ned’s promo. Billing’s most st Kilda votes @ $2, max $20