Can Hawthorn succeed while ignoring the elite end of the draft?

[hk89]

I was talking about Josh Kelly not Tim Kelly.

Ok, but Josh is only a year younger than Tim.

So the boundaries you've put in the debate is the best inside midfielder from the past 3 drafts?

That sounds reasonable given Worpel's own age. 'Young' is entirely dependent on the context. 'Young' could extend up to around 25ish depending on the context (for example on our list right now, a 25 year old could probably be considered 'young' if you are comparing them to our list in general). Everyone is 'young' if you compare them to Burgoyne

That's perfectly fine. Worpel has probably shown more than most young mids drafted in the past three years. It will be interesting to see if others go past him when they physically mature as well

Yup, that's certainly the big question. He's started with a fairly mature body so you'd expect players with slightly less mature bodies (like Walsh?) to have more scope for improvement. I think from a Hawthorn perspective the positive sign is that Worpel has actually come on massively in the second half of his second year, despite already having a very mature body prior to that, so I think it is fair to say his cluster of Brownlow vote getting games in the second half of the year was more about him having greatly improved in a bunch of areas, not just a guy benefiting from an 'AFL ready' body. Getting Sam Mitchell in as his tutor along with his massive drive for working on his game seems to have boosted him to a new level.

Last year I would have said he was a handy late pick. After this year, I'd say he'd probably be one of the best picks in the 2017 draft, but I agree with you that we probably need to wait a year or so to see how others progress as their bodies mature. At the moment it is hard to find anyone outperforming him that isn't older. I might be missing one, but I think Worpel is probably in the best 3 21 and under mids in the competition in terms of actual numbers produced (and ignoring nebulous 'as yet unreached talent potential'). With Taranto and Walsh the other two, and Worpel probably slightly edging both of those on numbers this year (despite Walsh having a fairly next level debut season).

 

[Leeda]

Worpel, Gunners, Impy... Landslide.. Roughnuts, Wanderer, Heather, Northern,, and we go on...

simple but effective...

 

[Foucault1989]

Ok, but Josh is only a year younger than Tim.



That sounds reasonable given Worpel's own age. 'Young' is entirely dependent on the context. 'Young' could extend up to around 25ish depending on the context (for example on our list right now, a 25 year old could probably be considered 'young' if you are comparing them to our list in general). Everyone is 'young' if you compare them to Burgoyne



Yup, that's certainly the big question. He's started with a fairly mature body so you'd expect players with slightly less mature bodies (like Walsh?) to have more scope for improvement. I think from a Hawthorn perspective the positive sign is that Worpel has actually come on massively in the second half of his second year, despite already having a very mature body prior to that, so I think it is fair to say his cluster of Brownlow vote getting games in the second half of the year was more about him having greatly improved in a bunch of areas, not just a guy benefiting from an 'AFL ready' body. Getting Sam Mitchell in as his tutor along with his massive drive for working on his game seems to have boosted him to a new level.

Last year I would have said he was a handy late pick. After this year, I'd say he'd probably be one of the best picks in the 2017 draft, but I agree with you that we probably need to wait a year or so to see how others progress as their bodies mature. At the moment it is hard to find anyone outperforming him that isn't older. I might be missing one, but I think Worpel is probably in the best 3 21 and under mids in the competition in terms of actual numbers produced (and ignoring nebulous 'as yet unreached talent potential'). With Taranto and Walsh the other two, and Worpel probably slightly edging both of those on numbers this year (despite Walsh having a fairly next level debut season).

All reasonable points. Good exchange

 

[4THAWN]

The real question is will this thread be killed if/when hawthorn gets 2 1st round draftees this year?

 

[juss]

The real question is will this thread be killed if/when hawthorn gets 2 1st round draftees this year?

Well no, it won't be based on what they do this off season and they don't look like having great success in 2020

 

[WWSD]

Well no, it won't be based on what they do this off season and they don't look like having great success in 2020

Hawthorn already defeated GWS (twice), West Coast, Geelong and Collingwood, stuffed up a 5 goal lead against the Bulldogs and Brisbane. All this without Mitchell!

I will come back on here and bump this thread when Hawthorn play finals in 2020 in which you’ll be proven wrong yet again.

IN
Mitchell
Patton
Frost
Impey
Maginness
Pick 11

Next year Conor Downie is eligible to be selected as the NGA player who is already rated top 5 in the 2020 draft pool.

What a lot of people fail to realise is that the inclusion of Patton, Frost and Mitchell will allow Gunston, Sicily and O’Meara to freewheel.

 

[Gavin Excell]

When Hawthorn finish 9th again can we call out the strategy is shyte?

 

[WWSD]

When Hawthorn finish 9th again can we call out the strategy is shyte?

Hawthorn won’t finish 9th.

Mitchell = game changer

 

[Gavin Excell]

Hawthorn won’t finish 9th.

Mitchell = game changer

But if hawks fail to make finals again it must put a light on things

 

[juss]

Hawthorn already defeated GWS (twice), West Coast, Geelong and Collingwood, stuffed up a 5 goal lead against the Bulldogs and Brisbane. All this without Mitchell!

I will come back on here and bump this thread when Hawthorn play finals in 2020 in which you’ll be proven wrong yet again.

IN
Mitchell
Patton
Frost
Impey
Maginness
Pick 11

Next year Conor Downie is eligible to be selected as the NGA player who is already rated top 5 in the 2020 draft pool.

What a lot of people fail to realise is that the inclusion of Patton, Frost and Mitchell will allow Gunston, Sicily and O’Meara to freewheel.

Proven wrong yet again?
Maybe, we all get things wrong.

I just don't see Hawthorn having any great success in 2020, and if they sneak into finals and got knocked out in the first week I won't consider that success that proves the premise of this thread wrong.

I doubt they will win a final, but its reasonable to suggest they will make it, and just as reasonable that they miss.

 

[Simon_Nesbit]

If Hawthorn miss finals in 2020 it would be a huge disappointment. 2019 was bad enough, as after a woeful start to the season they were in the best 4-5 sides by the end of the year, and will add an MVP calibre player in Mitchell to the lineup at some stage, along with some improved depth in the KPP positions.

A slightly easier fixture than 2019 should see them finish top 4, presuming they don't have the same bad luck on the injury front.

Will still struggle if they get a matchup against Richmond, as they struggle against sides that swarm and run forward of the contest.

 

[Roddy]

I'm expecting something similar to 10 years ago....'09 missed finals, '10 got back in but went out easily, '11 right back in contention. '19, '20, '21 will be similar.

 

[Vindicater]

If Hawthorn miss finals in 2020 it would be a huge disappointment. 2019 was bad enough, as after a woeful start to the season they were in the best 4-5 sides by the end of the year, and will add an MVP calibre player in Mitchell to the lineup at some stage, along with some improved depth in the KPP positions.

A slightly easier fixture than 2019 should see them finish top 4, presuming they don't have the same bad luck on the injury front.

Will still struggle if they get a matchup against Richmond, as they struggle against sides that swarm and run forward of the contest.

You lost to us and North.

That wipes out any good points you got for beating West Coast and GWS.

You are in the middle.

 

[KermitJagger]

When Hawthorn finish 9th again can we call out the strategy is shyte?

Why would you be happy for the strategy to be shyte when Geelong are doing exactly the same?

 

[Gavin Excell]

Why would you be happy for the strategy to be shyte when Geelong are doing exactly the same?

I had this debate with Abasi earlier who argued Hawthorns approach is different

 

[TheFourPillars]

I had this debate with Abasi earlier who argued Hawthorns approach is different

I think it might be subtlety different in terms of who we r targetting. We have mostly targetted top 10 draft picks. Some of them injured of course. But the strategy is the same. I may be wrong with this assumption as i havent catalogued what Geelong has picked up

 

[KermitJagger]

I had this debate with Abasi earlier who argued Hawthorns approach is different

The approach may be different, but it is the same in that the general philosophy is established talent is better than speculative talent

 

[Gavin Excell]

The approach may be different, but it is the same in that the general philosophy is established talent is better than speculative talent

I don’t disagree it’s similar but I reckon it’s not necessarily best path. You need a combination of both draft picks and trading for established picks

Geelong has gone too far away from the draft in my opinion to get short term fixes with established players. Looks like the club is moving away from that by not on trading the Kelly picks received from Eagles

 

[Pessimistic]

The hawks players coming into best 22 have been close to 50:50 from trades and the draft.
Trading in success is about 85% from players traded in compared to about 40% from draftees

40% from draftees given the number of late picks is remarkable.

This trend has been there since about 2010 and smith, stratton are now the draftee veterans. Early on the average age needed to be boosted quickly whereas now the age is slowly coming down

 

[stfan]

There seems to a strong tone of late that Hawks will be better mainly due to Mitchell being back and automatically chalking up extra wins on this basis.

That other teams also had injuries is not factored in. ie Rance at Tigers. GWS not fielding their best 22 etc.

Saints had 14 players out for most of last season and while I know that the Hawks fans have automatically chalked it up as a win all of Carlisle, Geary, Dunstan, Hill, Hannas, Jones, Howard, Ryder and possibly Roberton may be playing next time we meet.

Plus Max King and Bytel were both injured last year. By round 20 when we play they should be in the 22.

Bruce the only loss from those that played in a team that had many out.

Now Saints may or may not win but the thought that the Hawks are the only team that may be better in 2020 is a fanciful one.

Also Mitchell may not find good form straight away. Guys coming back from broken legs are often slow to get good form.

 

[HairyO]

When Hawthorn finish 9th again can we call out the strategy is shyte?

Hawks finish above Geelong next year. So if we finish 9th, Geelong is totally cooked.

Lucky you got all those picks for Kelly.

 

[Pessimistic]

There seems to a strong tone of late that Hawks will be better mainly due to Mitchell being back and automatically chalking up extra wins on this basis.

That other times also had injuries is not factored in. Ie Rance at Tigers. GWS not fielding their best 22 etc.

Saints had 14 players out for most of last season and while I know that the Hawks fans have automatically chalked it up as a win all of Carlisle, Geary, Dunstan, Hill, Hannas, Jones, Howard, Ryder and possibly Roberton may be playing next time we meet.

Plus Max King and Bytel were both injured last year. By round 20 when we play they should be in the 22.

Bruce the only loss from those that played.

Now Saints may or may not but the thought that the Hawks are tje only team that nay be better in 2020 us a fanciful one.

Also Mitchell may not find good form straight away. Guys coming back from broken legs are often slow to get good form.

Trade ins take a while to gel too. btw mitchell not mentioned that often. Was great to see pictures of him running today though

 

[NeXus Nick]

Hawthorn is fast approaching the cliff. Clarkson thinks he is smart but his time is coming.

 

[PenAndPaper]

There seems to a strong tone of late that Hawks will be better mainly due to Mitchell being back and automatically chalking up extra wins on this basis.

That other teams also had injuries is not factored in. ie Rance at Tigers. GWS not fielding their best 22 etc.

Saints had 14 players out for most of last season and while I know that the Hawks fans have automatically chalked it up as a win all of Carlisle, Geary, Dunstan, Hill, Hannas, Jones, Howard, Ryder and possibly Roberton may be playing next time we meet.

Plus Max King and Bytel were both injured last year. By round 20 when we play they should be in the 22.

Bruce the only loss from those that played in a team that had many out.

Now Saints may or may not win but the thought that the Hawks are the only team that may be better in 2020 is a fanciful one.

Also Mitchell may not find good form straight away. Guys coming back from broken legs are often slow to get good form.

Not one person in this thread has said that, most teams are going to have scope for improvement. I think the fact Mitchell was the best player in the comp leading into last season & getting injured made it so that a second season player had to be our main accumulator is where we can see a big improvement for us when the rest of the team was relatively good especially when it was clicking the last 6-8 weeks.

 

[TylerDurden]