Can Hawthorn succeed while ignoring the elite end of the draft?

[Ugottabjokin]

What exactly is the elite end of the draft? Top 5 picks? Top 10 picks? First round picks?
Are the Hawks actually ignoring the elite end? With all their success in recent years they didn't get top 10 draft picks so how is that ignoring the top end when you don't qualify for any due to their own success? Yes we traded away some first round draft picks but it was to get top end draft picks in just ones with established history and from that are we actually ignoring the top end of the draft?
We might not get players in their draft year but getting players from other clubs has been the only way we have been able to get elite draft picks in.
Consider this:
Tom Scully - Pick 1
Jon Patton - Pick 1
Jaeger O'Meara - pick 1 Mini Draft
Chad Wingard - Pick 6
Jack Scrimshaw - Pick 7
Ben mCevoy - Pick 9
James Frawley - Pick 12
Shaun Burgoyne - Pick 12
Tom Mitchell - Pick 21 but as a F/S and they tend to drop lower (Ablett a classic example).

That's a lot of pick 1 draft picks in the same team, from that stat alone you would think we have had the success of Carlton.

 

[TallyHawk]

What exactly is the elite end of the draft? Top 5 picks? Top 10 picks? First round picks?
Are the Hawks actually ignoring the elite end? With all their success in recent years they didn't get top 10 draft picks so how is that ignoring the top end when you don't qualify for any due to their own success? Yes we traded away some first round draft picks but it was to get top end draft picks in just ones with established history and from that are we actually ignoring the top end of the draft?
We might not get players in their draft year but getting players from other clubs has been the only way we have been able to get elite draft picks in.
Consider this:
Tom Scully - Pick 1
Jon Patton - Pick 1
Jaeger O'Meara - pick 1 Mini Draft
Chad Wingard - Pick 6
Jack Scrimshaw - Pick 7
Ben mCevoy - Pick 9
James Frawley - Pick 12
Shaun Burgoyne - Pick 12
Tom Mitchell - Pick 21 but as a F/S and they tend to drop lower (Ablett a classic example).

That's a lot of pick 1 draft picks in the same team, from that stat alone you would think we have had the success of Carlton.

For mine this list presents an example of Hawks targeting established talent fitting team needs vs going to the draft and picking best available. Fortunately the Club doesn't throw away their draft wish list and monitor the progress of players recruited by other clubs.


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[Roddy]

Talk about a slice off the right. Why he let the ball bounce I will never know...but always thank him for.

We would have had them in extra time, we kicked something like 4.8 to 1.1 in that last quarter. They were shot and we were running all over them...

 

[Mr Meeseeks]

Average age and average games played have no correlation to future performance, if anything its better to be older, statistically at least.

What I'd like to see is an average games played with your current teammates, say your best 25 and whether there's any correlation with performance.

I have no idea how you'd find that info nor do I have the time to work it all out but the Hawks would be down the bottom end I would think.

It would be interesting to see for sure.

Would you though? What would it tell you?

The focus that playing ages get on this site in particular is weird.

I have very rarely had the average age of a playing list come up in footy chat in the real world. Sometimes on BF its seems better to have a young list that might be good in 3 years than it does to have an older list that is decent now.

Hawthorn's 2015 premiership team was the oldest ever.

 

[matey]

In probably the most important area of the ground, at the end of 2016 Hawks had a core midfield group of Mitchell/Burgs/Lewis/Hodge that unpinned it’s success.

How do you replace this quickly. Will be honest worrying times ahead I thought.

Fast forward 3 years the Hawks have a core midfield group of Tom/JOM/Wingard/Worpel and tmrw hopefully will add another young quality mid and Finn. Can see the Hawks having a core group of mids that will compete well against the best for a number of years.

As a supporter very happy with the clubs drafting strategy since 2016 compared to using its first round selections in the lotto pool, hoping that kids will turn into quality players. Then what? They don’t come on ...... hello stuck in the bottom 4 which has been proven by many clubs that have gone hard with youth.

I am sure that the majority of oppo supporters think that Clarko/Wright have got it wrong and don’t see the optimism that Hawk fans see but only time will tell!

 

[Marcel Proust]

Not sure where that list is from because we've had 7. I tallied it up not long back.

i found it here actually - didnt claim it was up to date

List Mgmt. - Our 23 and under team

Apologies if this isn't worth its own thread, was just thinking about how much young talent we've somewhat quietly cultivated on our list in recent times. Get a load of this, plenty to be excited about, here's a team of our guys 23 and under! Brackets include (Age, draft pick). B: Derek...

www.bigfooty.com

So what that means s##t to me again.

Tigers 24 and under are not much chop. How many in this years B&F were in the Tigers top 6? ZERO.

Hawks 2019 B&F had 4 of its top 6 were 24 and under.

Richmond won the premiership and Hawthorn won the '2019 b/F results; 4 of its top 6 were 24 and under 'award'

so i guess both clubs are winners this year

Once Edwards, Cotchin, Jack, Rance, Houli and co start slowing down which is just around the corner .... the cliff is coming. This makes sense with the equalisation system in place and given the small number of elite draft picks Tigers have had at its disposal in recent times.

With the Hawks recent list transition from a three peat, they have bottomed out and will be on the way up again.

tbf Rance played 5 mins and Richmond won the flag

so in theory at least the tigers can cover him when the sad does comes he decides to move onto the next chapter?

 

[blaisee]

I think its cute how much hawks fans love Worpel

It reminds me of when I loved Nathan Foley .

 

[QuietB]

I think its cute how much hawks fans love Worpel

It reminds me of when I loved Nathan Foley .

In your defence you have had to love a lot of spuds over the years

 

[Furn2]

Would you though? What would it tell you?

The focus that playing ages get on this site in particular is weird.

I have very rarely had the average age of a playing list come up in footy chat in the real world. Sometimes on BF its seems better to have a young list that might be good in 3 years than it does to have an older list that is decent now.

Hawthorn's 2015 premiership team was the oldest ever.

Well, in modern footy with team defence and complicated gameplans etc, having players who know each others games and have played together a lot would be a big advantage in achieving the cohesion needed to be successful.

for example.

Here are Richmonds top 8 disposal getters in 2019

​	Bachar Houli​	22​	27.82​
2​	Dion Prestia​	25​	27.44​
3​	Dustin Martin​	23​	26.13​
4​	Shane Edwards​	24​	21.92​
5​	Kane Lambert​	21​	21.71​
6​	Brandon Ellis​	23​	21.09​
7​	Trent Cotchin​	14​	19.79​
8​	Nick Vlastuin​

and here are Hawthorn's

1​	James Worpel​	22​	26.55​
2​	Jaeger O'Meara​	21​	25.86​
3​	Ricky Henderson​	22​	24.59​
4​	Liam Shiels​	19​	23.21​
5​	Isaac Smith​	19​	22.47​
6​	James Sicily​	22​	21.09​
7​	Chad Wingard​	14​	18.50​
8​	Tom Scully​

Now both those groups are similarly mature age experienced players in general (Worps aside), but there is a huge differencein how much footy they've played together.


Other than Shiels and Smith none of the Hawks group would have played more than 30-40 games in the same side, while guys like Edwards, Cotchin, Martin, Lambert would have played 150 plus together.

It makes a big difference when you have that cohesion and that's where a lot of improvement may come from.

The risk of course is that in bringing in older players, you might not get that cohesion before some start to drop off with age.

I'd be willing to bet there's a correlation between games played together and performance, irrespective of the age of your group.

 

[blaisee]

In your defence you have had to love a lot of spuds over the years

True

And you have a heap of them now

 

[Marcel Proust]

Tom Scully - Pick 1
Jon Patton - Pick 1
Jaeger O'Meara - pick 1 Mini Draft
Chad Wingard - Pick 6
Jack Scrimshaw - Pick 7
Ben mCevoy - Pick 9
James Frawley - Pick 12
Shaun Burgoyne - Pick 12
Tom Mitchell - Pick 21 but as a F/S and they tend to drop lower (Ablett a classic example).

That's a lot of pick 1 draft picks in the same team, from that stat alone you would think we have had the success of Carlton.

recycled players is a bit different isnt it?

 

[Jobe Watson]

I'm sorry to say this but I really think Hawthorn are going to bottom out in 2020 and won't even get close to finals. Their list is quite awful at the moment.

 

[QuietB]

I'm sorry to say this but I really think Hawthorn are going to bottom out in 2020 and won't even get close to finals. Their list is quite awful at the moment.

You are projecting again

How is the bombers list coming along? Has an inside mid popped out of the ground somewhere?

 

[Gralin]

What exactly is the elite end of the draft? Top 5 picks? Top 10 picks? First round picks?
Are the Hawks actually ignoring the elite end? With all their success in recent years they didn't get top 10 draft picks so how is that ignoring the top end when you don't qualify for any due to their own success? Yes we traded away some first round draft picks but it was to get top end draft picks in just ones with established history and from that are we actually ignoring the top end of the draft?
We might not get players in their draft year but getting players from other clubs has been the only way we have been able to get elite draft picks in.
Consider this:
Tom Scully - Pick 1
Jon Patton - Pick 1
Jaeger O'Meara - pick 1 Mini Draft
Chad Wingard - Pick 6
Jack Scrimshaw - Pick 7
Ben mCevoy - Pick 9
James Frawley - Pick 12
Shaun Burgoyne - Pick 12
Tom Mitchell - Pick 21 but as a F/S and they tend to drop lower (Ablett a classic example).

That's a lot of pick 1 draft picks in the same team, from that stat alone you would think we have had the success of Carlton.

According to the OP it's picks within the top 40 which used to be the 3rd round but with academy and f/s could be late second round these days.

I always though it was top 10 but I'm looking forward to our club possibly using one pick in that range in the OP (we have #11 and then #42)

Such excitement

 

[matey]

recycled players is a bit different isnt it?

Burgs, Lake, Gibson, Guerra, Dew, Hale, Gunston, Spanger are recycled players that have got nice necklaces to wear occasionally for the rest of their lives.

 

[matey]

True

And you have a heap of them now

If the Hawks salute again in the next couple of years with a bunch of spuds surely clubs will change their drafting strategy. Forget about elite end draft picks ..... just draft spuds instead!

 

[cryptor]

I'm sorry to say this but I really think Hawthorn are going to bottom out in 2020 and won't even get close to finals. Their list is quite awful at the moment.

I’m sorry to read this. So much regret to be shared from your terrible opinion.

 

[Hawkk]

I think its cute how much hawks fans love Worpel

It reminds me of when I loved Nathan Foley .

I was thinking more Mark Coughlan

I remember all those North and Richmond nuffies making absolute arses of themselves in the Sam Mitchell v Daniel Harris v Mark Coughlan threads

 

[FisherHawk]

I'm sorry to say this but I really think Hawthorn are going to bottom out in 2020 and won't even get close to finals. Their list is quite awful at the moment.

Hilarious!

 

[blaisee]

If the Hawks salute again in the next couple of years with a bunch of spuds surely clubs will change their drafting strategy. Forget about elite end draft picks ..... just draft spuds instead!

That’s a very very big if

 

[QuietB]

That’s a very very big if

It is doable. The leading pack are nowhere near as dominant as the Geelong or Hawthorn premiership teams.

It is only a small step for anyone in the middle of the table to catch up.

 

[Hawk Dork]

Burgs, Lake, Gibson, Guerra, Dew, Hale, Gunston, Spanger are recycled players that have got nice necklaces to wear occasionally for the rest of their lives.

even Simpkin

 

[matey]

That’s a very very big if

Apologise typo mistake meant to say ‘when’ not ‘if’.

 

[threesixpio]

 

[threesixpio]

I think Clarko has a better claim on GOAT but Sheedy did it over three rebuilds.

80's cups, 1993 and 2000.

Three rebuilds is very impressive. If Clarko gets another one then GOAT is defo his mantle