List Mgmt. 2019 Draft Prospect Discussion

[Scodog10]

IIRC he's only sure about the first 11, because the player he has at 12 wasn't invited to the first night (yet)

That said Cockatoo got a last day call up.

Day? My two cents is that Twomey gets everything from speaking to the recruiters of other clubs about their feel on who’s going ahead of their pick rather than straight up asking who’s taking who he then works backwards from there. For instance you ask the Bulldogs and Port who’s off the board at their pick and they say Day then ask the Dees the same question and he’s still on the board you can whittle it down from there. Not being up there suggests to me that there’s zero interest in him going top 10.

Looking at your post with his draft and I’m crazy keen on GC’s current pick 20. With Schoenberg and Rantall both are chance to still be on the table that’s the pick I hope we target! Say 2020 1st and 35 for 20 and 2020 3rd or 4th (pending them still holding it).

 

[manicpie]

IIRC he's only sure about the first 11, because the player he has at 12 wasn't invited to the first night (yet)

That said Cockatoo got a last day call up.

So did Kangaroo and Koala

 

[BringouttheGimp]

Big day for the Gimp today re..

Off to training.. then the draft as a special guest. And in between all of that.. the equivalent of a slab re. Rounding off the night with my 100th and something Tinder date for the yr.

Wish me luck.

 

[Harry O]

Day? My two cents is that Twomey gets everything from speaking to the recruiters of other clubs about their feel on who’s going ahead of their pick rather than straight up asking who’s taking who he then works backwards from there. For instance you ask the Bulldogs and Port who’s off the board at their pick and they say Day then ask the Dees the same question and he’s still on the board you can whittle it down from there. Not being up there suggests to me that there’s zero interest in him going top 10.

Looking at your post with his draft and I’m crazy keen on GC’s current pick 20. With Schoenberg and Rantall both are chance to still be on the table that’s the pick I hope we target! Say 2020 1st and 35 for 20 and 2020 3rd or 4th (pending them still holding it).

Yes would consider that trade if there is someone we rate highly still on the table. Given GC already have heaps of picks in 2020 draft, not sure they would necessarily that keen to do the deal. They would probably prefer to take a ready made guy like Gould who can help them immediately
Apparently the Crows are open to trading one of their 2 picks in the early 20's for the right deal

 

[Johno9911]

Cal Twomey's "Late mail" top 30

Pick 1 – Gold Coast – Matt Rowell
Pick 2 – Gold Coast – Noah Anderson
Pick 3 – Melbourne – Luke Jackson
Pick 4 – Greater Western Sydney – Lachie Ash
Pick 5 – Sydney – Sam Flanders
Pick 6 – Adelaide – Fischer McAsey
Pick 7 – Fremantle – Hayden Young
Pick 8 – Fremantle – Caleb Serong
Pick 9 – Carlton – Dylan Stephens
Pick 10 – Greater Western Sydney (matching Melbourne's bid) – Tom Green
Pick 11 – Melbourne – Kysaiah Pickett
Pick 12 – Hawthorn – Will Day
Pick 13 – Port Adelaide – Miles Bergman
Pick 14 – Western Bulldogs – Cody Weightman
Pick 15 – Geelong – Deven Robertson
Pick 16 – Gold Coast – Brodie Kemp
Pick 17 – Port Adelaide – Sam De Koning
Pick 18 – Fremantle (matching Geelong's bid) – Liam Henry
Pick 19 – Geelong – Josh Worrell
Pick 20 – Port Adelaide – Harrison Jones
Pick 21 – Richmond – Cooper Stephens
Pick 22 – Gold Coast – Will Gould
Pick 23 – Brisbane – Trent Rivers
Pick 24 – Adelaide – Jay Rantall
Pick 25 – Adelaide – Harry Schoenberg
Pick 26 – Hawthorn (matching Geelong's bid) – Finn Maginness
Pick 27 – Geelong – Trent Bianco
Pick 28 – Sydney – Elijah Taylor
Pick 29 – North Melbourne – Hugo Ralphsmith
Pick 30 – North Melbourne – Charlie Comben

Looking at that I’ll be happy if Jeremy Sharp keep sliding. Quick outside mid who uses it well, wouldn’t be the worst fit for us

 

[Nuwanda]

Good work Dave. You're on to something that many don't seem to get. With the draft, every team has a different top 20. You could slip to pick 39, even if every single club rated you in the top 20.

I can understand this to a certain extent howeverI would have thought ‘best available player’ would come in earlier than pick 40. Did the Pies take Grundy because he was highly rated top 10 but still on the board?
Clubs may have had Murphy on their list but obviously no higher than their 3rd selection. There were 39 selected ahead of him. May have been more if we didn’t take him. Talking about his as a pick 6 ‘slipping’ to 40 is questionable.

 

[Snoop Dog]

Great write up Snoop as always. I just spent a very enjoyable hour reading through it all and it gives a great insight. Really appreciate the effort you go to.

It's interesting you have us taking Georgiades and Riccardi, two key forwards. I reckon they're both great prospects. I like Riccardi's aggression and swagger a lot because I think you need it for the role. Georgiades could be a great pick especially if adds a few cm as often happens. Jeka who we've been linked to concerns me a little because from what I read he lacks what Riccardi has, that aggression (is that a fair concern?). I don't think it's easy to make it as a key forward in the AFL without it.

I do struggle with the idea of us taking too many more key positions though just purely because I don't see how we fit them in and develop them properly. I reckon if we draft a kid we have a duty to be able to back it up by giving him the best environment to develop. We currently have a VFL side that will have Lynch, Cameron, Reid, Wilson, Kelly, Keane, Tohill and Madgen. It's hard to fit those guys in their best positions for development, before we consider adding another couple. Perhaps the club will be okay with that with an eye on Reid, Tohill and Madgen end of next year.

Appreciate that.

I took 2 because I actually dont have much faith in Cox and he is 28 and Mihocek is 26. Beyond that we have no prospects for that section of the ground whereas we have plenty of cover in other areas. Equally I think they are different styles of players so I would get them both. Also think has to be done in this draft bc doubt we will get access to one next year unless we can via FA.

Re Jeka - I would be ok with us taking him but the mail on him is the intensity levels are not where they need to be. When I watched him last year I would have taken him there and then but something has happened this year and he just doesnt have that same look about him. Who knows what could have happened to I would back Club as they have done their homework. I could probably find out if wanted to. Lets see if we take him.

Re your last point - watched a lot of Cameron. He aint a forward and besides Wilson I dont really rate the rest.

 

[Quicky]

Appreciate that.

I took 2 because I actually dont have much faith in Cox and he is 28 and Mihocek is 26. Beyond that we have no prospects for that section of the ground whereas we have plenty of cover in other areas. Equally I think they are different styles of players so I would get them both. Also think has to be done in this draft bc doubt we will get access to one next year unless we can via FA.

Re Jeka - I would be ok with us taking him but the mail on him is the intensity levels are not where they need to be. When I watched him last year I would have taken him there and then but something has happened this year and he just doesnt have that same look about him. Who knows what could have happened to I would back Club as they have done their homework. I could probably find out if wanted to. Lets see if we take him.

Re your last point - watched a lot of Cameron. He aint a forward and besides Wilson I dont really rate the rest.

I'm with you on your assessment of our developing key forwards. It's why I want us to pick Riccardi. Wilson and Riccardi would give us something to work with moving forward. Riccardi is well positioned with his development. I do question our list management with our key positions. I'm surprised we didn't delist Reid. And when we got Cameron I thought Lynch was in trouble. I like us getting Cameron but more as a Cox/Grundy break glass type. Tohill might be key position height but doesn't play much like one. So I thought there was room to move a few on, get more likely types, and be positioned to develop them properly.

 

[Jen2310]

On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Apex36]

Good work Dave. You're on to something that many don't seem to get. With the draft, every team has a different top 20. You could slip to pick 39, even if every single club rated you in the top 20.

No idea why that’s so hard for people to understand

 

[partypie]

What would be a bigger spanner in the works? Melbourne taking Lachie Ash or Melbourne bidding on Green?

The latter obviously as they wont effectively get two picks inside the top 5 then.

Personally I don't think anybody else inside the top 10 is interested in taking an undersized ruckman in that range, no matter how good he might look at ground level and around the ground in general, so they might still get him at 10/11 if they want him anyway.

 

[Snoop Dog]

I'm with you on your assessment of our developing key forwards. It's why I want us to pick Riccardi. Wilson and Riccardi would give us something to work with moving forward. Riccardi is well positioned with his development. I do question our list management with our key positions. I'm surprised we didn't delist Reid. And when we got Cameron I thought Lynch was in trouble. I like us getting Cameron but more as a Cox/Grundy break glass type. Tohill might be key position height but doesn't play much like one. So I thought there was room to move a few on, get more likely types, and be positioned to develop them properly.

Completely agree.

 

[jackcass]

Agree. I would do a future first alone for 22 at worst. But only if we rated the player available somewhere from 10-16.

Only reason you'd throw in a 35 or 48 with the future first is if you were trying to swoop in to a pick 15 or lower.

Something like 20 of the top 40 2020 predicted draft picks are already tied to clubs via FS & NGA. More than a few very highly rated. The problem with the 2020 picks on offer is that you can't predict how far they'll slide once all the bidding & matching takes place, especially for picks not predicted to be at the pointy end. We win the GF and it's not inconceivable that our nominal pick 18 could end up being a pick in the mid 20's. I think that's why premiums are being paid.

 

[sr36]

I can understand this to a certain extent howeverI would have thought ‘best available player’ would come in earlier than pick 40. Did the Pies take Grundy because he was highly rated top 10 but still on the board?
Clubs may have had Murphy on their list but obviously no higher than their 3rd selection. There were 39 selected ahead of him. May have been more if we didn’t take him. Talking about his as a pick 6 ‘slipping’ to 40 is questionable.

When Hine talks about best available player, hes not talking about a list based on bigfooty or media consensus. He's talking about Collingwoods draft wish list. We took Grundy because he was the highest remaining player on the Collingwood wish list. We took Stepho for the same reason. The question is how many names were between Stepho and Murphy? The rumour is not many, if any. Him being invited to the top 10 hoopla supports that rumour. We'll never be sure where Hine rated him, but him going at 39 is irrelevant to Hines ratings. I personally believe the rumour. It was all the talk pre and post draft and is supported by an invitation.

It really is irrelevant anyway. Regardless of the aura that is attached to top 10 pick, Murphy would be the same player whether he went a 6 or 39.

 

[LarryKinn]

Nick Daicos, though that's in 2 years.

thought Reef was supposed to project as an inside mid for next year, while Sier and Wills have this year to separate themselves. with Beams hopefully reasdy

 

[unplugged]

Just did a quick test run on my draft board against the top 30 on Cal Twomey's "late mail" phantom.

I have cut it off after North's pick of Comben at 30 (ranked 45).



I think based on this GCS, Fremantle and GWS are big winners.

GCS get Kemp at 16 when ranked 8.
GCS get Gould at 22 when ranked 14.

Fremantle get Young and Serong at 7 and 8 when ranked 4 and 5.

GWS get Green at 10 when ranked 3.

Also jealous of Geelong getting both Worrell and Bianco. Not necessarily getting a bargain (based on the above logic) but just because I'm a fan of both. Would gladly recruit one of them let alone both of them.

 

[partypie]

Appreciate that.

I took 2 because I actually dont have much faith in Cox and he is 28 and Mihocek is 26. Beyond that we have no prospects for that section of the ground whereas we have plenty of cover in other areas. Equally I think they are different styles of players so I would get them both. Also think has to be done in this draft bc doubt we will get access to one next year unless we can via FA.

Re Jeka - I would be ok with us taking him but the mail on him is the intensity levels are not where they need to be. When I watched him last year I would have taken him there and then but something has happened this year and he just doesnt have that same look about him. Who knows what could have happened to I would back Club as they have done their homework. I could probably find out if wanted to. Lets see if we take him.

Re your last point - watched a lot of Cameron. He aint a forward and besides Wilson I dont really rate the rest.

Didn't Jeka have a significant knee injury early in the year and only played a handful of games towards the end of the season?

 

[Snoop Dog]

Didn't Jeka have a significant knee injury early in the year and only played a handful of games towards the end of the season?

nah had a few games early / did knee around April and then was back in June 'ish. Think he played 10-12 for the year.

 

[Crazy Tails]

Crows have 22 and 23. Reckon one of those may be gettable after listening to Hamish Ogilvy on road to the draft podcast. He also said they have 4 future 4th rounders for next year too.

I wonder if they’d trade out 23 and a future 4th for our future first. Gives us a chance to land a target in the mid 20s and gets us another pick for next year for McInnes points.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[partypie]

nah had a few games early / did knee around April and then was back in June 'ish. Think he played 10-12 for the year.

Hmm a couple of months out for something that seemed serious at the time and was then written off as innocuous initially (only to keep him out for an extended period) might have knocked his confidence around a bit.

I can see he made it back for the last couple of games or the carnival even though he wasn't fully fit and looked ok.

Also played 4 games in defence and looked ok there too apparently.

Didn't really take a game by the scruff at any point this year (missing two months wouldn't have helped there in terms of building form as the season progressed), but has he flashed enough potential with his mobility, marking and a bit of positional flexibility to at least consider late?

 

[nahnah]

Extremely plausible given LDU will be the Toumpas of that draft!

Bit harsh, I think he will be better and last longer than Toumpas.. maybe more along the lines of Gary Rohan

 

[CFC2010]

 

[swoop42]

Remember it cost GWS a 2020 1st round selection to just move from pick 6 to pick 4.

We need to be realistic.

What I suggest below is probably the best we can reasonably expect and even then I'm not confident.

Collingwood 2020 1st round, pick 35 for Adelaide's pick 23 & 45.

 

[BringouttheGimp]

If we don't pick up Georgiades in the draft.. I f swear man.. I'll climb halfway up a f light pole like the Thomo ninja.. and start screaming out obscenities to passing by motorists.. 'hey look at me man.. I've been hit hard at the f bowser mate'. F this.

I'm f fed up with this shit man.. I've f had it.

 

[partypie]

Remember it cost GWS a 2020 1st round selection to just move from pick 6 to pick 4.

We need to be realistic.

What I suggest below is probably the best we can reasonably expect and even then I'm not confident.

Collingwood 2020 1st round, pick 35 for Adelaide's pick 23 & 45.

It cost GWS a 2020 first round pick to guarantee two top 5 picks in this draft - it was a very situational trade where Adelaide held all the cards and GWS didn't care about perceived value, as they're still getting two top talents in this year's draft, after being beaten grand finalists.

If Adelaide want to jettison pick 23 then our first rounder for 23 and either a 2020 pick swap or one of their late round 2020 picks (eg. gold coast's 4th rounder) should get it done. This would give them an extremely strong hand in the 2020 draft with 3 x 1st round, 2 x second round and 2 x 3rd round picks in hand before trade period even begins.