Mega Thread Coronavirus & the AFL - Stage 4 Restrictions in Place in Vic - Part 3

[Gralin]

This is part Three.

Part One can be found here -

Mega Thread - Coronavirus & the AFL - season postponed. (Thread part 1 - cont in part 2, link in thread)

This is part 1 of this thread. Continued in Part 2: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/coronavirus-the-afl-season-postponed-part-2.1237935/

www.bigfooty.com

Part Two can be found here -

Mega Thread - Coronavirus & the AFL - season postponed. Part 2 * CONTINUED ABUSE WILL NOT BE TOLERATED *

https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/pages/covid-stats-australia/

www.bigfooty.com

Part 4 can be found here:

Mega Thread - Coronavirus & the AFL - Stage 4 Restrictions in Place in Vic - Part 4

This is part Four. Part One can be found here - https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/coronavirus-the-afl-season-postponed.1236651/unread Part Two can be found here -...

www.bigfooty.com

Australian stats page:

Australian Coronavirus Stats

Latest COVID-19 stats from Australia.

www.bigfooty.com

 

[Thrawn]

First line of The Guardian Article:

German Covid-19 cases 'may be 10 times higher than official figures'

Researchers highlight risk of asymptomatic infection, as Europe begins easing lockdown

www.theguardian.com

"More than 10 times as many people in Germany as thought may have been infected with coronavirus"

First line of the Sydney Morning Herald article:

Official COVID-19 figures underestimate spread by 'order of magnitude'

A senior epidemiologist says official government modelling underestimates the true spread of COVID-19 in Australia.

www.smh.com.au

"The true number of people infected with COVID-19 in Australia is likely to be much higher than the official government tally, experts say, with one estimate putting the figure as high as 30,000."


Because all Scientific conclusions use terms like "may" and "likely"

But keep trying to prove that your irrational hatred towards the protest isn't because you don't agree with the agenda of the protest rather than the 'risk' that is presented.

Haha, did you just nitpick words just to discredit my evidence to you?

Well, yes, they do. All the time. Especially if the information at hand is limited. What do you think the study of epidemiology actually does? They're not just making these estimates out of thin air - there are rational, scientific reasons behind them. You just don't like them because they don't line up with your argument about the protest vs schools.

And now you're just denying reality, and pivoting to some ridiculous "agenda" argument. As I said, this stuff seems to be way over your head. Please come back when you understand the fundamentals of epidemiology.

 

[Thrawn]

‘agreed it was ill advised to protest march. We didn’t really know the risk. But the outcome was that even with thousands in a relatively small area. The transmission simply didn’t happen. An actual case not a theory. The theory suggests it would be bad. It wasn’t in this case. This is how we gain knowledge and progress

everyone is saying that. People with no motivation to ‘cover up’

You can't give a stone-clad guarantee on that, though, which is sorta the point.

 

[Tiger Toffee]

I'm aware of that as it's Victorian School Holidays---doesn't change the fact that 10 schools have been deep cleaned due to connections with cases in the past 3 days. The School holidays have come at a fortunate time for Victoria as there have been more cases connected to schools (with staff & students being at school last week) than at any stage in the pandemic so far.

Deep clean haha funny, some spray and wipe on the tables, a spray of windex on the windows, a quick vacuum and a mop and job done.

They'll be right, feet up on the couch probably thinking " gee I've felt worse " and come July 13 back into it.

 

[Senor M]

Haha, did you just nitpick words just to discredit my evidence to you?

Well, yes, they do. All the time. Especially if the information at hand is limited. What do you think the study of epidemiology actually does? They're not just making these estimates out of thin air - there are rational, scientific reasons behind them. You just don't like them because they don't line up with your argument about the protest vs schools.

And now you're just denying reality, and pivoting to some ridiculous "agenda" argument. As I said, this stuff seems to be way over your head. Please come back when you understand the fundamentals of epidemiology.

So why do your understanding of the fundamental os epidemiology not align with the view of the Victorian CHO? If Brett Sutton believed that the spike of COVID cases was connected to BLM protests-- wouldn't the current recommendation be that everyone who went to the protest get tested? Or official advice from the CHO back at the start of June for anyone that attended to complete a 14-day self isolation (rather than just it being a sentiment by organisers).

The current restrictions are in place because of other failures within the system (associated with family gatherings, community relaxing due to students being back at school and the incompetence of a group of security guards). Yet somehow tonight a bunch of people want to blame the protestors.

 

[Senor M]

Deep clean haha funny, some spray and wipe on the tables, a spray of windex on the windows, a quick vacuum and a mop and job done.

They'll be right, feet up on the couch probably thinking " gee I've felt worse " and come July 13 back into it.

But it does show that School Teachers & Students have been getting this disease (at a much higher rate than the BLM protestors). Yet somehow its "da Protestors fault".

I'm just suggesting let's place the blame on this 10 Postcode shut down on the people they actually caused it (incompetent security and families who became lax about family gatherings because their kids are back at school)

 

[Crankitup]

But let's blame ONE event that's had 3 confirmed cases rather than look at where the other approx. 400 cases came from?

Why is it that the protests have to have cases 'confirmed' to have them attributed to it but the other sources can have suspected cases attributed to them before confirmation.

It seems as though if there is some other source that can be blamed, that will become front and centre whilst the fact the patient had attended the BLM protest gets pushed aside. 4 cases have been linked to H & M Northland for instance; staff members and household contacts of staff members. One of the staff members attended the BLM, but because they are "not thought to have acquired the infection from the protest" none of the H&M cases are attributed to the protest. In reality if they did acquire the infection at the protest, then they could easily have caused the other three infections. Who are the leftwaffe bureaucrats making these decisions?

 

[Les Malone]

Deep clean haha funny, some spray and wipe on the tables, a spray of windex on the windows, a quick vacuum and a mop and job done.

They'll be right, feet up on the couch probably thinking " gee I've felt worse " and come July 13 back into it.

this



or this

 

[Tiger Toffee]

this

View attachment 903643

or this


View attachment 903644

That dude in the white raincoat must be thinking, this is so overboard. I have touched every surface around, touched my face, rubbed my eyes etc

Result: not sick once.

 

[Clems Knee]

So is Brett Sutton wrong?
He said that the BLM protests weren’t the cause of the spike in cases. Are posters accusing him of having an agenda, or lying? That’s conspiracy level stuff.

Apparently a significant proportion of the cases is related to the security guards at hotels. The differences in the viral RNA can be used to trace the origins of the viral infections.

Surely if the CMO is trying to limit this infection, he would try to track the origins of the virus using the evidence available to him, then act on it. If the BLM protest was significant, the whole of Victoria would be shut down tomorrow, not just a few suburbs.

 

[Thrawn]

So why do your understanding of the fundamental os epidemiology not align with the view of the Victorian CHO? If Brett Sutton believed that the spike of COVID cases was connected to BLM protests-- wouldn't the current recommendation be that everyone who went to the protest get tested? Or official advice from the CHO back at the start of June for anyone that attended to complete a 14-day self isolation (rather than just it being a sentiment by organisers).

The current restrictions are in place because of other failures within the system (associated with family gatherings, community relaxing due to students being back at school and the incompetence of a group of security guards). Yet somehow tonight a bunch of people want to blame the protestors.

Funny that, I never knew the Victorian CHO said that the official number is the "true" number of infected people.

There's a reason he wouldn't say that - because it's a politically charged statement. People like you are going to point at him and accuse him of having an agenda. But lets be honest here; he ****ed up with the Cedar meats debacle and prematurely made the recommendation to open up things a little too early. Then there's the matter of testing 10,000 people in a short time, getting them to comply, testing people who they've contacted, etc. You can see now how it's a logistical nightmare and why we don't test every single person, which is why the actual case tally is much much higher in reality. Your thought process might not necessarily align with his own, there's a lot of things these people of authority did to make things worse. Take Fauci from the US as an example, who was on record saying this about face masks:


You mention failures of the system, allowing that protest to happen in the first place was just another one of those. The reason people egg on against those protesters is because they all knew we're in the middle of a one-in-a-hundred year event that has caused so much death and economic disaster, they didn't have to go to risk spreading all that further. Yet they did. That level of selfishness should be criticised. School kids on the other hand, well, they don't really have a choice do they? Yet to see how saying any of this is political in any way; a virus doesn't care about your petty political games.

 

[Senor M]

So is Brett Sutton wrong?
He said that the BLM protests weren’t the cause of the spike in cases. Are posters accusing him of having an agenda, or lying? That’s conspiracy level stuff.

Apparently a significant proportion of the cases is related to the security guards at hotels. The differences in the viral RNA can be used to trace the origins of the viral infections.

Surely if the CMO is trying to limit this infection, he would try to track the origins of the virus using the evidence available to him, then act on it. If the BLM protest was significant, the whole of Victoria would be shut down tomorrow, not just a few suburbs.

Why is it that the protests have to have cases 'confirmed' to have them attributed to it but the other sources can have suspected cases attributed to them before confirmation.

It seems as though if there is some other source that can be blamed, that will become front and centre whilst the fact the patient had attended the BLM protest gets pushed aside. 4 cases have been linked to H & M Northland for instance; staff members and household contacts of staff members. One of the staff members attended the BLM, but because they are "not thought to have acquired the infection from the protest" none of the H&M cases are attributed to the protest. In reality if they did acquire the infection at the protest, then they could easily have caused the other three infections. Who are the leftwaffe bureaucrats making these decisions?

Apparently he's a left waffle bureaucrat?

Even if he is--- I'd still trust Brett Sutton more than the ranting of a view people on BigFooty who are blowing the BLM Protest infections out of proportion. Especially when some of them don't even realise that the H&M cluster transmission was able to be traced back to an earlier infection (before the BLM protest).

 

[Les Malone]

Apparently he's a left waffle bureaucrat?

Even if he is--- I'd still trust Brett Sutton more than the ranting of a view people on BigFooty who are blowing the BLM Protest infections out of proportion. Especially when some of them don't even realise that the H&M cluster transmission was able to be traced back to an earlier infection (before the BLM protest).

why are you so upset about the BLM protest ?.

 

[Thrawn]

So is Brett Sutton wrong?
He said that the BLM protests weren’t the cause of the spike in cases. Are posters accusing him of having an agenda, or lying? That’s conspiracy level stuff.

Apparently a significant proportion of the cases is related to the security guards at hotels. The differences in the viral RNA can be used to trace the origins of the viral infections.

Surely if the CMO is trying to limit this infection, he would try to track the origins of the virus using the evidence available to him, then act on it. If the BLM protest was significant, the whole of Victoria would be shut down tomorrow, not just a few suburbs.

He's certainly not infallible. Not a conspiracy to say people in power * things up.

To be honest, we don't have much of an idea how many people are infected as it is. You can only test so many people.

At this rate we're gonna be shutting down significantly anyway.

 

[Crankitup]

So is Brett Sutton wrong?
He said that the BLM protests weren’t the cause of the spike in cases. Are posters accusing him of having an agenda, or lying? That’s conspiracy level stuff.

Apparently a significant proportion of the cases is related to the security guards at hotels. The differences in the viral RNA can be used to trace the origins of the viral infections.

Surely if the CMO is trying to limit this infection, he would try to track the origins of the virus using the evidence available to him, then act on it. If the BLM protest was significant, the whole of Victoria would be shut down tomorrow, not just a few suburbs.

He's relying on what the Department tells him. It's the Leftwaffe clique in the Department I'm concerned about.

 

[Senor M]

Funny that, I never knew the Victorian CHO said that the official number is the "true" number of infected people.

There's a reason he wouldn't say that - because it's a politically charged statement. People like you are going to point at him and accuse him of having an agenda. But lets be honest here; he f’ed up with the Cedar meats debacle and prematurely made the recommendation to open up things a little too early. Then there's the matter of testing 10,000 people in a short time, getting them to comply, testing people who they've contacted, etc. You can see now how it's a logistical nightmare and why we don't test every single person, which is why the actual case tally is much much higher in reality. Your thought process might not necessarily align with his own, there's a lot of things these people of authority did to make things worse. Take Fauci from the US as an example, who was on record saying this about face masks:


You mention failures of the system, allowing that protest to happen in the first place was just another one of those. The reason people egg on against those protesters is because they all knew we're in the middle of a one-in-a-hundred year event that has caused so much death and economic disaster, they didn't have to go to risk spreading all that further. Yet they did. That level of selfishness should be criticised. School kids on the other hand, well, they don't really have a choice do they? Yet to see how saying any of this is political in any way; a virus doesn't care about your petty political games.

Huh? Why are you linking a YouTube video to Dr. Fauci?

I feel that you've now lost any sense of rationale response and just going to focus on random facts to try to rationalise the anger you're incorrectly directing towards the protests, which is either politically biased or you're just too foolish to see what's really going on in Victoria beyond the Facebook memes & Sky News ramblings.

 

[Thrawn]

Apparently he's a left waffle bureaucrat?

Even if he is--- I'd still trust Brett Sutton more than the ranting of a view people on BigFooty who are blowing the BLM Protest infections out of proportion. Especially when some of them don't even realise that the H&M cluster transmission was able to be traced back to an earlier infection (before the BLM protest).

Just remember - it only required one person to turn a local virus in China into a full-blown pandemic. Nothing's being blown out of proportion.

 

[Crankitup]

Apparently he's a left waffle bureaucrat?

LOL. No. I said Leftwaffe. It's a play on words referencing Luftwaffe.

I was referring to Departmental bureaucrats not the Minister.

 

[Clems Knee]

Why is it that the protests have to have cases 'confirmed' to have them attributed to it but the other sources can have suspected cases attributed to them before confirmation.

It seems as though if there is some other source that can be blamed, that will become front and centre whilst the fact the patient had attended the BLM protest gets pushed aside. 4 cases have been linked to H & M Northland for instance; staff members and household contacts of staff members. One of the staff members attended the BLM, but because they are "not thought to have acquired the infection from the protest" none of the H&M cases are attributed to the protest. In reality if they did acquire the infection at the protest, then they could easily have caused the other three infections. Who are the leftwaffe bureaucrats making these decisions?

Leftwaffe? I guess that’s a dog whistle to the people who like extreme right organisations. Luftwaffe. See? So witty.

When you get a stark raving mad conspiracy theorist liking your post, you know your dog whistling works.

 

[Thrawn]

Huh? Why are you linking a YouTube video to Dr. Fauci?

I feel that you've now lost any sense of rationale response and just going to focus on random facts to try to rationalise the anger you're incorrectly directing towards the protests, which is either politically biased or you're just too foolish to see what's really going on in Victoria beyond the Facebook memes & Sky News ramblings.

It's to demonstrate that chief medical officers can be wrong.

People's anger with the protests is justified; they're doing it in the middle of a pandemic and putting the health of people at risk. Why have restrictions otherwise?

PS. I don't use Facebook and watch Sky, and if you knew anything about me, I'm not even close to conservative lol. Why does everything "have" to have a political bias? Good god... the science doesn't give a s**t about that stuff.

 

[Senor M]

why are you so upset about the BLM protest ?.

Because posts like the one below are incorrectly claiming that the BLM Protest is the cause for Victoria's COVID spike & the new Postcode lockdowns.

Just remember - it only required one person to turn a local virus in China into a full-blown pandemic. Nothing's being blown out of proportion.

So are you going to whinge as much about the reasons of the other 400 new infections in Victoria? Or just 3 because you don't like what they did?

 

[Senor M]

View attachment 903650

LOL. No. I said Leftwaffe. It's a play on words referencing Luftwaffe.

I was referring to Departmental bureaucrats not the Minister.

So this is what happens when there's panic buying & the tin foil brigade can't buy enough foil for their hats?

If you don't believe the data--- that's fine, but maybe you might want to go back into lockdown. If the Victorian CHO data can't be trusted, I'm not sure if you can trust the Western Australian CHO either?

 

[Crankitup]

Leftwaffe? I guess that’s a dog whistle to the people who like extreme right organisations. Luftwaffe. See? So witty.

When you get a stark raving mad conspiracy theorist liking your post, you know your dog whistling works.

Why are you so triggered about this? it's not like you haven't used some choice descriptive terminology in the past to describe your ideological opponents.

 

[Thrawn]

So are you going to whinge as much about the reasons of the other 400 new infections in Victoria? Or just 3 because you don't like what they did?

Relevance? Why do I have to "whinge" more about something else to make a point here? The point was that the protests were stupid because of the timing, to suggest that it had no influence is laughable. Were it done at a time where we weren't suffering a global pandemic I'd be 100% behind it.

You keep on citing "3" like it's some kind of set-in-stone number. Fact is, you don't know how many people had the virus there and neither does the government or Sutton. Epidemiology is a science of of estimation. Learn to embrace it and accept the fact that it's more likely you'll catch something from a group of 10k people in the middle of a pandemic, than in a high school with several hundred kids spread apart.

 

[Ron The Bear]

So is Brett Sutton wrong?

Not sure. He also said testing NNNNNPNN was "not unusual at the tailend of an infection".

Anyway hopefully they can put the genie back in the bottle. Some pretty rough areas among those ordered to lock down for a month. Good luck getting compliance.

 

[Thrawn]

If you don't believe the data--- that's fine, but maybe you might want to go back into lockdown. If the Victorian CHO data can't be trusted, I'm not sure if you can trust the Western Australian CHO either?

The data doesn't show the full story, because no matter how much you ramp testing, you cannot test the majority of the population. The best we can do are educated guesses.

Just watch, those numbers will keep steady to the point where Andrews will have no choice but to lockdown again. Was always going to be inevitable with a 2nd wave.

Hey, at least we're not the US... who are still on the first wave.