AFL 2020 - AFL Round 16 (no aftertiming allowed)

[balmainforever]

 

[mookieb]

Yet another wonderful round of compressed schedule games.

3u WB +9.5, 0.5u WB 40+ ($21). 4th qtr bets and 4th qtr margins to come.

WB with the bye coming off a loss vs WC with a 5 day break. With no Shuey or Gaff their midfield starts to lack grunt and depth. They looked tired against Ess and their a poor 4th qtr to begin with.

Bit of a free roll here on the line. I think it shortens regardless but McGovern is in doubt and there's a good chance that other players get managed (Nic Nat?).

I think WB should be favs here and think if they are on then a chance they steamroll a tired / injury depleted WC hence WB 40+.

2u StK -18.5. Dire straits for Hawks here coming off a terrible loss. Good chance they blood some youngsters in this game.

2u GWS -15.5. I love backing against terrible teams getting a win late in the season. Excellent chance they'll be flat.

They're are alot of games with teams off a bye facing teams off a 5 day break. Likely to be a massive advantage.

 

[FadingTheFave]

2u - WBD +8.5/SYD H2H @4.67

Think Bulldogs will push the Eagles with extra rest and a finals spot still up for grabs although Wood and Vandermeer are losses. Sydney should be favourite after comfortably beating a finals contender while Carlton will likely have a let down now they are no longer in contention.

 

[TheRoosterGuy]

Bet deluxe have a Dixon to kick 3 goal and port Adelaide to win special for $5 (Max $50).

Dixon to kick 3 itself is
$2.10 at sports
$2.20 at tab
$2.35 at lads.

Not the greatest bookie but enough to make me sign up. Expecting a mauling from Port and Dixon.

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

The scores of the last 5 games are depressing. I don’t know how anyone can bet on goal scorers especially to kick 3.

 

[GROTTO]

The scores of the last 5 games are depressing. I don’t know how anyone can bet on goal scorers especially to kick 3.

+1

Kicking 3 goals in Corona 2020* is really like the olds days of a bag of 10 from the 2000s.

Im not even sure thats even an exaggeration either.

Probably the most depressing moment for me, when the penny dropped was when Rankine was show ponying and running into an open goal and hit the post against the Blues a couple rounds back.

FFS kicking a goal is like diamonds and Rankine has a lazy arrogant shot at goal.

 

[langdon19]

The scores of the last 5 games are depressing. I don’t know how anyone can bet on goal scorers especially to kick 3.

The drop in scoring is off the charts. Even when you factor in the short quarters and correct for that. It’s not just the shortened quarters, the scoring is down down down on previous seasons.

 

[HTPunter]

The drop in scoring is off the charts. Even when you factor in the short quarters and correct for that. It’s not just the shortened quarters, the scoring is down down down on previous seasons.

Yep seems so many games are decided by a 50/60ish winning score, no way an extra 4 minutes a quarter changes that dramatically.

 

[GROTTO]

Yep seems so many games are decided by a 50/60ish winning score, no way an extra 4 minutes a quarter changes that dramatically.

The 4 minutes would allow more opportunities for junk time goals, however the bigger problem though is that players cannot kick to save their lives.

I just cannot understand how players are regularly shanking kicks, where it goes literally out of bounds.

 

[Ah12]

Mason wood 2 or more
Xavier duursma 15+
$15.50 Power played on SB

He hasnt kicked many this year but kicked 2.1 last week. I also like Aaron Hall or Jack Zieball for 2 or more both $7.50.

I expect this to be a free flowing game and port to have a lot of the ball. Duursma had 20 last week and i expect him to be good for 15 ($1.91) SB.

 

[HTPunter]

Sam Gray had a fantastic 3 year run against us where he kicked 4 goals in 3 games consecutively while also averaging about 24 touches against us too.

I wonder who will get his fill in today. While I agree with the above about betting on multiple goalscorers, I still think it's a likely match for a few goals (Ports way).

Rozee might play a similar high forward game as Gray did v North in those games, or Robbie Gray. Either could get hold of the North defence quite easily. North have had 4 kicked on them by Sexton and Miers, Wingard kicked 3, Aarts kicked 2.3,Wallis kicked 2,

Rozee 2G ($5), 3G ($19), 4G ($81) - SB
Gray 2G ($2.88), 3G ($8), 4G ($26) - SB

 

[Bazza97]

Forgot that today's game was the start of round 16

Bets for today

SGM Dixon 2+, Gray AGS & Marshall AGS $3 SB
Marshall 2+ $2.75 NEDS
Rozee AGS $1.85 TAB
Rozee 2+ $5 SB
Farrell AGS $1.75 TAB
Zurhaar AGS $1.70 TAB
Zurhaar 2+ $4.25 TAB
Hall AGS $2.40 TAB
Hosie AGS $2.50 TAB
Hosie 2+ $9 SB

 

[Bazza97]

Yeah I'm big on Rozee for goals today. He's one of those players who I think will lift their scoring output before the finals. Kicked 29 goals last year out of 22 games but only kicked 5 goals out of 11 games this year. Think he's got a good opportunity today to hit the scoreboard against a team near the bottom of the ladder.

 

[TryAnHit]

People seem to forget that all games are now in QLD with high humidity at night.
Games up there have always been of lowering scoring as a dry ball gets wet so fast

 

[langdon19]

Thought the humidity was worse in Qld early in the season
Been plenty of high scoring games at the Gabba in the past

 

[tangolikelama]

$15 on Rozee @81 4+

 

[md20]

Also tired of the low scoring so might have a shot at Most Goals instead of trying to pick 2+, 3+, 4+ goals etc.
1 goal these days is a good chance of a player winning Most Goals..

Looking at having a go at
R. Gray Most Goals $9 (SB)

Only $5.50 on Lads. .
Mid sized forwards seem to hit the score board against North.
Notable ones are:
A. Sexton 4.0 (Most goals)
G. Miers 4.0 (Most goals)
S. McAdam 2.2
D. Cuningham 2.2, M. Kennedy 2.1, J. Newnes 2.0
J. Aarts 2.3, D. Martin 2.0 (Most goals)
D. Zaharakis 3.2 (Most Goals)

Was also looking at Z. Butters $15 may also be worth a shot, but reading through this thread I am also interested in C. Rozee $18.

Can anyone tell me what the go is with Most Goals if multiple players kick the same total?
Do behinds come into it?

On SM-G965F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[md20]

Double post. My bad

SGM $140
L. Mcdonald Most Disposals
C. Rozee Most Goals
T. Rockliff 20+

Worth losing $5 on

On SM-G965F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[tangolikelama]

Really wish SB had a goal scorers market for Polec. Would put my house on him for AGS

 

[Bazza97]

Chucked a bonus bet on Rozee 2+, Gray AGS & Marshall AGS $10.25 SB

Also in case Rozee doesn’t get 2+, got on Rozee AGS, Gray AGS & Marshall $3.60 boosted to $3.85 SB

 

[BloodRet]

No games this arvo how flipping boring

 

[BloodRet]

Larkey 3
Marshall 2
Zurhaar
@45 sb boosted

 

[tangolikelama]

Gray 20+
McDonald 20+
DBJ 15+
Powell Pepper 15+
Larkey AGS
Wood AGS
Rozee AGS
Marshall AGS

@54

 

[mouncey2franklin]

Amon has kicked a goal in 2 from his last 4 (one of the matches he went goalless he kicked 0.2) and kicked 2 against North last time.

Polec has kicked a goal in 2 from his 3, and comes in fresh.

I can see this being a shitshow of a match, so under 118.5

(Warning to those who might tail this bet: I'm genuinely cursed at the moment. I mean it.)

 

[Del125763]

The drop in scoring is off the charts. Even when you factor in the short quarters and correct for that. It’s not just the shortened quarters, the scoring is down down down on previous seasons.

I reckon reduced quarters is part of the reason but I swear there used to be alot more late time or junk time goals late in prior seasons. Fitness is one thing and usually the better teams would push on against a younger or more inexperienced line up.