AFL 2020 - AFL Round 16 (no aftertiming allowed)

[Del125763]

Disposal Lines are up for Port v North:

Boak Under/Over 23.5
Wines Under/Over 20.5
Rockcliff Under/Over 22.5
Simpkin Under/Over 20.5
Higgins Under/Over 22.5
McDonald Under/Over 24.5
Dumont Under/over 19.5

 

[dontlimitme]

20$ Dixon Goal in Each Quarter @ 17.75 SB

 

[Del125763]

Roos are the 6th highest disposal team by average. , Port 4th against disposal team by average.

I think Jared Polec will be fired up to prove his coach wrong.

Polec Disposals 25+ @ $9.00, small nibble on 30+ @ $51

 

[5 Bucks]

Goldstein most DT group B $4 SB

 

[Del125763]

SGM Boak 24+ Disposals, Wines 21+ Disposals paying $4.05 for me as well

Roos are around mid-table in terms of conceding possessions. (around 300 per game)

Port Adelaide could end up around 330-340 disposals at the end of the game. Port's midfield is harder at the contested footy in comparison to Higgins, Dumont, Simpkin, Davies-Uniacke. Fancy Port to win the midfield and contested possession count.

 

[mouncey2franklin]

Roos are the 6th highest disposal team by average. , Port 4th against disposal team by average.

I think Jared Polec will be fired up to prove his coach wrong.

Polec Disposals 25+ @ $9.00, small nibble on 30+ @ $51

Where?

At SB he is $4.50 for 25+ and $11 for 30+.

 

[benji21]

Not sure its fully related to shorter quarters, scoring has been on the decline for years. This year there's a lot of teams trying to control the football which has made it worse. Freo, Pies at the forefront even teams like Carlton and Essendon are playing control styles at times.

 

[sneak]

Mason wood 10u ags @2.70

 

[ash_1050]

Roos are the 6th highest disposal team by average. , Port 4th against disposal team by average.

I think Jared Polec will be fired up to prove his coach wrong.

Polec Disposals 25+ @ $9.00, small nibble on 30+ @ $51

He hasn't done it all season and won't do it tonight, you're throwing your money away with nothing more than "he will be fired up" as your rationale. The bookies are treating bets like this as their bread and butter in terms of profitability.

 

[dontlimitme]

He hasn't done it all season and won't do it tonight, you're throwing your money away with nothing more than "he will be fired up" as your rationale. The bookies are treating bets like this as their bread and butter in terms of profitability.

had 25,23 and 23 early on in the season

 

[Del125763]

He hasn't done it all season and won't do it tonight, you're throwing your money away with nothing more than "he will be fired up" as your rationale. The bookies are treating bets like this as their bread and butter in terms of profitability.

yep and thats why he is a $51 chance. He has no chance of getting it.

 

[ash_1050]

had 25,23 and 23 early on in the season

Which game did he get 25 touches?

Here's my reference.

 

[Del125763]

Don't base my bet on season stats, just a gut feeling he will lift tonight. He has been averaging close to 20 possessions this season. Hasn't been the worst player on the Roos list.

 

[dontlimitme]

Which game did he get 25 touches?

Here's my reference.

game 1 vs st kilda

 

[ash_1050]

yep and thats why he is a $51 chance. He has no chance of getting it.

A $51 chance implies it's a 1.96% chance of happening, if you think he's a better chance that that go for gold, but I'm telling you right now it's a complete waste of money and I wouldn't be touching it at $101 odds.

 

[dontlimitme]

says on that he had 25 vs carlton as well

 

[dontlimitme]

so he's had 25, 23, 23, 25, 23 already this season. 9$ is decent

 

[ash_1050]

game 1 vs st kilda

Ah you're right, I'm an idiot. Leaving it here for posterity.

 

[Del125763]

Betting companies will base their odds on season statistics. i usually predict the disposals within 2-3 of the pre-game lines.

The value is in the 25+ and 30+ disposals lines or if you see a big discrepancy between your predictions and the sports betting lines. Usually the betting companies lines are about right. Given the disposal line for Polec 20+ is paying $2.00, if your risk averse that may be your bet. But if you like a bit more risk, than more disposals at better odds is the play. That's the path I have decided to take tonight.

As I speak the market for Polec now is:

15+ Disposals= $1.30
20+ Disposals= $2
25+ Disposals= $6
30+ Disposals= $51
35+ Disposals= $101
40+ Disposals=$251

PS: i got stung last night when Neale was short 1 disposal and got 27.

 

[sneak]

anyone like josh walker ags @3.50

 

[Bazza97]

anyone like josh walker ags @3.50

Yep got on him at Unibet at $3.50, named forward, North have Tarrant, McKay and Vickers-Willis as talls down back, reckon it's value

 

[dontlimitme]

anyone like josh walker ags @3.50

been playing defence everyweek, wish they'd put him up forward

 

[dontlimitme]

i swear walker was named FF last week then it changed last minute and had Daw up front lol

 

[sneak]

Sorry I forgot to say southern cross bet
Mason wood ags $2.70 10u

 

[GROTTO]

So I noticed tonight, Dixon is 2+@$1.40

Yet if I was betting I would rather be all over Trump at $1.85 to be next President Elect.