Racing September Daily Punt - Return of the Cossack

[AvantGardener]

Brandenburg @ $31 looks overs at first glance. 3rd in Donny, 3rd to Probabeel last start. Drawn well. Will be thereabouts

 

[Matty_G]

Brandenburg @ $31 looks overs at first glance. 3rd in Donny, 3rd to Probabeel last start. Drawn well. Will be thereabouts

Feel like Brandenburg got so overrated that its now reversed and he's slightly underrated. Don't have him on top but agree he's not a bad EW chance

 

[54Dogs]

Brandenburg is quite honest, but doesn't seem to have the sharp sprint you need to win a race like this. More of a grinder IMO.

 

[iluvparis]

Brandenburg is quite honest, but doesn't seem to have the sharp sprint you need to win a race like this. More of a grinder IMO.

I'd rather do my dough (again!) on Looks Like Elvis at the same price.

 

[TBellicious]

A good article that is very much in line with my current thoughts

Should Mo'unga Be Caulfield Guineas Favourite?

Last weekend can be defined as moving day for the Caulfield Guineas, you have the Bill Stutt Stakes run on Friday night and both the Prelude and Golden Rose run on the Saturday.

www.racingandsports.com

 

[4THAWN]

Personally don't think that Brandenburg will win - and that's coming from one of his strongest supporters who backed him at 40s in the Hobartville.

Super honest performer who will probably run into a placing in just about any race he's in.

 

[iluvparis]

A good article that is very much in line with my current thoughts

Should Mo'unga Be Caulfield Guineas Favourite?

Last weekend can be defined as moving day for the Caulfield Guineas, you have the Bill Stutt Stakes run on Friday night and both the Prelude and Golden Rose run on the Saturday.

www.racingandsports.com

It's fair logic but under the same premise you could have said he couldn't possibly be fave last start coming out of a Gold Coast Maiden and Newcastle C1.

The interesting thing out of that article I found was Timeform rating Tagaloa the equal of Ole Kirk and NP. Bit of home ground advantage and they would almost have to have him as their top pick at the prices!

 

[WWII]

Brandenburg @ $31 looks overs at first glance. 3rd in Donny, 3rd to Probabeel last start. Drawn well. Will be thereabouts

I was thinking Brandenburg's the best price. My money's on SOTS, looks like its first chance to win a Group 1 after a few close calls

 

[TBellicious]

It's fair logic but under the same premise you could have said he couldn't possibly be fave last start coming out of a Gold Coast Maiden and Newcastle C1.

The interesting thing out of that article I found was Timeform rating Tagaloa the equal of Ole Kirk and NP. Bit of home ground advantage and they would almost have to have him as their top pick at the prices!

I assume those ratings would be from their peak performances, which are mostly last start performances aside from Tagaloa whose would be from the Blue Diamond.

 

[iluvparis]

I assume those ratings would be from their peak performances, which are mostly last start performances aside from Tagaloa whose would be from the Blue Diamond.

I also lol'd at this line

By electing not to run in the Golden Rose, he will go into the Guineas with four weeks between runs, stepping up to the mile from 1500m.

A savage increase in distance in anyone's language.

The 4 weeks between runs would worry me though - can't think of the last horse to win it coming off that long a break - they almost always come through the Golden Rose or the Preludes.

 

[54Dogs]

I assume those ratings would be from their peak performances, which are mostly last start performances aside from Tagaloa whose would be from the Blue Diamond.

Would Tag being beaten 2L in an open Gp 1 under a very poor weight scale 3WNC rate higher than winning the BD as a 2YO?

 

[iluvparis]

Would Tag being beaten 2L in an open Gp 1 under a very poor weight scale 3WNC rate higher than winning the BD as a 2YO?

Yup it did - he was only 117 as a 2yo.

Interestingly Ole Kirk was only rated 111 before the GR. Is he going to be able to replicate that performance around Caulfield without something completely going off its nut in front?

In fact all three of OK, NP and Mo probably want a fair bit of pace in the race I would have thought.

 

[TBellicious]

You'd think the winner would be rating around the 120 mark given they are all thereabouts at the moment, even if one or two drop off
That means Mo'unga has to improve a significant amount from one run to another (further than OK improved from the RTR to the GR), and off a month break no less. Tough job.

 

[iluvparis]

Yeah but its a bit like the Derby winner in the UK who suddenly goes from 108 to 122 just for winning the Derby - the actual jump is not that difficult for a lightly raced 3yo compared to a say an older horse turning from Eduardo into Nature Strip.

 

[FallingLiefs]

You'd think the winner would be rating around the 120 mark given they are all thereabouts at the moment, even if one or two drop off
That means Mo'unga has to improve a significant amount from one run to another (further than OK improved from the RTR to the GR), and off a month break no less. Tough job.

The thing about timeform is they have a G1 horse class factor It's heavily dependant on what grade the race is. Horses through entry black type races simply do not rate well on their scale. It's not a bad system by any means you need to take it on board when assessing a horses chances to elevate though. They love the fully exposed types. Timeform more than most have the "body of work" built in.

They are an excellent system at fully exposed horses across nations though.

 

[AvantGardener]

I also lol'd at this line

By electing not to run in the Golden Rose, he will go into the Guineas with four weeks between runs, stepping up to the mile from 1500m.

A savage increase in distance in anyone's language.

The 4 weeks between runs would worry me though - can't think of the last horse to win it coming off that long a break - they almost always come through the Golden Rose or the Preludes.

Thats nothing to do with the 4 weeks between runs thought, its just because the best 3yos are usually racing in the Golden Rose and Preludes.

All Too Hard, Autumn Sun, Helmet etc didn't win the Guineas because they ran in a lead up race, they won the Guineas because they were the best horse.

 

[FallingLiefs]

A good article that is very much in line with my current thoughts

Should Mo'unga Be Caulfield Guineas Favourite?

Last weekend can be defined as moving day for the Caulfield Guineas, you have the Bill Stutt Stakes run on Friday night and both the Prelude and Golden Rose run on the Saturday.

www.racingandsports.com

A different look at it with more of an edge towards times than class weighting



Not far off Tagaloa who is 120 on the TF scale. I think thats a more realistic mark of how high he has to jump compared to the 16lb of timeform. Also I think if these all line up the winner will be given 123+ given they have already blown a load over the GR they have to step them up again to the mile with so many runners. I don't even like Mo'unga at the price just timeform reasoning is always hard in these unexposed form clashes.

 

[iluvparis]

I assume punters pal C Waller must be getting kickbacks from the corps and TABs for the deduction rorts they can pull when all his dual acceptors are scratched. He has accepted with Kolding and Verry Elleegant in the Hill Stakes.

 

[Cuzz09]

Ballarat
Race 5
No4
Gibbon each way

On SM-G925I using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Cuzz09]

Gold Coast

Race 3 no 2
Weboughtazou

Race 7 no 2
Dolly Spartan

singles and multi

On SM-G925I using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[plays tall 1]

I assume punters pal C Waller must be getting kickbacks from the corps and TABs for the deduction rorts they can pull when all his dual acceptors are scratched. He has accepted with Kolding and Verry Elleegant in the Hill Stakes.

Nobody sinks Before Noms bet refunds like this guy.

 

[iluvparis]

So will be coming out of Bart Cummings were it was a $6 chance

 

[Cuzz09]

Schabau in the Cummings.

54th on the order of entry to the cup.

Might make its move

On SM-G925I using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[iluvparis]

Schabau in the Cummings.

54th on the order of entry to the cup.

Might make its move

On SM-G925I using BigFooty.com mobile app

Needs to

 

[Turnover]

Finchie with 54.5 kgs. Interesting.