Opinion 2020 Draft #2: 1/9/22/23/40/80 (2021 + Melb 2nd, Haw 4th, Freo 4th)

[Deaneus!]

KEY DATES

Oct 30 – Nov 6: AFL Free Agency Period
November 4 – 12: AFL Trade Period
November 20: List Lodgment 1
November 27: List Lodgment 2
November 30: AFL Draft Nominations close
w/c December 7: NAB AFL Draft and Rookie Draft (exact date to be confirmed in due course)
Mid-December: Final List Lodgment & TPP estimates

As God is my witness, finding anything useful on the AFL.com.au site is practically impossible, may whoever designed it burn in hell.​

 

[Comeonden]

Powell seems to be rising up in draft rankings, will we take him at pick 9?

 

[Murray2503]

"The ultimate transfer of wealth - the AFL delisted free agents clubs should target" on YouTube

 

[Kane Johnson]

https://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_...t-************-knightmare-crows-pick-number-1 I don't know if anyone has posted this one yet.

 

[Mutineer]

Is this kid in the frame to be drafted?

Torrens University Draft Target - Jamison Murphy

Football's gain is cricket's loss when it comes to North Adelaide's Jamison Murphy.

sanfl.com.au

Don't think so, lacks pace and versatility. Leadership in spades but.

 

[Draft Bored]

One of the big problems we have in terms of bundling some picks to move up the draft order is that the options are very, very limited. Unfortunately, the way the trade period turned out with Essendon and GWS having multiple picks, it really limits the number of teams who might consider a swap.

The options seem like;

North pick 2 & 11 - No point in them swapping. They won't move 11 down I wouldn't have thought.
Sydney pick 3 then 34 - would only move up the order not down
Hawthorn pick 4 then 24 Can't see them being willing to move 4 down to 9 and don't think they need an extra pick around their 24 either
Gold Coast pick 5 then 27. Could possibly move to 9, but don't think they need any of our 22/23 picks. Highly unlikely, unless we include future picks.
Essendon picks 6,7,8. Could possibly be willing to do a deal if a player we want is available at 6 that they don't want, but then why not just wait until pick 9 anyway? Unlikely to move anything.

So it seems like any swap that includes pick 9 is very unlikely. It really is probably only Gold Coast that is remotely likely.

After our pick, the options for trading 22/23 look like;

GWS picks 10, 13, 15, 20, 29 They have plenty of picks. Nothing happening there.
North - pick 11 already covered
Fremantle - Pick 12 then 32. This one looks the most likely. Might depend on what points they need and their list size. Most likely I would have thought.
Collingwood picks 14, 16, 65 A possible move here. Could 14 for 22/23 work? Could we include a deal for their 1st round pick next year?
Richmond pick 17. I'd guess that unless there is someone we absolutely love still available, we are getting to the point of it not being worth swapping the picks. Could work though.


So it looks like;

Pick 9 swap - Gold Coast the most likely. Hawthorn maybe at a stretch. Otherwise no options. Looks very unlikely

Pick 22/23 swap - Fremantle at pick 12 the most desirable. Collingwood at 14 or 16 possible. Richmond at 17 possible but getting unlikely.

We really aren't flush with options.

I agree. The trade period put 3 other teams in a better position to trade up than us (GWS, Collingwood, Melb).

It concerns me that Essendon will trade out pick 8 to GWS so they can take 4 kids in the top 15. I think it makes sense for both clubs.

GWS: 13 + 15
ESS: 8

GWS: 8, 10, 20
ESS: 6, 7, 13, 15

My concern is we know GWS have interviewed Hollands twice. They're clearly not expecting to get him down at 10 so they must think they're a chance at moving up to catch him if he falls. If he's falling on draft night and Essendon have passed on him at 6 and 7 then GWS jump in to take him one pick ahead of us I will throw my TV out the window.

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

Don't think so, lacks pace and versatility. Leadership in spades but.

Hmm interesting

He was Australian Under 16 cricket captain and gave up cricket to focus on football

 

[Bearded Clam]

Ye

This makes sense. We need 5 picks, so we could take our 4 draft picks and then Borlase. Or if we manage to package up two picks for one, we have the option of taking 3 picks, Borlase and then uprgading Keays, or 3 picks, Borlase and Newchurch if he's bid on.

We have the flexibility to do whatever we think we need.

Personally I will be spewing if we don't have Newchurch on our list. Hopefully it is as a Cat B rookie, but I'm worried that might not happen.

yep.. if we dont take Newchurch i’ll be *in over it.. kid has x-factor, speed and awesome skills and goal sense.. sure, there might be some minor mental/attitude issues but, * me, the lad is only young.. back yourself in to help him change these and coach them out of him.

you cant teach someone “x-factor”, you cant teach someone “speed” and thats not speed in how fast they can run “speed”.. but speed in decision making under pressure.. although the kid can run bloody fast too with ball in hand!.. and sometimes skills are hard to teach, some guys just naturally have a higher level of silky skills..

you can teach a player where to position himself in the contest, when to get involved and when to stand back and wait for delivery and you can help young lads make changes when it comes to attitude and effort.

I like the look of this Hinge lad but if getting him ends up costing us Newchurch.. thats just s**t. We already have a shitload of defensive types.. what we desperately need are more forward/midfield x-factor types.. and Newchurch has that written all over him..

 

[Mutineer]

Hmm interesting

He was Australian Under 16 cricket captain and gave up cricket to focus on football

Not invited to the SANFL/National Combine which is usually an indicator of AFL club interest. Not out of the realm of possibilities but it would seem a long shot.

South Aussies invited to NAB AFL Combines - SANFL

sanfl.com.au

 

[Golumless]

Ye

yep.. if we dont take Newchurch i’ll be fu**in over it.. kid has x-factor, speed and awesome skills and goal sense.. sure, there might be some minor mental/attitude issues but, fu** me, the lad is only young.. back yourself in to help him change these and coach them out of him.

you cant teach someone “x-factor”, you cant teach someone “speed” and thats not speed in how fast they can run “speed”.. but speed in decision making under pressure.. although the kid can run bloody fast too with ball in hand!.. and sometimes skills are hard to teach, some guys just naturally have a higher level of silky skills..

you can teach a player where to position himself in the contest, when to get involved and when to stand back and wait for delivery and you can help young lads make changes when it comes to attitude and effort.

I like the look of this Hinge lad but if getting him ends up costing us Newchurch.. thats just sh*t. We already have a shitload of defensive types.. what we desperately need are more forward/midfield x-factor types.. and Newchurch has that written all over him..

I'm pretty comfortable with whatever we do with Newchurch. We know the kid inside and out, and if we're not willing to list him in the national draft, we've probably seen some serious, and quite likely potentially career-ending, flaws in his makeup.

That said, I'd be surprised if he didn't end up on our list as a Cat B. rookie. He seems a rather quintessential rookie pick in a lot of ways.

 

[FAITH]

Ye

yep.. if we dont take Newchurch i’ll be fu**in over it.. kid has x-factor, speed and awesome skills and goal sense.. sure, there might be some minor mental/attitude issues but, fu** me, the lad is only young.. back yourself in to help him change these and coach them out of him.

you cant teach someone “x-factor”, you cant teach someone “speed” and thats not speed in how fast they can run “speed”.. but speed in decision making under pressure.. although the kid can run bloody fast too with ball in hand!.. and sometimes skills are hard to teach, some guys just naturally have a higher level of silky skills..

you can teach a player where to position himself in the contest, when to get involved and when to stand back and wait for delivery and you can help young lads make changes when it comes to attitude and effort.

I like the look of this Hinge lad but if getting him ends up costing us Newchurch.. thats just sh*t. We already have a shitload of defensive types.. what we desperately need are more forward/midfield x-factor types.. and Newchurch has that written all over him..

We are taking newchurch chill.

Powell seems to be rising up in draft rankings, will we take him at pick 9?

No.

 

[GrommoT]

..., meaning we go into a point deficit in 2021

We'll be close with that last pick ?

That would just affect our first 3rd round draft pick (what pick #45 is) ... no biggie.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

https://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_...t-************-knightmare-crows-pick-number-1 I don't know if anyone has posted this one yet.

What a garbage article .....it's clear from the piece that Thilthorpe has the better skills, but we should take him because McDonald had 5 good WAFL games, and forgetting the last 3 games where he was ineffectual

So we're being asked to use pick 1 on the back of 5 games and "hope" he has development in him & it wasn't a flash of form .......very little strengths were identified

Welcome another Josh Schache

19

Josh Schache

Age

26

Ht

199cm

Wt

94kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

9.8

2star

K

6.0

2star

HB

3.8

3star

M

3.6

4star

T

1.3

3star

G

1.2

4star

D

6.5

1star

K

4.0

1star

HB

2.5

2star

M

1.5

2star

T

0.0

1star

G

1.0

4star

D

10.2

3star

K

7.2

3star

HB

3.0

3star

M

4.6

5star

T

2.2

4star

G

0.8

4star

& Peter Wright ....who also were raved about in their Draft years .....look how that's worked out

 

[WaynesWorld19]

I'm pretty comfortable with whatever we do with Newchurch. We know the kid inside and out, and if we're not willing to list him in the national draft, we've probably seen some serious, and quite likely potentially career-ending, flaws in his makeup.

That said, I'd be surprised if he didn't end up on our list as a Cat B. rookie. He seems a rather quintessential rookie pick in a lot of ways.

Same here .....if Newchurch's "X-Factor" doesn't see 17 other clubs pick him in 3 Draft rounds .....he's obviously a high chance of being a bust anyway

I'd really prefer bidding on BRIS's academy player Coleman anyway

 

[Draft Bored]

Same here .....if Newchurch's "X-Factor" doesn't see 17 other clubs pick him in 3 Draft rounds .....he's obviously a high chance of being a bust anyway

I'd really prefer bidding on BRIS's academy player Coleman anyway

Exactly.

I don't see why there's so much concern over our position in the draft for Borlace and Newchurch. If the club rates them, they're positioned to get them. I suspect they're both "nice to haves" in the rookie draft and that's it.

 

[TexForPM]

Sanders you must have to day off you're shooting out replies like R Kelly on Napster.

 

[Mutineer]

Same here .....if Newchurch's "X-Factor" doesn't see 17 other clubs pick him in 3 Draft rounds .....he's obviously a high chance of being a bust anyway

I'd really prefer bidding on BRIS's academy player Coleman anyway

Isiah Winder if he's still there at #40 is the X factor guy for us.

Brodie Lake also if the GCS's pass on nominating him.

 

[mattymac]

What a garbage article .....it's clear from the piece that Thilthorpe has the better skills, but we should take him because McDonald had 5 good WAFL games, and forgetting the last 3 games where he was ineffectual

So we're being asked to use pick 1 on the back of 5 games and "hope" he has development in him & it wasn't a flash of form .......very little strengths were identified

Welcome another Josh Schache

19

Josh Schache

Age

26

Ht

199cm

Wt

94kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

9.8

2star

K

6.0

2star

HB

3.8

3star

M

3.6

4star

T

1.3

3star

G

1.2

4star

D

6.5

1star

K

4.0

1star

HB

2.5

2star

M

1.5

2star

T

0.0

1star

G

1.0

4star

D

10.2

3star

K

7.2

3star

HB

3.0

3star

M

4.6

5star

T

2.2

4star

G

0.8

4star

& Peter Wright ....who also were raved about in their Draft years .....look how that's worked out

Knightmare is having a shocking year

 

[GrommoT]

You're not wrong.

Note that we need to have a minimum of 36 players on our senior list, which is why we need to take 5 players in the ND. We could select 4 players in the ND and upgrade Butts or Keays from the rookie list, as some have suggested, but that's completely nonsensical given the decision to move Mackay & Davis from the senior list to the rookie list.

We could upgrade Mackay

 

[Vader]

Pick 66 is 32 points less than 63 and at worst Lemons' 2021 r4 could range from pick 46(331, finish last) to 55(207, mid table) to 63(112, premiers). So points wise, we've likely given them about 170 points - hardly an unreasonable outcome I would think, especially when uncertainty of the value of the future pick is thrown in.

Breaking the "trade" down into separate elements:
- Bris delisting Hinge
- Hinge choosing to sign with us as a DFA
- us giving up around 80 to 300 in points to Bris

hardly looks to be unfair to other clubs, which I understand is the key consideration the ∀FL looks at when considering is something is draft tampering or not.

It's the Freo deal which is the one of interest, not the Brisbane trade.

The Freo deal saw us give up picks 55 & 63, for a 2021 4th round pick. This is the one which stripped us of points for matching potential bids on Borlase, by moving the points (at a cents in the dollar rate) to the 2021 draft.

 

[Mr MysteryGuest]

Not so sure how thats a great structure A lot came happen in list balance in 12 years though so

regardless I can’t see him being picked before around pick 45

Do you think McDonald is a better fit structure wise?

I think the biggest question on taking 1 of the talls, is what we believe the best set up is. My preference is 3 talls, assuming there’s a balance in play style.

 

[Flying_as_One1991]

Knightmare is having a shocking year

like most journos let’s just make 10 guesses one bound to be right.

 

[Draft Bored]

Knightmare is having a shocking year

To be fair Dan Andrews has had him locked in his house most of the year. He's probably going mad.

 

[Murray2503]

Looking forward to the melts on draft night. May even top a Thursday night back em in.

 

[Flying_as_One1991]

Looking forward to the melts on draft night. May even top a Thursday night back em in.

it is actually funny reading everyone whinge on fb.

 

[jackster83]

It's the Freo deal which is the one of interest, not the Brisbane trade.

The Freo deal saw us give up picks 55 & 63, for a 2021 4th round pick. This is the one which stripped us of points for matching potential bids on Borlase, by moving the points (at a cents in the dollar rate) to the 2021 draft.

The only reason I could see for that is to help them get their NGA's and in return they won't bid on ours.