Prediction Changes v Port - Rd 9, 2021

[conrad_437]

Yes, I agree, yet it so hard with concussion to know when someone is right. I was knocked out cold for a few minutes in my early 20's. Vomited non-stop for days, couldn't lie down without my head spinning for months. Finally went for a head scan when returned to Australia, 4 months later and had bruising on the brain which would heel naturally in time. Took about another 2 months for symptoms to stop, so a total of 6 months. Could I have played sport after 3 months, likely. Would playing sport after the first knock have effected me. Unlikely unless I got a second knock and there lies the issue. I don't think there is an easy answer.

Brain bruising a hell of a lot more serious than concussion though. I played with a kid once who actually ended up in ICU over it and didn’t play for a year. There’s probably a spectrum for the seriousness of brain bruising, as well as concussion as we are seeing with English right now. Most people are feeling 100% from concussion in less than a week, he seems to be having issues nearly 3 weeks on.

 

[Optimistic Dog]

Brain bruising a hell of a lot more serious than concussion though. I played with a kid once who actually ended up in ICU over it and didn’t play for a year. There’s probably a spectrum for the seriousness of brain bruising, as well as concussion as we are seeing with English right now. Most people are feeling 100% from concussion in less than a week, he seems to be having issues nearly 3 weeks on.

My observation was that Astro's knee struck him the jaw I would have thought from a concussion point of view that is better than a knee to head from along term perspective. However the fact he is still not right is concerning.

 

[Optimistic Dog]

Catch 22. Just another point on Astro as much as we all love how fearless he is in the air does he need do temper it a little bit. He is a danger to himself and team mates getting injured. It is a hard one his attack on the ball in the air and on the ground is his one wood but he has ankle and knee injuries from awkward landings.

 

[conrad_437]

My observation was that Astro's knee struck him the jaw I would have thought from a concussion point of view that is better than a knee to head from along term perspective. However the fact he is still not right is concerning.

It looked very similar to Zaine Cordy’s knee to Callan Ward in the 2016 PF and I think it was described at the time as “the boxer’s perfect knockout blow”. I’m no expert on boxing, but I know vaguely that the part of the head where jaw meets skull is very susceptible to knockout blows. I’m assuming the same thing happened with Timmy.

 

[True Dog]

It looked very similar to Zaine Cordy’s knee to Callan Ward in the 2016 PF and I think it was described at the time as “the boxer’s perfect knockout blow”. I’m no expert on boxing, but I know vaguely that the part of the head where jaw meets skull is very susceptible to knockout blows. I’m assuming the same thing happened with Timmy.

Lets not forget him crashing to the ground barley conscious with Naughton laying on top of him? Another week or two for the betterment of his health and wellbeing is no biggie in the scheme of things.

 

[bobs head soup]

I think Crozier as sub would be more about him being a little sore than form related.

We made McNeil sub a few weeks back as a form of management, but he ended up playing basically the whole game and was rested the following week

 

[Boyd oh Boyd]

My observation was that Astro's knee struck him the jaw I would have thought from a concussion point of view that is better than a knee to head from along term perspective. However the fact he is still not right is concerning.

It's not really the impact to the head that causes the concussion, it's the brain hitting the wall of the skull. Anything that whips someone's head around is going to have the same amount of damage.

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

It's not really the impact to the head that causes the concussion, it's the brain hitting the wall of the skull. Anything that whips someone's head around is going to have the same amount of damage.

You're right that this is certainly sometimes the case, but the part that's often missed (and is often more important) is the way the brain moves within the skull. You've got rapid deceleration, so some parts of the brain move more than others and result in some 'shearing' of the neuronal structure. It's hard to think of a good example, but if you imagine grabbing opposite ends of a cloud of fairy floss and twisting lightly in different directions, some of the strands in the middle of the cloud are going to pull apart, and those kinds of forces are what we most commonly associate with concussion.

That's a very crude depiction, but hopefully illustrates the kind of force I'm talking about.

 

[Pugz89]

Port is apparently going with Ladhams and Bonner for Lycett and Houston. Both big outs for them.

 

[Northernsoul74]

Port is apparently going with Ladhams and Bonner for Lycett and Houston. Both big outs for them.

Surprised Hayes still can’t get a game for them.

 

[Dogsman16]

Surprised Hayes still can’t get a game for them.

I think they have made a mistake. Really plan A against us should be to neutralise the midfield battle and you do that by selecting your best tap ruck. Ladhams isn't great in that area. At all.

 

[Dogsman16]

Last years Port game was probably the most frustrated I've ever been in some time watching the dogs. Despite getting destroyed in the ruck we still managed to dominate clearances and inside 50s for a large duration of that game but our kicking inside 50 was woeful.

Even worse was the selection of that team. The times when you think we went too short across the park. Well that game was it. We picked one ruck (English) and the one tall forward in Bruce (who was chopping out in the ruck as well). That's all the talls we had forward of centre. Port went to destroy us in the air with 21-6 contested marks whilst we had no one to kick to up forward for large patches of the game.

I'm glad Beveridge has rediscovered the importance of structure across the park and am confident that if we hold up better against a weaker ruck unit than we faced last year our mids and key forwards should get the job done for us.

Edit: Actually Lycett missed for them last year too. Instead this time its Sweet vs Ladhams not English vs Ladhams.

Hopefully timmy can get up for this one to give us a ruck advantage.

 

[BrunswickDog]

Last years Port game was probably the most frustrated I've ever been in some time watching the dogs. Despite getting destroyed in the ruck we still managed to dominate clearances and inside 50s for a large duration of that game but our kicking inside 50 was woeful.

Even worse was the selection of that team. The times when you think we went too short across the park. Well that game was it. We picked one ruck (English) and the one tall forward in Bruce (who was chopping out in the ruck as well). That's all the talls we had forward of centre. Port went to destroy us in the air with 21-6 contested marks whilst we had no one to kick to up forward for large patches of the game.

I'm glad Beveridge has rediscovered the importance of structure across the park and am confident that if we hold up better against a weaker ruck unit than we faced last year our mids and key forwards should get the job done for us.

Edit: Actually Lycett missed for them last year too. Instead this time its Sweet vs Ladhams not English vs Ladhams.

Hopefully timmy can get up for this one to give us a ruck advantage.

Also was the game where JJ gifted Port 2 goals, which really snuffed out our run in that game.

 

[VogonProsthetnic]

English looked to be training ok in the photos.

He probably could play if needed.

Whether he should play is unknown.

 

[doggies ftw]

Catch 22. Just another point on Astro as much as we all love how fearless he is in the air does he need do temper it a little bit. He is a danger to himself and team mates getting injured. It is a hard one his attack on the ball in the air and on the ground is his one wood but he has ankle and knee injuries from awkward landings.

Yeah, nah. You don’t start tempering players attack on the ball. It’s an unlucky accident that happens one in100 times. We all talk about Cordys knee that helped us win a flag, this one was unfortunate. It is what it is play on

How would you even expect Naughty to control that? Make him assess the situation in milliseconds and decide nah I’m not gonna fly for this one too dangerous, or maybe only jump half as high? Maybe he should write up a SWMS before every marking contest and proceed accordingly

 

[Dogsman16]

Also was the game where JJ gifted Port 2 goals, which really snuffed out our run in that game.

Yep that hurt. JJ had a stinker.

I'm a JJ critic but I reckon if JJ had more tall options to kick too he wouldn't have made those errors. The structure up forward was the worst I had ever seen at the dogs (and I've seen plenty of games where an undersized forward line has lost us games).

 

[Dogsman16]

Bev: Big chance we give Tim another week.

 

[Pugz89]

Hunter likely, English to miss.
So Weightman, Williams and Gardner in for Buku, Lipinski and Cordy would be my changes.

 

[Libba39]

On the Port board they are saying this is a real season-defining game for them. Makes me think they're going to come out and play hard ball a'la GWS.

I'd like to have a hungry vice captain back in the middle this week to give them someone else to tackle who they weren't expecting.

 

[Dogsman16]

Hunter likely, to miss.
So Weightman, Williams and Gardner in for Buku, Lipinski and Cordy would be my changes.

Bev said he's likely to get up.

 

[Sentinel]

Hunter likely, to miss.
So Weightman, Williams and Gardner in for Buku, Lipinski and Cordy would be my changes.

I believe you meant to write 'Hunter likely, English to miss'..

 

[Dogsman16]

My team.

FB: Williams, Young, Wood
HF: Dale, Keath, Crozier
C: Smith, Libba, Hunter
HF: JJ, Naughton, Bont
FF: Cordy, Bruce, Weightman
R: Sweet, Macrae, Treloar
Int: McNeil, Scott, Duryea, Hannan

Cordy forward might be a strange call but he's the type who could put some key blocks on for Naught and lay some physical tackles. Could also try and play a bit of a negating role on Alir.

 

[Guido]

Bev: Big chance we give Tim another week.

If there's any doubt whatsoever on his recovery, it's the correct call.

He had the enforced week off, then with another two missed games, it'll be 29-30 days between games. I'm not sure where I read it, but I think that's somewhere around the more conservative recommendation for really bad sporting hits, so I'm impressed that we're doing this.

Would have been very easy to dismiss some headaches and tick off on him playing him 2 or 3 weeks after the concussion - in retrospect, madness to consider the amount of times players would come back the following week immediately after an equivalent hit.

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

Last years Port game was probably the most frustrated I've ever been in some time watching the dogs. Despite getting destroyed in the ruck we still managed to dominate clearances and inside 50s for a large duration of that game but our kicking inside 50 was woeful.

Even worse was the selection of that team. The times when you think we went too short across the park. Well that game was it. We picked one ruck (English) and the one tall forward in Bruce (who was chopping out in the ruck as well). That's all the talls we had forward of centre. Port went to destroy us in the air with 21-6 contested marks whilst we had no one to kick to up forward for large patches of the game.

I'm glad Beveridge has rediscovered the importance of structure across the park and am confident that if we hold up better against a weaker ruck unit than we faced last year our mids and key forwards should get the job done for us.

Edit: Actually Lycett missed for them last year too. Instead this time its Sweet vs Ladhams not English vs Ladhams.

Hopefully timmy can get up for this one to give us a ruck advantage.

I don't have stats for this so perhaps I'm wrong, but based on my eye, the issue with our matchup against Port is that they defend clearance breaks really, really well. It's on the turnover game that they're vulnerable, but that requires us to generate turnovers in a defensive 50 where we're always undersized. Their excellent initial defence means that they negate our stoppage play, and their offensive prowess makes it difficult for us to put them in vulnerable positions. All up we get an absolute slog where we do all the hard work, they wait it out, and then score way too easily. Again and again and again.

To beat them, we need to hit our I50 connections really well, and/or defend their talls better than we have historically - and these are probably our biggest weaknesses. And, of course, we need to at least break even in the middle and apply pressure - if that falls off, we're done for. It's just a really bad matchup for us.

 

[Dogsman16]

If there's any doubt whatsoever on his recovery, it's the correct call.

He had the enforced week off, then with another two missed games, it'll be 29-30 days between games. I'm not sure where I read it, but I think that's somewhere around the more conservative recommendation for really bad sporting hits, so I'm impressed that we're doing this.

Would have been very easy to dismiss some headaches and tick off on him playing him 2 or 3 weeks after the concussion - in retrospect, madness to consider the amount of times players would come back the following week immediately after an equivalent hit.

Would be interesting to see if we played him had Lycett not been suspended.

I do agree with the conservative approach though.