Team Mgmt. Talk about the makeup of our list - midfield balance, height profile, endurance runners

[Towno78]

So, the following are still OOC:

3+ years: Jake Stringer
2 years: Jayden Laverde, Matt Guelfi
1 year: Andrew Phillips, Brandon Zerk-Thatcher, Cian McBride, Kaine Baldwin, Ned Cahill, Tom Hird

Delist: Irving Mosquito, Lachlan Johnson, Dylan Clarke, Tom Cutler, Martin Gleeson
Retire: Cale Hooker, David Zaharakis, Patrick Ambrose

That's what I think happens. Not that I think cutting our mature depth is a great idea. Depends on who we trade in as well

Absolutely spot on

 

[Ambrosia]

So, the following are still OOC:

3+ years: Jake Stringer
2 years: Jayden Laverde, Matt Guelfi
1 year: Andrew Phillips, Brandon Zerk-Thatcher, Cian McBride, Kaine Baldwin, Ned Cahill, Tom Hird

Delist: Irving Mosquito, Lachlan Johnson, Dylan Clarke, Tom Cutler, Martin Gleeson
Retire: Cale Hooker, David Zaharakis, Patrick Ambrose

That's what I think happens. Not that I think cutting our mature depth is a great idea. Depends on who we trade in as well

Agree only minor quibbles are I wouldn’t be giving Guelfi 2 years and Ambrose will be delisted not retired.

Heck we should actually make sure we delist all our outgoing players and not have them marked as retired because of the 1/100 chance we want to re-add them to our list via mid season draft.

 

[blitzer]

For something a bit different and to demonstrate a bugbear of mine I thought it would be interesting to look at the age profile of the current list in 2 years time (2023 season). The reason I think this is a good way to examine the list is that I believe good list management should be proactive in identifying (where possible) future needs and deficiencies as much as meeting current needs and deficiencies.

It makes sense when you think about it - if you fail to have AFL standard players ready to step up as the older generation reach the end of their careers you then either need to trade someone in to fill the hole ASAP (and pay a premium for the convinience) or draft players and wait a few years for them to develop enough to fill the void.

A case in point would be our ruck stocks in recent years. Ryder requested a trade and it was clear Bellchambers couldn't keep going forever yet we waited until he was very much on his last legs before drafting Draper. Yes, other attempts were made - Thurlow, Lavender and Nyuon were drafted, Leuenberger and Clarke were traded but it's hard to see rookie draft picks as anything other than a gamble while Clarke and Leuenberger did not provide a long term solution. It really wasn't until Bryan was drafted in the second round that what I would consider a serious attempt at addressing the issue happened (Draper could've easily joined the long line of rookie list busts, especially after his ACL).

Another example would be our failure to find a big bodied midfielder to fill the void Watson left, something I'm not sure we've properly addressed to this day.

Our current group of players as it stands is as follows, each players' age in 2023 is listed. I have bolded the ones where there is reason to think they may not be on the list in 2023 or where it is likely they have regressed from being regulars in the best 22 to depth (similar to how Zaharakis is more of a stopgap these days).

Andrew McGrath 24
Sam Draper 24
Darcy Parish 25
Kyle Langford 26
Devon Smith 29
- I think this is pretty obvious, his performances have declined and his kicking is getting worse. He will still be on the list as he is contracted however I think unless our list management is genuinely awful he will be depth.
Jye Caldwell 22
- Good player but I can't help thinking that with his history of soft tissue injuries he is probably touch and go to play regular games from this point. He will still be on the list as he is contracted to 2024 and while some players have overcome recurring infuries most do not and I don't think it is sensible to include him in future list management calculations. If he makes it it's a bonus.
Zach Merrett 27
Martin Gleeson 28
- Handy player as we saw last night, albeit against a shithouse opposition. It could be argued either way whether he stays or goes but I don't think he's a regular in the best 22 unless there's a lot of injuries and I don't really see the point in keeping someone in that situation on the list.
Dylan Shiel 30
- Will still be on the list but at 30 his best years will be behind him and I doubt his breakaway speed which is his real weapon and point of difference will be a factor. It may take a couple of bites at the cherry to find a player of his standard to start filling the void so I would be more at ease if that process started now.
Aaron Francis 25
- I can't help thinking he'll request a trade to SA. I don't think we get much back for him either because he hasn't really lived up to his potential.
David Zaharakis 33
- Obviously gone, probably at the end of 2021
Tom Cutler 28
- Only gets games due to injuries and I think to improve as a side our depth needs to be better than this. I think he gets delisted either this year or next.
Nik Cox 21
Jordan Ridley 24
Jayden Laverde 27
Archie Perkins 21
James Stewart 29
- Kind of hard to get a feel for. I think he's still on this list in 2023 but probably (hopefully) has become depth rather than our first choice KPD.
Michael Hurley 32
- Apparently still hasn't started running properly and I would be surprised if a player his age can get back to the standard required to be a regular in the senior team. I think he retires at the end of 2022.
Nick Hind 28
Peter Wright 26
Dyson Heppell 30
- Has looked good in defence but I think by 30 he'll be very much worse for wear.
Irving Mosquito 22
- I get the feeling most people here agree it's unlikely he'll be back.
Harrison Jones 22
Nick Bryan 21
Jake Stringer 28
Cale Hooker 34
- Shouldn't play next year. Early in the season I thought he would go around again but as the season has gone on he's been getting slower.
Mason Redman 25
Ned Cahill 22
- I don't think he's really shown enough for anyone to have any real expectation he'll be on the list in 2 years time. I think it's just a question of whether this year or next is his last.
Patrick Ambrose 31
- Injury prone, I don't think he plays beyond this year.
Brandon Zerk-Thatcher 24
- I think he is pretty close to as good as he is ever going to be, which isn't too bad but not good enough to get regular games. In an ideal world he is replaced as depth by Brand/Eyre (if the switch to defence is permanent) or Stewart.
Zach Reid 21
Josh Eyre 20
Brayden Ham 23
- He shows some signs but I think when you're his size you need a real weapon or point of difference and I'm not sure he has that. Contracted to next year but for us to improve our depth needs to be better than this.
Andrew Phillips 31
- Maybe he plays past 30, maybe he doesn't. He's currently reasonablly injury prone and I don't think that is something that gets better with age.
Matt Guelfi 25
- I don't really know what happens from here. Handy enough but at the end of the day he's in and out of a mediocre side with a significant injury list and I don't think many players are held onto for long in that situation.
Lachlan Johnson 21
- By all reports he's not doing well in the VFL and is no chance of making it into the senior side.
Dylan Clarke 24
- Our one attempt at a big bodied mid since Watson. I think if after 5 years in the system and your kicking is still a liability your days are probably numbered. Already demoted to the rookie list and when turnovers are already a major reason we get scored against so heavily so he's probably not a priority to re-sign.
Cody Brand 20
Will Snelling 25
Cian McBride 22
- Kicked a bunch of goals in the VFL but it's still a coin toss with delisting or homesickness just as likely as him making it.
Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti 30
- Seems kinda indestructible but I think by the time he's 30 he'll be starting to slow down a lot.
Alec Waterman 26
- I don't really see it here. His set shot goal kicking is a real weapon but he doesn't take enough marks within range for it to be a factor. He's one who is getting regular games but probably needs to be pushed out of the side by someone if we are to take the next step as a side.
Tom Hird 22
- People keep saying they see something in him, I'm not convinced and on the balance of probability I don't think he makes it.
Sam Durham 21
Kaine Baldwin 20

That ends up being 24 of 45 players who I anticipate will probably be taking a backwards step - either from best 22 to depth, or depth to delisted - in the space of a couple of years.

Small forwards are a big issue with Smith (hopefully) and Walla (probably) no longer commanding a spot in the senior side. I don't think we need to set out to trade or target this position in the draft as it sounds like we have some FS/NGA small forwards in the nest year or so.

The midfield definitely needs attention, we still haven't found a big bodied midfielder and with an aging Shiel seemingly the only player who's name isn't Darcy Parish or Zac Merrett who can win clearances I think a clearance winning midfielder should be high on our priority list. As a bonus, this would allow Stringer to spend less time in the midfield and more time up forward where I think he is a more dangerous player. As mentioned, I think Caldwell getting over his injuries should be seen as a bonus rather than an expectation. I would like us to look a little later inthe draft for a blue collar type who is prepared to do the team first stuff as well.

A replacement for Heppell should be high on the list too, it wouldn't hurt to have a crack with a couple of later picks this year but the chances of finding a player of Heppell's quality outside of the first round are pretty remote so I would be more comfortable if we use our first round pick in 2022 to target his successor. Hind and Heppell set up a lot of our plays so I don't think it is worth leaving this to chance, although as Hind and Saad (when we got him from GCS) proved, you can definitely find useful players cheap during trade week.

While it's not a position I think should be filled with a high pick or an expensive trade we should definitely get another ruck on the list to develop. We're OK for depth currently but if Phillips hangs up the boots we're pretty exposed should one of them go down with an injury.

The final critical need I see is the wing as I don't think a finals bound side has players like Ham in the best 22. It may be the case that recruiting additional midfielders pushes Langford into this role so it probably isn't critical enough to justify using a first round pick but it is something we need to keep in mind.

I don't think other positions are as critical as we either have depth or have a number of players in development to fill those roles who for the time being can be supplemented with later draft selections or cheap trades. One would hope we are assessing our stocks in these positions regularly between now and 2023 and change priorities if necessary. A lot of the quality on our list will be coming into their prime around 2023 so if there's no other pressing needs this would be the time to recruit a marquee player and search for some lesser lights to top up our depth for a big crack at the top 4.

Obviously peering this far into the crystal ball is fraught with uncertainty - players can suffer season ending injuries or request trades, other times a player we all regard as depth can make an unexpected step up and become a key part of the best 22. The main point of the exercise is to see how list management is a multi year, layered process and who we recruit now has long lasting impacts. Get it wrong and it can take years to turn it around which runs a very real risk of wasting the successful drafting of previous years.

I respect the effort made into this post but i think you've been a bit too negative. You've got every player that hits 30 falling off the proverbial cliff when there's a good to decent chance that some of them will still be good contributors and may even still be in their prime (performance wise).
I personally doubt that Tippa won't be going strong when he's 30. He has been extremely durable and he was a relatively late starter. This is his best year of his career and he's 28. Even if he lost a step he would probably still be a good contributor because of his exceptional skills and smarts.
Not sure about the assessments on Heppell or Shiel either. I'd say both will still be on the list and I'd say odds are at least one of them still performing well.

You've kind of slanted it so that every player that might not live up to their potential won't (up to and including requesting trades) but in reality you do get a mixture of wins and losses. Its a bit like how no one saw the likes of Laverde and Hind performing the way they have this year and many were doubtful on Redman too.

One good thing about the players you've listed in general though is that most of them aren't really key players to the side (let's say top 10 current performers). Probably only Tippa and Heppell (with Shiel if he was fit). Its a lot easier to replace the guys in the bottom half of your list than it is your best performers. Quite a few of them are more VFL than AFL. So its not so much about the total numbers as its quite easy to replace depth compared to top end quality.

 

[Old Campaigner]

I respect the effort made into this post but i think you've been a bit too negative. You've got every player that hits 30 falling off the proverbial cliff when there's a good to decent chance that some of them will still be good contributors and may even still be in their prime (performance wise).
I personally doubt that Tippa won't be going strong when he's 30. He has been extremely durable and he was a relatively late starter. This is his best year of his career and he's 28. Even if he lost a step he would probably still be a good contributor because of his exceptional skills and smarts.
Not sure about the assessments on Heppell or Shiel either. I'd say both will still be on the list and I'd say odds are at least one of them still performing well.

You've kind of slanted it so that every player that might not live up to their potential won't (up to and including requesting trades) but in reality you do get a mixture of wins and losses. Its a bit like how no one saw the likes of Laverde and Hind performing the way they have this year and many were doubtful on Redman too.

One good thing about the players you've listed in general though is that most of them aren't really key players to the side (let's say top 10 current performers). Probably only Tippa and Heppell (with Shiel if he was fit). Its a lot easier to replace the guys in the bottom half of your list than it is your best performers. Quite a few of them are more VFL than AFL. So its not so much about the total numbers as its quite easy to replace depth compared to top end quality.

It's a fair comment. I made a conscious effort to be a bit conservative in my outlook - prepare for the worst, hope for the best and all that.

My thinking is that maybe guys like Shiel and Walla are still solid contributors in what is hopefully a finals bound side, but at that age players do get injured more, are slower to recover and when they do play are not generating the output they did previously. With that in mind I figure it is sensible to plan for their exit sooner rather than later because we're going to need to find replacements at some stage and if we recruit those a year or two earlier than necessary it is hardly the end of the world. Conversely, waiting until the last minute is liable to result in the same sorts of issues with continuity we had with our rucks.

 

[Towno78]

I respect the effort made into this post but i think you've been a bit too negative. You've got every player that hits 30 falling off the proverbial cliff when there's a good to decent chance that some of them will still be good contributors and may even still be in their prime (performance wise).
I personally doubt that Tippa won't be going strong when he's 30. He has been extremely durable and he was a relatively late starter. This is his best year of his career and he's 28. Even if he lost a step he would probably still be a good contributor because of his exceptional skills and smarts.
Not sure about the assessments on Heppell or Shiel either. I'd say both will still be on the list and I'd say odds are at least one of them still performing well.

You've kind of slanted it so that every player that might not live up to their potential won't (up to and including requesting trades) but in reality you do get a mixture of wins and losses. Its a bit like how no one saw the likes of Laverde and Hind performing the way they have this year and many were doubtful on Redman too.

One good thing about the players you've listed in general though is that most of them aren't really key players to the side (let's say top 10 current performers). Probably only Tippa and Heppell (with Shiel if he was fit). Its a lot easier to replace the guys in the bottom half of your list than it is your best performers. Quite a few of them are more VFL than AFL. So its not so much about the total numbers as its quite easy to replace depth compared to top end quality.

Yeh don't understand anyone thinking Walla will drop off at 30. He's never been super quick, he relies on ridiculous skills and his evasiveness. Him making two Crows plays look silly on the boundary line on Friday before dishing off an assist exemplifies this. It was almost in slow motion, but they didn't look like laying a finger on him.

 

[Nuggs Bunny]

Unpopular opinion maybe, but I'd prefer to keep Cutler this year. We're short on wingers and he's handy depth with a good tank if nothing else.

 

[eDPS]

With the current players considered for delisting and our current draft hand for this year I would be taking 3 picks into the main draft and 1 or 2 rookie father-son prospects Wanganeen and Moore

Doesn’t matter which is picked first but I feel we need
A pure midfielder
A forward/mid
Small defender

A lot of the current best teams have an abundance of small forwards as depth with a lot having an ability to also play midfield. I wouldn’t delist Cahill as he is one of only few players we have for this role at this stage. Both Davey twins next year will be handy aswell but going into next year we need more small options, drafting a tall would be a waste and if we bring one in it should be via trade to replace Hooker or Hurley if one or both don’t go on again in 2022.

 

[Kyptastic]

With the current players considered for delisting and our current draft hand for this year I would be taking 3 picks into the main draft and 1 or 2 rookie father-son prospects Wanganeen and Moore

Doesn’t matter which is picked first but I feel we need
A pure midfielder
A forward/mid
Small defender

A lot of the current best teams have an abundance of small forwards as depth with a lot having an ability to also play midfield. I wouldn’t delist Cahill as he is one of only few players we have for this role at this stage. Both Davey twins next year will be handy aswell but going into next year we need more small options, drafting a tall would be a waste and if we bring one in it should be via trade to replace Hooker or Hurley if one or both don’t go on again in 2022.

So, four players off the main list (given Snelling has to be promoted). I’m guessing that Ambrose, Zaharakis, Johnson and Mosquito are the most in danger in your view?

 

[faible]

So, four players off the main list (given Snelling has to be promoted). I’m guessing that Ambrose, Zaharakis, Johnson and Mosquito are the most in danger in your view?

Does Johnson have any potential as a role player? He actually looked like he wasn’t a bad footballer in those VFL highlights

 

[eDPS]

So, four players off the main list (given Snelling has to be promoted). I’m guessing that Ambrose, Zaharakis, Johnson and Mosquito are the most in danger in your view?

I’d be surprised if all 4 kept their spot on the list

 

[JT_the_Man]

So, four players off the main list (given Snelling has to be promoted). I’m guessing that Ambrose, Zaharakis, Johnson and Mosquito are the most in danger in your view?

I’d honestly be shocked if any of those 4 are around next year.

Ambrose/Zaka probably retire (or are delisted - retirement sounds nicer though), I haven’t seen or heard much to suggest we should keep Johnson, and as much as I’d love to keep Mosquito it sounds like he just isn’t mentally cut out for AFL football (damn injuries).

 

[Zach Package]

Unpopular opinion maybe, but I'd prefer to keep Cutler this year. We're short on wingers and he's handy depth with a good tank if nothing else.

The question on Cutler is a different question than it was 3 weeks ago.

Durham has already proved he’s a better pure winger and suits the system better but now Cutler has actually started playing decent enough footy at half back to warrant consideration for a new deal.

As far as I’m concerned it’s now a straight shoot between Marty and Cutler because we cannot afford to cut both and to be honest, I’m still picking Marty.

A ‘list squeeze’ is a bit overstated. We’ve got one first rounder and then junk picks, I hope we use a couple of them but I highly doubt we cut *that* deep. I’ve only got 4 players being delisted at this stage, Johnson, Cutler, Zaharakis and Ambrose. Can cut those 4 without impacting depth at any position, which is great.

Mosquito 1 year deal, give 22 a crack in ‘22 and if it doesn’t work out then we part ways.

 

[Bjchan13]

I would've thought a small forward would be on the shopping list. A lot has been left to Walla this year and he'll need more help the older he gets. Mosquito fit wouldve been the perfect partner for him. Snelling and Smith should spend more time forward as we get our midfield back from injury which should help but i think theres room on the list for reinforcements.

 

[Keystone agony]

I would've thought a small forward would be on the shopping list. A lot has been left to Walla this year and he'll need more help the older he gets. Mosquito fit wouldve been the perfect partner for him. Snelling and Smith should spend more time forward as we get our midfield back from injury which should help but i think theres room on the list for reinforcements.

Lachie Schulz i hope is high on the radar

Fremantle didnt treat him that well with the list cuts last year. One of the last given a deal and was only a years deal.

Has a lot of mongrel about him which i think this group lacks and have been asking for a while

Is a victorian so a solid 2-3 year deal would be very enticing although Freo gave him a go when no one else would

 

[11kgm]

Think it's obvious
Hooker retires
Mosquito goes into the VFL delisted told to worm on it with the hopes of being redrafted
Johnson gone
Zaka Gone
Frang traded
Gleeson kept as a rookie again especially with Frang gone
Ambrose destroyed my injuries aka the pears

 

[Red Black and Blue]

Need big improvement from the lower end of the list. I think the best move for us would be to try to get another first round pick, trading our future first. Hit the later end of the draft with 2-3 more mature players. Snelling and Durham have been great additions, Parker looking great for Tigers, there is value out there, potentially a few quality delisted free agents.

 

[citizen-erased]

Need big improvement from the lower end of the list. I think the best move for us would be to try to get another first round pick, trading our future first. Hit the later end of the draft with 2-3 more mature players. Snelling and Durham have been great additions, Parker looking great for Tigers, there is value out there, potentially a few quality delisted free agents.

Brisbane will hold a couple of laters 1sts.
Could be tempting to go after 3 top 25 picks (1 top 10) vs 2x top 10ish.

 

[andleanback]

I’m happy that we likely won’t play finals, as id hate for the club to once again fall into the trap of thinking we are closer than we are. We are still a mile off competing imo and still need lots more depth coming up from underneath to be a consistently contender and enter a premiership window period. A lot of dead wood to move off the list at the end of this season. Great recruiting to get a player like Durham in the mid season draft, he’s almost a best 22 player for the wing spot and has gone flying past ham. It’ll be interesting to see how they attack the draft and trade period as we need a lot more depth, even more so as we clean out a lot of 20-35 players on the list.

 

[Zach Package]

Think yesterday was a real reality check day in a lot of ways.

Midfield group has been absolutely humming yes, but being so completely reliant on 3 players isn’t sustainable and that should still be the primary thing we need to look at bolstering. Another real top end talent and then a couple more depth types through trade or the back end of the draft.

Would also add that we’re still missing a really strong organisational presence on the last line and for all he does I don’t think that Heppell is it, mostly because he plays higher up the ground but partly because it’s just not his go.

Whether that is Hurley or Rance or someone else next year I think that needs to shift because we give away way too many easy goals due to lack of communication in the air, not having a goalkeeper on the last line and everyone getting sucked into the honeypot when there is a scramble.

18 months from now I think that player is Reid but in the interim it’s really hurting us because guys like Stewart, Lav and even Ridley just want to fly at the footy.

 

[Towno78]

Think yesterday was a real reality check day in a lot of ways.

Midfield group has been absolutely humming yes, but being so completely reliant on 3 players isn’t sustainable and that should still be the primary thing we need to look at bolstering. Another real top end talent and then a couple more depth types through trade or the back end of the draft.

Would also add that we’re still missing a really strong organisational presence on the last line and for all he does I don’t think that Heppell is it, mostly because he plays higher up the ground but partly because it’s just not his go.

Whether that is Hurley or Rance or someone else next year I think that needs to shift because we give away way too many easy goals due to lack of communication in the air, not having a goalkeeper on the last line and everyone getting sucked into the honeypot when there is a scramble.

18 months from now I think that player is Reid but in the interim it’s really hurting us because guys like Stewart, Lav and even Ridley just want to fly at the footy.

Defensive 6/7 just needa more games together. Only 2 of them played there together last year. 3 if you include Francis.
Next year they'll be better, and the year after they'll be formidable.
I think Ridley is the one most likely to be the general.
Reid maybe one day, but not from day dot. You always need experience down there first.

 

[Ambrosia]

The question on Cutler is a different question than it was 3 weeks ago.

Durham has already proved he’s a better pure winger and suits the system better but now Cutler has actually started playing decent enough footy at half back to warrant consideration for a new deal.

As far as I’m concerned it’s now a straight shoot between Marty and Cutler because we cannot afford to cut both and to be honest, I’m still picking Marty.

A ‘list squeeze’ is a bit overstated. We’ve got one first rounder and then junk picks, I hope we use a couple of them but I highly doubt we cut *that* deep. I’ve only got 4 players being delisted at this stage, Johnson, Cutler, Zaharakis and Ambrose. Can cut those 4 without impacting depth at any position, which is great.

Mosquito 1 year deal, give 22 a crack in ‘22 and if it doesn’t work out then we part ways.

Clarke is no chance of getting another deal.

 

[Towno78]

Clarke is no chance of getting another deal.

Problem is though, you could say that about 10 blokes. Yet we won't cut 10.

 

[Zach Package]

Defensive 6/7 just needa more games together. Only 2 of them played there together last year. 3 if you include Francis.
Next year they'll be better, and the year after they'll be formidable.
I think Ridley is the one most likely to be the general.
Reid maybe one day, but not from day dot. You always need experience down there first.

I think we are undersized but agree to disagree, not the biggest issue at the moment.

Clarke is no chance of getting another deal.

I’m genuinely on the fence now that he’s back and racking up footy and making better decisions for the most part

 

[Towno78]

I think we are undersized but agree to disagree, not the biggest issue at the moment.

I think we are also, for a few opponents.
But do you think we'll still be undersized when Reid joins the fold? I don't, and I am factoring him in with my comment.

 

[Ambrosia]

I’m genuinely on the fence now that he’s back and racking up footy and making better decisions for the most part

Yeah I quite like the way he goes about it but he’s friends of friends of mine. Barring a drastic change he’s gone.