Mega Thread Miscellaneous Freo Discussion thread

[Taylor]

There must be other algorithm prediction program; is Squiggle the best?

I think the best might be the consensus of betting odds. It's biblical but there is wisdom in the council of many, but more so when they have some personal stake in the outcome.

If I had an algorithm that was able to quantify the impact in games of every player across the league dialed in so well that it can accurately predict even just 80% of games I wouldn't tell anyone about it.

 

[SupermanCapes]

One more photo than the local newspaper could manage

They still only named the Weagles player despite the reigning league MVP laying the tackle...

 

[Waterhouzin]

I think the best might be the consensus of betting odds. It's biblical but there is wisdom in the council of many, but more so when they have some personal stake in the outcome.

If I had an algorithm that was able to quantify the impact in games of every player across the league dialed in so well that it can accurately predict even just 80% of games I wouldn't tell anyone about it.

This is actually scientifically proven - that the wisdom of many (I.e. statistical averages) is more accurate than the individual. 100 years ago a scientist named Galton collected all the answers from a “guess the weight of a cow” competition at a local fair - the average answer was about 1kg off the actual weight. Since then this experiment has been done numerous times with similar results. So yeah, betting odds are probably your closest answer - although skewed slightly by some fans emotional bet on their own team.
So theoretically, betting against the Pies (due to their large parochial supporter base) is probably wise!!


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[Waterhouzin]

Ps. Gamble responsibly


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[Purpletown]

Squiggle thinks we suck …….. again

View attachment 1312469


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That could almost be a photo of the ladder at the end of the 2021 season?

 

[theGav56]

This is actually scientifically proven - that the wisdom of many (I.e. statistical averages) is more accurate than the individual. 100 years ago a scientist named Galton collected all the answers from a “guess the weight of a cow” competition at a local fair - the average answer was about 1kg off the actual weight. Since then this experiment has been done numerous times with similar results. So yeah, betting odds are probably your closest answer - although skewed slightly by some fans emotional bet on their own team.
So theoretically, betting against the Pies (due to their large parochial supporter base) is probably wise!!


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Is football betting random?

Do fans impact it by betting on their team?

If the cow was owned by half the village would the 1kg have been reduced to 500g? Or would it blow out to 1.5kg?

 

[Eski3]

I think the best might be the consensus of betting odds. It's biblical but there is wisdom in the council of many, but more so when they have some personal stake in the outcome.

If I had an algorithm that was able to quantify the impact in games of every player across the league dialed in so well that it can accurately predict even just 80% of games I wouldn't tell anyone about it.

Betting odds are good for getting a baseline in terms of favouritism but are prone to reaction to bias. Pretty sure it was 2015 where we beat the line in every single game in the home and away season - simply because we are not a popular team to bet on. It's also why you should always bet against the Australian in the Australian Open

 

[dont bowl there]

Betting odds are good for getting a baseline in terms of favouritism but are prone to reaction to bias. Pretty sure it was 2015 where we beat the line in every single game in the home and away season - simply because we are not a popular team to bet on. It's also why you should always bet against the Australian in the Australian Open

Hah! Thought the same yesterday when saw Osaka was 8.50 to win the woman’s. Barty deserves to be fav but not by as much as she currently is.

On the finals odds, not many punters would have got on at this stage so the opening prices would be pretty similar to what it is now. We certainly shouldn’t be a fav to make finals.

 

[Wilksyy]

Do fans impact it by betting on their team?

Can’t speak for AFL but certainly not NFL. Betting agencies trust their algorithms they’re not looking for an even spread. It’s only when a Shark bets a large sum one way do they move the line to mitigate risk. The average $50 Punter (no matter how many) won’t impact the odds/line.

 

[Dockeroo]

There must be other algorithm prediction program; is Squiggle the best?

there is one called Jon Ralph that you can find in the herald sun, it also says we will finish bottom 5, but its normally a big crock of s**t too

 

[Daddoo]

there is one called Jon Ralph that you can find in the herald sun, it also says we will finish bottom 5, but its normally a big crock of sh*t too

Posted this article in the Top 4 thread too, but Gossage says Freo to make the 8, take it to the bank. And so it shall be.

Tim Gossage’s top 8 and guaranteed finalists for the 2022 AFL season

"Take it to the bank – they are making the eight.”

www.sen.com.au

 

[Dockeroo]

Posted this article in the Top 4 thread too, but Gossage says Freo to make the 8, take it to the bank. And so it shall be.

Tim Gossage’s top 8 and guaranteed finalists for the 2022 AFL season

"Take it to the bank – they are making the eight.”

www.sen.com.au

Gossage opinion is no better than any randomer on BF.
I don’t trust that snake. He’s probably doing that now, so then if we don’t go as well as he predicts, he can snipe away as usual at us whilst pointing to the fact that he tipped us to finish top 8 this season.

 

[Big Animal]

while everything else seems to be going well generally at Freo, the loss of covid+ players as the season starts is going to put us on the back foot with respect to the other eastern states teams. There's not really any getting around it. So this year, my expectations for W/L are still low.

 

[Bender571]

while everything else seems to be going well generally at Freo, the loss of covid+ players as the season starts is going to put us on the back foot with respect to the other eastern states teams. There's not really any getting around it. So this year, my expectations for W/L are still low.

How many Eastern states player have tested positive? I've only heard of the Sydney players in late December.

 

[CapitalA]

How many Eastern states player have tested positive? I've only heard of the Sydney players in late December.

about 50% of all the NSW, Vic, Qld teams. Around about 200 players.

 

[freodog]

while everything else seems to be going well generally at Freo, the loss of covid+ players as the season starts is going to put us on the back foot with respect to the other eastern states teams. There's not really any getting around it. So this year, my expectations for W/L are still low.

Yeh we are having a solid uninterrupted pre-season (for most players) but it may bite us if our players are struck down during the season which seems inevitable.

 

[Purple Suit]

while everything else seems to be going well generally at Freo, the loss of covid+ players as the season starts is going to put us on the back foot with respect to the other eastern states teams. There's not really any getting around it. So this year, my expectations for W/L are still low.

All teams are going to lose players at some stage so i highly doubt it will be much of a known advantage to the east coast, especially if another variant and round comes up near finals when immunity dips.

 

[maccamk]

Any Freo players likely to miss Fridays vax deadline for AFL players?


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[gaskin]

Any Freo players likely to miss Fridays vax deadline for AFL players?


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No idea. The talk the whole time from the club is that everyone will be fully vaxed by the deadline. The issue with potentially unvaxed players was coming from the blue and yellow.

 

[Wilksyy]

Any Freo players likely to miss Fridays vax deadline for AFL players?


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Nah all vaccinated.

 

[Big Animal]

Glad i didn't pay for my membership yet.

 

[vidwhal]

Exactly.. I understand with Covid fixtures are up on the air but it wouldn't be hard to progam the readers to accept cards on specific dates. But it's not about that. It's about going "environmentally friendly" and ditching plastics.

Crucially though it is a really crappy membership pack. Worst one I can recall in almost 20 years of memberships. That used to be part of the pre season excitement. Membership pack. Card, Lanyard, Pin, Fixture list on a magnet. Pen (sometimes).

Just so poor and cheap. Using the word cheap is an insult to the word cheap.

I don't follow a club for their merch. So I couldn't give a s**t. Love getting the pin though. Looks nice lined up next to my previous ones on my forever Freo scarf

 

[beelzebob]

Hello,

What boots does fyfe wear? Im pretty sure they are adidas predators but anyone know what mdoel the blakc ones are? gotta kick some goals down at masters this year and to be the best you gotta wear the best

 

[Yeti]

Hello,

What boots does fyfe wear? Im pretty sure they are adidas predators but anyone know what mdoel the blakc ones are? gotta kick some goals down at masters this year and to be the best you gotta wear the best

I wouldn't get the same boots as Fyfe if you are planning on kicking goals.....

 

[PurpleReign]

You should be asking what boots does Amiss wear.