How long until we’re back in a final and Grand Final?

[No SPIN]

Topping up is fine depending on where your list sits and which phase of its life cycle.

As I said he traded for needs AFTER the bulk of his team was drafted.

His patchwork team was to avoid the rebuild and it was shit yet you use it for a model we should follow.

Don't get me started on Geelong they are very fortunate to have had 2 genuine stars want there in Dangerfield and Cameron. Touhy was also a very good HB even at Carlton. They also picked a few from the draft that have done well at their picks.

Topping up while winning 4 flags sounds like a good formula to me, even if it means a deep rebuild eventually.
The need for a deep rebuild does not negate the success of the Clarkson’s topping up approach.

And as I said previously. Rich and Melb, had strings of failed rebuilds before finally winning flags, proving the Model is far from fool proof.

 

[loki04]

Topping up while winning 4 flags sounds like a good formula to me, even if it means a deep rebuild eventually.
The need for a deep rebuild does not negate the success of the topping up approach.
And as I said previously Rich and Melb, had strings of failed rebuilds before finally winning flags, proving the Model is far from fool proof.

Mate what are you on about?

He topped up after he built the list with a deep rebuild before even 1 flag, then dropped after a premiership hang over, he topped up a gain for needs there was no need to rebuild as they had done that already.

He did not go into a traditional deep rebuild after his multiple flag run ended. Instead he tried to do it the way you are stating and build a list through trades, bit role players and the dregs of his old list. The bulk of the talent gone, how did it end? They didn't go for the deep rebuild until he was pushed aside for Mitchell.

Your insinuation he won multiple flags through building a patchwork team (which he did after and duly went to the bottom 4) is crap. The deep rebuild started after he failed to put together a you don't need to bottom out rebuild through trades and role types which sent the club into free fall and ended his time at Hawks.

 

[loki04]

I posted this elsewhere but for all the players dramas, politics, injuries & controversies, we are level most to player GFs since 2000 and had we beaten GWS in the "shock" of the century, we would be 1 up on any team, amazing to think given 4 teams had a so called dynasty with 3-4 flags since 2000.

Lol it is a good effort and I don't want to be that guy but ...well let's hang our hats on being perennial brides maids like the geelong of 80s and 90s.

Leave Hawks to continue emulating the pies of 1900 to 1950s that they said they will be in the oncoming half century (which history shows them successfullydoing).

 

[jmac70]

It's more than feasible that we could make the finals this year, I didn't think so a month ago but if we can get dean and Carmichael playing regular football and hopefully Johnson, then who knows

Three players yet to play an AFL game hold the key to us making finals?

 

[barrackers]

Last part of your post is my whole point, we have had the undercurrent come through to have a sustained run.

Hawks had built it through draft but weren't expecting to flag so fast in 08. Also every club has senior players not sure your point with that?

My point is we have a limited window while our best players, which also happen to be our senior players are still playing otherwise it’s going to be at least a 5-6 year wait.

We have 14 players over 26 (9 clear best 22 and not readily replaced) and then a significant gap, albeit not completely empty, to the large under 22 group. That senior core is not too dissimilar to the ‘07 pies or ‘08 hawks.

The ‘07 pies prelim side seen Buckley, Clement (2007), Burns, Wakelin (2008) and Bryan, Rocca (2009) retire before our flag in 2010. While Lockyer, Medhurst, O’Bree and Fraser (who missed the prelim) were all overtaken in 2010.

‘08 hawks Crawford, Croad (2008), Campbell, Dew (2009), Brown (GC), Williams, and Renouf (PA), Ladson (2011) weren’t on their list in their next GF year. With Bateman, Gilham and Osborne surpassed in 2012.

 

[loki04]

My point is we have a limited window while our best players, which also happen to be our senior players are still playing otherwise it’s going to be at least a 5-6 year wait.

We have 14 players over 26 (9 clear best 22 and not readily replaced) and then a significant gap, albeit not completely empty, to the large under 22 group. That senior core is not too dissimilar to the ‘07 pies or ‘08 hawks.

The ‘07 pies prelim side seen Buckley, Clement (2007), Burns, Wakelin (2008) and Bryan, Rocca (2009) retire before our flag in 2010. While Lockyer, Medhurst, O’Bree and Fraser (who missed the prelim) were all overtaken in 2010.

‘08 hawks Crawford, Croad (2008), Campbell, Dew (2009), Brown (GC), Williams, and Renouf (PA), Ladson (2011) weren’t on their list in their next GF year. With Bateman, Gilham and Osborne surpassed in 2012.

A big bodied hard midfield will put us to the sword like Dogs did come finals, all you are doing is weakening the draft hand and delaying how long it will take to bounce back properly.

07 and 08 pies Hawks both had multiple years down low in quality drafts getting top draft picks.
We are not yet in that position.

 

[jmac70]

We have won more games of footy than any other club.
That’s the Collingwood way.

 

[barrackers]

A big bodied hard midfield will put us to the sword like Dogs did come finals, all you are doing is weakening the draft hand and delaying how long it will take to bounce back properly.

07 and 08 pies Hawks both had multiple years down low in quality drafts getting top draft picks.
We are not yet in that position.

Playing devils advocate… if we’re not contending in the next few years do we move on some of our senior players while they still have value and drop down for a couple of years? DeGoey is the obvious one, but while I wouldn’t trade them Adams, Elliott and Mihocek would also hold value. Grundy too, but his contract would lessen any trade return.

 

[No SPIN]

But he got his reputation off a team who built through the draft then traded for needs.
When he had to rebuild he went your route described and shat the bed, Hawks were shit after they lost all the drafted talents even under the greatest coach in a generation with a patchwork team.

Richmond won 3 flags contended for 6 years or more. Worth the wait.

Melbourne won one and look a strong chance to go back 2 back, will contend for years to come barring anything drastic happening.

Carlton rebuilt off draft sanctions poor drafting and development programs still made finals under Judd.
Reloaded a few times since but look to be getting the mix right.

If you are asking supporters to have faith in the Rich and Melb process which took decades to produce results, I think you have sadly miscalculated.

As I said earlier, give me competent list, trading and salary cap management and success will follow without bottoming out - AND with far greater chance of success than rebuilds.

Rebuilding is a lottery as Rich and Melb’s decades in the wilderness attest.

 

[Pistol Night]

I’m still not over the most recent heartbreak. Give it a bit

 

[No SPIN]

A big bodied hard midfield will put us to the sword like Dogs did come finals, all you are doing is weakening the draft hand and delaying how long it will take to bounce back properly.

07 and 08 pies Hawks both had multiple years down low in quality drafts getting top draft picks.
We are not yet in that position.

You are assuming we are permanently saddled with under sized mids - our kids will be bigger and stronger in 2023 and close the gaps with WB mids.
So bottoming out based on this argument makes no sense.

 

[jc37]

We have a very small window (this year and next) that requires luck with injuries at the moment but our best 22 at the moment is better than the 2018 finals side. I think the luck side is we are bringing in young players around the likes of Pendles and a culture that has been well coached under Bucks so Macrae is adding to things rather than having to build that part.
We are getting games into 18-22 year olds which helps. Interesting to see where things are in 2024.

 

[jmac70]

I’m still not over the most recent heartbreak. Give it a bit

This is the thing. Being a Pies fan hurts because we keep presenting. Wouldn’t surprise to see us get to another Grand Final against the odds.
One of these days we will get some luck.

 

[Gone Critical]

Long shot, but if we’re back making finals this season on the back of the contributions/performance of Dean, Carmichael and Johnson, our window swings back open.

Would be absolutely huge, but also incredibly unlikely.

Agree with the sentiment here. We are a chance for finals this year based on the good performance of our experienced older core. If we keep playing relatively mature and experienced teams in 2022 we might make finals but it may not help with long term development and having a sustained run at success. I suspect that sustained run is probably 5+ years away unless we outperform with the younger part of the list we now have.

Few interesting stats on our 22's being put out this year. All our 22's have averaged over 25 years and only once have we dipped below an average of 90 games per player. I did a comparison between us and Carlton and NM then added Freo to the mix. Our youngest and least experienced 22 this year is older and more experienced than every team NM and Carl have put out this year. Some posters have claimed this is skewed by outliers like Pendles. Still North have Goldstein, Ziebell and Greenwood playing each week. 2 weeks ago Freo put out a 22 with an average age of 23y 7 months and 65 games despite Mundy and Walters in the 22.

The interesting and tricky part of Flys current coaching is how does he transition the youth in. Currently he has stayed very conservative and I think that's wise. I think its fairly likely we see a dip in performance in the next couple of seasons while he brings in more youngsters.

 

[loki04]

Playing devils advocate… if we’re not contending in the next few years do we move on some of our senior players while they still have value and drop down for a couple of years? DeGoey is the obvious one, but while I wouldn’t trade them Adams, Elliott and Mihocek would also hold value. Grundy too, but his contract would lessen any trade return.

I don't think you want to move too many on, maybe 1 or 2 and none from the mid age group.

Experience is necessary to teach and guide, Melbourne showed us that on their rebuild under Neeld. They sold the whole farm.

It needs to be done balanced, just a youth focus say over fringe and role players who'd typically get the nod in in contention for consistency of work rate over inconsistent junior talent.

 

[loki04]

You are assuming we are permanently saddled with under sized mids - our kids will be bigger and stronger in 2023 and close the gaps with WB mids.
So bottoming out based on this argument makes no sense.

Well considering it was in response to 2022 finals they aren't getting that big.

Also our kids need more then 1 preseason.

2025 will see Reef Daicos Henry etc having better and stronger afl builds.
ATM how much of them are even kids vs wb? we had Crisp, Adams and T.Brown, then Degoey Lipinski rotating and c.brown pendles and sidebum at stages.

 

[jonbe54]

Agree with the sentiment here. We are a chance for finals this year based on the good performance of our experienced older core. If we keep playing relatively mature and experienced teams in 2022 we might make finals but it may not help with long term development and having a sustained run at success. I suspect that sustained run is probably 5+ years away unless we outperform with the younger part of the list we now have.

Few interesting stats on our 22's being put out this year. All our 22's have averaged over 25 years and only once have we dipped below an average of 90 games per player. I did a comparison between us and Carlton and NM then added Freo to the mix. Our youngest and least experienced 22 this year is older and more experienced than every team NM and Carl have put out this year. Some posters have claimed this is skewed by outliers like Pendles. Still North have Goldstein, Ziebell and Greenwood playing each week. 2 weeks ago Freo put out a 22 with an average age of 23y 7 months and 65 games despite Mundy and Walters in the 22.

The interesting and tricky part of Flys current coaching is how does he transition the youth in. Currently he has stayed very conservative and I think that's wise. I think its fairly likely we see a dip in performance in the next couple of seasons while he brings in more youngsters.

It really is a balancing act between giving the youngest players the opportunity to play senior football surrounded by enough senior players to learn from and protect them and seeing enough youngsters get opportunities.

I'm prepared to wait until the end of the season to postpone listening to loud mouthed and uninformed opinions.

 

[loki04]

If you are asking supporters to have faith in the Rich and Melb process which took decades to produce results, I think you have sadly miscalculated.

As I said earlier, give me competent list, trading and salary cap management and success will follow without bottoming out - AND with far greater chance of success than rebuilds.

Rebuilding is a lottery as Rich and Melb’s decades in the wilderness attest.

Show me a team that has done it your way! Zero. None. Not a single one. Your confidence is based off nothing other then some teams doing it that way have stayed finals relevant.

Currently Geelong may if cards fall their way pull it off.
They have been fortunate to have a real home ground adv, they have been fortunate to land some high end talent through relative cheap trades Danger Cameron Touhy etc.
They have also done well with the picks they got from trading players out.

Every single team who has won a flag has done it with the nucleus being built through the draft and with decent picks whether through bottoming out or fortunate father sons that they got cheap under old rules.

Short cuts to success very rarely in anything in life pay off long term. Yours fits the bill.

 

[GoldenMagpie16]

Why don't we do a rebuild on the run.

 

[No SPIN]

Well considering it was in response to 2022 finals they aren't getting that big.

Also our kids need more then 1 preseason.

2025 will see Reef Daicos Henry etc having better and stronger afl builds.
ATM how much of them are even kids vs wb? we had Crisp, Adams and T.Brown, then Degoey Lipinski rotating and c.brown pendles and sidebum at stages.

You made the claim our “kids” will be put to the sword by WB mids. So are you now saying we don’t have kids to worry about, given the players you’ve listed?
I’m really not sure what point your making about being put to the sword.

 

[No SPIN]

Show me a team that has done it your way! Zero. None. Not a single one. Your confidence is based off nothing other then some teams doing it that way have stayed finals relevant.

Currently Geelong may if cards fall their way pull it off.
They have been fortunate to have a real home ground adv, they have been fortunate to land some high end talent through relative cheap trades Danger Cameron Touhy etc.
They have also done well with the picks they got from trading players out.

Every single team who has won a flag has done it with the nucleus being built through the draft and with decent picks whether through bottoming out or fortunate father sons that they got cheap under old rules.

Short cuts to success very rarely in anything in life pay off long term. Yours fits the bill.

Success after decades in the wilderness as seen with Rich and Melb, is not a recipe that any sensible Club is going to adopt.
Not sure what you don’t get when I say capable list, trade and salary cap management beats the uncertainty of bottoming out every day of the week.
Bottoming out is a lottery, which Clarkson understands.

Anyway we’ll just have to agree to disagree.
Have a good night.

 

[domus]

Bucks says our worst years are yet to come. I don't agree. I think Pendles and Howe have another two or three years ahead of them. Grundy still has a number of good years in him as does Cameron. In that time we hopefully pick up McStay and one or two other handy trades or draft picks and see further improvement from Maynard, Moore, Henry, Noble, Quaynor, J and N Daicos, DeGoey, Murphy, Kreuger and those who are currently on the cusp- Dean, Reef, Tyler, Beau, Ash Johnson, Begg and Ruscoe and we could remain a very solid team in the finals mix.

 

[No SPIN]

Bucks says our worst years are yet to come. I don't agree. I think Pendles and Howe have another two or three years ahead of them. Grundy still has a number of good years in him as does Cameron. In that time we hopefully pick up McStay and one or two other handy trades or draft picks and see further improvement from Maynard, Moore, Henry, Noble, Quaynor, J and N Daicos, DeGoey, Murphy, Kreuger and those who are currently on the cusp- Dean, Reef, Tyler, Beau, Ash Johnson, Begg and Ruscoe and we could remain a very solid team in the finals mix.

I suspect Bucks is focusing on the importance of leadership. Pendles and others will be hard to replace.

I remember when Maxy and Swan, retired, the ship was a bit wobbly for a while as new leaders emerged.

So IMO Buck is not necessarily talking about the talent depth at the club.

 

[PieLebo87]

Good to see some healthy discussions being had. My intention with this was to share some interesting stats, more so than to make any bold proclamations.

In saying that, I don’t agree that there is a textbook way of rebuilding a team to contend for a flag. You don’t necessarily have to ‘bottom out’, and I’d love to see how many of the recent dynasty teams have had a plethora of top 10 draft picks lead them to the promise land.

As with anything in footy, a lot of luck has to go your way, but I don’t believe Collingwood is as far off as some may be led to believe.

I like the comparison being made to our ‘07 side being a mixture of the ‘02-‘03 contenders with youngsters who got us over the line in ‘10 - the comparison to Hawthorn’s ‘08 winning it early… we’re more than capable of replicating something similar (with some luck) based on this year’s form and the way Fly has got the players playing.

I struggle to have a clear BOG each week nowadays which is an indication that we’re a role-based team now, so personnel is less important (still very important, don’t get me wrong) and if we can add in 2-3 elite kids over the next 2 off seasons, with astute trading/FA, we’ll be right back in contention again.

 

[loki04]

Bucks says our worst years are yet to come. I don't agree. I think Pendles and Howe have another two or three years ahead of them. Grundy still has a number of good years in him as does Cameron. In that time we hopefully pick up McStay and one or two other handy trades or draft picks and see further improvement from Maynard, Moore, Henry, Noble, Quaynor, J and N Daicos, DeGoey, Murphy, Kreuger and those who are currently on the cusp- Dean, Reef, Tyler, Beau, Ash Johnson, Begg and Ruscoe and we could remain a very solid team in the finals mix.

Buckley is 100% correct.

Some of you guys live in a dream land with where our list sits.