How long until we’re back in a final and Grand Final?

[PieLebo87]

Nothing here is opinion based. Purely sharing facts with the army.

In Collingwood’s 125 years of existence, we’ve only gone more than 3 seasons without finals on 3 occasions. More than 4 seasons, twice. More than 5 seasons, once!

As you’d be aware, we average a GF every 3-4 years. In our long history, we’ve only gone more than 4 seasons without a GF 6 times.



Light at the end of the tunnel or a lazy, cold Saturday morning looking at stats?

 

[manicpie]

It's more than feasible that we could make the finals this year, I didn't think so a month ago but if we can get dean and Carmichael playing regular football and hopefully Johnson, then who knows

 

[PieLebo87]

It's more than feasible that we could make the finals this year, I didn't think so a month ago but if we can get dean and Carmichael playing regular football and hopefully Johnson, then who knows

Long shot, but if we’re back making finals this season on the back of the contributions/performance of Dean, Carmichael and Johnson, our window swings back open.

Would be absolutely huge, but also incredibly unlikely.

 

[Quicky]

How longs a piece of string? The competitions harder these days. Equalisation and more teams means I don't think we can expect to make it as often as we once did. Hopefully we can start converting better. But we're a strong chance to make finals this year and that's the first step.

 

[PieLebo87]

How longs a piece of string? The competitions harder these days. Equalisation and more teams means I don't think we can expect to make it as often as we once did. Hopefully we can start converting better. But we're a strong chance to make finals this year and that's the first step.

You’re not wrong. A couple of those streaks in each are from the last 20 years.

 

[HFF]

How longs a piece of string? The competitions harder these days. Equalisation and more teams means I don't think we can expect to make it as often as we once did. Hopefully we can start converting better. But we're a strong chance to make finals this year and that's the first step.

Don’t forget the fixture
We double up against the defending champs and Geelong who are top 4 standard…and we are coming from second last….I thought we were supposed to get the softer draw based on the leagues formula?

 

[Markfs]

reminds me of that info you get from websites when you try to determine what superannuation to get..... returns from investment in the past give no indication of what might happen in the future....

 

[barrackers]

Of our 11 players aged 28 or above only Cox, Sidebottom, Hoskin-Elliott and Madgen are either on the edge of the best 22 or relatively easily replaced. That still leaves us with a lot of reliance on the other 7. Arguably our most important two players in DeGoey and Moore are 26. Free agency can change things, but realistically if we’re not contending in the next 2-3 years then it could be double that. A lot depends on how quickly and to what extent our under 22 group develop.

Probably the question becomes is our current list capable of a 2007 like season where the remnants of the 02/03 team and the foundation of the 10/11 team came within a kick or 15 seconds of beating the clear flag favourites and gaining a grand final berth.

34 - Pendlebury
31 - Cox, Howe, Sidebottom
29 - Elliott, Mihocek
28 - Adams, Crisp, Grundy, Hoskin-Elliott, Madgen
26 - Cameron, DeGoey, Moore

 

[loki04]

Long shot, but if we’re back making finals this season on the back of the contributions/performance of Dean, Carmichael and Johnson, our window swings back open.

Would be absolutely huge, but also incredibly unlikely.

Pinch a flag over building for sustained success...hate that route tbh.

2010 was built off drafting and then trading in needs when the bulk of the list was set in place. Ball Jolly et el.

Why people are so obsessed with hit and run style flag builds, that if it goes south, has you 10 plus years in the wilderness and realistically a very low chance to even win one.

 

[loki04]

How longs a piece of string? The competitions harder these days. Equalisation and more teams means I don't think we can expect to make it as often as we once did. Hopefully we can start converting better. But we're a strong chance to make finals this year and that's the first step.

You think we have acquired enough low talent to be a threat over 4 to 5 seasons and genuine top 2 or so team?

Lol we literally dipped for a season.

 

[Quicky]

You think we have acquired enough low talent to be a threat over 4 to 5 seasons and genuine top 2 or so team?

Lol we literally dipped for a season.

I didn't make a comment on that beyond we're in a position to make finals this year and that's the first step. You've really taken a leap to interpret what you have from my post.

 

[pablo disco bar]

2028

 

[jimmy35]

Don’t forget the fixture
We double up against the defending champs and Geelong who are top 4 standard…and we are coming from second last….I thought we were supposed to get the softer draw based on the leagues formula?

Except of course when the leagues formula enables greater gate takings for them to pilfer in on.

 

[No SPIN]

Pinch a flag over building for sustained success...hate that route tbh.

2010 was built off drafting and then trading in needs when the bulk of the list was set in place. Ball Jolly et el.

Why people are so obsessed with hit and run style flag builds, that if it goes south, has you 10 plus years in the wilderness and realistically a very low chance to even win one.

Carlton have at least 3 rebuilds Melb and Rich at least that many before getting out of the wilderness.
Rebuilds are no guarantee of success - give me astute trading, list and salary cap management any day.

When the greatest Coach in a generation chooses to effectively shun the draft then that’s instructive -Clarkson is not a fool.

 

[barrackers]

Pinch a flag over building for sustained success...hate that route tbh.

2010 was built off drafting and then trading in needs when the bulk of the list was set in place. Ball Jolly et el.

Why people are so obsessed with hit and run style flag builds, that if it goes south, has you 10 plus years in the wilderness and realistically a very low chance to even win one.

The hawks of 08 showed what we couldn’t quite do in 07. Pinch a flag with a mix senior players near the end and the next group that had been built via draft/trade. Currently we have the senior players, but I’m not sure if we yet have enough talent/development in the next group coming though.

 

[jonbe54]

You’re not wrong. A couple of those streaks in each are from the last 20 years.

Of course that has nothing to do with the expansion into the AFL does it?

The fact that the amount of teams in the comp jumped 50% could surely have nothing to do with it.

rollseyes.gif

 

[stormskye]

I’d prefer the title to be “win”

 

[loki04]

Carlton have at least 3 rebuilds Melb and Rich at least that many before getting out of the wilderness.
Rebuilds are no guarantee of success - give me astute trading, list and salary cap management any day.

When the greatest Coach in a generation chooses to effectively shun the draft then that’s instructive -Clarkson is not a fool.

But he got his reputation off a team who built through the draft then traded for needs.
When he had to rebuild he went your route described and shat the bed, Hawks were s**t after they lost all the drafted talents even under the greatest coach in a generation with a patchwork team.

Richmond won 3 flags contended for 6 years or more. Worth the wait.

Melbourne won one and look a strong chance to go back 2 back, will contend for years to come barring anything drastic happening.

Carlton rebuilt off draft sanctions poor drafting and development programs still made finals under Judd.
Reloaded a few times since but look to be getting the mix right.

 

[Linda Lovelace]

We are in for close to a decade of misery. The list is in an absolutely disgraceful state and things will get much worse before they can get better.

By the time we bring in and then develop enough genuine young talent, it's not just our currently old players who will have been sent to the nursing home, but our currently mid-20s range senior players too.

We need to take the wise approach of not trading everything, although we definitely need to get rid of Grundy for whatever we can get and accept paying him to play elsewhere like Treloar. The kids need to develop alongside some senior players and not be subjected to North Melbourne-style demoralization. But this means drawing out the rebuild process for a much longer time.

If you look at the current crop of youth we've got and think we've got some sort of nucleus of a future flag, you're absolutely kidding yourself. We need to spend a long time at the bottom yet.

 

[No SPIN]

But he got his reputation off a team who built through the draft then traded for needs.
When he had to rebuild he went your route described and shat the bed, Hawks were s**t after they lost all the drafted talents even under the greatest coach in a generation with a patchwork team.

He topped up continually during his success - so there is no arguments about his approach.
If you eventually need a deep rebuild after that amazing run of success, then so be it.
It’s definitely not a reason to suggest topping up is the wrong approach.

 

[JB1975]

Finals--in a little while.

Grand Final--a bit longer.

Premiership--more than a bit longer. Hopefully before the time I expire, maybe just after I start taking strange delight in crapping my pants and watching other people do damage control.

Here's hoping.

 

[loki04]

He topped up continually during his success - so there is no arguments about his approach.
If you eventually need a deep rebuild after that amazing run of success, then so be it.
It’s definitely not a reason to suggest topping up is the wrong approach.

Topping up is fine depending on where your list sits and which phase of its life cycle.

As I said he traded for needs AFTER the bulk of his team was drafted.

His patchwork team was to avoid the rebuild and it was s**t yet you use it for a model we should follow.

Don't get me started on Geelong they are very fortunate to have had 2 genuine stars want there in Dangerfield and Cameron. Touhy was also a very good HB even at Carlton. They also picked a few from the draft that have done well at their picks.

 

[loki04]

The hawks of 08 showed what we couldn’t quite do in 07. Pinch a flag with a mix senior players near the end and the next group that had been built via draft/trade. Currently we have the senior players, but I’m not sure if we yet have enough talent/development in the next group coming though.

Last part of your post is my whole point, we have not had the undercurrent come through to have a sustained run.

Hawks had built it through draft but weren't expecting to flag so fast in 08. Also every club has senior players not sure your point with that?

 

[loki04]

I didn't make a comment on that beyond we're in a position to make finals this year and that's the first step. You've really taken a leap to interpret what you have from my post.

Well when you it's the first step I assumed you meant that you saw it as a good long term result and there would be follow up steps in more finals and gf's etc.

 

[legendstatus]

I posted this elsewhere but for all the players dramas, politics, injuries & controversies, we are level most to player GFs since 2000 and had we beaten GWS in the "shock" of the century, we would be 1 up on any team, amazing to think given 4 teams had a so called dynasty with 3-4 flags since 2000.