Will we make finals?

[bresker]

We let the better teams get off the leash and score multiple goals quickly, in bursts .

 

[doggies ftw]

We let the better teams get off the leash and score multiple goals quickly, in bursts .

Unfortunately we let even the worse teams in the comp kick multiple goals on us quickly.

Norf kicked 5 in 13 mins, wce and ess cut us up at times, it’s a real concern

 

[Doggy]

Unfortunately we let even the worse teams in the comp kick multiple goals on us quickly.

Norf kicked 5 in 13 mins, wce and ess cut us up at times, it’s a real concern

All teams do .. even Melbourne.

It's not as if this is a dogs thing

 

[doggies ftw]

All teams do .. even Melbourne.

It's not as if this is a dogs thing

Well yes of course all teams do at times but we’re much much worse - hence us being dead last for scores against from fwd 50 transitions, and a huge difference to the teams we should be competing with - Lions, Geelong, Melb, Freo, Sydney. This shows how easy we’re allowing the ball to transition from forward 50 to defence compared to other teams.

 

[dogwatch]

Well yes of course all teams do at times but we’re much much worse - hence us being dead last for scores against from fwd 50 transitions, and a huge difference to the teams we should be competing with - Lions, Geelong, Melb, Freo, Sydney. This shows how easy we’re allowing the ball to transition from forward 50 to defence compared to other teams.

View attachment 1433618

Playing Brisbane should be a joy to behold then.

 

[doggies ftw]

Playing Brisbane should be a joy to behold then.

Yeah bit of a worry - although I was worried about Friday night as Hawks are also one of the teams that bases their game around attacking from HB through the corridor - and whilst I don’t have the stats it didn’t seem like we did too badly against them. But we absolutely dominated them around the ball after qtr time, it’s probably more of an issue when you’re up against teams who are more competitive with their midfield against ours.

Also I’ll add I understand we set up very aggressively so you’re going to have to accept being cut up a little bit more than teams who set up more defensively - just I don’t think we have the balance right here at all and it’s just way too easy at times and it’s a big problem that’s really holding us back atm.

Need to sort it out, how we do that well I don’t have the answers, I’d like to see some changes though - even if it just means taking a less aggressive approach at times when the other teams well on top and just playing to arrest momentum a little bit more than just going all out for the whole game and expecting things to change

 

[Al dente]

Well yes of course all teams do at times but we’re much much worse - hence us being dead last for scores against from fwd 50 transitions, and a huge difference to the teams we should be competing with - Lions, Geelong, Melb, Freo, Sydney. This shows how easy we’re allowing the ball to transition from forward 50 to defence compared to other teams.

View attachment 1433618

i know there will be a number of factors causing this, but you have to suspect that the 'outside 5' tactic is a big part of it.
id like to see the correlation between goals conceded from D50 and use of the 'outside 5' across all teams.

 

[doggies ftw]

i know there will be a number of factors causing this, but you have to suspect that the 'outside 5' tactic is a big part of it.
id like to see the correlation between goals conceded from D50 and use of the 'outside 5' across all teams.

I agree this would definitely be one factor - would like to see some stats on the argument either way but not really sure which ones. I don’t believe any team really does the outside 5 to the extent of us so not sure how much relevance we can get from other teams. If we ever stop doing it it’d be nice to compare how we travel afterwards.

Surely we’ve seen enough now to know this doesn’t work

 

[Al dente]

I agree this would definitely be one factor - would like to see some stats on the argument either way but not really sure which ones. I don’t believe any team really does the outside 5 to the extent of us so not sure how much relevance we can get from other teams. If we ever stop doing it it’d be nice to compare how we travel afterwards.

Surely we’ve seen enough now to know this doesn’t work

one indicator would be our ranking last year compared to this year

 

[Oliver G]

Expected score ladder at the end of R15, we're ranked 1st for scoring and 6th for defending...

 

[Next Waiting]

A lot of the discussion seems to be "what a terrible year to stuff it up - very open comp - if only we could have made the finals we'd have given it a real shake - what a lost opportunity" etc etc.

To me this seems flawed logic. If we're going to be such a decent chance to win four games in September surely we are near certs to knock off at least three of the big shots we have to play over the next 6 weeks? That just leaves GWS and Hawthorn, so add those two (no gimmes I'll admit but they are games we should be winning) and there's your 13 wins.

I'm upbeat ... as long as we don't get another run of injuries to senior players. We're already playing well and while I'm not confident about the Brisbane game we will have the following to return after that - Hunter, English, McLean, Bruce, Bailey Smith and Richards. Bring them in for whoever you reckon our bottom 6 are and we're only going to get better. Potentially much better.

Here's the run home to save you looking it up:

Brisbane (A)​

Sydney (A)​

St Kilda (MS)​

Melbourne (MS)​

Geelong (A)​

Frem (MS)​

GWS (MS)​

Haw (UTAS)​

​

Summary: we should be able to get 5 wins and a place in the finals easily. 6 or even 7 wins is not out of the question if we hit top form and that might give us an outside chance at the top 4.
If we can't beat 3 of those 6 sides in contention then there's no point us playing finals anyway because we obviously wouldn't be good enough.

Been playing around on the ladder predictor and on 13 wins I can find only 1 realistic scenario where we scrape into the 8....in 8th. We rely on GC, Swans and Carlton beating the Pies to make that work. Sydney Pies is massive in Rnd 22 and Pies Carlton in Rnd 23.

I'm nearly prepared to go "You'll need an historical 14 wins to make the 8 this year...bookmark it"

 

[doggies ftw]

one indicator would be our ranking last year compared to this year

Yeah good point - Oliver Gigacz would you have access to how we were ranked for points against from forward 50 for last year if it’s not too much trouble?

 

[dogwatch]

Been playing around on the ladder predictor and on 13 wins I can find only 1 realistic scenario where we scrape into the 8....in 8th. We rely on GC, Swans and Carlton beating the Pies to make that work. Sydney Pies is massive in Rnd 22 and Pies Carlton in Rnd 23.

I'm nearly prepared to go "You'll need an historical 14 wins to make the 8 this year...bookmark it"

We’ll yes it’ll happen some year … so why not this one?

However there’s always an upset or two that messes up the predictor calculations.

 

[Oliver G]

Yeah good point - Oliver Gigacz would you have access to how we were ranked for points against from forward 50 for last year if it’s not too much trouble?

Points Sourced From D50 - For / Against (2021 H&A)...


Points Sourced From D50 - For / Against (2022 H&A)...

 

[Next Waiting]

Bet you've gone ultra negative to get there as well

I'm not sure what your saying

The way I see it, we can have 2 more losses (14 wins) and almost certainly make it but neither of those losses can be against Sydney or Freo.

3 losses (13 wins), and we could but probably won't because our competitors for 8th spot (mainly Pies and Sydney) have a better run home (on paper). The wheels would have to fall right off Freo and Carlton now for them to miss.

IMO, the most significant and looming 8 shaping contests that affect/impact us but don't involve us are

Rnd 16: Suns v Pies
Rnd 18: Blues v Cats and Dockers v Swans
Rnd 22: Pies v Swans
Rnd 23: Pies v Blues

 

[X_box_X]

Here's what I've come up with. Crazy to think two teams miss finals here with a 13-9 record.




If we do finish with a 13-9 record, then results have to go our way.

FWIW, I had us losing to Brisbane, Geelong and Melbourne.

 

[doggies ftw]

Points Sourced From D50 - For / Against (2021 H&A)...
View attachment 1433813

Points Sourced From D50 - For / Against (2022 H&A)...
View attachment 1433814

Thanks mate - so 10th overall and a hell of a lot closer to the top teams, compared to outright 18th and a huge difference to the top few teams.

Wasn’t a strength for us last year either but considering the way we set up the ground is exactly the same, personnel is pretty much the same and the only real change has been the outside 5, it’s obviously one factor contributing to it.

Also considering how quick teams are to emulate successful tactics it’s pretty telling no one else has decided to copy this to the extent we do it

 

[Doggy]

I'm not sure what your saying

The way I see it, we can have 2 more losses (14 wins) and almost certainly make it but neither of those losses can be against Sydney or Freo.

3 losses (13 wins), and we could but probably won't because our competitors for 8th spot (mainly Pies and Sydney) have a better run home (on paper). The wheels would have to fall right off Freo and Carlton now for them to miss.

IMO, the most significant and looming 8 shaping contests that affect/impact us but don't involve us are

Rnd 16: Suns v Pies
Rnd 18: Blues v Cats and Dockers v Swans
Rnd 22: Pies v Swans
Rnd 23: Pies v Blues

I don't care if we miss out but frankly I'm pretty over the negative bullshit on here

 

[Next Waiting]

We’ll yes it’ll happen some year … so why not this one?

However there’s always an upset or two that messes up the predictor calculations.

That is true. The upsets could come in local derbys where 2 basket cases get up for one game to rain on the parade of a finals aspirant. Pies v Bombres in Rnd 19 and West Coast v Freo in Rnd 22

 

[Next Waiting]

I don't care if we miss out but frankly I'm pretty over the negative bullshit on here

I fail to see how any of what I've posted is negative

 

[Doggy]

That is true. The upsets could come in local derbys where 2 basket cases get up for one game to rain on the parade of a finals aspirant. Pies v Bombres in Rnd 19 and West Coast v Freo in Rnd 22

Plastics seem to go ok against Shitney ..

 

[Next Waiting]

Here's what I've come up with. Crazy to think two teams miss finals here with a 13-9 record.

View attachment 1433829


If we do finish with a 13-9 record, then results have to go our way.

FWIW, I had us losing to Brisbane, Geelong and Melbourne.

Very close to what I had. But, if we beat Brisbane, and they did look sh1tful the other night, it tips the scales in favour of us making it...I think.

As DW posted previously, too many teams have been able to fill their boots against Norf, West Coast, Bombers and Adelaide. It's paved the way for top 8 history to be made.

 

[Next Waiting]

Plastics seem to go ok against Shitney ..

 

[Optimistic Dog]

So far Bailey's indiscretions have not cost us for his Liverpool kiss on Tuohy. Butt it remains to be seen if his white line error will cost us a victory against the lions or the swans or both. I suspect we need to win at least one of these games to make it.

 

[BIG_BONTS]

It’ll be tough but we will beat the lions