List Mgmt. 2023 Trade & List Management Thread III

[R00StaR]

Can someone explain the logic of a pick being worth less because it will be pushed back by F/S and Academy?

Just seems like an obsession with the overall number.

They're not players you have access to anyway, so why does it matter where they're taken?

If you have pick 10, and the draft goes Pick 1, 8x Father Sons, Pick 10, then you, you're still getting the Third best AVAILABLE player, same as if it went Pick 1, Pick 2, You, 7x Father Sons.

The only benefit you gain is being able to bid on F/S/Academy which by the draft you basically already know whether someone is committed to drafting a player that is expected to go in the first round.

Thats how i look at it also, but there could be more of an argument for the father sons. At least with the academy picks they're in growth markets where may never have been on draft boards otherwise.

 

[ohmygewd]

A beautiful impasse that it is Mop.

You're right - no chance that WC give up the best 18 year old since Haydn Bunton without two top 10 picks. The joint would implode.

We won't be giving up 2 and 3 and our later first rounders won't get us an upgrade and if it did we'd keep it anyway.

There'll be no multi club deal that delivers pick 1 to another Club.

It's over.

 

[Joshen]

Wonder if we turn to Melbourne for a mutually beneficial deal.

Pick 3 for Pick 6 and 11 with a small sweetener.

We offer Pick 2 and 6 for Pick 1 and 23.

End up with 1,6,15,17,18,23

Guess it depends how close the top 6-7 are




Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

I'd do this but want to keep 11.

I think 1, 6 and 11 is preferable to 2 and 3.

 

[trooroo4life]

We're at the point now I thought we wouldn't get to until much later. I literally predicted this very offer. I myself would take it if the return pick aspect was removed. I think at this point Brady Rawlings would accept that. I know amongst our supporters I'm in the minority.

Unless you can work some magic to turn two of those picks into something earlier, I reckon the impasse is here. Get rid of the pick back to you and it's a perfectly reasonable deal.

Still might yet happen too, though.

As I mentioned yesterday, I’d be willing to bet a lot of money on that being our next and final offer. 2-15-17 for 1, if that doesn’t get it done I’d want us to move on and focus on the talent we are getting at 2&3.

 

[trooroo4life]

Would rather just bundle up our late firsts ourselves and get another top 10 pick.

Giving up 3 or 4 picks inside the top 20 to move one spot up the draft is so dumb.

I don’t see how this happens though with Leake and Windsor pushing up clubs draft boards. Twomey mentioned we packaged 2 of the teens picks and didn’t get any bites, I can’t see us getting another top 10 tbh.

 

[My Left Foote]

It's more the value of the pick itself. Pick 15 isn't getting the 15th best prospect in junior footy, it's getting the 20th best. The academy and father sons players are still part of the draft crop.

I'm sure clubs have their list of eligible players ranked of course but in assessing the true value.of the pick you can't just pretend academy players don't exist. So it's relevant to say pick 15 becomes pick 20 because it more accurately represents the players available to you in the full draft pool and their quality range.

There's nuance to this;
A player at pick 20 may accurately represent their quality in the draft i.e. 20th best player.
BUT the same player at pick 20 doesn't accurately represent their quality of the players available to you i.e. 15th best player out of the 15 available to you.

 

[muttley45]

What happens if there is complete silence now between us and weagles until draft night ? they might get nervous and approach us first, if not, we can make a final take it or leave it offer close to cut off time and see who blinks first.

 

[roos_fanatic08]

I don’t see how this happens though with Leake and Windsor pushing up clubs draft boards. Twomey mentioned we packaged 2 of the teens picks and didn’t get any bites, I can’t see us getting another top 10 tbh.

If someone like Caddy or O'sullivan slides on draft night we could look to live trade, especially if a club who had planned on getting a specific player doesn't rate who is available.

 

[TennisPlayerAndy]

As I mentioned yesterday, I’d be willing to bet a lot of money on that being our next and final offer. 2-15-17 for 1, if that doesn’t get it done I’d want us to move on and focus on the talent we are getting at 2&3.

2,3,15,17,18 > 1, 3, 18.

 

[DocSholl]

There's nuance to this;
A player at pick 20 may accurately represent their quality in the draft i.e. 20th best player.
BUT the same player at pick 20 doesn't accurately represent their quality of the players available to you i.e. 15th best player out of the 15 available to you.

But the pick becomes less valuable when you're talking about trade situations which is the point

 

[Del191229]

I'd do this but want to keep 11.

I think 1, 6 and 11 is preferable to 2 and 3.

What about I give you 10 - ten! - of my shiny gold coins here in my wallet for those two dirty yellow notes you've got in yours?

 

[My Left Foote]

But the pick becomes less valuable when you're talking about trade situations which is the point

Agree to disagree, if the club you're trading to has access to the same players as you do then it has the same value.

 

[Mute Point]

Bottom line is if the Eagles swap pick 1 with any other team than us they'll go from being able to choose the #1 player to selecting, at best, the #5 player (providing we keep 2 & 3).

They know it
We know it
We know that they know it
They know that we know it

They go from having certainty about who'll they pick to becoming reliant on who other teams select before them.

 

[My Left Foote]

I suspect I’ll have to leave it there otherwise I’ll cop a thread ban, but to everyone other than the few salt baes, cheers for the warm welcome. Enjoy the next month of this trade circus.

Chat again after the 20th eh?

Hey Mop weren't you staying out of this thread until after the 20th?

You can't help yourself, you're like a Mop to the flame.

 

[TennisPlayerAndy]

Bottom line is if the Eagles swap pick 1 with any other team than us they'll go from being able to choose the #1 player to selecting, at best, the #5 player (providing we keep 2 & 3).

They know it
We know it
We know that they know it
They know that we know it

They go from having certainty about who'll they pick to becoming reliant on who other teams select before them.

And we’d be silly not to select Curtain in this scenario.

 

[Heaps of fun]

What about I give you 10 - ten! - of my shiny gold coins here in my wallet for those two dirty yellow notes you've got in yours?

Swap you my monster fitty cent piece for your girly 2 dollar coin.

 

[Sillygit]

Hey Mop weren't you staying out of this thread until after the 20th?

You can't help yourself, you're like a Mop to the flame.

How could he resist? This is the only decent place to be on this website.

 

[Sphynx]

Can someone explain the logic of a pick being worth less because it will be pushed back by F/S and Academy?

Just seems like an obsession with the overall number.

They're not players you have access to anyway, so why does it matter where they're taken?

If you have pick 10, and the draft goes Pick 1, 8x Father Sons, Pick 10, then you, you're still getting the Third best AVAILABLE player, same as if it went Pick 1, Pick 2, You, 7x Father Sons.

The only benefit you gain is being able to bid on F/S/Academy which by the draft you basically already know whether someone is committed to drafting a player that is expected to go in the first round.

Because draft picks don't have a single year value.

Teams traded into this year with picks, clubs will trade into next year.

Pick 13 isn't worth Pick 13 last year with less bids.

I've never understood your line of thinking.

If you use pick 10, you aren't getting the second best player in the draft, you are getting the 10th.

You are still competing against these players on the ladder, they form part of the talent pool you have to play against.

We wont be getting the 15th, 17th and 18th best players in the draft.

 

[DocSholl]

Agree to disagree, if the club you're trading to has access to the same players as you do then it has the same value.

Yes, but we're talking about the media pointing out how the pick drops. That is relevant, because 2 and 15 looks much better on paper when you're.not mentioning that 5 of the top 15 prospects are academy or FS.

 

[Twinkletoes]

Don’t care what the eagles want, we can take 2 of the top 3 and shouldn’t move from that ratio

Exactly. We arent given up 2 of the top 3.

We’ll be going to the draft with 2 picks in the top 3, whether it remains 2 and 3 or becomes 1 and 3. WC know it. Whatever else occurs with the teen picks will determine which direction this goes but the above is 100% certain regardless.

 

[hilly]

Yes, but we're talking about the media pointing out how the pick drops. That is relevant, because 2 and 15 looks much better on paper when you're.not mentioning that 5 of the top 15 prospects are academy or FS.

Any mail KIA34?

 

[The Filth Wizard]

Interesting that Jay Clark just ran with this in the Herald Sun, he seems to be a bit of a mouthpiece/newsmaker for the Eagles (they are welcome to correct me if wrong) recently:

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/melbourne-reportedly-offer-three-firstround-draft-picks-to-west-coast-in-the-race-for-harley-reid/news-story/5f0f8ac66effeded770136e1482567cc

"Melbourne has offered three first-round selections including its prized pick six in a bid to pinch No. 1, and star underage prospect, Harley Reid from West Coast.
The Demons were prepared to give up pick six, 11, 42 and their future first-round pick to the Eagles for pick one, sources have confirmed.

But West Coast did not accept the deal and remain on track to keep pick one, believing the Tongala product can become one of the best players in the competition in blue and yellow.

North has also offered picks 15, 17 and 18 for one, but the Eagles do not want multiple picks in the teens unless they accompany multiple single-figure picks as well.


Harley Reid is considered a once in a generation talent. Picture: Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images
The last two times a club has taken three players in the teens GWS Giants in 2020 selected Tanner Bruhn (12), Conor Stone (15) and Ryan Angwin (18) and Collingwood in 2012 picked Brodie Grundy

4

Brodie Grundy

Age

31

Ht

202cm

Wt

105kg

Pos.

Ruck

Career

Season

Last 5

D

17.5

4star

K

8.0

3star

HB

9.6

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4.1

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HO

32.0

5star

D

16.4

4star

K

6.8

3star

HB

9.6

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CL

4.0

5star

HO

34.6

5star

D

13.8

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K

5.2

2star

HB

8.6

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CL

2.6

5star

HO

20.6

5star

(18), Ben Kennedy

Ben Kennedy

Age

31

Ht

175cm

Wt

78kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

13.8

4star

K

7.0

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HB

6.8

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M

2.2

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0.7

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No current season stats available

D

10.8

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1.6

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(19) and Tim Broomhead (20).

Recruiters agree the talent drops off after pick 10 in this year’s draft.

North’s pick two and three would likely be enough to tempt West Coast to off-load pick one, but the Kangaroos are not interested in that deal."

 

[ohmygewd]

Very interesting interview!! Get a great insight into Watto's drive and a reason l reckon Clarko would want him. Then you have Harley and very pogniant about his home life...and there's a special mention to a certain North player - great interview and if we get Harley, we get Watto.

 

[Supa_Nova]

Interesting that Jay Clark just ran with this in the Herald Sun, he seems to be a bit of a mouthpiece/newsmaker for the Eagles (they are welcome to correct me if wrong) recently:

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/melbourne-reportedly-offer-three-firstround-draft-picks-to-west-coast-in-the-race-for-harley-reid/news-story/5f0f8ac66effeded770136e1482567cc

"Melbourne has offered three first-round selections including its prized pick six in a bid to pinch No. 1, and star underage prospect, Harley Reid from West Coast.
The Demons were prepared to give up pick six, 11, 42 and their future first-round pick to the Eagles for pick one, sources have confirmed.

But West Coast did not accept the deal and remain on track to keep pick one, believing the Tongala product can become one of the best players in the competition in blue and yellow.

North has also offered picks 15, 17 and 18 for one, but the Eagles do not want multiple picks in the teens unless they accompany multiple single-figure picks as well.


Harley Reid is considered a once in a generation talent. Picture: Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images
The last two times a club has taken three players in the teens GWS Giants in 2020 selected Tanner Bruhn (12), Conor Stone (15) and Ryan Angwin (18) and Collingwood in 2012 picked Brodie Grundy (18), Ben Kennedy (19) and Tim Broomhead (20).

Recruiters agree the talent drops off after pick 10 in this year’s draft.

North’s pick two and three would likely be enough to tempt West Coast to off-load pick one, but the Kangaroos are not interested in that deal."

Ummm 2020 was COVID affected no? So talent was all over the place? And 2012... well correct me if I am wrong people, but pick 20 isn't in the teens is it?

 

[DocSholl]

Any mail KIA34?

LIKE I TOLD YOU Paul Maley's son and we're pre-listIng Sanders