Rumour GFC 2024 Player Trading, Drafting FA, Rumours and Wish lists Pt 1

[Vdubs]

https://archive.is/2023.10.25-112616/https://www.geelongadvertiser.com.au/sport/afl/geelong-cats/afl-2023-geelong-midseason-draftee-mitch-hardie-set-to-sign-on-with-cats/news-story/7347e74d5777277241730ee5adcbbf9c?amp&nk=d601063a8926b5a2d128df584a5911ac-1698233180

Murdoch signed too.

what about Kroeger?

 

[moond0g]

With the reported trades that other clubs may be willing to offer WCE for pick 1, there's been a bit of discussion over the past day or so around having multiple picks in the teens & that it sounds better on paper than in practice

Maybe something for us to remember when proposing trades for multiple picks in the teens

That's fair. I think people often overrate the value of a pick in the teens just because it's a 'first rounder'.

But those comparisons aren't great; there's no way WCE are trading 1 for 18, 19, 20 like that example and miss out on the elite talent.

The only scenario they trade 1 is one where they'd get pick 2 back with some later first rounders (or future firsts) from North, for example. So, they wouldn't be giving up a pick in the very top end of the draft. North last year are a good example, traded 1 but got 2 back.

 

[BORIS332]

what about Kroeger?

Kroeger is the only player still without a contract for 2024.

 

[dazbroncos]

Kroeger is the only player still without a contract for 2024.

That’s my understanding now too.
I’ll update list on weekend.

Go Catters

 

[BORIS332]

I found this article very insightful. It has each of the top prospects call out who they think should be a draft bolter this year. The below caught my eye, Ferronato averaged 28 disposals for Northern Knights this year.

Northern Knights’ Nate Caddy said: “I’d say Kristian Ferronato. I wouldn’t necessarily say he’d be in the first-round mix, but he’d be on the cusp. He had an unreal year – and he played Australian basketball last year – and doing well for himself. I feel like if he had that full five or six years of just playing football … yeah, he will get better. He’ll go well. He’s a big-bodied midfielder, but he’s also built his tank a bit. His skills will get better, but he’s just determined. He was an Australian basketballer, goes and plays football for one year – and he could get drafted. I feel like the upside with him is pretty good.”

 

[Lana]

I found this article very insightful. It has each of the top prospects call out who they think should be a draft bolter this year. The below caught my eye, Ferronato averaged 28 disposals for Northern Knights this year.

Sounds right up our alley

 

[Farmer2Goggin]

When you look at the top contested players in the league, I reckon only Cripps was a known contest beast as a junior.

Often these players started as more explosive half forwards or mids, and then translated that into a contest when they matured at AFL level.

Even the great contest warrior, Joel Corey, was more a runner all round mid when he was drafted.

I have big doubts on these types in the draft.

The Swans Kennedy and Cripps would be the big exceptions off top of my head.

Good call bulletproof

Quiet time of year so happy to expand a bit on Cripps.
My sons first year at EF Colts was the draft year for Cripps and Jansen - my son was a bottom age small mid and both Paddy and Jarrad took him and a couple of others under their wing to train with and show them the ropes.
At the time both were outstanding mids - contested beasts with Cripps also able to spread with speed , Jarad more of a distributor.
What a career Cripps is having plus Jarad has been great in the WAFL culminating in a flag this year.
More importantly both are fine young men any parent would be proud of.

 

[cats_09]

That's fair. I think people often overrate the value of a pick in the teens just because it's a 'first rounder'.

But those comparisons aren't great; there's no way WCE are trading 1 for 18, 19, 20 like that example and miss out on the elite talent.

The only scenario they trade 1 is one where they'd get pick 2 back with some later first rounders (or future firsts) from North, for example. So, they wouldn't be giving up a pick in the very top end of the draft. North last year are a good example, traded 1 but got 2 back.

The other thing I think that's come into things over the past decade is the points value assigned to draft picks, and people using them to help formulate trades they think present better value

We all know pick 1 is valued at 3000pts, North's picks 15, 17 & 18 equate to a value of 3122 - but I know which combination of picks or in this case, pick I'd rather have

It's all good to look at pick values & the use of calculators in trades, but the main value of those points is when discussing bidding for academy or F&S selections

 

[cats_09]

Guessing we can take a trade for pick 1 off the table

 

[Gee Class Loco]

With respect Neale will only be a polarising character if posters can’t park their egos trying to be “right”

He is a ripper kid with a personality that is anything but polarising.
Suggest we all just let the kid develop and play the game he absolutely loves.

As long as he delivers he has little to worry about.

As for posters and posting their views values egos strategies and opinions etc etc... thats why we are here aren't we?

Fingers crossed that the mailman delivers.

 

[Lana]

The other thing I think that's come into things over the past decade is the points value assigned to draft picks, and people using them to help formulate trades they think present better value

We all know pick 1 is valued at 3000pts, North's picks 15, 17 & 18 equate to a value of 3122 - but I know which combination of picks or in this case, pick I'd rather have

It's all good to look at pick values & the use of calculators in trades, but the main value of those points is when discussing bidding for academy or F&S selections

This whole situation reminds me when there was talk about North tading pick 1 for three first rounders. When the final details were out, it was obvious that the third 1st rounder had an asterix on it.

In this case those three picks are all being moved back at least 4 spots.

When you trade 1 pick for three you also have to consider the destruction of picks at the end of the draft. If the draft would have gone for 59 picks, then if not for the trade then WCE could have created two extra picks at the end of the draft.

The deal is closer to pick 1,60,61 for 19,21,22
Which is 3281 points against 2671 points

 

[Farmer2Goggin]

As long as he delivers he has little to worry about.

As for posters and posting their views values egos strategies and opinions etc etc... thats why we are here aren't we?

Fingers crossed that the mailman delivers.

Fair call GCL, really hope he works on his core and puts in the hours at the gym.
At 203 or so and his frame he could be quite a weapon in 2-3 years.
He was a state level 400/800 junior , has great skills and is a solid set shot.
Seems to have settled into the Cats lifestyle, hope he reaches his potential

 

[moond0g]

The other thing I think that's come into things over the past decade is the points value assigned to draft picks, and people using them to help formulate trades they think present better value

We all know pick 1 is valued at 3000pts, North's picks 15, 17 & 18 equate to a value of 3122 - but I know which combination of picks or in this case, pick I'd rather have

It's all good to look at pick values & the use of calculators in trades, but the main value of those points is when discussing bidding for academy or F&S selections

Yeah exactly. People talk about the points often, but they often forget that they values are completely arbitrary.

They're made up by the AFL for a single purpose, and are only relevant when talking about FS bids.

 

[Hinkley29]

Man, it was crazy that North won that game against GC in the last round.

They must be absolutely kicking themselves now, they just had to find a way to lose that game.

 

[calder_daddy]

Saw the below in another thread. It's insane to me that Delean only just scrapes in. His numbers this year have been comparable with Watson's, and he's 11cm taller. He's even played SANFL league and kicked goals. I hope we get him at 25 if he's there.

He’s that good they ranked him twice
34 and 43

 

[Lana]

Yeah exactly. People talk about the points often, but they often forget that they values are completely arbitrary.

They're made up by the AFL for a single purpose, and are only relevant when talking about FS bids.

It was based on a regression from salary vs draft pick, whether you use games player or games played at club, that rough shape holds pretty true, I've seen a similar graph with the same shape made using NFL data based of games.

Every club would have a similar model that they use even if it isn't exactly the same one as DVI

 

[year of the cat]

Man, it was crazy that North won that game against GC in the last round.

They must be absolutely kicking themselves now, they just had to find a way to lose that game.

There is some pride I reckon in avoiding the spoon. I'd prefer pick 2 to 1 based on that alone.

 

[Hinkley29]

There is some pride I reckon in avoiding the spoon. I'd prefer pick 2 to 1 based on that alone.

There is not much pride in coming 17th.

They have shot themselves in the foot, Harley Reid would help immensely in rebuilding their pride.

The interesting thing in hindsight is whether the AFL would have been so generous with the assistance package if they had pick 1 in their pocket. It is reverse logic, but they may have earned themselves a better assistance package from the AFL by not having pick 1.

 

[BORIS332]

There is some pride I reckon in avoiding the spoon. I'd prefer pick 2 to 1 based on that alone.

Had North finished last their McKay compensation would've been pick 2, so they would've had picks 1 & 2, with West Coast left with pick 3.

 

[year of the cat]

There is not much pride in coming 17th.

They have shot themselves in the foot, Harley Reid would help immensely in rebuilding their pride.

The interesting thing in hindsight is whether the AFL would have been so generous with the assistance package if they had pick 1 in their pocket. It is reverse logic, but they may have earned themselves a better assistance package from the AFL by not having pick 1.

True. But just me, I'd hate for our club to "win" a spoon.

I agree. Reid is clearly the best player in the draft but one player shouldn't alone determine their future.

The assistance package is a joke and I assume was provided to give them the draft capital to trade for pick 1. Funny now that the Kangaroos want their cake and to eat it too and are miserly in their offers for it.

 

[CatRiot]

Catching up on a few pages...

Shannon Neale being referred to as a ruckman gives me flashbacks to the description of the famous "Peter Street Stand" at the river end pocket................temporary and not very good.

Neale is not a ruckman, and just because he's tall doesn't mean he has a clue in that position. Tyson Stengle is small but it doesn't mean he's a gerbil.

Neale was more a Ruck/Forward when drafted, rather than a Forward/Ruck. It's just that we have played as a Key Forward mostly in the VFL, and we have plans for him to be a Key Forward/Ruck option.

Our last two premiership ruckmen weren’t either, but they learnt.

I don’t see ruckman in Neale either but how many saw that in Rhys Stanley two years in?

Stanley also was traded by us primarily to be used as the 2nd Key Forward behind Hawkins, and to chop out in the Ruck. It just turned out he was better in the Ruck with some time.

Leake seems very Geelong.

Jimmy Leake is the BEST true utility in this draft IMO.
Can play back forward on ball centre wing and has had an impact across the park all year long.

I was hoping Leake wouldn't get any wraps online. I watched his highlights a few weeks back and noticed a few things to like about the way he moves and plays. To me, him and Wilson have a similar projection, and when I watched both in the highlights, even though Leake statistically doesn't match Wilson, I thought Leake had the higher ceiling.

I am hoping we trade 8 out for a premium to adelaide.

If they want to trade up so bad we go 8 and 25 for 10, 14 and 20. Maybe swap our F2 for their F3 to make them feel like their not being completely shafted.

I would then chase the pair of tassie lads, our local boy and a couple of talls with hopes at least one comes good.
10 - Leake
14 - Schoenmaker
20 - Stevens
76 - Wil Dawson (Utility Fwd/Def/Ruck 200cm)
87 - Evan Smith (Raw Ruck/Fwd 201cm) or Vigo Visentini (Raw Ruck 204cm)

Elevate demp

I probably would consider that trade with Crows, and I would have Leake as first choice outside the Top 10 with our first pick. I think he will be there around Pick 15 at the latest.
I thought Shoenmaker would be a good player, as he has a big engine and a great kick, but I think his lack of pace "might" get found out at AFL level. Schoenmaker is a better natural footy player than ZZ, but ZZ has the better physical attributes to play different roles for us. I think Schoenmaker will be available at 20, and ZZ by 30 at latest. We might not go for either, if we take BVD with one our last picks in the draft as a mature KPD.
The other bloke I have with a high ceiling is Charlie Edwards, and I think he will be available around 20-30 range, as he looks like a very good finisher and has the high end running action, a bit similar to Leake. You get Leake and Edwards running at full pace, and they will pull away from opponents. Imho, both are big sizes 187cm and 191cm... Jack Crisp, Mitch Duncan, Isaac Smith types. But maybe you only take one or the other, as we already have Holmes.
We do need to address clearances, and maybe just with the picks we have you take Stevens. But say we don't pick him and it's around Pick 35-40 in the draft and he hasn't been called out, do you do a live trade swap around then and offer a F3+F4? And see if someone bites. I'd rather keep our F2, as we could very well be a bottom 4-6 club next season, or could be really good, it's a hard one to say.

Disagree. Tom Green, Clay Oliver, Andy Brayshaw, Brad Crouch, Jack Viney, James Worpel, Josh Dunkley, Jack Steele, Luke Parker, Jack Ziebell, Ben Cunnington, Ollie Wines. There's tons of examples of draftees that were contested beasts that carried it into their AFL careers.

Some of those contested bests you mention are actually not that slow. Oliver is definitely not slow, has enough pace to play outside, when he's at full stretch he would be the fastest in that list. Worpel, B Crouch, Viney are not that slow either, but not line breakers if that's what you meant by that.

George Stevens isn't as fast as Oliver, Worpel, B Crouch, Viney, nor Wines... Cunnington is slow, but has a quick first few steps. But Stevens probably sits around the bottom end of that list of players for pace, like Green, Steele, Ziebell.

 

[CatsDoItBetter]

So yes to Charlie Constable and Lachie Fogarty. No to SDK and Max Holmes. Got it!

You can substitute many names we’ve drafted to suit your argument. Dekoning was all australian junior chb so not a bolter. And none of those players were picked in the top 10 which makes a bit difference.
At the picks those players were drafted you need to be speculative because the players with more assured attributes should’ve already been drafted.

 

[Footy Smarts]

You can substitute many names we’ve drafted to suit your argument. Dekoning was all australian junior chb so not a bolter. And none of those players were picked in the top 10 which makes a bit difference.
At the picks those players were drafted you need to be speculative because the players with more assured attributes should’ve already been drafted.

I'm taking the piss a bit. But at the time people were VERY happy around here with us drafting Fogarty and Constable. Both were seen as potential 1st round sliders. And people were VERY unhappy with us drafting SDK and Holmes. SDK was viewed as a very speculative project player with Deven Robertson being seen as the obvious pick on this board. And trading a future first for Homes led to an all time great series of melts on this board.

I agree somewhat about top 10 picks being much less speculative. We're not going to take a massive bolter with pick 8. But we might trade out pick 8. I'm still sort of hoping Sanders is on the board at our pick and we live trade it just for the meltdown that would cause.

 

[moond0g]

It was based on a regression from salary vs draft pick, whether you use games player or games played at club, that rough shape holds pretty true, I've seen a similar graph with the same shape made using NFL data based of games.

Every club would have a similar model that they use even if it isn't exactly the same one as DVI

Do you have a link to any of these analyses out of interest? I'd be curious to have a look

They would have to account for the constrained nature of the data; there's some inherent co-dependency in there. e.g., salary caps have a fixed total, and there are only ever 22 players in a team. Therefore, 3 players on $300k don't necessarily equal 1 player on $900k, or 3 players that play 50 games don't equal 1 player that plays 150 games, if you know what I mean.

 

[CatsDoItBetter]

I'm taking the piss a bit. But at the time people were VERY happy around here with us drafting Fogarty and Constable. Both were seen as potential 1st round sliders. And people were VERY unhappy with us drafting SDK and Holmes. SDK was viewed as a very speculative project player with Deven Robertson being seen as the obvious pick on this board. And trading a future first for Homes led to an all time great series of melts on this board.

I agree somewhat about top 10 picks being much less speculative. We're not going to take a massive bolter with pick 8. But we might trade out pick 8. I'm still sort of hoping Sanders is on the board at our pick and we live trade it just for the meltdown that would cause.

If we trade back out and take some more speculative or sliders that’s different. I was keen on Constable not Fogarty but also slider and bolter not the same.
Obviously those guys didn’t really work out but it was around that time we shifted from taking players with a lot of other things happening for them injury or athlete instead of footballer first.
And I think that shift has been positive and delivered us some other really good players through the draft and trading.
We took a safer pick last year and I think Clark will be at least a solid afl player but hopefully more. Our last top 10 pick we went the other way and took cockatoo.