2024 Ladder Predictions

[Mr Meow]

I think something most Geelong supporters can't seem to fathom is that the drop off already happened.

First of all, a fair chunk do (they're on the Geelong board).

The rest of us think it could go either way in 2024 - back playing finals or another season in no man's land. It was our worst year for injuries to top 15 players in memory. That could repeat but isn't guaranteed.

Second consecutive season out of finals is probably when ALL will concede finals is completely out of the picture. It happened 2001-2003 and 1998-1999 before that. I reckon the 2024 side will still be stronger than those ones but we'll see.

 

[almuz]

Id have Gibcus, Tylar Young, Ross, Cumberland, Banks, Kosi and one of Ryan/Bauer as locks with 3 spots up for grabs out of Pickett, McIntosh, Graham, Dow, Grimes, Rioli Jr plus the kids.

There's no glaring weakness. I repeat, we will not be bottom 4 (barring an injury crisis).

Those names are pretty underwhelming

 

[Lsta062]

And he’ll get them over their problem on the road …. Dimma loves to travel

Except Marvel Stadium. I’m sorry Gold Coast fans, but the players are going to have to teach him what to do there

 

[Footy Smarts]

I think something most Geelong supporters can't seem to fathom is that the drop off already happened.

That's very possible. I think we go either way. Either it was the first clear sign of the cliff. Or we bounce back cause it was just a year where everything went wrong.

It's hard to tell cause a lot clearly did go wrong. But 2 years on from the flag it's hard to be confident that age won't be an issue next year.

 

[Footy Smarts]

Those names are pretty underwhelming

If that list of names doesn't count as a glaring weakness it's hard to know what would.

 

[Orange crush]

Except Marvel Stadium. I’m sorry Gold Coast fans, but the players are going to have to teach him what to do there

Indeed ... I was being a bit tongue in cheek with that one

 

[Lsta062]

Indeed ... I was being a bit tongue in cheek with that one

Yeah I understood that lol. Hardwick doesn't really like the travel - especially that Marvel Stadium travel. Wonder if the Gabba will become the new Marvel Stadium

 

[tiger_tough]

Those names are pretty underwhelming

Maybe if you're not familiar with them. or haven't watched them closely.

Gibcus is our most promising young players and had a huge 1st year, if his hammy is sorted he will be a gun.
Young was one of the best one-on-one defenders in the comp in his first year.
Ross is solid.
Cumberland has multiple hauls of 3 plus goals in his first 20 games including 5 against Brisbane. Dimma completely destroyed his confidence. Has star potential and is ready.
Banks is highly rated internally. Will be our best winger.
Kosi just needs to play a role alongside Lynch. he will do that at worst.
Bauer was dominant at both ends in the VFL and should be ready to step up the AFL level.

If 3 of the remaining are last picked we're going okay...

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Maybe if you're not familiar with them. or haven't watched them closely.

Gibcus is our most promising young players and had a huge 1st year, if his hammy is sorted he will be a gun.
Young was one of the best one-on-one defenders in the comp in his first year.
Ross is solid.
Cumberland has multiple hauls of 3 plus goals in his first 20 games including 5 against Brisbane. Dimma completely destroyed his confidence. Has star potential and is ready.
Banks is highly rated internally. Will be our best winger.
Kosi just needs to play a role alongside Lynch. he will do that at worst.
Bauer was dominant at both ends in the VFL and should be ready to step up the AFL level.

If 3 of the remaining are last picked we're going okay...

We just needed Kosi to play a role as key forward when Lewis was out for the first 7 rounds in 2023. He got dropped to Box Hill he was that poor and 186cm Fergus Greene became our key forward alongside Bruest.

Lower your expectations of what he can do.

 

[tiger_tough]

We just needed Kosi to play a role as key forward when Lewis was out for the first 7 rounds in 2023. He got dropped to Box Hill he was that poor and 186cm Fergus Greene became our key forward alongside Bruest.

Lower your expectations of what he can do.

Geez if expecting him to just be able to play a role requires a re-think it's going to be a poor trade. We wouldn't have recruited him if we didn't think he was capable of at least doing that. He has plenty of potential, hopefully Yze and Newman can get it out of him.

At least he has a crack, that's a good start.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Geez if expecting him to just be able to play a role requires a re-think it's going to be a poor trade. We wouldn't have recruited him if we didn't think he was capable of at least doing that. He has plenty of potential, hopefully Yze and Newman can get it out of him.

At least he has a crack, that's a good start.

Newman was his line coach at Hawthorn too.

 

[YeoShuey]

1. Carlton
2 - 18. Irrelevant teams who won't win the Premiership.

 

[Orange crush]

1. Carlton
2 - 18. Irrelevant teams who won't win the Premiership.

heck it gonna be fun watching you guys melt under pressure again next year

 

[Mr Meeseeks]

Well put! Both sides had major injury concerns and could very easily bounce back.

Harder to bounce back from injury in your 30s, they also happen more frequently.

Geelong could have a dream run with injuries and push again but its unlikely given the age profile. Its a risk they are clearly happy to take.

 

[Footy Smarts]

Harder to bounce back from injury in your 30s, they also happen more frequently.

Geelong could have a dream run with injuries and push again but its unlikely given the age profile. Its a risk they are clearly happy to take.

Not really sure what the risk is. We've got 17 players under 22 on the list which is among the most in the league. So the transition of the list is occurring.

You would think once Hawkins, Danger, Blicavs, etc move on we'll drop away at least somewhat. I'm not sure what rush there is to force that a year sooner as long as you're not harming your future. Given how many young players have already broken into the team and how heavily we've invested in youth recently I don't think we're doing that.

 

[Cursedsword02]

		W	L	D	%
1.	Brisbane Lions	20	3	0	128.4%
2.	Carlton	17	6	0	111.2%
3.	Collingwood	17	6	0	107.6%
4.	Adelaide	16	7	0	128.6%
5.	Port Adelaide	15	8	0	107.1%
6.	Melbourne	14	9	0	116.5%
7.	GWS	14	9	0	115.2%
8.	Sydney	12	11	0	101.2%
9.	Gold Coast	11	11	1	101.3%
10.	St Kilda	10	12	1	97.8%
11.	Geelong	10	13	0	99.8%
12.	Essendon	9	14	0	93.2%
13.	West Coast	8	14	1	82.8%
14.	Western Bulldogs	8	15	0	93.3%
15.	Fremantle	7	16	0	92.9%
16.	Hawthorn	7	16	0	85.1%
17.	North Melbourne	6	16	1	80.5%
18.	Richmond	4	19	0	76.3%

QF1: BRISBANE LIONS v Adelaide
QF2: CARLTON v Collingwood
EF1: PORT ADELAIDE v Sydney
EF2: Melbourne v GWS

SF1: ADELAIDE v Port Adelaide
SF2: Collingwood v GWS

PF1: BRISBANE LIONS v GWS
PF2: CARLTON v Adelaide

GF: Brisbane Lions v CARLTON

A few notes:

• Brisbane goes undefeated at the Gabba but lose every game at the G including the Grand Final thanks to some... "questionable" umpiring.
• Draws come from STK v GCS in R13 and NM v WC in R22
• Bevo gets the sack at the end of the season. Rumours float about Longmuir, Goodwin and Chris Scott
  Chris Scott

  Age

  49

  Ht

  182cm

  Wt

  89kg

  Pos.

  Fwd

  Career

  Season

  Last 5

  D

  16.6

  4star

  K

  11.2

  4star

  HB

  5.4

  4star

  M

  5.1

  5star

  T

  1.6

  4star

  G

  0.4

  3star

  No current season stats available

  D

  13.2

  4star

  K

  10.2

  4star

  HB

  3.0

  3star

  M

  2.2

  3star

  T

  2.8

  5star

  G

  0.4

  3star

  but nothing eventuates.
• West Coast wins both derbies, Crows win all three Showdowns, The Q-Clash and Sydney Derby teams split wins.

Is this biases towards WC? Probably. Could this prediction be easily proven wrong? Definitely. Do I care? Absolutely not.

 

[FootyLad0]

Harder to bounce back from injury in your 30s, they also happen more frequently.

Geelong could have a dream run with injuries and push again but its unlikely given the age profile. Its a risk they are clearly happy to take.

Most injuries were contact injuries like facial fractures, orbital fracture, broken arm, navicular fractal, broken foot etc.

They have no bearing on your age as a professional athlete because they are freak accidents, not just general running/fitness/age related. The fact that most of those injuries happened to younger players too like Stengle, Holmes, SDK, Jhye Clark, Jack Henry says that statistically an injury free year is far more likely.

 

[Orange crush]

Most injuries were contact injuries like facial fractures, orbital fracture, broken arm, navicular fractal, broken foot etc.

They have no bearing on your age as a professional athlete because they are freak accidents, not just general running/fitness/age related. The fact that most of those injuries happened to younger players too like Stengle, Holmes, SDK, Jhye Clark, Jack Henry says that statistically an injury free year is far more likely.

One thing with regard to injury, young players not yet fully developed and older players both tend to suffer most.

 

[bradfisher14]

		W	L	D	%
1.	Brisbane Lions	20	3	0	128.4%
2.	Carlton	17	6	0	111.2%
3.	Collingwood	17	6	0	107.6%
4.	Adelaide	16	7	0	128.6%
5.	Port Adelaide	15	8	0	107.1%
6.	Melbourne	14	9	0	116.5%
7.	GWS	14	9	0	115.2%
8.	Sydney	12	11	0	101.2%
9.	Gold Coast	11	11	1	101.3%
10.	St Kilda	10	12	1	97.8%
11.	Geelong	10	13	0	99.8%
12.	Essendon	9	14	0	93.2%
13.	West Coast	8	14	1	82.8%
14.	Western Bulldogs	8	15	0	93.3%
15.	Fremantle	7	16	0	92.9%
16.	Hawthorn	7	16	0	85.1%
17.	North Melbourne	6	16	1	80.5%
18.	Richmond	4	19	0	76.3%

QF1: BRISBANE LIONS v Adelaide
QF2: CARLTON v Collingwood
EF1: PORT ADELAIDE v Sydney
EF2: Melbourne v GWS

SF1: ADELAIDE v Port Adelaide
SF2: Collingwood v GWS

PF1: BRISBANE LIONS v GWS
PF2: CARLTON v Adelaide

GF: Brisbane Lions v CARLTON

A few notes:

• Brisbane goes undefeated at the Gabba but lose every game at the G including the Grand Final thanks to some... "questionable" umpiring.
• Draws come from STK v GCS in R13 and NM v WC in R22
• Bevo gets the sack at the end of the season. Rumours float about Longmuir, Goodwin and Chris Scott but nothing eventuates.
• West Coast wins both derbies, Crows win all three Showdowns, The Q-Clash and Sydney Derby teams split wins.

Is this biases towards WC? Probably. Could this prediction be easily proven wrong? Definitely. Do I care? Absolutely not.

Best prediction I’ve seen yet. Close thread.

 

[timokane]

1. pies
2. crows
3. lions
4. gws
5. swans
6. blues
7. port
8. suns

9. dees
10. essendon
11. dogs
12. cats
13. hawks
14. st.kilda
15. freo
16. tigers
17. roos
18. west toast

 

[FootyLad0]

Best prediction I’ve seen yet. Close thread.

1 major change in the entire 8 and basically a shuffle of a few spots? You do know statistically there's always multiple drastic changes with usually multiple teams dropping right out and multiple teams jumping right up every year right? You have to account for injuries/form/fixture difficulty to weigh in on it.

 

[bradfisher14]

1 major change in the entire 8 and basically a shuffle of a few spots? You do know statistically there's always multiple drastic changes with usually multiple teams dropping right out and multiple teams jumping right up every year right? You have to account for injuries/form/fixture difficulty to weigh in on it.

You do know statistically there's always a few sarcastic posts in every thread, right?

 

[Handyandy]

1. pies
2. crows
3. lions
4. gws
5. swans
6. blues
7. port
8. suns

9. dees
10. essendon
11. dogs
12. cats
13. hawks
14. st.kilda
15. freo
16. tigers
17. roos
18. west toast

Sunshine and lollipops
These prediction threads are amusing
So the crows, a team that hasn’t made finals for 6 seasons will jump 8 spots? & be 2nd above lions.
Haha, self delusion with a touch of stupidity & ignorance
Saints drop 8 spots & ports drop 4
Haha, thanks for the laugh

 

[Mr MysteryGuest]

Sunshine and lollipops
These prediction threads are amusing
So the crows, a team that hasn’t made finals for 6 seasons will jump 8 spots? & be 2nd above lions.
Haha, self delusion with a touch of stupidity & ignorance
Saints drop 8 spots & ports drop 4
Haha, thanks for the laugh

not sure what self-delusion has to do with it.

in something like 14 of of the last 20 years, a team from outside the 8 has jumped into the top 4.

almost every year there are teams that have a big rise and a big fall.


nice melt though.

 

[Handyandy]

Yes and we went from 10th to first 2019-2020 but we are port and the crows are the crows.
The idea that the crows will suddenly be a top 2 team after 6 years of missing finals is highly amusing