Prediction 2024 Fixture Predictions

[briztoon]

2 SA clubs, 2 NSW clubs. 1 Qld Club, Geelong and two Melbourne clubs. The AFL will need to redo the fixture ASAP.

How the actual **** is Geelong considered a top 8 team ahead of Carlton and the Bulldogs?

 

[FootyLad0]

How the actual **** is Geelong considered a top 8 team ahead of Carlton and the Bulldogs?

It's based on data, for majority of the 2023 season the Cats had amazing % they just had a butt-tonne of injuries throughout the season and then late in the year sent guys for surgery early so tanked those games and played the really young fellas.
The Dogs vs Cats game in particular was great to watch seeing all the young kids out there that normally wouldn't have gotten a shot.

I'm imagining the data is banking on Geelong continuing to be the best scoring team from turnover in 2024.
The squiggle grid shows the Cats attacking and defensively are just below the Lions and GWS on the grid plot.
Squiggle 2024 <<< you can see every team's starting point here. If you click the "flagpole" link you can see how they've extrapolated the data.

Going from the hardest schedule to one of the easier ones definitely would help.
Actually getting blokes to stay healthy and be on the ground and bouncing back would be the aim, this was the first off season in 8 years where they actually had a long off season to work on stuff and take time to recover/get surgeries etc too.
They've had 3 non Finals years in 20 years (2006 which resulted in Premiership in 2007, 2015 which resulted in a top 2 finish in 2016 and now 2023)

Keep in mind the range says 3rd-12th. So while they could absolutely bounce back, they may continue to struggle with the transition of a huge glut of older blokes, a huge glut of really young talented blokes and not much in the middle age pack which is usually Premiership contending age. Never finished lower than 12th so can see why that's the end range number.

 

[whizkizz]

Bit late to the party, but has anyone else noticed our 2023 and 2024 fixtures are almost identical?

Both years we play double up match ups against Collingwood, Melbourne, Adelaide, St Kilda & Gold Coast. The only difference is in 2024 we traded a double up against Freo for a double up against GWS.

Overall there are only 3 real changes (i.e. playing someone different or playing a team in a different state) and then there are three incredibly minor venue changes.

Replaced Freo at the Gabba with GWS
Moved Carlton from Marvel to Gabba
Moved WCE from Gabba to Optus
Moved North from Mt Barker to Norwood
Moved Hawks from MCG to Marvel
Moved Collingwood from Marvel to MCG

That's it.

Doesn't feel all that 'random' to me, all this talk about how much planning goes into the fixture. I feel like they just borrowed their own homework and changed a few things hoping no one would notice. But I did.

 

[Grasshopper17]

Bit late to the party, but has anyone else noticed our 2023 and 2024 fixtures are almost identical?

Both years we play double up match ups against Collingwood, Melbourne, Adelaide, St Kilda & Gold Coast. The only difference is in 2024 we traded a double up against Freo for a double up against GWS.

Overall there are only 3 real changes (i.e. playing someone different or playing a team in a different state) and then there are three incredibly minor venue changes.

Replaced Freo at the Gabba with GWS
Moved Carlton from Marvel to Gabba
Moved WCE from Gabba to Optus
Moved North from Mt Barker to Norwood
Moved Hawks from MCG to Marvel
Moved Collingwood from Marvel to MCG

That's it.

Doesn't feel all that 'random' to me, all this talk about how much planning goes into the fixture. I feel like they just borrowed their own homework and changed a few things hoping no one would notice. But I did.

Great review and well spotted. Yes I did feel a sense of familiarity about it all, but not to the extent you've pointed out.

Unfortunately the AFL has fairness and equality a long down the list of priorities, well behind "marquee matchups" like Gold Coast v Richmond, which in an actual mature competition is right at the bottom.

 

[dlanod]

Bit late to the party, but has anyone else noticed our 2023 and 2024 fixtures are almost identical?

Both years we play double up match ups against Collingwood, Melbourne, Adelaide, St Kilda & Gold Coast. The only difference is in 2024 we traded a double up against Freo for a double up against GWS.

Overall there are only 3 real changes (i.e. playing someone different or playing a team in a different state) and then there are three incredibly minor venue changes.

Replaced Freo at the Gabba with GWS
Moved Carlton from Marvel to Gabba
Moved WCE from Gabba to Optus
Moved North from Mt Barker to Norwood
Moved Hawks from MCG to Marvel
Moved Collingwood from Marvel to MCG

That's it.

Doesn't feel all that 'random' to me, all this talk about how much planning goes into the fixture. I feel like they just borrowed their own homework and changed a few things hoping no one would notice. But I did.

Now do that for every club... I can guarantee they don't start with a set fixture for the Lions and work their way backwards from that.

 

[Cubs2Lions]

Bit late to the party, but has anyone else noticed our 2023 and 2024 fixtures are almost identical?

Both years we play double up match ups against Collingwood, Melbourne, Adelaide, St Kilda & Gold Coast. The only difference is in 2024 we traded a double up against Freo for a double up against GWS.

Overall there are only 3 real changes (i.e. playing someone different or playing a team in a different state) and then there are three incredibly minor venue changes.

Replaced Freo at the Gabba with GWS
Moved Carlton from Marvel to Gabba
Moved WCE from Gabba to Optus
Moved North from Mt Barker to Norwood
Moved Hawks from MCG to Marvel
Moved Collingwood from Marvel to MCG

That's it.

Doesn't feel all that 'random' to me, all this talk about how much planning goes into the fixture. I feel like they just borrowed their own homework and changed a few things hoping no one would notice. But I did.

Add in the fact we are playing GWS in ACT and Port Adelaide and Adelaide in South Australia again

 

[Albi_Mangler]

Rd 17 vs Crows, Sunday evening at the end of school holidays. Could they have picked a worse fixture time?

 

[Squizz89]

The AFL certainly not betting on us turning our form around…

 

[Grasshopper17]

More day games. Big fan

 

[CarterS]

Jeez they are quick to dump us out of prime time when we have a bit of a bad run.

 

[BuntonRules]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/a...ursday-night-footy-schedule-fixtures-NRL.html

WTF? Seems a bit silly. Have grown to be a fan of Thursday night footy.

 

[vic_LION]

Can’t stand these late Sunday games. Footy needs to be wrapped up by 4pm Sunday imo

 

[Dalions]

View attachment 1989261

Glad to see a couple of teams currently in the 8 with hard draws from here.

 

[Dalions]

Anyone know when the tickets will go on sale for the latest release of games?
Thinking of going down for the Round 23 game against the Old enemy.

 

[CarterS]

On a day where Fremantle are complaining about the amount of travel they have to do, we are not far behind.

I've probably mentioned this more than anyone else but I still think it's very unfair that we have away games against Port, Adelaide, West Coast and Fremantle plus the Gather Round making it 5 trips to SA/WA. No club in the history of the AFL has had to travel to SA/WA this many times in a season. I've had a quick look through the draw and I might be wrong but no other club has that many trips west.

3 of those trips are done but we still have away games vs. Port and WC to come.

Giving Freo/WC an extra home game to make up for the Gather Round would mean you'd have to do the same for NSW/QLD teams - the point that the GR is a free home game for SA based teams though is still a fair one.

 

[Section 5]

On a day where Fremantle are complaining about the amount of travel they have to do, we are not far behind.

I've probably mentioned this more than anyone else but I still think it's very unfair that we have away games against Port, Adelaide, West Coast and Fremantle plus the Gather Round making it 5 trips to SA/WA. No club in the history of the AFL has had to travel to SA/WA this many times in a season. I've had a quick look through the draw and I might be wrong but no other club has that many trips west.

3 of those trips are done but we still have away games vs. Port and WC to come.

Giving Freo/WC an extra home game to make up for the Gather Round would mean you'd have to do the same for NSW/QLD teams - the point that the GR is a free home game for SA based teams though is still a fair one.

Agree with most except Freo/WC don't get an extra home game to make up for gather round.
However, they have the derby (2 games) that allows both sides to not travel, so both sides play 12 games at Optus.
They alternate the home dressing sheds and home game status each year for that 2nd game.

Port plays 13 games at Adelaide Oval in 2024.
That being 11 home games + 1 Derby game (alternate home game status) + 1 Gather round at Adelaide Oval in 2024.
Adelaide also plays 13 games at Adelaide Oval the breakup the same as Port above.

 

[Section 5]

West Coast and Freo have their own dressing rooms at Optus; they don’t alternate.

Fair enough i did not know that.
Being the newest stadium that makes sense.

 

[Dalions]

Given who plays who in round 24, I reckon the Lions v Bombers game will almost certainly be the Friday night game at the Gabba particularly with the connotations that will likely flow from the game.

Speaking of Friday night games, the AFL may soon be thinking it was a pretty shit idea dumping us to Sundays off our start of year form.
We play a pretty attractive brand of footy when we are up and running.

 

[buttermuffs]

Speaking of Friday night games, the AFL may soon be thinking it was a pretty shit idea dumping us to Sundays off our start of year form.
We play a pretty attractive brand of footy when we are up and running.

Sunday 1:10 pm Brisbane vs Sydney at the Gabba is a big loss considering the FTA games are Essendon vs Adelaide, Geelong vs Dogs and Freo vs Melbourne.

 

[BuntonRules]

Sunday 1:10 pm Brisbane vs Sydney at the Gabba is a big loss considering the FTA games are Essendon vs Adelaide, Geelong vs Dogs and Freo vs Melbourne.

In the northern states, certainly.

 

[BuntonRules]

Trust the Guardian to give a good analysis

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/b...ootball-fixture-inequities-quirks-few-favours

 

[Grasshopper17]

Trust the Guardian to give a good analysis

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/b...ootball-fixture-inequities-quirks-few-favours

I get as far as the 3rd paragraph before I crack the sh!ts.

“The two KPIs of the fixture are broadcast viewership and attendance”

Fair dinkum, they should be "equity" and "fairness", not to mention "transparency".

Every season, at the end of week 17 (which I believe is now week 18), the average NFL fan sitting on their couch at home immediately knows exactly who their team will be playing next year. And I think they even know where as well. The "when" is obviously determined later but genuinely you can barely get more transparent than that.

That's a benchmark we can only dream of here while we are still mired in this desperate quest for "viewership and attendance" instead. It's backwater bush league stuff.

 

[martinson]

I get as far as the 3rd paragraph before I crack the sh!ts.

“The two KPIs of the fixture are broadcast viewership and attendance”

Fair dinkum, they should be "equity" and "fairness", not to mention "transparency".

Every season, at the end of week 17 (which I believe is now week 18), the average NFL fan sitting on their couch at home immediately knows exactly who their team will be playing next year. And I think they even know where as well. The "when" is obviously determined later but genuinely you can barely get more transparent than that.

That's a benchmark we can only dream of here while we are still mired in this desperate quest for "viewership and attendance" instead. It's backwater bush league stuff.

Maybe one day it will dawn on the AFL that without the clubs with reasonably low supporter bases you can't have clubs with mammoth supporter bases. They have to play somebody.

If you publicise ,promote and give considerable advantages to the most popular clubs first of all you jeopardise the integrity of the competition and growth of the game in all jurisdictions , and secondly end up boring people shitless with the same old year after year.

Population growth ,particularly in Melbourne has deluded the AFL into thinking the interest in games there is growth whereas it's just a natural demographic extension.

 

[Darren Downunder]

I’m a retired high school teacher from Melbourne. For about two decades, we’d have a footy colours day as a fundraiser. The kids would pay a gold coin and wear their football gear to school.

When I started teaching at my last school in the mid 90’s, just about every kid wore an AFL jumper or something. They all identified with their particular tribe.

By the time I retired in 2019, about a quarter of the kids were wearing AFL gear. Most were wearing basketball, soccer, NFL…

The corporate obsession of the AFL management is poisoning the well of future supporters.

 

[On the quiet]

i now believe there is a pathway to the top 8 and hopefully 6th. Lions win 6 of their last 9, get to 54 points and have a better % than Freo, who have also had the draw. On paper Freo does appear to have a slightly easier draw, hope Eagles can beat them in the derby.