Autopsy 2025 Round 18: Swans swindle slow Saints

[Parkysp]

So glad somebody finally said it.

I've heard it all before, Occam's razor they say, cutting all the experience from the list and focusing on youth with an eye towards the future takes time. Yeah, right! I'd like some substance for this theory. Is there any evidence ANYWHERE in the AFL that playing young players makes it harder to win? I don't think so.

Ross made the finals in his first year back, and then the list was cut to the bone. So they should have done BETTER in 2024. And losing Membrey and Battle? Who cares, it's only a couple of goals for and a couple of goals against. It shouldn't make a difference at all. You get a first-round draft pick for Battle.

And you only have to look at the Dockers list that Lyon left behind; he definitely should have done better with it. Their list was so good that they made the finals 3 years after his sacking and might even make the finals again this year!


/s

"Might" make finals. Well hit me with a wet lettuce leaf.

3 years after he left the club when he was clearly pumping games into a core young group. Sounds like a rebuild that was set on a good path to me...

Oh and if you'd stayed the course you may not have that spud Longmuir as a coach who "might" squeak you into 8th.

 

[gringo2011]

I'm an ex ruck, so perhaps a bit biased. But we need TDK. For those thinking it's wasted money, perhaps the price is steep but it doesn't negate that TDK will make our lives better. I

If a ruck is halving the contest it can seem that they aren't doing much but halving the contest is important because nobody including their midfield knows where it is going. Halve the contest then a ruck that gets around the ground and becomes an additional midfielder or key position player.

But if a ruck is getting dominated, and I'm not sure why, because Rohan used to be a bit more competitive on this front, but at the moment he is getting destroyed and that is significant. It puts their midfield on the front foot because they know everytime where the ball is likely to end up.

That last quarter, Grundy and their midfield won that game. That had happened a lot this with Ro rucking. As I've said, I want him to stay. He is a clunking mark and a great kick for goal. But if you don't think a TDK will make us better, I think you are very much mistaken.

Carlton fans always tell me that they are better when Pittonet plays as first ruck. TDK looks flash but often doesn't equate to wins. He's a dump kicker with a high leap but not particularly good tap craft. For his size he's like an extra mid. Surprisingly poor at marking considering his brother too. He's kind of like getting a slightly younger Marshall but higher leap but less of a big man's game.

You are basically taking him hoping that his game improves considerably but paying him the biggest contract in AFL history.

 

[PJays]

Collingwood had significant cap issues.

We do not.

We might if...

• NWM stays
• Hall keeps playing like he has for the last few weeks
• Phillipou gets his body right
• Tauru becomes the player we all think he will

Adding King and TDK into the mix, that could be 6 huge contracts on the books in 2 or 3 years time. Higgins wouldn't be on pennies either.

Even if 2 of those 4 things happen, it's still 4 big contracts.

Salary cap issues are never far away. It's just how the system works.

This idea that "we can't get players and our cap is low now, so it's fine to sign someone for 7 years, money is almost irrelevant to St Kilda" is so absurd that I almost throw my phone down in disgust every time I read somebody on here saying or implying it. Which sadly happens often.

A tired toddler talks more sense than that.

 

[gringo2011]

I thought it was perfect.
Lots to like and we lost.
Hopefully rinse and repeat for the rest of the season

I hate losing more than high picks.

 

[Sully111]

I was being sarcastic

I got it

Apparently, a few didn’t

 

[saintbill]

That’s one of your shittest takes Bill and there’s been some….

So you think this is a 2-11 list?

You think it is fine to be the only team to lose to WC this year?

Or to lose to Carlton when they had 1 healthy person on the bench for an entire game of football?

You pretty happy with the output this coaching group is getting from the playing group are you?

You must think the list is absolute garbage of that is the case. I certainly don't.

 

[MightySaintas]

I hate losing more than high picks.

I get that

 

[gringo2011]

We might if...

• NWM stays
• Hall keeps playing like he has for the last few weeks
• Phillipou gets his body right
• Tauru becomes the player we all think he will

Adding King and TDK into the mix, that could be 6 huge contracts on the books in 2 or 3 years time. Higgins wouldn't be on pennies either.

Even if 2 of those 4 things happen, it's still 4 big contracts.

Salary cap issues are never far away. It's just how the system works.

This idea that "we can't get players and our cap is low now, so it's fine to sign someone for 7 years, money is almost irrelevant to St Kilda" is so absurd that I almost throw my phone down in disgust every time I read somebody on here saying or implying it. Which sadly happens often.

A tired toddler talks more sense than that.

Hugo needs to stop playing like a young Zac Butters too. Wilson is still tracking like a star too despite people losing it with him.

 

[billings2paddy]

"Might" make finals. Well hit me with a wet lettuce leaf.

3 years after he left the club when he was clearly pumping games into a core young group. Sounds like a rebuild that was set on a good path to me...

Oh and if you'd stayed the course you may not have that spud Longmuir as a coach who "might" squeak you into 8th.

Exactly
If ross was coaching freo right now with the talent on the list freo would have made finals last year and be top 4 this year not fighting for the 8

 

[ARCHIE66]

Also we had 13 25 and under playing. 5 of the over 25 year olds were Clark, butler (sorry), macrae, hill and wood who either had no impact on the game or made terrible mistakes. Took it right up to Sydney who are a very good side especially at full strength which they pretty much are. Should be proud.

 

[aussierulesrules]

Getting TDK trading marshall is essentially buying another first round pick
Especially when we have Dodson!
Greeves, mini pou and fincher is a very good draft haul

All that side of it is fine, but what the hell do we do with Dodson, if he’s smashing the door down next year, clubs are offering him huge contracts to leave, and we’re all-in on TDK for another 6 years?

We could lose a potential multi-AA ruckman, just so that we can spend 12 mil of our future cap on TDK, and get pick 25 for Ro.

That doesn’t seem like a good price to pay at all to me.

Think we’re past the point of no return now though.

 

[gringo2011]

Exactly
If ross was coaching freo right now with the talent on the list freo would have made finals last year and be top 4 this year not fighting for the 8

He's coached a side to one losing elimination final in the last 10 years. I think I probably helped spread the mythology of Ross as this master tactician as much as anyone but St Kilda is starting to wear that gloss off him.


The idea that Carlton or GWS would just start being awesome is based on a lot of assumption. Mick Malthouse, Dennis Pagan and plenty of others walked into a well financed club and sunk their reputations like a brick.

 

[PJays]

So you think this is a 2-11 list?

You think it is fine to be the only team to lose to WC this year?

Or to lose to Carlton when they had 1 healthy person on the bench for an entire game of football?

You pretty happy with the output this coaching group is getting from the playing group are you?

You must think the list is absolute garbage of that is the case. I certainly don't.

You love those cherries hey?

We're 5-12 not 2-11, and we've only played 6 games against teams outside top 9. That includes Sydney today, who are relatively healthy for the first time all year, and have won 4 of the last 5

Yes WC and Carlton were poor games

But we also smacked Freo by 61 points on a night records were tumbling- records of the unpleasant variety for Fremantle

We beat Richmond by 82- their biggest loss of the year

We stuck with Collingwood for 7/8ths of the game- a team who's 1.5 games and percentage clear on top

Today was a ripping effort despite the loss.

And this is a season we've debuted countless players (is anyone counting? How many? I'd like to know...) and we've consistently played 5 or 6 with <20/25 games experience

 

[Diehard Saint]

should have out emojis in then chief

You must have missed the sneaky /s at the bottom.

 

[gringo2011]

Also we had 13 25 and under playing. 5 of the over 25 year olds were Clark, butler (sorry), macrae, hill and wood who either had no impact on the game or made terrible mistakes. Took it right up to Sydney who are a very good side especially at full strength which they pretty much are. Should be proud.

It does still help direct kids and the older heads usually need to work selflessly to pick up some slack. There really needs to be a balance between infectious youth and disciplined mature players. Our biggest issue is a lack of depth in the players in their mid 20s.

 

[Diehard Saint]

He’s in a bit of a bind here cause if we finish higher than 15th he’s yet again got the late season, utterly pointless bounce.

Largely due to a much easier FIXture and far fewer injuries than the beginning of the season.
Don’t think you can necessarily lay that at his feet as a lot of that is out of his control.

 

[billings2paddy]

He's coached a side to one losing elimination final in the last 10 years. I think I probably helped spread the mythology of Ross as this master tactician as much as anyone but St Kilda is starting to wear that gloss off him.


The idea that Carlton or GWS would just start being awesome is based on a lot of assumption. Mick Malthouse, Dennis Pagan and plenty of others walked into a well financed club and sunk their reputations like a brick.

Carlton have been a rabble since the 2000's
Not even Pagan, Malthouse and Voss could change it
When TDK comes he will play under a quality coach for the first time in his career.
Our young brigade are all showing signs which is a direct reflection of our drafting, development and coaching.
The ships course is being corrected finally we may be on the right track time will tell

 

[phantom13]

At the risk of igniting a completely ****ing pointless Ross discussion again, I think the issue is it’s all extremes.

You’re either a die hard cultist and wanna see the club give him control of everything with a 100 year contract OR you’re a hater who believes a bunch of myths about ugly footy and shit scoring.

In reality right now on output we’re 15th in a year we were supposed to be building to top 8. We’ve shown some real genuine glimpses of future potential but also that could fall apart in a heartbeat (Nas leaves and king never gets right we’re likely no better in 2026).

He’s contracted until the end of 2027, there are no better options right now and we’ve handed him the whole footy department (everyone bar the trainee receptionist reports to him I believe). We’re invested and there’s no logical reason to abandon that for the time being.

Having said that, if we’re still cellar dwelling in 2027 all the green shoots in the world won’t count for much.

 

[Teflon]

He’s a liability farewell game imminent

Sign NAS first

 

[phantom13]

Largely due to a much easier FIXture and far fewer injuries than the beginning of the season.
Don’t think you can necessarily lay that at his feet as a lot of that is out of his control.

There’s always reasons.

A dead season bounce to finish 11th will no doubt inspire the Ross lovers, hell I bought into the hype last year.

It’ll count for nothing but a later draft pick in the long run though. Wins when you’re out of contention are totally ****ing pointless regardless of why we might get them.

 

[saintbill]

Exactly
If ross was coaching freo right now with the talent on the list freo would have made finals last year and be top 4 this year not fighting for the 8

See, this makes no sense to me whatsoever. Ross is already coaching a team. Said team is fourth last on the ladder, won 5 games of football and 2 in 3 months.

Would we somehow be even worse of Ross didn't grace us with his presence?

Only WC has a worse record than us the last 3 months and they beat us!

Ross has somehow managed to convince the media and the majority of Saints fans he always just doesn't have the cattle. He is always perceived to be squeezing every last drop out of a list.

Conversely, as Buckley raised during the week, is that correct or do Lyon coached teams look dour because a lot of players are asked to be "system" players?

Let me ask you this, if Lyon is coaching Pies or Hawks are they better or worse? I reckon it's fairly obvious they are substantially worse personally.

 

[Speck]

Most of our midfield seemed to hold onto the ball for an extra second or two and find an option rather than hack kick it forward as much which was good. The Garcia goal was a classic example where Marshall would usually bomb it.

We saw how much better we were with some structure and a big key forward. We looked less hesistant to go long compared to the last couple of months. I'm not convinced Heath ever makes it long term but he's worth persisting with for the next few weeks at least. Gives us a view of what a TDK/Marshall combo could do without King.

 

[Diehard Saint]

It does still help direct kids and the older heads usually need to work selflessly to pick up some slack. There really needs to be a balance between infectious youth and disciplined mature players. Our biggest issue is a lack of depth in the players in their mid 20s.

Maybe Dow can help here. Does he have a contract for next year?
I’d be giving him a year. Certainly over Jones.

 

[Teflon]

His last 7 years has involved 2 rebuilds at 2 clubs. He's pumped games into kids at both clubs. I'm not comfortable but also understanding. Our FIXture has skewed some of those numbers too I reckon in terms of who we have/haven't played.

Disappointing result today but don't think there was any magic coaching box trick with the team we have out there. Would have loved a 100% fit Pou and King out there to see what difference they may have made structurally.

It’s pointless mate
Bill just does win/loss - context ? Wasted on him
It’s W/L that’s it
That’s not saying you accept losing forever it IS saying context like where this list is at matters
6 kids less than 20 ganes today ….hes playing the future if he keeps growing that and we see improvement I’m ok with it
Last games the effort and intensity has been there - sone of those games we win with a full side against top 8 teams
Meanwhile the Bulldogs who dine out on bottom teams and us cabt get it done against top sides when it matters ….interesting with the lost they have
Lyon doing ok

 

[AirWinmar]

There’s always reasons.

A dead season bounce to finish 11th will no doubt inspire the Ross lovers, hell I bought into the hype last year.

It’ll count for nothing but a later draft pick in the long run though. Wins when you’re out of contention are totally ****ing pointless regardless of why we might get them.

We were screwed with a very hard fixture early on but it leaves us with a soft draw at the end of the season. I see it as that the afl in trying to screw us may actually work the other way because we now have a fairly soft draw to finish off and we will hopefully get some wins and maybe belt a couple and go into next season full of confidence. Our young team really need some good wins to finish off the season imo!!