Preview AFL GF 2025: Geelong V Brisbane Sat 27th Sept MCG 2:30 pm

[cats_09]

Resource Post - I'll endeavour to update this post with info and links relevant to what's happening over the coming week

- Meet Up, Live Sites & Viewing Party discussion

Meet Up - 2025 Meet Up Thread - Grand Final Edition... including Live Sites info

https://gardenstatehotel.com.au/ 101 Flinders Lane. It opens at noon on Sunday.

www.bigfooty.com

- Grand Final Ticket discussion (please don't start separate threads for ticket sales)

Resource - 2025 Finals Ticket Discussion - Grand Final ticket discussion

Where can I find my Cats Membership Barcodes? OR When do we get Cats Membership Barcodes? Checked online : geelongcats.com.au website and Cats Mobile App

www.bigfooty.com

 

[catsfootyfan89]

The other thing to remember is that with 12 minutes to go we were only about 20 points up, and they fought hard to have many entries and 3 bad misses. We then pulled away although our defence was tiring, watch again and you'll see less stuck tackle and effort. I want that fat lady screaming her lungs out at the last change, really don't want to get run down.

Here's a stat that might make you feel a little better on this front. (Heard this on SEN)

This season, when you look at scores in time-on across all games, the top teams typically have positive differentials. That is to say, the good teams typically outscore their opponents at the end of quarters when they start to tire out.

Here are the differentials across the entire season for scores kicked in time-on in all games:
5th GWS +144 pts
4th Adelaide +155 pts
3rd GC +158 pts
2nd Bulldogs +166 pts
1st Geelong +422 pts

In the dying minutes of games, across the season, we are more than twice as good as all other teams in the league. We're over three times as good as Brisbane. Also, this has happened 4 times in Champion Data history. 3 of those times, the best team won the flag. The other time was Geelong in '08.

We're obviously beatable, but you'll need to outrun the Cats for four quarters to beat us. If Brisbane manage to do this against a primed side with Neale on a torn calf, Dunkley with a dodgy foot, and several others struggling, it'll be a huge effort for them.

We're a lot fitter and faster than the rest of the league. Here's hoping it brings us another cup.

 

[joe444]

The sides in general are evenly matched and play a solid brand.

If this were last year, I'd agree, but not now. Losing Daniher has hurt them all year. I think our brand is way more flexible, too. I mean, if the Lions want to do something different from what they've been doing for the past 3 years, they're welcome to it. And I think there are at least 3 players in their 23 who don't get a game for us (Reville, Gallup, Gardiner)


.. and it will be the third time in his career (counting Sidebottom's desultory effort) that he's been tagged. He's showed no sign of knowing how to deal with it. Not tagging him would be a tremendous relief to him, I imagine, and it means tagging Neale who knows exactly how to handle it and is playing hurt anyway.

For me, the idea of Brisbane "learning" is music to my ears because that's code to me for over-reacting and abandoning some of their baked-in style of play. The idea of their low-pressure, ball-oriented mids trying to rough up or hassle our tags fills me with joy. Can you imagine a Lions mid standing one of our mids and monitoring Mullin at the same time? Please, by all means, adjust your positioning even by 1% less than you normally would when just trying to win the ball. Stand that extra inch away from Holmes or Danger or Smith or Atkins.

I know a lot has been made of results flipping from QF to PF, but since 2003 they all involve Victorian teams losing in Perth and winning at the MCG.

If Lions win, I'll tip my cap to a herculian effort by a great side and a coach I have underrated. But let's not make it easier for them by trying to win with Plan B.

 

[Mattttty]

I'd keep it simple.

Mullin tags McCluggage
MOC tags Rayner
Atkins head to head with Washcroft

Trying to be clever and releasing McCluggage would be a mistake. He's their destroyer.

Exactly. And Mullin didn't beat McCluggage because he surprised him. He beat him because he's an excellent tagger. No reason to think he can't do it again.

 

[dazbroncos]

What are the best radio stations to sync with the TV for the Grand Final? I'm used to watching Kayo so find the ads annoying. Would at least like an audio option with fewer ads than Channel 7. Can you sync ABC?

Krock and they have controllable delay .

Go Catters

 

[CatToTheFuture]

I don’t know but I reckon that is likely where they end up (after lots of debate!). Beauty is that they don’t have to stick with same thing whole game. If working yep - if not they can switch around.

To me Andrews is more of a wild card than all of them

Yeah for me Andrews is like that part of the avengers movie where the bad guys are all like "we've got an army, what have you got" and iron Man is just like "we've got a hulk" and the big dude just smashes in.

If we just hand it to him they'll rebound and score from the goal square

 

[joe444]

Krock and they have controllable delay .

Go Catters

SEN's app too. It's FTA option is locked to 7 seconds which is more or less Channel 7's delay.
Oddly enough, the DAB Radio of the ABC is usually in sync by sheer accident.

But surely this is K-Rock time . Tap the + button about 5-6 times and you're reasonably close.

 

[fpm84]

Holmes, Smith, COS, Bowes, Clark, Dempsey, Mannagh, Humphries, Martin, Neale etc have never played in a GF.

Smith played in the 2021 GF, and was BOG in two finals for the Dogs that year.

I’m confident that the older players in that group like Martin, Mannagh, Bowes and I’d say Holmes as an established A-grader will handle the occasion well.

There is the chance of stage fright for the COS, Clark, Humphries types I think, but this is balanced by the Lions’ Gallop (5 career games), Marshall (10), Reville (26) and L Ashcroft (26). The latter hasn’t had more than 15 touches in any of their finals FWIW.

 

[joe444]

Smith played in the 2021 GF, and was BOG in two finals for the Dogs that year.

I’m confident that the older players in that group like Martin, Mannagh, Bowes and I’d say Holmes as an established A-grader will handle the occasion well.

There is the chance of stage fright for the COS, Clark, Humphries types I think, but this is balanced by the Lions’ Gallop (5 career games), Marshall (10), Reville (26) and L Ashcroft (26). The latter hasn’t had more than 15 touches in any of their finals FWIW.

Plus I'd say having played in front of 90,000+ twice in the last three weeks is preparation enough.

Can't think of many teams that legitimately have had stage fright in a Grand Final. Along with the "it's better to be battle-hardened" theory, I think it's a myth.

 

[Mr Meow]

Smith played in the 2021 GF, and was BOG in two finals for the Dogs that year.

I’m confident that the older players in that group like Martin, Mannagh, Bowes and I’d say Holmes as an established A-grader will handle the occasion well.

There is the chance of stage fright for the COS, Clark, Humphries types I think, but this is balanced by the Lions’ Gallop (5 career games), Marshall (10), Reville (26) and L Ashcroft (26). The latter hasn’t had more than 15 touches in any of their finals FWIW.

A few people are getting confused between the value of finals experience and grand final experience. The latter is basically irrelevant.

Go back and look at premiership sides of the AFL era that weren't the 2nd/3rd flags of a dynasty. You'll find very little previous grand final experience.

On the other hand finals experience is very valuable and ideally most of your side have at least a few in the bank, with a core more experienced than that. We tick those boxes, with several "new" players now having reached 4 finals.

Only COS and Clark are relative "newbies" with 2 and 1 (proper) finals games.

Then we still have half of the 2022 premiership side, who are almost all seasoned finals players.

 

[Generalissimo]

Only COS and Clark are relative "newbies" with 2 and 1 (proper) finals games.

Neither have looked overawed in their two finals either. COS has just stuck to his role without fanfare like he always does, and I was impressed how well Clark adjusted after getting thrown in earlier than planned in the Prelim.

 

[joe444]

If we just hand it to him they'll rebound and score from the goal square

 

[CatToTheFuture]

View attachment 2437698

Those season statistics? Are you able to filter for score launches against us specifically?

 

[MYOB]

Hi, I'm posting this for my wife and daughter, and rather than sifting through 38 pages, is there an after game event for the winners this year in Yarra Park, like there was in 2022.

 

[fpm84]

Neither have looked overawed in their two finals either. COS has just stuck to his role without fanfare like he always does, and I was impressed how well Clark adjusted after getting thrown in earlier than planned in the Prelim.

Yep, I was throwing their names out as the two youngest, least finals experienced members of our side. Just pointing out that our inexperience is more than matched by their younger players - they have three first year players playing tomorrow and we have zero.

I think the way Scott coaches this side is so methodical, with every scenario thought through, that every player knows what they need to do to contribute. Even when we have things against us - like Rayner free kicks in the QF, or being 20 points down early against the Hawks, we just compose ourselves and stick to the gameplan.

 

[Mr Meow]

Those season statistics? Are you able to filter for score launches against us specifically?

4 in the QF.
2 at GMHBA.
3 at the Gabba.

His impact has gone above that though. Something like measuring his intercepts and rebound 50s against our marks inside 50 would be a better guide.

Although he was good in the QF we still absolutely dominated marks inside 50. Whereas the previous 2 games we really did struggle to play around him.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

4 in the QF.
2 at GMHBA.
3 at the Gabba.

His impact has gone above that though. Something like measuring his intercepts and rebound 50s against our marks inside 50 would be a better guide.

Although he was good in the QF we still absolutely dominated marks inside 50. Whereas the previous 2 games we really did struggle to play around him.

Yeah I think I'm emotionally scarred from the previous 2, and combining that with how many goals they got from point blank and the resulting accuracy while we sprayed everything.

 

[Mr Meow]

Yeah I think I'm emotionally scarred from the previous 2, and combining that with how many goals they got from point blank and the resulting accuracy while we sprayed everything.

The QF was a mirror image of the general play in the GMHBA game. In the final our midfielders dominated and used the ball better. We pressured them and forced them into mistakes. Our slick transitions + runners killed them and our defenders were mostly on top. All things you could say of the Lions when they visited Geelong.

I expect both teams at their best and therefore this weekend to resemble neither of those games.

 

[joe444]

Qualifying Final:

His impact has gone above that though. Something like measuring his intercepts and rebound 50s against our marks inside 50 would be a better guide.

Qualifying Final
Andrews: 3 intercept marks; 4 rebound 50s (Zorko: 11!)
Geelong marks inside 50: 21 (Bris 6)

Round 15 (GMHBA)
Andrews: 5 intercept marks; 1 rebound 50s (Zorko: 11 again!)
Geelong marks inside 50: 13 (Bris 16)

Round 3 (Gabba) <<< source of the trauma for many <<<
Andrews: 5 intercept marks; 8 rebound 50s (Zorko: 8)
Geelong marks inside 50: 10 (Bris 7)


My gut instinct remains that we can't solve every problem and Andrews always looks more annoying because he intercept marks. We did what we needed last time and doing weird sh!t like playing Blicavs on him damages us, not them. Zorko is the one I'd like to put the clamps on.

 

[Mr Meow]

Qualifying Final:

Qualifying Final
Andrews: 3 intercept marks; 4 rebound 50s (Zorko: 11!)
Geelong marks inside 50: 21 (Bris 6)

Round 15 (GMHBA)
Andrews: 5 intercept marks; 1 rebound 50s (Zorko: 11 again!)
Geelong marks inside 50: 13 (Bris 16)

Round 3 (Gabba) <<< source of the trauma for many <<<
Andrews: 5 intercept marks; 8 rebound 50s (Zorko: 8)
Geelong marks inside 50: 10 (Bris 7)


My gut instinct remains that we can't solve every problem and Andrews always looks more annoying because he intercept marks. We did what we needed last time and doing weird sh!t like playing Blicavs on him damages us, not them. Zorko is the one I'd like to put the clamps on.

Andrews is often the one who dishes off to Zorko or spoils for him to collect the crumbs. I also said intercepts, not intercept marks. Plus I added that he wasn't a big problem last time. The 2 times before that he was.

When Stanley and Blicavs play together lately, the latter spends some time forward. That's been in the works for a while regardless of Andrews.

We don't play specialist shutdown small forward roles on defenders like Zorko. They will all roll onto him and aim to apply pressure. He will always get a lot of ball.

 

[joe444]

PS: Who has played on Zorko? Close. Zorko destroyed him in round 15 (33 possessions to 9), beat him in the QF (35 possessions to 18)

So they'll send him to Close again.

Man, if we could stop fretting about doing weird things with Andrews and just tell Close that he has one job to do tomorrow. Stick to him.

 

[Gavin Excell]

You'd think given its the 7th GF in 18 years that as a fan it would become easier to cope with the anxiety

I think I'll copy my proven and successful strategy of 2022 by mowing the lawns and keeping busy/distracted

 

[joe444]

Andrews is often the one who dishes off to Zorko or spoils for him to collect the crumbs. I also said intercepts, not intercept marks. Plus I added that he wasn't a big problem last time. The 2 times before that he was.

When Stanley and Blicavs play together lately, the latter spends some time forward. That's been in the works for a while regardless of Andrews.

We don't play specialist shutdown small forward roles on defenders like Zorko. They will all roll onto him and aim to apply pressure. He will always get a lot of ball.

I tried to give the stats you were after agenda-free shakes hands emoji / aren't we agreeing with each other emoji

 

[Generalissimo]

When Stanley and Blicavs play together lately, the latter spends some time forward. That's been in the works for a while regardless of Andrews.

Stanley drifts forward a bit too. Keeps the oppo ruckman accountable, and Rhys is still a good contested mark.

 

[MisterMarcus]

Dear Doggies Fans,

If what we say on this thread offends and upsets you so much, then please do not read it.

It will be better for your mental health....plus it's kinda dumb to go actively searching for things that you know will make you angry.

Regards

Cats Fans.

 

[joe444]

I also said intercepts, not intercept marks ...

Qualifying Final:
Andrews intercepts: 9 (most by a Lion)
Round 15:
Andrews intercepts: 11 (equal #1 with Zorko)
Round 3:
Andrews intercepts: 9 (equal #1 with Zorko)