List Mgmt. 2025 List Management Discussion - Part IV

[Hubnester]

2025 List Management Discussion - Part 4

Now that our season is over, and news is starting to break - it's time for a fresh thread.

This thread is to discuss all things list management - trades, draft, free agency, delistings and more.
As we are now officially in our off-season, we'll be wanting to keep this thread more strictly on-topic than the previous iterations.
Be respectful. You are allowed to disagree with someone - but play the ball, not the man. Repeat offenders will have their posting rights revoked.

Thanks to Lore once again for this incredibly useful spreadsheet.

2025 KEY DATES
Free Agency Period: Friday, October 3rd - Friday, October 10th
Trade Period: Monday, October 6th - Wednesday, October 15th
AFL Draft: Wednesday, November 19th - Thursday, November 20th

See Also:
2025 Year in Review Rumours & Confirmed Movements 2025 Draft Discussion
​

 

[gringo2011]

Thats fine if you don't rate McKenzie, but it's not Steele and a future first for McKenzie. I just broke the deal down for you.

As for the project mid, literally any player we take with that pick is a project. McKenzie is three years in. He has played some really good footy in his first three years. Played a big break out game prior to breaking his hand and then just not got going again.

I'd definitely take him over anyone we would likely get with a pick in the teens, but each to their own.

And then academy and FA compo comes out. The AFL throw in priority picks and it blows out to mid 20s. We have a bad year and could turn pick 6 into 25 for a project player and throw in Steele for free.

 

[dudeintheswamp]

Even God goes to Tony when he wants the inside word on what's happening at the club.

Tony is that good.

Bloody hell I didn't know Clapton followed the Saints. Cool! We should get him to do a gig at Moorabbin, you know we'll get Molly, we'll get the Hulk, maybe that weather woman, it'll be great!

 

[billings2paddy]

Maybe I'm in the minority but I'm hoping Geelong come back with a better offer for Marshall.

The only thing that made me think paying massive money for TDK was worth it was the fact that we might be able to turn Marshall into a younger ruck as well as some good draft picks to help fill other holes.

I think the curnow offer was a ruse
It is significantly less than what sydney are doing
It was never going to be close to be accepted
Future first and a second or third with possible swaps should work with marshall

 

[billings2paddy]

Finally some truths and common sense

 

[stavro#4]

Maybe I'm in the minority but I'm hoping Geelong come back with a better offer for Marshall.

The only thing that made me think paying massive money for TDK was worth it was the fact that we might be able to turn Marshall into a younger ruck as well as some good draft picks to help fill other holes.

Deal is alive from what I’m hearing.

In Geelongs court. We haven’t walked away from anything to do with Rowan.

 

[_Maximus_12]

Oh Geelong, you silly buggers

 

[Dr Spaceman]

Who's this Tony47 guy? Insider? I'm not a really regular around here lol

Not sure which one he is but this is his latest hit

 

[saint66au]

I think the curnow offer was a ruse
It is significantly less than what sydney are doing
It was never going to be close to be accepted
Future first and a second or third with possible swaps should work with marshall

What are Sydney doing?

 

[Enclosed_Animal]

With GC shedding multiple contracted players, is there a salary cap issue up there? Especially now they are looking to bring in Trac, who will demand a bomb. Flanders and Answorth might have fixed it, but maybe there is more?

Pure speculation, but is the mystery target Tony is referring to Bing? He is a pre agent, and they could already have a sense he is likely to walk next year. Does having his salary off the books help to bring in Trac and give Humphrey and pay bump?

So we do the Flanders deal as a good faith opening. Now we are trying to get to the table to discuss Bing?

GC will want to make sure they have both the Trac and JUH stuff locked away before even engaging.
We are holding onto Marshall until we know for sure whether we are a shot at getting Bing. If we are, then maybe we let him walk to the cats? Explains our silence re Marshall. We are happy to listen, but waiting to see if we can pull this off first. Then we reengage if we need the currency

GC still have 3 tall forwards with Reed, Walter and JUH, but shed a 4th one - and the one on big money. We get a genuine second forwad next to Ming, rather then a second ruck

We give 2, or 3 first round picks, which is more than GC get in any FA deal. They might be convinced that they will be good next year (so their FA pick will suck) and that we wont be good (and they are happy to death ride both our 26/27 F1 picks).

Its pure conspiracy theory. But that would explain both walking away from Aleer (saying we cant spend more future picks) and the silence towards the cats on the Marshall negotiation. With the momentum we have, it would be the perfect time to try and sell someone. Why not Bing?

Likely a pipe dream. But it is the deal I would be hunting if I was St.Kilda management, and knew I still had a week to make something happen

 

[dudeintheswamp]

All seems to have gone quiet with Humphrey in Melbourne meeting clubs. Guess everyone is too busy shit canning the Saints right now but I still can't help but wonder if there's something there...

 

[bird_man]

And then academy and FA compo comes out. The AFL throw in priority picks and it blows out to mid 20s. We have a bad year and could turn pick 6 into 25 for a project player and throw in Steele for free.

That's a doom's day way off looking at things I guess.

Fair chance our first rounder is going to blow out as happens every year and I'd also like to see the club back itself to at least improve slightly with this list.

As I said, CMac is less of a project then the kid we take in the draft.

Each to their own but seperate I'd do CMac for a future first in a heart beat.

I also think we are no chance of getting better than a second rounder for Steele.

Happy to leave it there.

 

[ThomasR]

I genuinely don't understand how you or anyone can make this call with a straight face. There are multiple financial executives, tonnes of staff and millions of dollars involved. Do you think we don't have 10-15 different permutations and combinations of player salary projections mapped out and planned years in advance? 100's of scenarios regarding what would happen if "x" player signs with us? If Steele leaves or stays, Marshall stays or leaves.

We're trading picks in 2027 for crying out loud.

The business i work at has rolling projections on everything from CAPEX to Overheads updated daily for the next 2 years and we are 10th of the size of an AFL club, with 1/10th of the manpower in charge of it.

Do you honestly think that a professional AFL club realised they didn't have enough money for a player 5 days into the trade period? Or that we were relying on a player leaving (Marshall/Steele) even though we have barely tried to offload them?
Seriously? This isn't FIFA Career Mode

sure. and in the vast majority of those permutations, we would have had room for Aleer. but it seems we've landed in a universe where we don't, and shut it down as soon as that became apparent

with so many balls in the air, things have been more volatile than usual. Flanders was still being "whined and dined" not that long ago & had much better offers. Ryan was a contracted player. we weren't initially in the frame for Silvagni. Marshall requested a trade and Steele was being encouraged to find another club. Wilkie was threatening to walk. the odds of having all of those guys on the list next year were small enough to string Aleer along, even if he remained our lowest priority.

I am not trying to suggest that it's purely $$$ and a binary decision between Aleer/Steele or Aleer/Marshall. but West Coast yielding on Ryan, Steele reluctant to find a suitor and the Cats refusing to pay overs for Marshall/moving onto Curnow might have been the straw that broke the camel's back yesterday. or maybe an unforeseen opportunity has arisen and taken priority, leading us to anticipate not having room for him, and we've tried to give him as much time as possible to find another landing spot. bad karma yes, but you do what you can to improve your list

how else do you answer the question of why we completely opted out of pursuing him half way through a trade period, despite saying on Monday we expected it to get done? there is a big difference between squabbling over picks and no longer wanting a player at all. we can plan ahead for however many years you want but things can still change in a matter of hours

 

[stavro#4]

Saints TV oh boy!

 

[beside the seaside]

And then academy and FA compo comes out. The AFL throw in priority picks and it blows out to mid 20s. We have a bad year and could turn pick 6 into 25 for a project player and throw in Steele for free.

It kinda worries me if Hawks are willing to get rid of him to get Merrett. They're not stupid. Reality is CMac ended the season playing ok footy in the VFL.

 

[goodie23]

I think the curnow offer was a ruse
It is significantly less than what sydney are doing
It was never going to be close to be accepted
Future first and a second or third with possible swaps should work with marshall

The Curnow offer is a joke - wonder how much they bribed the AFL media to try to pump it up ("record-breaking trade offer", "the Cats have made a huge play for Curnow", "No player has ever been traded for three straight first-round picks. The offer does not include the Cats getting back any draft picks in return.")

It's a trade akin to using junk picks to pick up draft points, 3 picks in the 20's for a much higher value target.

 

[stavro#4]

Saints TV is Cleary hinting this aswell?

 

[SainterinSydney]

It kinda worries me if Hawks are willing to get rid of him to get Merrett. They're not stupid. Reality is CMac ended the season playing ok footy in the VFL.

It is Hawk FOMO. They want their big shot captain from another club. They will regret letting Cmac go!

 

[Sippa]

Every time I hear Barrett or anyone else say pick 19 seems about fair for Marshall I want to put my head through a wall

If someone knocks on your door and says I want to buy your house and offers you exact value but you don’t want to move you say no way . If they offer you 600k more than value you might go hmm alright maybe I’m happy to move and bank the extra

Talk of fair value is complete garbage . What he’s worth and what he’s worth to us are two different things . If he’s contracted and we don’t want to let him go why would we accept what he’s worth . These morons never comprehend we are happy to keep him

On the other hand if Geelong think he’s the missing piece and could snag them a flag then they should be happy to pay more than fair value because the value to them is the ruckman they desperately need

 

[Mstr Strokesman]

With GC shedding multiple contracted players, after already dumping Bowes, my guess is there is a salary cap issue up there. Especially now they are looking to bring in Trac, who will demand a bomb.

Pure speculation, but could our mystery target that Tony is referring to be Bing? He is a pre agent, and they could already have a sense he is walking next year. Maybe they want the salary off the books, to bring in Trac and give Humphrey and pay bump.

So we do they Flanders deal as a good faith opening. Now we are at the table discussing Bing.

GC want to make sure they have both the Trac and JUH stuff locked away before they say yes.
We are holding onto Marshall until we know for sure we are getting Bing. Then we let him walk to the cats? Explains our silence re Marshall. We are still happy to listen, but waiting to see if we can pull this off first. Then we reengage if we need the currency

GC still have 3 tall forwards with Reed, Walter and JUH, but shed a 4th one - and the one on big money. We get a genuine second forwad next to Ming, rather then a second ruck

We give 2, or 3 first round picks, which is more than GC get in a FA deal. They might be convinced that they will be good next year (so their FA pick will suck) and that we wont be good (and they are happy to death ride our 26/27 F1 picks).

Its pure conspiracy theory. But that would explain both walking away from Aleer (ie we cant spend more future picks) and the hold on the Marshall negotiation. It is the deal I would be hunting if I was St.Kilda management

I don’t think 2 Kings can work in the 1 side.Not enough defensive pressure.

 

[stavro#4]

Ok let’s make it a 4 way deal:

Essendon get: pick 9 Geelong 1st 2026 Lewis and Steele

Lose: Merrett F2 2026

Hawks Get: Merrett

Lose: Cmac pick 8 Mitch Lewis

Geelong Get: Marshall + ess F2 2026

Lose: first rounder 2025 & 2026

Saints get: Cmac & 2025 Geelong first

Lose: Marshall and Steele

 

[Dr Spaceman]

Josh Jenkins

"It's (out of $) the only conclusion you can come to"

He is ******ed. Genuine. ******ed.

Run Joshua Run!

 

[Linton Street Saint]

Ok let’s make it a 4 way deal:

Essendon get: pick 9 Geelong 1st 2026 Lewis and Steele

Lose: Merrett F2 2026

Hawks Get: Merrett

Lose: Cmac pick 8 Mitch Lewis

Geelong Get: Marshall + ess F2 2026

Lose: first rounder 2025 & 2026

Saints get: Cmac & 2025 Geelong first

Lose: Marshall and Steele

Not super stoked but could live with it.

I'm just really married to making Geelong pay through the nose for Marshall, it's about time they paid their dues at the trade table.

 

[triggering bro]

I’d be content to move on a 30 year old Marshall and a 30 year old Steele and significant salary for McKenzie and change.

Mega trade something like this:

Geelong trade their 2025 first and 2026 second for Marshall

Hawks trade CMac, their 2026 first and Geelong’s 2025 first for Merrett

Saints trade Marshall and Steele for CMac and Geelong’s 2026 second

Ess trade Merrett for Geelong’s 2025 first, Hawks 2026 first and Steele

Ess the big winners but I feel they need to be to make this deal happen as they have the most to lose. We could possibly receive something back from Ess such as a 2/3rd round pick.

 

[stavro#4]

Not super stoked but could live with it.

I'm just really married to making Geelong pay through the nose for Marshall, it's about time they paid their dues at the trade table.

Our net dealings would be sliding from pick 11/12 to 22ish in 2025

Our 2026 second rounder for Ryan and a 2027 third rounder

Heath for a 2027 4th rounder

Steele for Flanders

Marshall for Cmac.

 

[phantom13]

View attachment 2452355

God almighty, you'd think we committed some kind of crime against humanity against Leek.

Yeh I reckon we handled the business poorly but this is ****ing ridiculous