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List Mgmt. Draft thread - 2025 (remaining picks: 29, 34)

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Live draft hand
R1: 1 (Duursma), 4 (CDT), 19 (Lindsay)
R2: 29, 34
RD: 1

Draft picks pre-draft
R1: 1, 2, 13
R2: 34, 41
RD: 1

List spots available
Main list: 2 (includes Duursma, CDT, Lindsay)
Cat A Rookie list: 1 (expecting Robertson, Macrae and Schoenberg to join as SSP signings)
Cat B Rookie list: 1

Draft order

Draft prospect video highlights (thanks to noobermensch)

Rookie Me Central 2025 Draft Guide

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2025 AFL Draft Guide

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Matthew Clarke on Gettable 17/11


Cal Twomey’s Phantom Draft

 
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So I hear a lot about the term "best available" this time of year. Yes, the US term when considering 270 NFL draftees who are fully grown men having been in professional programmes for 2 to 4 years and there are multiple books written on each prospect and the science and analytics that go into it make our combine look silly. They do not always get it right (hello Tom Brady and Brock Purdy). But there is a higher success rate in the first 2 rounds.

"Draft for talent and trade for needs" is another. A trade system that allows players to be traded in contract and almost without consent. A contracting process that allows clubs to bank salary cap and then within 2 years go from rubbish to contenders.

The AFL has tried to take on many of the NFL aspects with salary cap, draft and free agency. But the biggest issue for me is the age players are drafted. At 18, it is really hard to put up an argument on many players that will hold in the fulness of time as to exact Best Available.

I will go back to an average year in 2020.
October 2020 Cal had the following form guide
  1. Ugle Hagan
  2. McDonald
  3. Hollands (Elijah)
  4. Thilthorpe
  5. Granger Barras
  6. Campbell
  7. Phillips
  8. Bruhn
At 22 - Gulden
At 25 - Zane Trew

If you think this is the Covid years, I went back to 2019. Cal in August got it much better at the top (Rowell, Anderson, Young, Serong were up there)
then
7. Bordie Kemp
8. Fischer McAsey
9. Dev Robertson
13. Dylan Stephens
14. Luke Jackson
15. Will Gould
25. Will Day

Some other anomalies from the draft itself
  • 2018 - Chance Jones, Jye Caldwell at 11 then Butters at 12. There was not a lot of arms up saying "Wrong".
  • 2022 - Tsatsas was ranked by Cal Sept as 3 and went at 5, Matthew Jefferson ranked at 10 by Cal and went at 15, Alwyn Davey was ranked by Cal at 15 and went at 45. (The form guide from Cal was September)

I am not saying that drafting is easy. The ability to translate a player at 17 and 18 into a mature man playing AFL is hard. There is a load of guess work, far more than in the NFL

Therefore to stand on ceremony and say that CDT is clearly the second best in the open draft, I smile. We get so caught up with 6 months worth of football. Or in Robey's case, 3 months.

I will continue to want to use the draft to list manage and needs will play a massive part in it. Especially for interstate teams that do not have the high volume of players drawn back to Victoria.

I have put in the updates I believe will happen. I have assumed we take Duursma at 1, even though we are uncertain here he will play . However I left pick 2 and pick 13 out of the grid.

Ask yourself, with pick 2, should we go "best available" with a second uncertain where he plays CDT? Then go with 13 (9 if we can bundle up) and hope there is a mid that slides.

OR

1. Could we package up 2 and 13 and get 2 midfielders from the Don's picks.
2. Do we guarantee a high quality proved midfielder at 2 even though some are enamoured with a unicorn, as fixing contested football start with the midfield and we have gaps?

Are we going to keep Harley happy with his fulltime midfield support coming from Hall, Dev, Graham and Yeo?

You have 2 blue pins - one pick 2 and one pick 13. In which box do you think you will place it? Best available or greatest need?
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daddy_4_eyes said:
Carlton can trade out picks 9 &/or 11, match bids then trade back into 2025 draft.

Any chance you go for another drive and come back with some hypothetical options for Carlton here?
Click to expand...

Blues need to line up two clubs for live trades.

Depending when the bid comes.

If it comes before 9 then they trade 11 into 2026 for a 1st. Port will be keen.

Then trade 9 to us for 13 and 34.

13 gets gobbled up matching Dean.

Blues get another 2nd to use this draft.
 
uptheWC said:
What’s the best possible outcome we’re gonna get from having CDT on the list? A serviceable ruck who can follow up in the midfield to an extent and provide a point of difference in link up play and around the ground.

What’s the best outcome we’re gonna get from having Sharp on the list? An AA level ball winning midfielder with great hands on the inside and elite tackling pressure.

Which is more likely to eventuate? I think the Sharp outcome. Which is more valuable at pick 2? I also think the Sharp outcome.
Click to expand...
I don't follow the draft too much so not an expert but from what I've read here is that the hope would be:

CDT - Luke Jackson type Ruck/Mid (I'm aware he doesn't have the same pre-draft form as Jackson did)
Sharp - Tom Green type ball winning midfielder.

I would say the latter is more likely to eventuate but the former is more valuable.
 
daddy_4_eyes said:
I really don't understand this kind of take from posters on here. At most, posters watched some highlights and at worst are just parroting what they've read. Even those posters on here taht that watch underage football are just amateurs.

How can the concensus #2 pick be this roundly dismissed?

He is tall & athletic beyond what most 2004cm 18 year olds are, has good skills, can football. Is there any possibility that professional talent scouts are seeing what he brings to the table long term, and not assuming he's the finished product at age 18? Whereas most talls are said to take longer to develop, he's seen as being able to play AFL in year 1, let alone what he'll be when he's in his mid-20s? That his size, athleticism and skills fit into the what the future of AFL is?


Not directing it specifically at you GoEaglesGoSGIO. But gee wizz Yeahnahmate was spot on with his STI comment.
Click to expand...

It’s because we spent years not drafting mids, and finally have the picks to draft an elite mid, but it just so happens to be in the one draft where there isn’t a ready made inside mid considered at very top of open draft.

People are trying to justify why we shouldn’t/won’t take the player almost every draft watcher has as the second best available talent in the open draft.

It’s a thing called denial.
 

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Shueygod said:
You think CDT is rated at pick 2 because that’s his ceiling?

Some of you blokes are clueless, I personally would rather trade down than grab him but acting as if the bloke doesn’t have a top 2 ceiling in the draft (while sharps is rated low for his draft position) is wild. If Sharps ceiling is as you described, CDT’s is best in the league, such is the difference.
Click to expand...
We’ve all heard about his athleticism, but no one’s been able to actually describe what his ceiling is and how it would bring value to our team. Is his ceiling more valuable than a ball winning and elite defensive midfielder, which is Sharp’s ceiling?
 
I think most supporters would be happy to trade 2 and 13 for 5 and 6. Maybe the fact that we'd all be happy, means Essendon won't offer it?

We desperately need high end mids and there are unlikely to be any left at 13.

I would be willing to miss out on CDT if it gave us an elite mid prospect.

I think Duursma, Sharp, (pick 13 slider mid preference), would be a fine outcome. Do think we are leaving some value on the board (by not splitting 2), but don't want to miss out on Sharp.

Secondly, if we are being crazy with the player comparisons:

Who wouldn't take Luke Jackson, Tom Green and pick 6 over Brendan Goddard, Tom Green and pick 13 ? :drunk:
 
Dom sheed pocket said:
It’s because we spent years not drafting mids, and finally have the picks to draft an elite mid, but it just so happens to be in the one draft where there isn’t a ready made inside mid considered at very top of open draft.

People are trying to justify why we shouldn’t/won’t take the player almost every draft watcher has as the second best available talent in the open draft.

It’s a thing called denial.
Click to expand...
Except there is.
 
One thing lost in this contagious negative group think about CDT is that he is highly competitive and is far from “soft”.

We can argue all day about his ceiling and whether he’s right for us but having this intangible in his kit bag is certainly a positive and will be massive in where he gets to as a player.
 
Midfields aren't built in a draft and they really aren't built in a weak draft like this one is said to be. I'm happy with bids on the Gold Coast and Brisbane NGAs, then Duursma and CDT, whoever at 13, then Banfield and the NGAs.

Then hit what is meant to be a stronger draft with another top 3 pick next year.
 
The full season highlights series is back for another year, and who better to kick things off with than the guy who has emerged as the clear number 1 pick in most people’s estimation, Willem Duursma!

Will the thrill is a rangy and athletic young man with the ability and confidence to impose himself on games and inspire his team with game breaking moments of play. His rapid improvement this year as a midfielder cemented his pick 1 candidacy, and he’s also shown he’s fully capable of impacting in the forward line and defence.

 

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Dom sheed pocket said:
This is also part of the denial, folks trying to convince themselves that Sharp (and or Robey) are on the same level as CDT and therefore an alternative choice to CDT at 2.

Yawn.
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Nope, Sharp is more of a need then CDT but doesnt have the same ceiling.
Cummings on the other hand is a better prospect than CDT and is 2 on my open board.
Ill back someone like Monocle opinion more then anyone elses on this board
 
Eastern Rangers said:
Hybrid athlete with great skills, that's rare in a young ruck. B.Williams is a more explosive type and lacks CDT skills. Clubs will believe they can teach him the craft as he's pretty competitive type.

His deficiencies are obvious given his lack of aerial attack and the fact he's more smooth moving than explosive in game play. The problem stems from talking him up as a unique athletic talent when there similar athletes who haven't performed at AFL with similar junior careers.

Placing that pressure on him is unfair and unjustified.
Click to expand...
BW lacks footy nous and that is why he is bang average or worse, and will always be. Footy nous can't be taught whereas skills and craft can.. CDT appears to have that footy nous
 

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twce13 said:
I been trying to understand the hype behind CDT myself.

But say what you will about Cal Twoomey, but he is well connected in recruitment circles, so the hype must be real in said circles.

There’s group think that CDT is vastly overrated, I’m guilty too. But there must be something special about him for all this hype. It doesn’t make sense otherwise.
Click to expand...

Any bloke 200cm or over who can turn quicker than a B double and reasonably clean off the deck is hyped to buggery

In a supposably weak draft dominated by South Aussies & Northern Academy guns its a given the filthy vic media tragics will be hailing CDT as some kind of Dean Cox Polly Farmer hybrid monster.
 
Jukes said:
One thing lost in this contagious negative group think about CDT is that he is highly competitive and is far from “soft”.

We can argue all day about his ceiling and whether he’s right for us but having this intangible in his kit bag is certainly a positive and will be massive in where he gets to as a player.
Click to expand...
No one’s said he’s soft
 
WCE777 said:
I agree.
I just see this as simple as either ESS or RICH would be the only teams trying to get in front of one another to warrant a trade for pick 2.

Take Duursma at 1, take Sharp at 2 and unless the offer for pick 2 is well overs and we get our desired targets like Sharp and Cumming we stay put.

Pick 2 & 13 for 5 & 6 would be the desired outcome best for WC if Sharp and Cumming are most likely available, but ESS would need to put something else in that deal for us to take it, a mid 2nd round pick would be the premium normally given to extract 2 & 13 so even a F3rd would be fair to WC.

Either way it needs to work for both, mutually agreed trade and mutually agreed players left on the table.
WC will know who RICH are targeting at 3 & 4 so its very simple.
Click to expand...
I'm confused why people think Essendon would want to trade 5 & 6 for 2 & 13, when they want Duursma and we'll likely take him at pick 1.
We aren't getting those picks for pick 2. Pick 1 would be their target.
 
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Dom sheed pocket said:
It’s because we spent years not drafting mids, and finally have the picks to draft an elite mid, but it just so happens to be in the one draft where there isn’t a ready made inside mid considered at very top of open draft.

People are trying to justify why we shouldn’t/won’t take the player almost every draft watcher has as the second best available talent in the open draft.

It’s a thing called denial.
Click to expand...

Denial is a river in Egypt

It's also having the worst midfield in the AFL while simultaneously having the greatest midfield talent since Dustin Martin in Harley Reid, then having the balls to address the problem by:

- Bringing in one delisted brissie reject (no offence Dev)

- Taking a flanker/wingman and unicorn utility with the first 2 picks of the draft while there are proven ready made elite midfielders on the table in Sharp , Cumming ect
 
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