Draft Expert PMBangers 2025 Draft Thread

[theGav56]

He wasn't an obvious pick that high at the time, unreal drafting by Matt Rendell and his team. Apparently part of what sold Danger to the Crows was his commitment to his football, just had a great attitude to go with those A + athletic attributes.

The success of Danger types has led to the Combine testing we see today.

Eh? He was always a high pick. The only negative being completing school

 

[THE_GUN]

3.12 20m and 6.45 2km.

Robey is an October birthday so just turned 18 along with a late starter this year and mentioned he had never done the time trials and things like not taking off on the back foot was new to him and different .

These things would have affected his times and you would think if he was tested again in 6 months that these times would see a decent improvement

 

[txbyhull]

Robey is an October birthday so just turned 18 along with a late starter this year and mentioned he had never done the time trials and things like not taking off on the back foot was new to him and different .

These things would have affected his times and you would think if he was tested again in 6 months that these times would see a decent improvement

I think even simpler than that, if you watch him play he looks a lot better than those times suggest, and that’s more important at the end of the day anyway

 

[PMBangers]

Is Sharp a better fit for the Tigers' midfield (probably with a trade down), being a more defensive type? I assume Hotton will be the speedy midfielder.

Better fit maybe, but not at Pick 3/4/5/6/7/8 or wherever it ends up post bids

 

[pileitinho]

Eh? He was always a high pick. The only negative being completing school

He was a year or so younger than most other picks. He didn't have an outstanding year leading into the draft. It was seen as a flyer pick by Adelaide by most at the time as he really didn't have the runs on the board compared to other prospects. He wasn't even the first picked from the Geelong Falcons that year.

He was in the top 30 prospects the AFL listed that year, but it wasn't as if he was a lock top 10.

Obviously one of the best draft picks of all time.

 

[GWS Goose]

He was a year or so younger than most other picks. He didn't have an outstanding year leading into the draft. It was seen as a flyer pick by Adelaide by most at the time as he really didn't have the runs on the board compared to other prospects. He wasn't even the first picked from the Geelong Falcons that year.

He was in the top 30 prospects the AFL listed that year, but it wasn't as if he was a lock top 10.

Obviously one of the best draft picks of all time.

Mainly because they went a year early on him.

 

[pileitinho]

Mainly because they went a year early on him.

There are threads on here where the Danger pick was pilloried. One post on a "diabolical drafting clanger" thread from 2008 had "Patrick Dangerfield over Bradley Ebert. Alex Rance over Tayte Pears" as two of the worst clangers in a decade.

 

[GWS Goose]

There are threads on here where the Danger pick was pilloried. One post on a "diabolical drafting clanger" thread from 2008 had "Patrick Dangerfield over Bradley Ebert. Alex Rance over Tayte Pears" as two of the worst clangers in a decade.

Proof that it takes years to determine how good a draft went for any given team.
Funny having people grade the draft the day after , essentially based on who got the players that the journos rated

 

[Ura]

Honestly I think that’s the trap of the draft. Thinking that because they are well rated on the day of the draft they develop

The only time your draft number truely matters is on draft day. I really believe the hard work starts when you get players into a professional program.

Players like Robey we can fall in love with because of recency bias which is easy to fall into. I remember being concerned with taking FOS at 2 when he had a subdued final year I. Coates campaign but this year have been super happy with his selection and how his development has gone.

PMBangers how do you try to remove recency bias and I guess even emotion from your ranking process? Just curious

 

[theGav56]

There are threads on here where the Danger pick was pilloried. One post on a "diabolical drafting clanger" thread from 2008 had "Patrick Dangerfield over Bradley Ebert. Alex Rance over Tayte Pears" as two of the worst clangers in a decade.

My memory is that Adelaide was criticised because he was a likely flight risk, not because he wasn't rated

 

[PMBangers]

Honestly I think that’s the trap of the draft. Thinking that because they are well rated on the day of the draft they develop

The only time your draft number truely matters is on draft day. I really believe the hard work starts when you get players into a professional program.

Players like Robey we can fall in love with because of recency bias which is easy to fall into. I remember being concerned with taking FOS at 2 when he had a subdued final year I. Coates campaign but this year have been super happy with his selection and how his development has gone.

PMBangers how do you try to remove recency bias and I guess even emotion from your ranking process? Just curious

Recency bias is fairly easy as i cross check my notes from earlier in the year with what I'm seeing now to get a balanced out view, but I'm pretty brutal in my assessment so don't feel like I'm one to go overboard on a bolter regardless.

The emotional side of it i find pretty easy, i don't know 99% of these kids personally so I'm not invested in them getting drafted, and I don't have an ego big enough to be embarrassed of being wrong with an assessment

 

[pileitinho]

My memory is that Adelaide was criticised because he was a likely flight risk, not because he wasn't rated

Colin Wiseby (the OG draft guy on BF) had him rated 35 overall, which likely was closer to consensus than where he was actually picked.

 

[4tune8]

Is Sharp a better fit for the Tigers' midfield (probably with a trade down), being a more defensive type? I assume Hotton will be the speedy midfielder.

Apologies for jumping in here and I hope I'm not stepping on anyone's toes by offering my opinion.

I think that a pure inside mid is not at the top of our list needs, and I reckon that needs will come into calculations given our draft hand last year.

You probably need a few of those inside extractors at a club with couple for depth (development) We'll be lining up with Prestia (who'll retire end of year) Hopper, Taranto and McAuliffe (depth), then throw in Lalor and Smillie with another in Kellaway, Hotton has very quick and clean hands so he has inside/outside capabilities but would provide that zip with post clearance possessions. It looks like Rioli will be playing further up the ground and Campbell will have some CBA's as well.

I very much doubt that Sharp will be in our sights (could be wrong of course) and we'll be targeting players with positional versatility. Robey and Grijl fit that criteria and should be available at our picks.

 

[GUMBLETRON]

I don't have an ego big enough to be embarrassed of being wrong with an assessment

That's lucky.














(I kid)

 

[Calcium Man]

Recency bias is fairly easy as i cross check my notes from earlier in the year with what I'm seeing now to get a balanced out view, but I'm pretty brutal in my assessment so don't feel like I'm one to go overboard on a bolter regardless.

The emotional side of it i find pretty easy, i don't know 99% of these kids personally so I'm not invested in them getting drafted, and I don't have an ego big enough to be embarrassed of being wrong with an assessment

What about the inverse of that. Could use Robey as the example but XT also fits the bill as someone who’s development over the year has gone from fringe 1st rounder to top
10 pick?

Is that 2nd half of the year improvement a big factor when weighting a potential draftee?

 

[PMBangers]

What about the inverse of that. Could use Robey as the example but XT also fits the bill as someone who’s development over the year has gone from fringe 1st rounder to top
10 pick?

Is that 2nd half of the year improvement a big factor when weighting a potential draftee?

It's a balancing act, generally i can see steady improvement through my notes/ decipher what I'm saying to realise there's consistent themes. XT is a good example where without saying it exactly i was consistently impressed with his athleticism and stopping ability, and then as the year went became more impressed with his ball use.

Everything is more a vibe thing than it is a hard set method I find, particularly for people without access to GPS Data/ full stats

 

[Mofra]

Honestly I think that’s the trap of the draft. Thinking that because they are well rated on the day of the draft they develop

The only time your draft number truely matters is on draft day. I really believe the hard work starts when you get players into a professional program.

Players like Robey we can fall in love with because of recency bias which is easy to fall into. I remember being concerned with taking FOS at 2 when he had a subdued final year I. Coates campaign but this year have been super happy with his selection and how his development has gone.

PMBangers how do you try to remove recency bias and I guess even emotion from your ranking process? Just curious

Recency bias could just be a player showing rapid improvement in the second half of their draft year.

IIRC Clayton Oliver didn't even play in the champs then bolted to pick 4. Callan Ward was a late bolter based on his rate of improvement. Nobody except perhaps Collingwood saw Bont as a top 7 pick, until the Bulldogs took a risk at pick 4.

Some recruiters preference those types, especially if they have a late birthday.

 

[roos_fanatic08]

What’s your knock on Matt LeRay and Onley?

 

[RedmanWasHere]

When do we start draft tipping?

 

[txbyhull]

Just as an aside to a discussion currently happening in the Eagles’ draft thread: how does Sharp compare to other big bodied mids of the past drafts?

Am I right in saying (hyperbole of course) Smillie would be taken ahead of Sharp 100 times out of 100 and would likely be taken by the Eagles at pick 2 had he been available this year?

 

[PMBangers]

What’s your knock on Matt LeRay and Onley?

LeRay was in all honesty and oversight for that tier 4 area, but Onley I've been pretty open about not liking his disposal or defensive work anywhere near enough to draft him, i'm not totally convinced by his work in the contest phase either to view him as a genuine first possession winner at AFL Level, and he actively hates playing other roles

 

[PMBangers]

Just as an aside to a discussion currently happening in the Eagles’ draft thread: how does Sharp compare to other big bodied mids of the past drafts?

Am I right in saying (hyperbole of course) Smillie would be taken ahead of Sharp 100 times out of 100 and would likely be taken by the Eagles at pick 2 had he been available this year?

Too a degree its need dependant but on talent/ AFL Level translation i can't see Sharp being picked ahead 90% of the time

 

[Thunderstruck]

I'd take Sharp 101 times out of 100 ahead of Smillie and I liked Smillie.

 

[bungalow_bill]

And Eagles likely aint bidding on him at 2

So I agree.

Would be a waste of a premium pick as Dean would almost certainly request a trade 2 years in. Eagles couldn't be that silly surely.

 

[bungalow_bill]

Being that Ashcroft was just draft eligible last year he’d clearly be number 1 in this draft

A certainty to be the highest rated player but like Annable wouldn't be bid on with pick 1 and would likely go top 5 as he did in '24.