List Mgmt. 2025 List Management III 📃

[Aphrodite]

Continued from here:-

List Mgmt. - 2025 List Management II 📃

www.bigfooty.com

 

[gab213]

Well i checked your statement that he improved as the season went on. I didnt find that in most key stats. I only checked because you define your argument as factual about Hollands and others as poor opinion.

What do you consider to be 'key stats', because as far as I'm concerned, most are recently invented nonsense from other sports, in the main, like 'metres gained', even 'inside 50s', is a mainly meaningless stat.

 

[azlou]

I think a lot of the time these types end up transforming themselves into guns through sheer determination.

Ollie sought out a speed coach last pre season and made considerable strides in improving his acceleration and top end speed.

Strength in the contest still a bit of an issue and the kid is practically living in the gym this pre season.

Kicking will never be elite but there's no reason to think he won't improve it as much as he's physically capable of.

Cripps has been a similar case. He really only had one major strength when he came into the AFL and that was his strength over the ball/through the hips. He's improved his overhead marking, acceleration, kicking and endurance out of sight. Those characters generally know their weaknesses and spend their off seasons working hard on improving them.

These characters never stop improving as compared to those that coast on talent they often surpass the talented coasters

 

[Doro]

I think Ollie's developing pretty well. He won't be elite , but he'll be a valuable 200 gamer for us. The main issues for mine are his peripheral awareness and his kicking around the corner needs a lot of work, way too many shanks. His gut running gets us out of jail quite a bit.

 

[bradfisher14]

Give it 3-5 years, Ollie will be the best wingman in the AFL. Bookmark this.

 

[JustOneTime]

What do you consider to be 'key stats', because as far as I'm concerned, most are recently invented nonsense from other sports, in the main, like 'metres gained', even 'inside 50s', is a mainly meaningless stat.

I think when a poster mentions facts vs others opinions...the only thing we can corroborate with is a player's data/stats. Stats are worth slightly more than, i'm right in my opinion and its better than yours etc.

You're right that without context and in a micro sample there are useless stats. But lets not dismiss stats can still be useful. Did you see the Moneyball movie. Just about every sports franchise across the world dabble in their view of stats to select/trade players.

Let's take one example of what people might call a stupid stat. Midfielder disposal count. Well in 2025 the top 20 include N Daicos, Bailey Smith, Finn Callaghan, Zak Butters, Merrett, Serong, Brayshaw, Rozee, Neale, Holmes, Bont, Mcluggage, Sheezel, etc...

At the bottom of the averages are players like D Robertson, Jack Carroll, Fyfe, and whole list of no names not developed yet into an impactful player.

Does that stat look like a good indicator of a good midfielder or a bad indicator of a good midfielder.

So context is critical which is what you mean. But it doesnt mean we simply dismiss stats.

 

[gab213]

I think when a poster mentions facts vs others opinions...the only thing we can corroborate with is a player's data/stats. Stats are worth slightly more than, i'm right in my opinion and its better than yours etc.

You're right that without context and in a micro sample there are useless stats. But lets not dismiss stats can still be useful. Did you see the Moneyball movie. Just about every sports franchise across the world dabble in their view of stats to select/trade players.

Let's take one example of what people might call a stupid stat. Midfielder disposal count. Well in 2025 the top 20 include N Daicos, Bailey Smith, Finn Callaghan, Zak Butters, Merrett, Serong, Brayshaw, Rozee, Neale, Holmes, Bont, Mcluggage, Sheezel, etc...

At the bottom of the averages are players like D Robertson, Jack Carroll, Fyfe, and whole list of no names not developed yet into an impactful player.

Does that stat look like a good indicator of a good midfielder or a bad indicator of a good midfielder.

So context is critical which is what you mean. But it doesnt mean we simply dismiss stats.

That's right, context means absolutely anything when quoting any statistical measure; unfortunately, a lot of people don't understand that. I wasn't accusing anybody, just asking a question.

 

[CCurnow3picks]

Give it 3-5 years, Ollie will be the best wingman in the AFL. Bookmark this.

He may well be…has a lot of work to do on his disposal efficiency & defensive skills when he’s pushing back.

I can’t see him ever being one of the best half backs - it’s a role too slanted towards winning defensive ball, excellent disposal & 360 awareness.

Not his natural game in my view.

 

[JustOneTime]

That's right, context means absolutely anything when quoting any statistical measure; unfortunately, a lot of people don't understand that. I wasn't accusing anybody, just asking a question.

All good. I think eye test is also a good thing but more problematic. Years ago it felt everytime Sam Mitchell picked up the ball across half back for a strong hawthorn side it resulted in an inside 50 and a score (goal/point). It got to the stage of him picking up the ball and id go 'here comes a score'.

Is that a reliable thought or an over-reaction.... Many supporters have varying ranges of what i described that i personally see as wrong. E.g. A lot of here backed McGovern in on the eye test that he is/was a good 'interceptor'. I was the other way thinking he is terrible at it but just a fast runner than closed that gap half the time and missed the other half as he is in fact simply fast and not a good reader of the flight/play like a Haynes. This debate is dead now about Mcgovern as he is simply fast. But it was a live debate 3-4 years ago.

I'm waffling but here is the link to Hollands. When i watch Hollands half back games even the 23+ disposal games off half back, I'm not yet getting any insight to the hurt factor of Sam Mitchell. Or Pendles....or really other elite quarterbacks. When H Young played back there as a very young second year player, younger than Ollie, i went, oh, they have found one there in that role.

The eye test is saying Hollands is dedicated and workmanlike. Carlton in the current model of the game (turnover goals being dominant) need an out and out elite half back.

My eye test is saying wing for him. I think he can go from workmanlike to better than that in that role based on his personal traits he is displaying on field.

 

[teddy-hopkins]

I think when a poster mentions facts vs others opinions...the only thing we can corroborate with is a player's data/stats. Stats are worth slightly more than, i'm right in my opinion and its better than yours etc.

You're right that without context and in a micro sample there are useless stats. But lets not dismiss stats can still be useful. Did you see the Moneyball movie. Just about every sports franchise across the world dabble in their view of stats to select/trade players.

Let's take one example of what people might call a stupid stat. Midfielder disposal count. Well in 2025 the top 20 include N Daicos, Bailey Smith, Finn Callaghan, Zak Butters, Merrett, Serong, Brayshaw, Rozee, Neale, Holmes, Bont, Mcluggage, Sheezel, etc...

At the bottom of the averages are players like D Robertson, Jack Carroll, Fyfe, and whole list of no names not developed yet into an impactful player.

Does that stat look like a good indicator of a good midfielder or a bad indicator of a good midfielder.

So context is critical which is what you mean. But it doesnt mean we simply dismiss stats.

Our sport is pretty subjective as opposed to balls and strikes in baseball. That extends to Stats.

Effective disposals definition:

Effective Kick​

A kick is considered effective if:

• It travels at least 40 metres to a 50/50 contest or better, or
• It hits a teammate on the full (i.e., is marked or gathered cleanly), or
• It results in a clear advantage (e.g., allows the team to advance into a scoring position).

Effective Handball​

A handball is effective if:

• It reaches a teammate who is not immediately under pressure, and
• It allows play to continue positively (e.g., keeps possession or leads to an attacking play).

So a statistician (who could be a work experience kid) is making hundreds of judgement calls a game and the stat sheet doesn't show if a player ignored 2 teammates on their own to blast it 45m down the line to a contest.

We're stuck with the eye test for that.

 

[JustOneTime]

Our sport is pretty subjective as opposed to balls and strikes in baseball. That extends to Stats.

Effective disposals definition:

Effective Kick​

A kick is considered effective if:

• It travels at least 40 metres to a 50/50 contest or better, or
• It hits a teammate on the full (i.e., is marked or gathered cleanly), or
• It results in a clear advantage (e.g., allows the team to advance into a scoring position).

Effective Handball​

A handball is effective if:

• It reaches a teammate who is not immediately under pressure, and
• It allows play to continue positively (e.g., keeps possession or leads to an attacking play).

So a statistician (who could be a work experience kid) is making hundreds of judgement calls a game and the stat sheet doesn't show if a player ignored 2 teammates on their own to blast it 45m down the line to a contest.

We're stuck with the eye test for that.

Good point.

I take your eye test which we do need plus i take the stats. As a basic example; my eye says N Daicos is effective and that is corroborated by a number of stats like Disposal count and many others.

Funnily we diss the stats but really it is the failed eye test that provide many more failures for mine when reading this forum.

Classic example is Arr0w. Rated Boyd highly and best 22 and said JSoS had no shot playing in defence (easy to find his posts on JSoS if you want to search). All this based on his eye test. Funny that so many trusted his draft feedback like he was a expert.

 

[The Bighouse]

Good point.

I take your eye test which we do need plus i take the stats. As a basic example; my eye says N Daicos is effective and that is corroborated by a number of stats like Disposal count and many others.

Funnily we diss the stats but really it is the failed eye test that provide many more failures for mine when reading this forum.

Classic example is Arr0w. Rated Boyd highly and best 22 and said JSoS had no shot playing in defence (easy to find his posts on JSoS if you want to search). All this based on his eye test. Funny that so many trusted his draft feedback like he was an expert.

Boyd was showing signs of being at the level but foot injuries and then whatever TF happened to him last off-season put him in the average category.

Even Kingy was big on Boyd, when he was an elite kick.

 

[JustOneTime]

Boyd was showing signs of being at the level but foot injuries and then whatever TF happened to him last off-season put him in the average category.

Even Kingy was big on Boyd, when he was an elite kick.

Yes to a good kick but rebound run and run to receive is poor. His number of kicks per game to warrant the quarterback role puts question marks on him. Then they played him lockdown so he doesnt use his best weapon much.

All a touch confusing on that guy. Maybe no tank otherwise i dont know why he doesnt demand the rebound kicker role. Cunners vibes.

 

[The Return of the Paf]

Give it 3-5 years, Ollie will be the best wingman in the AFL. Bookmark this.

And Pinocchio will be a real boy, one day, too.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

Only because of number of games played (Chesser has had surgery earlier in the year and is 100% now). His skill level is next level; his running ability is next level (state middle distance runner) and has genuine speed.

They wanted him big time to improve our running power and delivery.

I love Chesser’s attributes but he strung something like 16 consecutive games together in his 3rd season (same amount of seasons as Hollands this year) and showed absolutely stuff all.
Hollands is a limited player but is tracking fine. Chesser has much more exciting attributes but also hasn’t proven that he is better than Hollands.

They both need to improve and if they do they will both be best 22

 

[Kernafides]

I think we have got a few upgrades coming into the team.

Chesser and Newman get a run before Ollie and apparently there is another bloke by the name of Jagga who starts somewhere near the square. Acres gets in before Ollie as well, because he can catch it and has strength/power.

Ollie will be fringe if we can keep our players on the park.

Chesser the shiny new toy with no runs on the board. Let's keep the powder dry and see if he can actually establish himself.

 

[tarczonandjane]

Dont know why people like to bag Ollie. He is the least of our issues. What else do you all want, he runs all day and busts his gut. Maybe his skills are not elite, but we need these types of guys. Would rather someone that busts a gut than someone with all the talent in the world and does nothing.

Cmon what are you all seeing........

I agree Ollie should be on a wing and made to run two ways.

I agree with all you say Fev.

But opinions around here are fickle. JSOS went from being spoken about as future captain material to being a self obsessed loner who was bad for club morale within the space of about 8 weeks.

 

[Soapy V]

I dont think its really going to hurt his development one way or the other. Hes only played the 2 roles. There is some overlap between them. Whatever the ratio is he'll probably spend at least some time in both.

I think he plays where is best for the team. And I think we have better options as half back distributors, hence wing for me.

This is where I struggle with some people's logic.

People are critical of Ollies ball use yet want him on a Wing where there is lot more angles, turning, kicking around corners to deliver it inside 50 yet are worried about him running straight and delivering off HB?

One of our biggest issues last season was delivery inside fwd 50.

Ollie last year had a disposal efficency of 75% which is above average and his best in a season. His kicking efficency went from 60% to 70%. His possession avg increased by 5 disposals a game. Metres gained increased by over 150m per game. Turnovers the same as before

Now, stats aren't everything but it seems to go against what many seem to be pushing

I don't know how good Ollie will be and he has some glaring weaknesses he needs to address but I feel many comments aren't based on any reality. For many he seems to be the new whipping boy which I hate

 

[goreds]

This is where I struggle with some people's logic.

People are critical of Ollies ball use yet want him on a Wing where there is lot more angles, turning, kicking around corners to deliver it inside 50 yet are worried about him running straight and delivering off HB?

One of our biggest issues last season was delivery inside fwd 50.

Ollie last year had a disposal efficency of 75% which is above average and his best in a season. His kicking efficency went from 60% to 70%. His possession avg increased by 5 disposals a game. Metres gained increased by over 150m per game. Turnovers the same as before

Now, stats aren't everything but it seems to go against what many seem to be pushing

I don't know how good Ollie will be and he has some glaring weaknesses he needs to address but I feel many comments aren't based on any reality. For many he seems to be the new whipping boy which I hate

Hey Soap, great that this discussion is being had in November and not in April!

I agree with your point about HB v wing, the wing should have better than average kicks who can kick around corners and have the ability to change direction at speed, both of which Ollie doesn't have, IMHO.

His stats went up playing off HB but as a rebounding defender, they need to be more damaging than a 20m kick sideways.

I've not rated him since his first year, the main reason is that I expect my wingers to be elite by foot or elite in the air, that's a minimum for a quality side in my eyes. I suppose that's the main issue, quality side, which we are not.

I'm a big fan of Chesser and he was definitely pursued by our recruiters from a while out (early in the season), clearly to fix our kicking issues off the right-hand side of the ground. That leaves Ollie with only a HB (right-hand side) spot which might be filled with a better kicker or a stronger defender, either way, I think Ollie will be on the fringes if we have a full list to pick from, IMHO.

I think it will be Ollie v Ollie for that HB spot and I know where my money is going!

 

[Soapy V]

Hey Soap, great that this discussion is being had in November and not in April!

I agree with your point about HB v wing, the wing should have better than average kicks who can kick around corners and have the ability to change direction at speed, both of which Ollie doesn't have, IMHO.

His stats went up playing off HB but as a rebounding defender, they need to be more damaging than a 20m kick sideways.

I've not rated him since his first year, the main reason is that I expect my wingers to be elite by foot or elite in the air, that's a minimum for a quality side in my eyes. I suppose that's the main issue, quality side, which we are not.

I'm a big fan of Chesser and he was definitely pursued by our recruiters from a while out (early in the season), clearly to fix our kicking issues off the right-hand side of the ground. That leaves Ollie with only a HB (right-hand side) spot which might be filled with a better kicker or a stronger defender, either way, I think Ollie will be on the fringes if we have a full list to pick from, IMHO.

I think it will be Ollie v Ollie for that HB spot and I know where my money is going!

I have no idea where he will end up or how good he will be. I just find some comments illogical

Ollie for me has obvious flaws in kicking and awareness. They can be fixed. Will they? Only time will tell

I am not sure on any player or best 23 at the moment. I am hoping with improved development, new standards and game style we will see a number of players really improve and step up

I am really hoping names like Wilson, O'Keefe, Jagga, Cowan, Moir etc step up and are best 23 next year. We won't improve if they don't

I don't care who plays or where. I just want a good side that will win games

What I do see is finally competition for many spots especially around running positions

 

[Lukeblueboy]

I think all Chesser needs to do is get fit(which I believe he is now) and stay fit and the rest will take care of itself imo
Could be an absolute gun I reckon

 

[carlton_99]

Chris Cavanaugh reporting that Carlton have interest in Geelong VFL small forward Tobyn Murray. He has toured our facilities, completed testing and done an interview with the Blues. Also mentioned that Port are interested and that he is set to meet with them as well.

 

[Bfevola]

Why another small forward ? We need KPP depth Carlton.

 

[Soapy V]

I think all Chesser needs to do is get fit(which I believe he is now) and stay fit and the rest will take care of itself imo
Could be an absolute gun I reckon

If you look at what we have recruited, if many of Chesser, Florent, Ollie, Wilson, Lucas, Carroll, Cottrell, Charleson, Ison can step up we all of a sudden have options around the flanks. We have run

Add this to a fit Walsh, Moir, Lord and Jagga in the middle. It's a completely different look and style

 

[Soapy V]

Chris Cavanaugh reporting that Carlton have interest in Geelong VFL small forward Tobyn Murray. He has toured our facilities, completed testing and done an interview with the Blues. Also mentioned that Port are interested and that he is set to meet with them as well.

Knows where the goals are

 

[Beer n Skittles]

Watching his highlights Ollie Hollands looks like a HBF to me