20th AFL Team

[Run n Spread]

On the subject of interstate vs international growth (if you're assuming interstate migration being better as footy fans), Darwin doesn't fare well there either.

The Muval Report captures interstate migration stats.

In the latest report (covering 2024), the ACT had the highest rate, with 1.2 people coming from interstate for every person leaving.

The NT has the lowest, with 0.8 people coming for every person leaving. Darwin itself is lower again at 0.72.

The three positive areas of Sydney in terms of internal migration were all in Western Sydney.

View attachment 2483680
This is just a single-year snapshot, but the report says Darwin is consistently poor.

"Greater Darwin has faced a consistent downturn, sliding further into negative migration territory year after year."

TLDR; Darwin's (relatively low) population growth isn't coming from interstate.

Interestingly, in 2024, more than 50% more Melbournians than Sydneysiders moved to Canberra. Bodes well for a premade footy-supporting population.

You've just contradicted yourself here.
On one hand growth and projected population growth is considered essential for team 20. Yet now you argue the fact footy loving Melbournians are moving to Canberra should work in their favour.
Almost like passion for the sport and a proven track record should count.
In which case Darwin and the NT leave Canberra in the dust

 

[Canberra Pear]

You've just contradicted yourself here.
On one hand growth and projected population growth is considered essential for team 20. Yet now you argue the fact footy loving Melbournians are moving to Canberra should work in their favour.
Almost like passion for the sport and a proven track record should count.
In which case Darwin and the NT leave Canberra in the dust

Not sure you understand what a contradiction is.

Strong population growth definitely strengthens a bid. The fact that a large portion of that population growth already follows footy is a bonus.

 

[____]

Slightly off topic to the thread but its befuddling to still see GCS play home games in Darwin.

Game entering a boom period on the gold coast with it producing quality young talent, rising junior participation, growing crowds and a team perhaps good enough to win the next premiership but thay are still taking home games 3500 kms away.

Can only think there is a contract they have to honour?

Otherwise, its baffling.

My understanding is 2026 is the last year of the contract.

I'm hoping common sense prevails and the Suns are playing all their home games at Carrara from 2027 onwards.

 

[Run n Spread]

Slightly off topic to the thread but its befuddling to still see GCS play home games in Darwin.

Game entering a boom period on the gold coast with it producing quality young talent, rising junior participation, growing crowds and a team perhaps good enough to win the next premiership but thay are still taking home games 3500 kms away.

Can only think there is a contract they have to honour?

Otherwise, its baffling.

They basically do that so they can encompass that as part of their academy.
That territory should be left to the NT team as an academy zone. Would be insanely competitive as a result

 

[Canberra Pear]

They basically do that so they can encompass that as part of their academy.
That territory should be left to the NT team as an academy zone. Would be insanely competitive as a result

Would they? How much does the NT academy contribute to the Suns now? Wouldn't be enough to base a whole team on.

 

[Run n Spread]

Would they? How much does the NT academy contribute to the Suns now? Wouldn't be enough to base a whole team on.

You wouldn't. Just like no team bases an entire list off academies. Lots of talent in the NT

 

[Canberra Pear]

You wouldn't. Just like no team bases an entire list off academies. Lots of talent in the NT

Obviously not an entire list, but the NT would struggle more to bring in interstate players, so it would have to rely pretty heavily on NT player. And at the moment, there aren't even enough in the AFL to make half a list.

 

[Rob]

You wouldn't. Just like no team bases an entire list off academies. Lots of talent in the NT

Lol, no there's not. Less than 1% of the entire country's population lives there.

 

[The Educator]

Lol, no there's not. Less than 1% of the entire country's population lives there.

Exactly, there is nowhere near the volume of players

I am suprised there is apparently 18
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_VFL/AFL_and_AFL_Women's_players_from_the_Northern_Territory

THe point is that you need an extra 26 players to want to go an live on Darwin and have a horific flight schedule ....at least an extra 26 players given many from the NT would be lured else where

 

[Canberra Pear]

Exactly, there is nowhere near the volume of players

I am suprised there is apparently 18
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_VFL/AFL_and_AFL_Women's_players_from_the_Northern_Territory

THe point is that you need an extra 26 players to want to go an live on Darwin and have a horific flight schedule ....at least an extra 26 players given many from the NT would be lured else where

And five of those 18 are former players that just haven't been updated properly on the page.

 

[Rob]

Exactly, there is nowhere near the volume of players

I am suprised there is apparently 18
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_VFL/AFL_and_AFL_Women's_players_from_the_Northern_Territory

THe point is that you need an extra 26 players to want to go an live on Darwin and have a horific flight schedule ....at least an extra 26 players given many from the NT would be lured else where

Not exactly laden with A graders you can build a list around either. And that's assuming they'd want to play in the NT, there would be a few that would probably want to play elsewhere.

In short, a vast majority of the list would need to be imported.

 

[hampton]

An NT afl team makes zero sense and anyone that's proposing it has no commercial acumen and is wasting their breath and the time of others reading and listening to it. It would be akin to the NFL plonking a team into Wyoming.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

An NT afl team makes zero sense and anyone that's proposing it has no commercial acumen and is wasting their breath and the time of others reading and listening to it. It would be akin to the NFL plonking a team into Wyoming.

You're arguing against one dude, I don't think anyone else is agreeing with them yet you're talking like you're addressing hundreds of people

 

[hampton]

You're arguing against one dude, I don't think anyone else is agreeing with them yet you're talking like you're addressing hundreds of people

It's come up enough times in here by different people and shown up in podcasts and youtube videos that it seems there's a wave of stupidity around the topic.

 

[Coolangatta]

It's come up enough times in here by different people and shown up in podcasts and youtube videos that it seems there's a wave of stupidity around the topic.

Absolutely. It’s the most popular choice for the 20th team among the public and casuals.

Rarely do you come across people who have put much thought into it.

Dillon doesn’t inspire much confidence in me as CEO either so I doubt he has.

Although, the AFL loves $$$ so you’d think the NT would be their least preferred option unless they don’t have to pay for it.

They already said they expect teams to pay for themselves eventually.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

It's come up enough times in here by different people and shown up in podcasts and youtube videos that it seems there's a wave of stupidity around the topic.

Other than a few radio figures needing to fill airtime, nobody has given it any serious thought since the 2019 feasibility study showed how much investment it would take to run a club. You're yelling at maybe 3 radio dudes among an AFL community of hundreds of people effectively brainstorming out loud while on air and taking it way too seriously.

 

[Coolangatta]

Other than a few radio figures needing to fill airtime, nobody has given it any serious thought since the 2019 feasibility study showed how much investment it would take to run a club. You're yelling at maybe 3 radio dudes among an AFL community of hundreds of people effectively brainstorming out loud while on air and taking it way too seriously.

Well, time will tell, but I think his point was more that it's popular with the fans:

"If Tasmania is No.19, where should AFL team No.20 be?

Darwin – 55.3%
3rd West Australian team – 15.9%
Canberra – 14%
3rd South Australian team – 10.3%
3rd Queensland team – 2.8%
3rd New South Wales team – 1.7%"

That said, I don't know how many people actually completed this survey, and the AFL is far from an organisation that does what's popular. I know wildcard round's gone down like a lead balloon.

 

[Run n Spread]

Well, time will tell, but I think his point was more that it's popular with the fans:

"If Tasmania is No.19, where should AFL team No.20 be?

Darwin – 55.3%
3rd West Australian team – 15.9%
Canberra – 14%
3rd South Australian team – 10.3%
3rd Queensland team – 2.8%
3rd New South Wales team – 1.7%"

That said, I don't know how many people actually completed this survey, and the AFL is far from an organisation that does what's popular. I know wildcard round's gone down like a lead balloon.

Well there you go the people have spoken.
The AFL existing for 130 years is built on passion and a love of the game.
Who is the most successful club this century?
Geelong a team that was in a remote town (long way to get to before planes and cars) I bet no one was carrying on about population predictions in those days.
It was a footy mad town that has sustained itself for over a century has players busting to get there and is continually successful.
Strong foundations in place.

 

[Canberra Pear]

Well, time will tell, but I think his point was more that it's popular with the fans:

"If Tasmania is No.19, where should AFL team No.20 be?

Darwin – 55.3%
3rd West Australian team – 15.9%
Canberra – 14%
3rd South Australian team – 10.3%
3rd Queensland team – 2.8%
3rd New South Wales team – 1.7%"

That said, I don't know how many people actually completed this survey, and the AFL is far from an organisation that does what's popular. I know wildcard round's gone down like a lead balloon.

And 97 people voted for the NT in this poll, too.

Though the poll has been open for 2.5 years. It'd be interesting to see how many of those original votes would still vote for the NT now the numbers have been rehashed a fair bit.

 

[Canberra Pear]

Well there you go the people have spoken.
The AFL existing for 130 years is built on passion and a love of the game.
Who is the most successful club this century?
Geelong a team that was in a remote town (long way to get to before planes and cars) I bet no one was carrying on about population predictions in those days.
It was a footy mad town that has sustained itself for over a century has players busting to get there and is continually successful.
Strong foundations in place.

When the Cats were founded, Melbourne was only six times the size of Geelong. Melbourne is currently 36 times the size of Darwin.

Geelong was the closest sizeable population centre to Melbourne. There was also a train between the two cities (and ferries).

Comparing Geelong's early remoteness and Darwin's current remoteness is a bit of a stretch.

 

[Rob]

And 97 people voted for the NT in this poll, too.

Though the poll has been open for 2.5 years. It'd be interesting to see how many of those original votes would still vote for the NT now the numbers have been rehashed a fair bit.

I voted for the NT, not because I thought that's where it should be, but where I thought it was most likely to happen. The reality is that it's the sort of project that the government would throw tens of millions at.

 

[Canberra Pear]

I voted for the NT, not because I thought that's where it should be, but where I thought it was most likely to happen. The reality is that it's the sort of project that the government would throw tens of millions at.

Understandable logic, but I still think the necessary number was too high to be likely.

Do you still think that's the case? The NT Govt seems focused on bigger issues now.

 

[RedV3x]

The reality is that it's the sort of project that the government would throw tens of millions at.

A government might spend on this project, but would successive governments continue with the commitment?

 

[Chip Scab1]

An NT afl team makes zero sense and anyone that's proposing it has no commercial acumen and is wasting their breath and the time of others reading and listening to it. It would be akin to the NFL plonking a team into Wyoming.

lol, night games would be fresh Nov-Feb. Love Wyoming, Jackson Hole is the best skiing in the world. You'd get players wanting to go there as the tax rate is 0.


I found the likely location for the Home Ground...

 

[Rob]

Understandable logic, but I still think the necessary number was too high to be likely.

Do you still think that's the case? The NT Govt seems focused on bigger issues now.

Yeah probably less likely now. Canberra seems to be a bit more organised now than it was a couple of years ago too.

But I think we're a long way from team 20 regardless. Maybe the talk will pick up more once Tassie's entry is confirmed.